Last week I debuted the Best Bets column, a collection of two to four games that I’ll suggest as potential money winners. While we do our weekly picks of every game I’m starting this based on the theory that there’s no way I’d ever bet on every game because most of the point spreads are actually quite accurate.

Last week I nailed the over in San Diego vs New Orleans. I had that almost hit at halftime as both teams broke 30, easily clearing the 45.5 Las Vegas line.

I also hit on the New York Giants as a 2.5 point underdog against Pittsburgh. The game was closer than I expected and the Giants almost squandered the opportunity, but in the end it was the Giants defense – and an injured long-snapper that carried the Giants to a win, both straight up and against the spread.

I missed on my expectation that the Bengals would cover the 9.5 point spread against Houston, in the process hopefully learning a valuable lesson: when a team is as bad as Cincinnati they can lose to any other team, no matter how bad, regardless of the spread.

Still, I’ll take 2-1. If you do that every week you’ll end up a winner in Vegas. This week’s spreads are a little trickier, again using the Caesar’s/Hilton line at www.vegas.com/gaming:

1. New England vs Indianapolis: Over 44
It’s not as big a game as Colts-Patriots battles have been the last four or five years, but it still could help shape the 2008 playoffs. In the last four weeks New England has scored 30, 10, 41 and 23 points. During the same stretch, Indianapolis has scored 31, 31, 14 and 21. Both teams have an outlier in there, but both teams are playing better offensively and both are struggling on defense. Bob Sanders is supposed to be coming back for the Colts, which should help them, but I still expect this to be more of a shootout than a defensive struggle.

2. Oakland (+3) vs Atlanta
The Falcons have been a surprisingly solid team after last year’s disastrous season. That’s been powered by the arm of Matt Ryan and the legs of Michael Turner. And some of that will continue this weekend. But quietly, Sam Baker has been one of the keys. His absence with back issues will hurt both the run and the pass. And the Falcons, while 3-0 at home, are 1-3 on the road. The one win was an impressive victory over Green Bay at Lambeau Field. But I expect this cross-country trip to end up with Oakland not only beating the spread but winning straight up as well.

3. Jacksonville (-7.5) at Cincinnati
I made the mistake of betting with the Bengals this week. I fix that mistake this week, picking the Jaguars to demolish the -7.5 spread. The Bengals are atrocious and the Jaguars are desperate, having gotten off to a surprisingly terrible start. I’d probably take the over as well, considering I could see Jacksonville eclipsing the 39 point Vegas line by themselves.

4. St. Louis (+3) vs Arizona
The Cardinals are much improved this season but they are 1-3 on the road. St. Louis isn’t as good as the teams Arizona has lost to but in the last three weeks the Rams have given up 23, 14 and 17 points. If the Rams can hold the Cardinals in that range of points – no small feat with against a team fielding Larry Fitzgerald, an angry Anquan Boldin, Kurt Warner, et al – they’ll have a real opportunity to make it three wins in four games under Jim Haslett.