Derrick Ward signed with Tampa Bay Monday night, leaving the New York Giants and establishing himself as the most Buccaneers’ most likely top rushing option for 2009.

Many fantasy writers are understandably excited about the prospect of Ward adding to his carry numbers in 2009. And rightfully so – the guy broke the 1,000 yard mark as a backup in 2008 in just 182 carries.

I’m not here to rain on anyone’s parade. I too expect him to be a solid fantasy back in 2009. But I wouldn’t expect the reincarnation of Michael Turner.

There are four main reasons I don’t expect him to do so. The first is simple: 1,700 yard, 17 touchdown seasons just don’t come around that often.

After that, though, there are still a few reasons to think twice before making him a first or second round pick.

1) He’s still in line for a timeshare: I expect Ward to be the main guy for the Bucs in 09, but the team still has Cadillac Williams and, more importantly, Earnest Graham on the roster. Graham is no slouch and, with the trend being toward running back-by-committee in the NFL these days, I think it’s likely that he will cut into Ward’s carries to some degree.

2) The Bucs have a difficult schedule ahead of them: Half of the team’s games are against teams that were in the upper eschelon of the league against the run as measured by fantasy points allowed in 2008 (according to PuntingBaxter.com, which is written by a fantasy football freelance writer) and five more were against teams with middle-of-the-pack run defenses. It’s hard to extrapolate what 2009 will bring using 2008 numbers, but assuming that many of the top tier defenses will stay that way this year indicates that Ward will have tough sledding a good chunk of the season.

3) Who’s tossing the pig: Tampa Bay has some offensive weapons in franchised free agent wide receiver Antonio “I could be great, but I also could get arrested” Bryant and the newly-acquired Kellen “I’m a Soldier” Winslow Jr. But the team also has a putrid quarterback situation right now. The Bucs appear to have no interest in re-signing Jeff Garcia. So a failed attempt to acquire Jay Cutler from Denver leaves them with Luke McCown reportedly as the starting signal caller. Even if McCown does well, his lack of experience likely means opponents will key on stopping the run and force McCown to win games through the air in 2009.

In summary, Ward is a good back and he’ll likely have a good season. But keep your expectations realistic when planning for your drafts this season.