The latest big time trade rumor making the rounds in the NFL is that Julius Peppers will go to the Patriots, in exchange for the 34th pick in this year’s draft, which the Patriots acquired from the Chiefs for Matt Cassel and Mike Vrabel.

Peppers, who has been with the Carolina Panthers since the 2002 season, expressed his desire to leave the team earlier this offseason, and go to a team that features a 3-4 defense.  The team responded by tagging him as their franchise player.

On the surface, the move might make sense–the Panthers get rid of a disgruntled player, and get something back; Peppers goes to a perennial contender that plays the 3-4 defense he thinks will better suit him; and the Patriots get a big name pass rusher.

Digging in, though, the deal doesn’t really make sense to anyone.

From the Panthers perspective, it seems like they aren’t getting much for a former All-Pro player who had 14.5 sacks in 2008.  In 2008, the Chiefs tagged Jared Allen as their franchise player, when he was coming off of a 15.5 sack All-Pro season.  The Minnesota Vikings traded the Chiefs a 1st round pick, two 3rd round picks, and swapped spots in the 6th round to obtain Allen.  For the Panthers to get significantly less for Peppers seems ridiculous.

The Patriots, while not necessarily giving up a ton, would be getting a player that would likely be looking to make more per season than their star quarterback, Tom Brady–who has repeatedly taken contracts considered less than market price for the good of the team.  Bringing in a high priced defender might upset that balance with Brady.

Additionally, the Patriots have tried bringing in bigger name defensive players to play OLB twice before, in Roosevelt Colvin and Adalius Thomas.  Colvin never lived up to expectations, and Thomas has to be considered a bust so far, given the price and fanfare for bringing him in.  While that’s not a guarantee that Peppers wouldn’t live up to expectations, it is surprising that they’re willing to take that chance again–especially given their lesser name, team first mentality.

Finally, one has to wonder what Peppers is thinking, trying to force his way to a 3-4 defense.  His physical size and speed make him an ideal fit for DE in a 4-3 alignment.  He reportedly wants to play OLB in the 3-4, possibly after seeing the success of DeMarcus Ware and Shawne Merriman.  However, Peppers outweighs both of those players–Ware by about 25 pounds, and Merriman by about 10-15–and one has to wonder if some of Merriman’s freakish early success was aided by illegal substances.

Peppers has never been in a position of frequently playing an OLB type role in the NFL, and some scouts have said they don’t think he would be as effective in the role, given the need to be able to drop into coverage on some plays.  Maybe he could prove those critics wrong–or maybe he could turn himself into a part time player that will face being cut early in his next big contract when his play doesn’t match his pay.

In the end, the trade would probably put the Patriots right back at the top of the list for Super Bowl contenders (not that they were very far off the list already), but one has to wonder if the potential downside of this deal could outweigh the possible benefits all around?

Time will tell–if the deal actually happens.