Okay, yeah, I dropped the ball in week two. Instead of pretending to bet on the NFL I went out of town for the weekend.

So I stand at 2-2 after splitting my week one bets. The Vegas guys usually do an amazing job of setting the pointspreads. So I’ll probably regret writing this by about 8 p.m. But I think there is some money to be made today. Here are my thoughts on week three. Lines from www.vegas.com.

1. Indianapolis (+3) over Arizona
Okay, Arizona gave up the most passing touchdowns in the league last year. They’re on pace to do so again this year. They’re playing against Peyton Manning, Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne. And, while the Colts run defense is terrible, they defend the pass pretty well. And you get points? Yes, the Colts could well be somewhat worn down from the hot Miami game. But I think Manning will toss the ball all over the field tonight. I have been unimpressed with the Cardinals so far and I think the Colts win this one straight up.

2. Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Under 37
Cincinnati’s defense appears to be a little better than expected. But this pick mostly stems from the fact that I dont’ expect the Bengals to get much of anything off of an angry Steelers team coming off a loss in a game that shouldn’t have been close. If the Bengals can keep the Steelers in the 20s I don’t think there is any way this game goes over the number.

3. Pittsburgh (-3.5) over Cincinnati
Well, I guess if I say Cincy isn’t going to get much off of Pittsburgh it should leave open the strong possibility that the Steelers can cover the 3.5 spread.I don’t expect this to be an utter blowout. But I do think the Steelers win comfortably, perhaps in the 17-3 or 20-6 range. I’ve been less impressed by Pittsburgh than I expected to be so far, but despite an impressive showing last week I need to see more from Cincinnati before I can call myself a believer.

4. Carolina at Dallas: Over 47.5
If you got to Vegas earlier in the week you could have gotten this game at closer to 45 or 45.5. I don’t think it matters. Dallas’ offense should get the number into the 30s, with or without Marion Barber III. The only thing that worries me about this number is that both teams’ running games are so strong the clock might never stop running. But I expect both offenses to pile up big plays in the run game and a final score looking something like 34-20.

5. Green Bay (-6.5) over St. Louis
Yep, I’m going deep this week. I believe Green Bay is better than they’ve played so far, even with a struggling and battered offensive line. I believe that Steve Spagnuolo is a good coach who will eventually make some progress in St. Louis. But I also believe he is coaching a team dramatically lacking in talent. After a catchless game at home against Cincy, Greg Jennings will explode on the turf in St. Louis for a huge game. And the Packers will remind everybody why they were one of the division favorites when the season started.