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Well, for better or for worse the 2010 Hall of Fame inductees have been named. The debates over the merit of those inductees are taking place on other articles on this site.
Now, as per normal, it’s time for us to start looking ahead to next towards 2011.
Many great candidates – Shannon Sharpe, Cris Carter, Andre Reed, Tim Brown, Dermontti Dawson, Charles Haley, and Richard Dent, among others – were held over for at least another year.
Meanwhile the 2011 crop brings several more first time nominees. The most oft-mentioned of that crew is Deion Sanders, the brash, trash-talking cornerback who played in Super Bowls for Dallas and San Francisco after being drafted by Atlanta in 1989. In his first year of eligibility he could join three other top five picks from that 1989 draft in the Hall – Troy Aikman, Derrick Thomas and Barry Sanders.
A trio of upper echelon running backs in Marshall Faulk, Curtis Martin and Jerome Bettis also will take their first turns in front of the Hall voters. Each is in the top 10 all-time leading rushers and both Faulk and Bettis have Super Bowl rings.
Among offensive linemen Willie Roaf gains eligibility.
The list would have been even more crowded if Priest Holmes and Junior Seau hadn’t changed their minds on retiring after 2005. But there’s plenty of competition for slots in the Hall again next year.
Do any of these guys make it on their first go-around? Or do the voters make this collection of players, which is good but not quite as star-studded as this year’s Emmitt Smith/Jerry Rice class, wait while clearing some of the logjam that has collected in recent years?
As always, we’re looking forward to seeing your thoughts. But first, here’s ours:
Looking back quickly at 2010, we only actually nailed two of the inductees–the two most obvious inductees in several years in Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith. One of our picks (Paul Tagliabue) didn’t even make the finalist list, while the other two (Dermontti Dawson and Shannon Sharpe) did make the final cut to 10, but not the final five.
So, here’s the list of 2010 Pro Football Hall of Fame Finalists to not be elected:
Tim Brown – Wide Receiver/Kick Returner – 1988-2003 Los Angeles/Oakland Raiders, 2004 Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Cris Carter – Wide Receiver – 1987-89 Philadelphia Eagles, 1990-2001 Minnesota Vikings, 2002 Miami Dolphins
Don Coryell – Coach – 1973-77 St. Louis Cardinals, 1978-1986 San Diego Chargers
Roger Craig – Running Back – 1983-1990 San Francisco 49ers, 1991 Los Angeles Raiders, 1992-93 Minnesota Vikings
Dermonti Dawson – Center – 1988-2000 Pittsburgh Steelers
Richard Dent – Defensive End – 1983-1993, 1995 Chicago Bears, 1994 San Francisco 49ers, 1996 Indianapolis Colts, 1997 Philadelphia Eagles
Charles Haley – Defensive End/Linebacker – 1986-1991, 1999 San Francisco 49ers, 1992-96 Dallas Cowboys
Cortez Kennedy – Defensive Tackle – 1990-2000 Seattle Seahawks
Andre Reed – Wide Receiver – 1985-1999 Buffalo Bills, 2000 Washington Redskins
Shannon Sharpe – Tight End – 1990-99, 2002-03 Denver Broncos, 2000-01 Baltimore Ravens
Making the final ten along with Sharpe and Dawson were Dent, Kennedy and Reed.
Given that only one finalist from 2009 did not make the list in 2010 (Tagliabue), and I think those were for some special circumstances, we’re going to operate under the assumption that all 10 players/coaches will make the finalist list again in 2011–the only name that gives me any pause from that list is Don Coryell.
That leaves five open spots for semifinalists from 2010, or newly eligible players.
Realistically, I think all five of the first time eligible players mentioned above have a shot at being finalists–although I don’t think that all five will, unless Coryell falls off the list. Realistically, I see three of them making the finalist list for sure–Deion Sanders, Willie Roaf, and Marshall Faulk.
I give the edge to Faulk over Martin and Bettis due to his superior all-purpose yardage, touchdown production 130 to 100 to 94), and post-season award profile (7 Pro Bowls & 3 All-Pros to 5 & 1 and 6 & 2). If a fourth first year player makes it, realistically I see it probably going to Bettis, due to the slightly better profile, his Super Bowl appearance, and the fact that he was a Steeler–although I actually like Martin a little better as a player.
So, assuming just three of the new guys make the list, who else joins the ranks of finalist, presumably from the 2010 semifinalist list?
Terrell Davis and Kevin Greene seem like they might have a shot. Maybe Ray Guy in a last ditch effort. Or even Art Modell as an owner.
But the guy that jumps out most at me from last year’s list is Aeneas Williams, who I was surprised didn’t make the finalist list this year, especially given the 8/3 post-season profile. The other guy that jumps out to me a bit is Chris Doleman, with his 8/2 profile and 150.5 sacks (I initially went Kevin Greene, but the profile swayed me at the last second).
So, that gives us a finalist list of:
WR Tim Brown
WR Cris Carter
Coach Don Coryell
RB Roger Craig
C Dermonti Dawson
DE Richard Dent
DE Charles Haley
DT Cortez Kennedy
WR Andre Reed
TE Shannon Sharpe
CB Deion Sanders
T Willie Roaf
RB Marshall Faulk
CB Aeneas Williams
DE Chris Doleman
And the Zoneblitz.com Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2011 looks like:
CB Deion Sanders – The lone first year guy to get elected.
C Dermontti Dawson – Got to have a Steeler every year, right? Even if LaBeau technically isn’t going in as one…
TE Shannon Sharpe – Seriously can’t believe he didn’t make it this year.
DE Richard Dent – Gotta have one guy who played primarily in the 80’s, don’t we?
WR Tim Brown – I can’t believe Andre Reed finished higher than both Brown and Carter in the 2010 voting, and to be honest, I can’t believe that he gets into Canton ahead of them. To be honest, I tend to think Carter was the better receiver–but my Minnesota bias might play a role in that, even though I never really liked Carter that much. Even Pro-Football-Reference seems to give Carter the edge. But I go Brown, if just because he might have more friends in the media.
We’re still ignoring the senior candidates for now-we might be back with another post in the next couple of weeks with our picks for those candidates, even though that seems to be a bit of a crap shoot…
So what do you think?
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Why isn’t Curtis Martin in the list for the finalists? He has the 4th most rushing yards and he is the oldest player to have a rushing title. He also scored 100 TD’s. And he has 10 straight seasons with 1,000+ rushing yards to start a career, NFL record.
From your class of 2011 I would suggest that Reed replaces Brown
Brad – I knew you wouldn’t like it, but did you even read the full post, or just the list?
Oldest to win a rushing title and 10 straight seasons with 1,000+ rushing yards to start a career probably will mean little to voters. The 100 TD’s are nice, but Faulk has more–and more total yards (and is less than 2,000 yards back rushing), and has a better postseason mix.
If you go with the premise that all of the previous finalists make it again (not 100% to happen, but a high & will for sure), then that leaves five spots–I don’t think five first year guys make the finalist cut.
If Coryell and/or Craig are dropped from the finalists, there’s a good chance he’ll make it. And I still think he will be a HOF at some point. But even as a finalist, I don’t see any way he makes it all the way to the Hall in year 1.
Patrick – You may be right, based on this year the voters may have Reed ahead of Brown. But I don’t see it, even though I was a huge Reed fan when he played. I won’t be disappointed if it happens that way, but I see Reed as borderline HOF, and Brown as a sure thing.
I’ve been swayed to Andre Reed’s side in the log jam of three receivers. He seems to have the monumental stats that you’ll need anyway as a recent era WR and he leaves a legacy of playing on the Bills teams that went to four straight SB’s.
He also went to seven straight pro-bowls and has great over-all numbers in the post-season that helped the bills got to those SB’s; third in post season receptions behind Jerry Rice and Michael Irvin, top 5 in post season receiving yardage and tied for third in post season 100 receiving yard games….trailing again Irvin and Rice.
Also, add in that he and Jim Kelly had the all-time record for most career completions and career passing yardage from a QB to a WR until those marks were broken by the Manning to Harrison combo in 2005.
Reed also just ranks behind Rice in all-time YAC, showing he wasn’t just catching passes but also making his own yardage too. He gets my vote right now over Carter and Brown.
I still don’t know how Don Coryell isn’t in the HOF with all his influence on the game. ‘Air Coryell’ alone will live forever. BTW, just take a guess where ‘The Greatest Show On Turf’ got its roots from. Coryell was a good coach who completely turned around things in St. Louis and San Diego. He also as the first coach to win 100 games in college and the pros.
One should just do their own research and come to their own conclusion about Coryell’s legacy when it focuses on the I formation, the H-back, TE split wide, 4 and 5 WR sets, three digit play calling system, much less his impact on the ‘Nickel’ and ‘Dime’ defenses.
His coaching tree is filled with HOF coaches and coordinators that implemented his system leading to SB titles with the Redskins, Cowboys and Rams.
I also don’t understand how Haley isn’t already in with his 5 SB rings; that’s more than any other player. Also, Haley got his 12.5 sack in the SB vs Pitt in 1996 which gave him the record at the time for all time post season sacks. He was a force on two teams that won back to back SB’s in SF and Dall with some believing him the player wo put the cowboys over the top and on their way to a dynasty.
Haley has enough stats and credentials for the HOF and was a stud on two differnet all-time teams. He leaves a legacy for most SB rings by one player and by playing a significant role in two dynasties that will live forever, the 80’s 49er’s and the 90’s Cowboys.
Shannon Sharpe should be in as soon as possible with him at one time holding the record for TE’s in rec, rec yards and rec TD’s. He also has three SB rings including back to back titles with Denver.
Like him or not Deion Sanders is a 1st ballot lock for the HOF.
My five modern inductees next year would then read:
Andre Reed, Deion Sanders, Charley Haley, Don Coryell and Shannon Sharpe
My ‘just misses’ would be Carter, Brown, Dawson, Roaf, Faulk and Williams. I believe all these will make the HOF eventually. Faulk is the best of the bunch but i don’t quiet see him as a first ballot HOF.
50/50: Dent and Craig
I’m still wondering if Craig has the over-all numbers for a HOF RB because he certainly has the legacy with the 80’s 49er’s and the first back to go 1,000/1,000.
Dent to me will never rank as an all-time great player like a Bruce Smith or Reggie White, but he clearly will be Hall of Very Good. I can see a case for him if he left a lasting impact along with it to bump him over the top. Though he’s part of a team that will never die in the 85 bears and a ‘46 defense’ that pause the game of football in 1985, I’m not sure one season of system and team dominace is enough to validate him for the HOF.
I don’t really see Kennedy and Doleman as HOF’s. They both to me are Hall of Very Good types that really leave no lasting legace like atleast Dent does in a smaller fashion. Kennedy gets a lot of support though. I just don’t remember watching him and thinking to myself he’s a HOF.
In fact, I always thought that Michael Dean Perry was pretty much the equal to Kennedy and he’s never sniffing Canton.
Interesting. There’s a name I haven’t seen thrown out much, if at all, since we started this thing. I was about to say no way to Michael Dean Perry. Then I looked him up at profootballreference.com (http://www.pro-football-reference.com/players/P/PerrMi00.htm) and to my surprise he went to six pro bowls and was twice first-team All Pro. He had a couple of pretty dominant looking seasons, at least by the numbers, and several very solid ones.
I don’t know enough about him to guess whether he ever gets consideration for the hall. But his career was certainly stronger than I gave it credit for.
A correction on Haley’s sack total in the post season. It’s 11 sacks instead of 12.5
The current leaders all-time in the post season(I think) are Bruce Smith(14.5), Reggie White(12) and Haley(11).
As far as who might be the two senior nominees for 2011, my top picks would be Chuck Howley and Otis Taylor. The SB is in Dallas next year so I wonder if that will have anything to do with the senior committee possibly selecting a cowboy.
Jerry Kramer, Johnny Robinson, Jim Patton, Cliff Harris, Tommy Nobis, Pete Retzlaf are other possible options. Maybe that old time Eagle that finally got on the Eagles Honor Roll this year will finally get selected as well.
I just hope the picks are much better than last year!!
If the voters thought Brown was a sure thing he would have been voted in this year. But it appears the voters who have been considering Reed for the last several years are moving closer to voting him in. Either way it is quite clear that within the next few years Brown, Reed, and Carter will make it in. Election is a numbers game and ultimately what matters is not whether one gets in first or when, but that they all get in eventually. If it was me voting I would put in Carter and Reed before Brown.
The has also been a concern discussed in recent years over the underrepresentation of defensive players in the HOF, I think that has influenced voting in recent years (including Jackson and Randle this year), which leaves me to believe that Sanders and Dent will both be among the five (with Reed, Sharpe, and Dawson) next year.
It will also be interesting to see how voters handle the three new running backs; Martin, Bettis, and Faulk who rank 4th, 5th, and 9th all time in career rushing. All other retired top ten backs are already in HOF and Tomlinson (8th) is a certain HOFer.
[...] of Fame Class of 2010 announcement, along with our thoughts and analysis. Also, check out our new 2011 Pro Football Hall of Fame Inductee [...]
Andy and Tony,
Great post guys! I agree with Deion Sanders, Willie Roaf, and Marshall Faulk, in fact I think they could be first ballot. I know that will be tough for Roaf since McDaniel wasn’t but maybe since he was a LT which is the highest profile lineman he gets in there on his first crack.
I thought CB Aeneas Williams should od been a first ballot last time so I feel confident he will get in this time around. I think Dent a 6-time Finalist will be put on the shelf for awhile now. Same for Don Coryell who was a stretch for sure. Like Tags they tested the water and there wasn’t enough support.
Against Martin are some of his career rushing averages which are rather pedestrian and his career total is only 4.0 which isn’t too exciting. He definetly belongs in the HOF but I fear many will remember him as the journeyman workhorse with a very good Jets OL and not remember the dynamic back he was with the Pats and Jets for the first five years of his career. For the first half of his career he was one of the best RB’s I’ve ever seen. Amazing ability to run and catch the ball. And later he was remarkably productive if not the same flashy back. He’s going to wait a while but IMO he goes in before Bettis. Maybe Bettis doesn’t go in at all?
Lots of support for Lester Hayes so you might see his name pop up again.
Here’s your list with modifictions.
WR Tim Brown
WR Cris Carter HOF!! errrrr!
Coach Don Coryell Out! — In! Jerome Bettis
RB Roger Craig Out! — In!! Kevin Greene
C Dermonti Dawson
DE Richard Dent Out!– In! Curtis Martin
DE Charles Haley HOF!! tough call
DT Cortez Kennedy
WR Andre Reed
TE Shannon Sharpe HOF !!
CB Deion Sanders HOF!!
T Willie Roaf
RB Marshall Faulk HOF!! tough call
CB Aeneas Williams
DE Chris Doleman nope! WR Cliff Branch – last year eligible!
I would rank the three log jam WR’s in this order as far as makiing the HOF:
(1)Andre Reed
(2)Cris Carter(130 TD’s)
(3)Tim Brown(I wonder if his Heisman Trophy will help him even more get in)
I think that Larry Allen has the best chance of being a first ballot HOF of the upcoming eligible lineman that include Will Shields, Jonathan Ogden and Willie Roaf. Their all stellar candidates though!
Roaf and Allen both made the all-decade teams in the 90’s and 00’s. Allen though was more versatile than the others, making the pro bowl at three different positions. In fact, for six straight years, Allen made the pro bowl and AP first team all-pro at three different postions….LG, RG and LT.
Allen also was stellar at RT in 1994 when he replaced an injured Erik Williams(car crash) and would’ve made pro bowl that year if he played in enough games.
Allen was the best player on those great Cowboy Offensive Lines that we’re always hearing about that paved the way for Emmit Smith. I would be shocked if Larry Allen is not a first ballot HOF.
I think Faulk is the best of the three RB’s, with Martin an edge over Bettis.
I’m also surprised that Bill Parcells isn’t already in the HOF. The legacy he has with the Giants, maybe the two greatest coaching turn-arounds ever with the pats and jets, making the Cowboys respectable again and leaving them with players like Tony Romo, MB3, Demarcus Ware, Jason Witten, Jay Ratliff and Miles Austin….most of these players being draft day steals, including amazingly Ratliff a 7th round pick with Romo and Austin NOT EVEN DRAFTED BY ANY TEAM.
Now as a GM, he goes to Miami the first year and they go to the playoffs off of a 1-15 record the year before. They were also respectable this year but the injuries to their starting QB and especially Ronnie Brown dented their season.
Parcells is a HOF’er.
Allen might be one of the few OL to be on a first ballot.
I know he was joked about and got into trouble but I would think Nate Newton would have a shot. The whole Cowboy line was great at opening huge holes. The C – Mark Stepnoski was on 90’s Decade Team but I don’t think he has a shot. Tuinay ? was solid. Eric Williams was a dirty rotten scoudrel so he won’t make it. I just can’t imagine 2 OL players not makig it off such a good line.
I think Parcells has to retire first?
Don’t forget about Walter Jones of the group of great OL.
Timmy Brown was the best athlete of the three. I think Reed will have to wait at least as long as Art Monk.
Will Ruben Brown make the HOF?
Bill Parcells is not in the HoF primarily because he isn’t eligible yet. As of a couple years ago, the HoF made it a requirement that all coaches need to be retired for 5 years before being eligible for consideration. For Parcells, that won’t happen for another two years, assuming he doesn’t coach again before then. In fact, I’ve seen good speculation that the 5 year waiting period for coaches was instituted because of Parcells’s penchant for retiring and un-retiring several times (note that there didn’t used to be a waiting period for coaches).
No, I don’t think Ruben Brown makes the HoF. Am thinking more postseason honors decorated guards such as Will Shields and Alan Faneca may struggle enough to be elected on their own — and given how hard it can be for guards to make the HoF in general, I don’t think Brown has much of a chance.
Am thinking much of the reason Don Coryell isn’t in the HoF is that his head coaching W-L record isn’t that distinguished, his postseason coaching accomplishments are nil, and his defenses usually were lousy. If he gets in, it will be more as contributor/innovator for what he accomplished coaching on the offensive side of things. Perhaps that’s enough — hard to say.
And as has been discussed here on other threads, Super Bowl rings and NFL Championships often make a difference for Hall of the Very Good level QBs (Bobby Layne, Joe Namath, Bob Griese, Terry Bradshaw, Troy Aikman), rarely for HotVG offensive players otherwise (Lynn Swann, Paul Hornung), and never for defensive players. One can see Charles Haley stuck in a logjam of strong if not elite HoF level LBs/DEs/hybrid types from the 80s and 90s such as Andre Tippett, Rickey Jackson, Kevin Greene, Chris Doleman, Derrick Thomas, and Harry Carson. Given that
-about half of these have been elected so far, thus establishing clear precedent for players at this level as HoF worthy
and
-Haley was a finalist this year and a semifinalist the last couple years prior
I’d say the chances Haley gets elected sooner or later is very good. If Haley had gotten in and none of the rest had, I’d have a problem with that — but given the realities, I’m fine with him getting elected.
“I think Dent a 6-time Finalist will be put on the shelf for awhile now.”
Tony, I would disagree as the normal tradition is that players that stay on the list of 15 finalists, especially those that advance to the top 10, and will continue to be finalists and move forward towards eventual selection. My guess is that Dent falls into that group and will be a finalist and elected within the next few years.
If you go back the last several years the vast majority of players who stayed on as a 15 finalists ultimately were elected. And although there are no published lists of the top ten from the annual elections, my guess would be that those are all eventually elected – which from 2010 would include Sharpe, Dawson, Dent, Kennedy and Reed. Two or three of these would get in in 2011 and the rest in 2012.
“I’m also surprised that Bill Parcells isn’t already in the HOF. ”
Because as was explained earlier coaches need to be retired 5 years and even though he is currently serving as Miami President (three years) the five year period has not passed nor the uncertainty of whether he will coach again. He made the list 25 semi-finalists once before and had to be removed when he returned to coach Dallas.
The reason I was surprised about Parcells is that I remember he had already been a finalist in 2001 and 2002.
In both years, he failed to gain induction when I thought his work alone with the Giants, Jets and Pats would’ve been enough.
Unless you have many championships Coaches often taken multiple attempts before elected (Bill Walsh was not a first time election), also I suspect some voters let their personal feelings on Parcells influence them and perhaps some were uncertain whether he would in fact evidently return to coaching, in fact in 2003 his name was removed from the list of 25 semis when hired by Dallas.
Parcells was a finalist when the rules for head coaches stated they must be retired for one year. I remember reading at the time that voters were reluctant to elect him as they felt (rightly so in hindsight) he would return to coaching. He will be eligible in 2012 with Will Shields and Tiki Barber and that’s looking like a good year for clearing up some of the current backlog before the competition becomes brutal again – Ogden, Strahan, Sapp, Larry Allen, Morten Andersen, Priest Holmes, John Lynch in 2013. Derrick Brooks, Marvin Harrison, Tony Dungy, Zach Thomas, Shaun Alexander (not a fan) in 2014. We can also pencil in Kurt Warner, Junior Seau and Isaac Bruce as 1st time eligible in 2015.
Dent and Kennedy appear to be next in line for the defensive linemen. I don’t agree that Dent will be on the shelf as Harry Carson made it in his 7th time as a finalist. Art Monk, John Stallworth and Don Maynard all got elected as 8th time finalists. Kennedy also made the jump into the Final 10 for the first time which bodes well for the future. Remember Big Tez is an 8/3 candidate, an All-Decade selection and a Defensive Player of The Year in 1992 with 92 tackles and 14 sacks on a 2-14 Seattle team. I can’t believe how anyone thinks he is not worthy of Canton.
In 2009 the players who made the Final 10 who did not get elected were Dent, Randle, Carter, Sharpe and Grimm. Randle and Grimm are now elected so Carter was the only one to drop down in the vote where he was replaced by Reed. Dent and Sharpe have now had Top 10 support two years running which makes their chances of taking the next step look very good.
I’m not going to predict the 2011 Class but rather the next 10 modern era names who will get elected by 2012. Dawson and Roaf will be the next two OL. Dawson (7/6, All Decade) I think gets elected in 2011 with Roaf (11/3 and two All Decades) in 2012. Dent and Sharpe should also be elected by 2012. Deion (8/6, All Decade and DPOTY) is a 100% lock in 2011 and Faulk (7/3, 3 OPOTYs and MVP) a 90% lock for next year. That’s 6 names so far. At least one of the WR trio backlog will get in by 2012. That would be 5 offensive players and two defensive players for my projections so maybe Kennedy balances it out at 5/3. Parcells will have to wait as Bill Walsh didn’t make it first time. I think the other two spots by 2012 will be between whoever is left at WR, Haley, Doleman, Greene, Bettis and Martin.
Those who are not in by 2012 will have to face some very stiff competition from 2013 (see above) and may have a long wait.
Cliff Branch has now dropped off the modern era list. 2011 is the last chance for Lester Hayes and Ray Guy (both retired after 1986) before they have to rely on the Seniors route. That will 3 more names for the Senior Commitee to consider.
boknows34,
This year is the 2010 Class which will be Cliff Branch’s last year of modern eligibility.
Branch’s last year was 1985 and 2010 is his 25th year of eligibility.
This year’s class will be the 2010 Class to be inducted in 2011.
Does it make sense to you?
Tony P.
The 2010 HOF Class has come and gone which WAS Cliff Branch’s last year of modern era eligibility. This year’s Class is the 2010 Class and will be inducted in August 2010. Where are you getting 2011 from?
As you know a player remains on the ballot until 25 calendar years after his retirement, but because of the 5 season retirement rule a candidate has 20 seasons of actual ELIGIBILITY as a modern era candidate. In Branch’s case he retired following the ‘85 season so the recent 2010 Class was his last chance to take the modern route. The 86-90 seasons were his 5 seasons of waiting and 1991 was the first HOF Class he was eligible for. (We always have to add 6 calendar years from a player’s last season to his first year of HOF eligibility). I think that’s where some of the confusion lies. 1991-2010 may be 19 calendar years but are actually 20 seasons of HOF Class eligibility.
Look at this link from the profootballhof website on the selection process for the 2010 Class.
http://www.profootballhof.com/hof/selectionprocess.aspx
On the 5th paragraph it states:
When the Selectors meet in South Florida next February to name the Class of 2010, they will have before them a roster of 17 final candidates, along with detailed biographies on each. To assure that older players will be considered along with the younger breed, the Seniors Committee – made up of nine veteran members of the overall Selection Committee – have named two nominees from the pre-1985 era to be included on the final list.
Therefore the next HOF Class of 2011 will look at the pre-1986 era for its Senior Nominees which Branch is now a part of as he retired in 1985. Guy and Hayes will face their last modern era chance in 2011 as they retired following the ‘86 season. From 2012 they too become Seniors.
A recent case was Bob Keuchenberg. The HOF lists his final season as 1984 (see link below for 2009 finalists) and he was of course an unsuccessful modern era finalist in that Class of 2009. Kooch was therefore not eligible as a modern era candidate for the recent 2010 Class which is why he was not on its preliminary candidate list.
http://www.profootballhof.com/enshrinement/story.aspx?story_id=3071
http://www.profootballhof.com/enshrinement/2009/9/19/2010-preliminary-nominees—by-position/
Hope this makes sense too.
When the preliminary list of candidates is released this fall (2010) for the class of 2011 that is when the 25 year calculation of eligability is made. In other words it will be based on 2010 year and not 2011. So Cliff Branch (last season was 1985) is still eligable for class of 2011 election as a modern candidate as he will be on the preliminary list this fall (2010). It is not based on 25 years since your last season but 25 since retired. Branch played in 1985, he retirement is counted as 1986.
Rayfield Wright – retired 1979
Was eligible for the Class of 2004 where he was a finalist.
For the Class of 2005 (26 years after his retirement) he was not on the modern era list (see below). In 2006 he was elected as a Senior.
http://www.profootballhof.com/history//release.aspx?release_id=1319
Therefore Branch is no longer eligible as a modern era candidate. 2011 is also 26 years after his final season just like Wright in 2005.
Patrick.
We count from 1986 for Branch’s 5 season waiting period. (86-90). He was then draft eligible from 1991 but this means he has already been passed over 20 times by the HOF voting committee. 1991-2010 is 19 calendar years but actually 20 HOF Classes. When you add on the 5 season waiting period (86-90) Branch’s 25 seasons have now expired.
Edit: Should of course mean HOF eligible from 1991, not draft eligible.
Branch is in his 25th year of eligibility. Thanks Patrick for trying to help.
Kooch’s retired after 1983 and wasn’t eligible last year for the first time.
Anyone else want to explain to boknows34 ? I’m done.
Sorry I misspoke , not his 25th year of eligibilty rather 25th year after his retirement. I hope someone give Branch a shot or he could be stuck in Senior hell.
Tony P
Kooch did not retire after 1983. He played his last game in 1983 but spent the 1984 season on Injured Reserve and is therefore credited with that season. The link I provided above from the HOF’s own website even credits him for 1984. His 5 season waiting period was 85-89 and was passed over 20 times from 1990-2009, hence why he was not on the 2010 prelim list.
Bob Kuechenberg – Guard – 1970-1984 Miami Dolphins
And Pro Football Reference also agrees with me that Branch will be eligible for Senior nomination from the Class of 2011.
http://www.pro-football-reference.com/blog/?p=5399
2nd para:
‘I’m also surprised Branch got this far this season, because starting in the HOF Class of 2011, Branch will be eligible as a Senior’s nominee.’
If you still don’t believe me I guess you’ll just to have wait until the prelim list is released in Sept for the 2011 Class. If Branch’s name is on the list (which it won’t) I’ll buy you a beer. Why don’t you email the HOF and ask them?
I thought Dent would get in before Randall so I know hes going to have to make it next year, hes next in line
Sharpe has to get in next year, okay making him wait one year was fine but the man has 3 rings he should get in next year or it would be a crime.
Dawson – Its always 1 olineman to get in every year it should be his year
Reed – I think Carter was better but Reed has waited long enough I think he’ll get the nod this year with Carter next year
Prime Time- 1st ballot what else can you say
Faulk – I think Marshall gets the last modern day vote, played in 2 bowls won 1 and should have won the other, he gets the nod of Bettis and Martin
tre–
–the HoF can only vote in a maximum of 5 modern era candidates and 2 Seniors. You’ve got 6 modern era players listed here.
–the soonest any TE has ever been elected to the HoF is “3rd eligible year/3rd time as finalist” in the case of Kellen Winslow. It’s no crime that Shannon Sharpe has been waiting a couple years, as every other TE in has done so. “Rings” normally only boost QBs into the HoF anyway.
–it’s not always “1 olineman to get in every year,” actually. Going back over the last 20 years, there were no o-linemen elected in 2005, 2002, 2000, 1995, 1994, or 1992. Two were inducted in 2007, 1999, 1998, 1996, and 1991. And in 2001, three got in. One might guess it will be Dermontti Dawson if one modern era o-lineman is elected in 2011, but there’s always a chance William Roaf could sneak past him on his first eligible year (though I wouldn’t count on it). Jackie Slater was indeed elected his first time out, so who knows?
–it’s hard to say with Richard Dent. The smart money might have thought it was “his turn” this year, but John Randle and Rickey Jackson swept in instead. And Cortez Kennedy could get elected in 2011 ahead of him. Dent’s borderline anyway, with only one AP 1st team all pro selection, only 4 pro bowl appearances, and a reputation for being weak against the run, taking plays off, and getting the gravy stats while Dan Hampton tied up blockers to make it all possible. Dent may make it in anytime between next year and never, but he’s just enough of a borderline candidate that it’s tough to predict.
–agreed that Deion Sanders is as close to a “first ballot” lock as 2011 has, and Marshall Faulk is close behind him.
Faulk is a tough call for me as far as a first ballot choice. I think it’s real close though he certainly was that kind of player from 1999 through 2001.
He’s certainly a no-brainer and would get in atleast by his 2nd year of eligibility anyway.
I didn’t know about no TE had been elected until their third try, which explains probably why Sharpe missed out this year. He should be in though now ‘asap’.
One thing about Dawson is if he doesn’t get in next year, then 2012 will be Roaf’s second try and Will Shields’ first year…..and come 2013, Larry Allen and Jonathan Ogden are first timers. I’m not sure Dawson wants to be competing as a Center vs other Guards and Tackles who seem more qualified like those above.
I think Dawson is a no-brainer for me, but he might want to make it by next year and avoid tough competition in the future.
Dent is 50/50 for me. It’s going to come down to how much value the voters give to the 85 Bears. I don’t think the Bears defense of the 80’s was one that carries an ever-lasting legacy, though as good as it was. The 85 Bears and the ‘46′ were suppose to rule the rest of the 80’s and yet, they only had one more playoff victory the rest of the decade.
The 86, 87 and 88 Bears all had their seasons end at Soldier Field vs teams they were suppose to beat, especially the 14-2 Bears team in 86 that was upset by the skins 27-13(I remember watching that game). The Bears defense in those losses was not especially good.
In fact, the only playoff win for the Bears the rest of the 80’s after 85, was the ‘Fog Bowl’ in 1988 vs the Eagles.
boardgame:
I agree with your analysis on Dawson. He’s certainly a no brainer and he’ll want to get inducted by the Class of 2012 before Ogden and Allen provide very stiff competition a year later. Will Shields looks like the one who will get pushed down by Dawson, Roaf, Ogden and Allen. Shields will be the last of that group of 5 to get inducted.
TEs have indeed found it tough going before to get elected. Adding to bachslunch’s mention of Winslow Sr setting the mark at 3 years, Ozzie Newsome got in on the 4th attempt. John Mackey waited 15 years, Dave Casper 13 and Mike Ditka 12. Its only a matter of time for Sharpe. He’s made the cut down to the Last 10 for the past two Classes – as has Dent.
Good comments! Finally a voice of reason in evaluating Dent. I don’t know what will happen but I chose to drop him from my list of Finalists. It’s certianly not a unheard of for a player to be brushed off after being in the voter’s sights for 5, 6 or 7 years. Just look at Johnny Robinson, Charlie Conerly and Jerry Kramer who looked to be on the brink of election only to be dropped. Some folks were damn persistent to support Lynn Swann so strongly over 14 years. That’s a bunch of times another player could of got a shot.
Here’s a take on some Raiders that are falling short of the HOF that I found interesting from a Raiders site called “Thoughts from the Darkside”.
“And what about Cliff Branch? His numbers are better than quite a few other Hall of Famers that played during his generation. He has comparable numbers to John Stallworth and far superior numbers to Lynn Swann, both of whom are in the Hall of Fame. Branch was also on three Super Bowl winning teams. He was a four time Pro Bowler and his three times as a first team All-Pro is more than Swann and Stallworth combined. He set a standard for this Raiders franchise that has never been equaled since. Not even once. Since he retired after the ‘85 season, Al Davis and the Raiders have spent 25 years trying to replace him and have failed every time.
Lester Hayes was part of the most fearsome corner tandem in the NFL while with the Raiders. He and Michael Haynes set their own standard for dominance and were the original lock down corners. Yet, despite his battery mate Haynes having his day in Canton, Hayes has been turned away every season just as Guy and Branch have.
Then add Tom Flores, Jim Plunkett, and Todd Christensen, who didn’t make the list of 25 semi finalists and you have completed the travesty. Flores and Plunkett teamed up as coach and quarterback to win two superbowls. Plunkett remains the ONLY quarterback to have started for two Super Bowl winning teams and not be inducted in the Hall of Fame. Todd Christensen was also on those teams. And interesting fact is that Shannon Sharpe made the list of finalists this year in his first year of eligibility. Sharpe had three 1000 yard seasons in 14 years as a player in the NFL. Do you know how many Christensen had in nine seasons with the Raiders? THREE. And yet Sharpe is a first year finalist and Christensen didn’t evenmake it as a semi-finalist. Go figure.
Then there is the fact that Ken Stabler was mysteriously not even on the list of those eiligible to be semifinalists. How does that happen? There are many who think that Stabler is the most deserving of all the Raider candidates. TFDS held a vote last season to find out who the Raider Nation thought most deserving of enshrinement and it was a dead heat between Stabler and Guy until Stabler had his DUI charge. Could that DUI from last year be the reason he was excluded this season? It is possible. But it sounds more like an excuse for the committee to shut him out completely. He should have been inducted years ago. He was an All-Pro, Super Bowl winning quarterback as well as a four time Pro Bowler. His teams rivaled the best teams of all time and any player from his generation will tell you that they would put him against anyone in the two minute drill. “
Stabler is another that has now slipped off the modern era candidate list and into the Senior’s pool. He was brilliant in 1974 (MVP, 1st team all-Pro, 94.9 qb rating) and 1976 (Bert Bell Award, 103.4 qb rating and Super Bowl title). He was also an All-Decade choice which is a big feather in his cap. Stabler played in 5 AFCCG and his three times as a finalist for the Hall of Fame are the second most of any quarterback not in Canton (Charley Conerly has been a finalist seven times).
If the seniors committee decide to look at a QB I think the choice would be between Stabler and 49ers great John Brodie. He led the NFL in passing yardage and completion percentage three times, TD passes twice and QB rating once while winning MVP in 1970. At the time of his retirement following the 1973 season, Brodie ranked fourth in career passing yards (31,548) and eighth in touchdown passes (214). What’s missing from his resume is an NFL championship.
Christensen was simply tremendous for a 4 year spell. He led the NFL in receptions twice and missed on a fourth 1,000 yd season by just 13 yds. He’s a 5/2 with 2 further 2nd team All Pros. The problem it appears for Todd is that his career outside that 5 year spell is pretty sparse. He was a late starter and and retired aged just 32 following a season of 15-190. Its the same thing that is hurting Terrell Davis’ chances. Tremendous peak but enough bulk of work it seems. Another TE I loved from the 80s was Mark Bavaro.
Good assesment boknows34.
I haven’t been a big supporter of Stabler but have been for Brodie. I wrote about him and actually think Brodie may of been higher on the passing yd list when he retired. Brodie made a team with a lousy history and mostly mediocre players into a respectable team that eventually returned to the Playoffs for the first time in 12 years. The 49ers only made the Playoffs twice in their 24 year history.
I can’t get Stabler’s 13 TD- 28 Int season out of my head. That’s horrible! It was good that he had Earl Campbell on his team. It was like his arm was weaken by throwing all those long bombs to Branch in Al Davis’s Offense. He turned into a noodle arm! I don’t think he was on a good conditioning program.
Don’t forget about Ken Anderson. I guess it’s hard to put him ahead of Stabler with his accomplishments. Anderson threw such a nice ball and he really led Cinncy with a lot of savvy later in his career. I really liked watching his WR Issac Curtis but believe he probably falls just short of the HOF. He was smooth!
I would put Terrell Davis in the HOF just based on what I saw of him. He was an awesome downhill rusher! Once in a while like Gale Sayers and Dwight Stephenson you have to take quality over duration.
Stabler’s poor finish in Houston and New Orleans is hurting his Canton chances. His Raiders qb rating was over 80 with a 150-143 TD/INT ratio. With the Oilers and Saints for 5 seasons the qb rating was in the 60s with a 44-79 TD/INT ratio. His recent DUIs won’t endear him to the Seniors Committee either so I think he’s a longshot to be honest.
I would agree with the rest of the names you mention. I think Ken Anderson would probably be in the HOF already had the Bengals won SB XVI. He’ll need to rely on the Senior’s route some day but has I believe been a HOF finalist. Brodie would be a good Senior’s choice.
Terrell Davis certainly passed the eyeball test as a HOFer. When you look at Faulk, Bettis and Martin being added to the nominees he was certainly a better player than the latter two and a better pure runner than all 3. When you consider Faulk, Bettis and Martin should all get elected, then Davis should too eventually imo. The Gale Sayers comparison is a fair one as Davis played longer and has more yds and TDs plus the two SB rings, SB MVP, league MVP and a 2k season to his resume. I prefer seeing high peak, elite players like Davis get there before Martin who will be remembered for being very good, consistent and durable for a long time. But when I make my HOF predictions I choose who I think will get elected rather than who I would vote for. In that case I would predict, like most people would I’m sure, that Martin will reach Canton before TD.
I really like T.D. but I thought Martin was sensational early in his career with the Patriots for a passing team (Bledsoe) that didn’t run block well. And Bettis early in his career had some real moves and speed (before his body shape changed.
I basically agree but I think it’s close talent wise if you look just at the first 5 years. Of course few players in the history of the League ran as tough as T.D. Earl Campbell tough which is high praise.
Bachslunch doesn’t like the Sayers – Davis comparison. He says because of Sayers ability to return the ball that he was a better player and had a better career. He might be right but I can’t think of anyone else to compare Davis too. Actually his career wasn’t that short but his effectiveness was after his knee injury. I believe Sayers had two knee injuries and he was essentially done. He came back pretty good from the first one in “Brian Song”.
Another guy that came back from a knee I believe and never was the same but was still productive and significant was Ottis Anderson. Does anyone think Ottis’s career wasn’t as good as HOFer John Riggins? And how the heck doesn’t he deserve to be in the HOF? I’ve said it before, Anderson as a young man was one of the best RB’s I’ve ever seen. I used to see him routinely shred the Cowboys up and down. That’s the Cowboys that went to the Super Bowl and three straight NFC Championship games. He made the “Flex Defense” go flat like a tire.
IMO the early 80’s to mid 80’s had the largest collection of really good RB’s – W.Payton, E.Campbell, T.Dorsett, OJAnderson, W.Andrews, W.Montgomery (one of my favs), M. Allen, E.Dickerson, J.Morris, J. Riggins, G.Rogers, C.Muncie, J.Brooks, J.Cribbs, F. McNeil, W.Tyler, C.Warner, Roger Craig and M.Pruitt. No wonder Anderson was only a 2/1 although he could of been more. Seemed like only Miami didn’t have a great RB. OK Tony Nathan was great in my book.
Will Dan Marino ever have a Miami WR next to him in the HOF?
It’s rare indeed that I’ve seen a reason to disagree with poster “boknows34,” but I will regarding the comparison of Terrell Davis and Gale Sayers. Doing a direct numbers sizing up is misleading here, as they played in very different time periods. Furthermore, keep in mind that Sayers can be considered a marginal HoF-er simply because of his short peak and short career and anything less than Sayers can be a problem in HoF consideration as a result.
Here’s how I see it. Both Sayers and Davis played for 7 seasons. Sayers has a career that encompasses 5 excellent years and 2 useless one. Davis has 4 excellent years, one okay year, and 2 useless ones. That already puts Davis behind Sayers a bit. And the separation gets larger when you add in that Davis did not return kicks while Sayers was an elite-level kick returner. Plus Sayers never got the chance to play in the postseason.
Davis certainly has a HoF case if you value short peaks and very short careers. Myself, I won’t be distressed if he gets elected someday, but I won’t consider it a travesty of justice if he’s left out. Part of the problem here is that post-50s short career players haven’t fared well in HoF voting in past with a few notable exceptions: Sayers, Earl Campbell, and Dwight Stephenson, for three. Note that Dick Stanfel and Mac Speedie were voted down as Seniors in the past, and neither Tony Boselli nor Sterling Sharpe have gotten any love thus far from semifinalist voters.