One reader who left some comments said Randy Moss is worth a Hall of Fame post discussion of his own. I think he’s right. I’ve been thinking about this post for awhile but that comment finally spurred me to do some research. Here’s what I found.

It will be difficult for Hall of Fame voters to deny Randy Moss a spot in the Pro Football Hall of Fame based on the numbers he has put up, despite controversies that have followed Moss around throughout his career.

He has made highlight reel plays and posted several amazing game logs and seasons and, through minor incident here and minor incident there, put up some fantastic numbers during the first 13 years of his career.

But an analysis of those statistics also indicates that he could have been so much more. Had Moss maintained the pace he was on the first six years of his career he very likely would have eclipsed Jerry Rice, at least statistically, as the greatest wide receiver of all time.

And frankly it wouldn’t have been close.
During his first six years in Minnesota, Moss caught 525 passes for 8,375 yards and 77 touchdowns, according to ProFootballReference. Rounding up, that put him on pace if he played the same 20 seasons Rice did to catch 1750 passes for 27,917 yards and 257 touchdowns.

Rice holds the records in all three of those categories with 1549 catches for 22,895 yards and 197 touchdowns. So Moss not only would have caught Rice’s numbers, he would have obliterated them by 200 catches, more than 5,000 yards and 60 touchdowns – even if Moss’ performance lagged some toward the end of his second decade, on that pace he likely would have built a comfortable margin on Rice.

Furthermore, a comparison of the two wideouts’ stats indicate that Moss’ first six years in the NFL were more dynamic than Rice’s, and that really wasn’t close either. Rice held a slight 79 to 77 advantage in touchdowns, but Moss had him comfortably in yards (8,375 to 7,866) and receptions (525 to 446).

Rice defenders and other naysayers can say comparing these two great players is difficult because they played during different eras and enforcement of certain rules has changed over the years. And they might have a point.

They’d also have a point if they asked why I chose six years. There is no magic bullet about the sixth year of a wide receiver’s career. It just happened to be the time in Moss’ career when he went from being consistently dominant to when his season-by-season numbers started getting erratic.

But I’m pretty sure it’s not going to matter anyway. I believe seven years after Moss posted his amazing half-dozen year run that Rice’s records — and his status as the best wide receiver of all-time — are safe.

The difference? After six years, Rice still had several of his best years in front of him. His career had already taken off, but he, arguably, got even more dominant. And he was known for being a workout freak and an amazing competitor, all of which conspired to allow him to put up huge numbers, even factoring in almost a full season lost to a knee injury.

Moss, on the other hand, has been inconsistent at best during the seven years since and, in a couple of cases, downright invisible.

At 29 years old, Moss’ second year in Oakland, 2006, he is accused by some critics of quitting on his team. That season he put up 42 catches for 553 yards and just three touchdowns, despite playing in 13 games for the Silver and Black. When Rice was 29, he put up 80 catches for 1,206 yards and 14 touchdowns with San Francisco.

Moss came back to post three solid to great seasons with New England, particularly on the record-setting 16-0 regular season the Patriots posted in 2007. Moss caught 98 passes that year for 1,493 yards and an amazing 23 touchdowns, eclipsing Rice’s best touchdown season by one.

But he reportedly again became a troublemaker in year four. And while Bill Belichick denies there were any incidents, media reports indicate that he ridded himself of Moss for similar reasons, trading him back to Minnesota. Minnesota also tired of his antics after four weeks and cut him. He landed in Tennessee, where he played eight games, but started just four. And when Kenny Britt returned from an injury, Moss actually spent most of the last quarter of the season sitting on the bench.

His numbers this season at 33 years old: 28 catches for 393 yards and five touchdowns. When Rice was 33, he posted career highs in receptions with 122, and yards with 1,848. He added 15 touchdowns. Oh, his original team hadn’t gotten rid of him yet – not even once.

Rice’s numbers started to slow a bit after that 1995 season, though he still had four more 1,000 yard-plus seasons in him and his reception numbers were solid up until his final season. At least some observers this season, on the other hand, thought Moss was so bad AND so petulant that he might actually find it hard to get a job next season.

My guess is he’ll end up finding a team that will offer him a one-year deal with a low base salary and a number of incentives that could pay off to a level where Moss finds it in himself to play.

But either way, Rice’s numbers, as far as I can tell, are not going to be challenged by the guy who entered the league with the nickname “Freak.” ‘

Sure, one could argue that Moss has been handcuffed by poor quarterbacking. Rice did have the advantage of having Joe Montana and Steve Young for the bulk of his career. But Moss has also been handcuffed by his own actions and statements, such as the famous 2001 line: “I play when I want to play.”

Rice, to my knowledge, never got in trouble for running down a traffic cop. He never got caught squirting water bottles on officials, never was overheard shouting insults at team-paid post-practice food caterers. And he sure as hell never uttered the words “I play when I want to play.” He always wanted to play, even when it was clear he had little left to give. Rice fought the end of his career hard. As always happens eventually, time won. But Rice put up a better fight against it than most do.

He went about his business, by and large, without incident. Sure, you’d see him gesturing toward his quarterbacks to throw him the ball once in awhile. But great players do that. I could be wrong but I don’t recall any off-field incidents he was involved in. All the numbers, the Super Bowls, the 13 Pro Bowls and the 10 First Team All-Pro accolades earned him his first-ballot trip to Canton, Ohio.

I can’t come up with a scenario in which Moss does not eventually get in to the Hall. Even with the inconsistencies of the last half-dozen years and the issues he’s had with coaches, teammates and others along the way, he’s posted numbers arguably worthy of a similar first ballot honor.

But I can’t help thinking his actions over the years are going to hurt him when he’s eligible for enshrinement the very first time or two. No, the voters aren’t supposed to take conduct into account. But do you want to reward a guy as petulant as Moss with a first ballot enshrinement?

Or if you’re a voter, do you think twice about voting for a guy who didn’t necessarily get everything he could have from his talent? A guy who after six years had put up stats showing he could have been the best of all time, but who let that slip away during the last half of his career by often skating by, if even that, and who arguably left a lot of numbers he should have had unachieved?

It’s possible that once Moss retires and disappears for five years the great plays will replace the controversies at the front of voters’ minds. But I also think Justin was right when he wrote that Hall of Famers aren’t supposed to waste their talents, competitively disadvantage their teams or take multiple years off in the middle of their careers. I believe Randy Moss will go down as the most physically gifted wide receiver of all-time, possibly even the most physically gifted player at any position.

But factor in Rice’s consistency, his Super Bowl rings, his longevity and the fact that his behavior never got him run off the 49ers during the prime years of his career and it’s clear that Moss is nowhere near the overall player Rice was. Whereas Rice’s career made him a surefire, lock first-ballot Hall of Famer, likewise the factors that have dogged his career will make Moss, as Justin again wrote, “perhaps the most hotly debated player ever.”