NFL Picks: 2011 Week 1

As another NFL season rolls around, we figured we’d bring back something we used to do here at Zoneblitz—weekly NFL picks with a little bit of analysis.  Week one is below.  We’ll also be adding in some NFL Gambling picks.

Game of the Week: Pittsburgh @ Baltimore – A lot of people I work with will say that New Orleans @ Green Bay is the game of the week. Then again, they would say that Green Bay @ Seattle would be the game of the week too. I’ve thought the recent trend was to feature the Super Bowl winner opening against their opponent from their conference championship game—so why no Chicago @ Green Bay for the opener? It’s a great rivalry to boot.

Still, while the New Orleans/Green Bay matchup will be good, for my money, Pittsburgh and Baltimore is the game with more intrigue. The two big names in the AFC North matching up in week 1—Pittsburgh coming off the Super Bowl loss versus a Baltimore team that has changed things up a fair amount in the last two years, and hopes to finally have the offensive weapons to match their typically strong defense—which has also gone through some dramatic changes.

While some (especially in Baltimore) want to talk about the Steelers aging, really the only spot that seems to be aging questionably is James Harrison, who reportedly isn’t in game shape after double back surgery in the offseason, and may not play. Still, the Steelers have a history of reloading at LB rather than simply restocking—and having Harrison’s penchant for big hits that lead to penalties out of a heated rivalry game might not end up being a terrible thing.

All in all, this is the game to watch.

Game of the Weak (Part I): Seattle @ San Francisco – Seattle was a bad team last year, despite making the playoffs. And to solve their issues they jettisoned QB Matt Hasselbeck to bring in Tarvaris Jackson, who never accomplished much with the Vikings, and overpaid for Sidney Rice, who had one season of accomplishments with the Vikings, surrounded by several seasons filled with injuries and disappointing results.

The 49ers, after six years of waiting for Alex Smith to justify the first overall pick, brought in Jim Harbaugh, drafted Colin Kaepernick in the second round, and promptly…named Smith the starting QB. OK, not that surprising, given the lack of offseason prep, but with Smith (who has missed 26 games over the last three years, and only started 20), Kaepernick and waiver wire pick up Scott Tolzien, 49er fans can’t be too excited for this year. One wonders what kind of Luck it will take to turn one of these franchises around…

Game of the Weak (Part II): Cincinnati @ Cleveland – Cleveland finally has the look of a team that might be on the upswing. Unfortunately, I’m not convinced they’re there yet. And Cincinnati is one of two teams that appears to be trying to force their rookie QB into a starting role. The difference between Bengals 2^nd round draft pick Andy Dalton and Carolina’s Cam Newton, taken first overall?  Newton at least appears to have the natural ability to do some things well on the field, even if I’m not convinced of his long term viability as a starting QB in the NFL.  Dalton doesn’t seem to have that level of athletic ability (although he did look ok in besting Newton and the Panthers in the third preseason game), and you have to hope that the Bengals didn’t ruin him before his career really began by simply throwing him to the Lions.