Okay, it’s the fourth week of the season now and you can start to see some patterns emerging that will help guide fantasy decisions from here to the end of the year. It’s been another tough week to break away but here are some thoughts.

In the meantime, if you read this post and you think there are ways this could be improved and actually provide something not provided elsewhere, please feel free to drop a comment… thanks.

Locks:

Quarterback: Aaron Rodgers, Green Bay vs Denver — You should never bench Rodgers but that’s especially true today. The Broncos have improved their defense against the run this season but they are giving up the ninth most points to quarterbacks in standard fantasy scoring formats. And that has come against Jason Campbell, Andy Dalton and Matt Hasselbeck. Rodgers will eviscerate Denver’s pass defense, which may be sans Champ Bailey.

Running back: Darren McFadden, Oakland vs New England — I’m nervous about this play as it seems stunning that the Patriots would let running backs go off on them two weeks in a row. But McFadden is on fire right now, both on the ground and through the air. And New England looks vulnerable to running backs both on the ground and through the air. So feel safe playing McFadden, even with New England coming off their one annual wake-up call game.

Wide receivers: Jeremy Maclin (if he plays) and DeSean Jackson, Philadelphia vs San Francisco — The 49ers have been the toughest defense in the NFL against running backs so far, so temper your expectations for LeSean McCoy. But San Francisco can’t stop the pass. If Maclin plays this should be a nice day for Vick to play pitch and catch with his two stars, who to this point have been mostly underwhelming.

Larry Fitzgerald, Arizona vs New York Giants — Most of the Giants’ defensive backs are on injured reserve at this point. Fitzgerald seems to be getting together with Kevin Kolb and this could be the real coming out party for this duo.

Sleepers:

Running back: Tim Hightower, Washington vs St. Louis — The Redskins have been surprisingly competent. St. Louis has been surprisingly disappointing. It’d be surprising if Hightower doesn’t get at least one score here and he could have a really big game in store.

LeGarratte Blount, Tampa Bay vs Indianapolis — Same story here. The Colts were alright against Rashard Mendenhall last week but for the most part running backs will be good plays against them all season. The Bucs rely on mixing the run and the pass and Blount will benefit Monday night.

Wide receiver: Plaxico Burress, New York Jets vs Baltimore — Santonio Holmes has been less than expected and he’s hurting this week. Baltimore is a bottom-10 team in the league against the pass. Burress could get double-digit targets and produce a number of points in this one.

Busts:

Running back: Mark Ingram, New Orleans vs Jacksonville — The Alabama rookie has been a disappointment to fantasy players so far with only 129 yards and one score to his credit. I expect his numbers will pick up as the season wears on but it won’t happen today against a Jaguars defense that has been surprisingly tough on running backs so far. The Saints will win, but they’ll continue to do so through the air.

Peyton Hillis, Cleveland vs Tennessee: Titans defense is playing well right now and Hillis, though fresh from a week off with strep throat, will have tougher sledding than some weeks. He’ll do alright, but will be pounded as much as he pounds in week four.