By my count, Andy dropped another 1-3 week last week, and would probably have his bookie getting ready to break some legs about now, while I managed a respectable 3-1, missing only on my upset of the week (which, had I taken the points, I would have hit as well).

Our week 5 best bets:

Andy:

San Diego (-4) at Denver – Denver has been better defensively this year. … Or at least they had been before playing Green Bay. But the Broncos are still vulnerable to the pass, particularly against a team that has enough of a run threat to play a diversified offense as the Packers did. Philip Rivers won’t match the success of Aaron Rodgers, but he’ll have a solid day in leading San Diego to a comfortable win on the road.

Houston (-6) vs Oakland – Pittsburgh has struggled thus far but I was still surprised to see A) Houston favored to beat the Steelers and B) Houston winning with a minimum of problem. If the Texans can take the Steelers with little fanfare they should beat the Raiders similarly. I guess this could be a letdown game, but the improved defense sported by the Texans thus far in 2011 means they’ll have a shot to win even if the offense isn’t at full strength due to injury (Foster, Tate, Andre Johnson) or flatness.

Arizona (+2.5) at Minnesota – The Vikings are 0-4. They’ve been terrible in the first half and the secondary can’t defend the pass. Arizona has the steady Kevin Kolb and the star Larry Fitzgerald. Beanie Wells even started emerging a bit last week. Until proven otherwise, I’ll bet against Minnesota whenever they’re a favorite right now.

Upset of the week: Carolina (+6, +245 moneyline) vs New Orleans – footballlocks.com lists Carolina as +245 on the money line. The Saints are a more polished team and are closer to contending for a playoff spot. But Cam Newton looks like he’s for real this early in the season and he has rejuvenated Steve Smith early in the season as well. The Panthers have given the Saints fits at times in recent years, even when fielding inferior rosters. I think there’s a decent chance the cats beat New Orleans straight up and I’d be really surprised if the Saints win by more than a touchdown.

Tony:

Arizona (+2.5) @ Minnesota – I’m starting to wonder if this isn’t a trap game gambling wise, where Minnesota manages to pull out a victory through blind luck.  But in four weeks, I haven’t seen anything that tells me the Vikings should be favored again this season, regardless of being home or away.

Green Bay @ Atlanta: Over 53 – I still hate betting super high overs, but everyone knew the Falcons had a suspect defense coming into the season, and the Packers have shown continued vulnerability themselves.  I’d also be fairly comfortable taking the Packers at -6, but this seems like a game that could approach 70 total points scored.

Philadelphia @ Buffalo: Under 50 – I also still hate betting any under, but while Buffalo is currently averaging 33 points a game, that number is inflated by facing three suspect defenses to open the season, and they put up only 20 against the Bengals last week.  I think for this one to hit the over, Philadelphia has to score more than 30 points—and while I think they can win, I don’t know that we will see an offensive outpouring.

Upset of the Week: Cincinnati (+2/+110 Money line) @ Jacksonville – OK, at only +110, it’s not a sexy upset pick (in fact, I should probably make the Cardinals my upset of the week—they’re at least +120).  But in another battle of rookie QB, I think the Bengals come out on top.  Jacksonville has the better ground game, but if Cincinnati can neutralize that to a degree and force the game into Blaine Gabbert’s hands, I think they will leave town with the win.