Recently in our Hall of Fame coverage we seem to be adding individual posts and polls for individual players that are worthy of conversation for the Hall of Fame (ignoring sure things like Brett Favre).
Before last week’s game, Dolphins DE/LB Jason Taylor confirmed that he would retire at the end of the season. He finished his career with 139.5 sacks (6th all-time) in 233 games, 6 Pro Bowls and 3 First Team All-Pro selections. He recovered 29 fumbles (25th all-time) for 246 return yards (2nd all-time) and 6 TDs (1st all-time), and added 8 interceptions, of which 3 were returned for TDs.
The numbers here make me think that it’s less of a question of whether he makes the Hall of Fame, but rather when he makes it–is he a first year guy, or does he have to wait a few years?
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Of course he is a Hall of Famer and I would be surprised if he doesn’t get in within the first 6 ballots(times eligible), but that depends on who is on it. LaDainian Tomlinson might retire this year. You should make a column on him if so. He deserves it even though he is a first ballot HOFer.
Troy Polamalu=HOFer…is he a first ballot when he retires? I think he can be like Ed Reed. It makes me think that guys like Darren Sharper and John Lynch won’t get in because safeties do not get in that often. Time will tell.
Agree that Taylor is a HOFer for sure, and probably within his first five years, so long as they get some of the backlog at similar positions out of the way (Doleman, Haley, Greene), which I think they start this year (or last year, if you consider Dent in that list).
The question will be the same for Tomlinson–not if, but when. 162 career TDs says first ballot to me, although if he retires this year, it’s only an 11 year career (solid, but not great–although probably becoming more of the standard for RB now days), and the last three years have been less impressive from a yardage standpoint. I am shocked he only made 5 pro bowls and 3 All-Pros too.
I’m not convinced Polamalu has the stats to be a first ballot guy yet. If he can continue to play at a top level for 3-4 more years, he might become a first ballot guy–but the difficulty of safeties to get in, combined with at this point only 9 years played (and the 7/3 profile) says he might have to wait a bit–especially if Reed were to retire around the same time. I’m also not convinced Polamalu will play more than another year or two, if he continues to have concussion issues.
Polamalu is now a 7/4 after being named a 1st team All-Pro yesterday. He also has two 2nd team All-Pros and a DPOTY award. Surprised also that LT2 is only a 3-time 1st team All-Pro. His numbers in 2002 and 2003 were certainly worthy but there were some incredible seasons to beat him out both years.
2002:
Ricky Williams – 1,853 yds 17 total TDs
Priest Holmes – 1,615 yds 24 total TDs
2003:
Jamal Lewis – 2,066 yds
Priest Holmes – NFL record 27 TDs
Tomlinson not being first ballot is kind of laughable since only 2 players have scored more TDs than him and only 4 other players have more rushing yards, 31 total TDs NFL Record in 2006 and was named NFL MVP. Priest Holmes is a borderline HOFer in my book. 3 first team AP is good.
I do think Tomlinson makes it on the first ballot, but it’s not as much of a lock as it would have been had his career not tailed off these last three years. The explosion of offense in today’s game, combined with what was realistically not an incredibly long career could push him back a year or two, depending on who else is waiting. It didn’t end up hurting Marshall Faulk, but he had a few other things going for him too (Super Bowl champion, multiple offensive player of the year awards, more pro bowls).
Like I said, not likely to not make it the first year, but possible.
Definitely think Jason Taylor will get in the HoF at some point. His profile of 3(3AP)/6/00s is at the top level for a DL of the era. Not sure he’ll be “first ballot,” though if his first-year competition is weak, there’s a chance.
I’d be very surprised if LaDanian Tomlinson isn’t “first ballot” given that he’ll likely be seen as the best RB of his time by a good stretch. But that may also depend on who else comes up with him as a first-time ballot guy. Funny things happen sometimes.
And Troy Polamalu is definitely looking more and more like a HoF-er as well. As boknows34 says, his 4(4AP)/7/00s profile is approaching top level among safeties, and unlike his competition, he’s probably got a few more all-pro level seasons left in him if he stays healthy. Compare to Ed Reed at 6(5AP)/8/00s and Brian Dawkins at 5(4AP)/8/00s, who are arguably at the top of the list, and he’s getting close. John Lynch’s 3(2AP)/9/none and Darren Sharper’s 4(2AP)/5/00s (as Brad correctly suggests) might not make it in given this level of competition.
There may well be a sense that, while LDT is clearly a great player, he was never super-duper transcendent. He placed 61st on NFL Network’s 100 Greatest Players a year and a half ago, which sounds great for his first-ballot chances until you realize there have only been that many first-ballot players ever. My quick-and-dirty analysis suggests players in the top 40-50 of that list are almost certain to get in first-ballot, while it gets sketchier further down the list, meaning Brady, Manning, Ray Lewis, and maybe Tony Gonzalez are the only active sure things. He probably gets in first ballot (Faulk was 70th), but depending on who else is out there it wouldn’t surprise me if he didn’t. Jason Taylor doesn’t seem to me like a first-ballot guy, but he’s pretty close to at least contending for it, so I’d be surprised if he doesn’t get in in his first three or four ballots.
Here’s an interesting scenario: Some people are wondering if Peyton Manning’s injury will keep him from ever playing again, and if he never takes another snap, he’d be eligible the same year as Brett Favre. Given the eras we associate them with, that’s incredible in and of itself, but considering both would normally be considered surefire first-ballot guys, what happens then?
Morgan,
The first-timers on that ballot could include not only Manning and Favre but potentially T. O. and Randy Moss as well. It would be interesting being in that room when the voters were discussing.
Andy
Favre, TO and Moss would all be eligible for the Class of 2016 as they were not on anyone’s roster this season. Jason Taylor would be 2017 and if Manning retires he’d also be 2017 as he was on the Colts’ active roster this season.
I don’t really consider Taylor to be 1st ballot but I’d be very surprised if he didn’t reach Canton eventually.
The list of 1st year eligibles is very strong 2013-16 and that’s only going to add to the backlog. Take the 10 modern era finalists who don’t elected this year and add:
2013 – Jon Ogden, Michael Strahan, Warren Sapp, Larry Allen, Morten Andersen, John Lynch.
2014 – Derrick Brooks, Marvin Harrison, Zach Thomas, Tony Dungy,
2015 – Junior Seau, Kurt Warner, Walter Jones, Isaac Bruce, Orlando Pace, Torry Holt, Kevin Mawae, Ty Law, Edgerrin James.
2016 – Brett Favre, Randy Moss, Terrell Owens, Darren Sharper, Alan Faneca.
2017 – Jason Taylor, Olin Kreutz. (Possibly Peyton Manning, L.Tomlinson, Hines Ward, Brian Dawkins and Steve Hutchinson).
2012-17 will add 30 modern era names to Canton. There are 26 names above as definite nominees plus the 10 who won’t make it in 2012.
Shaun Alexander, Fred Taylor, Jamal Lewis and Warrick Dunn will also be added to the ballot with incumbents Tiki Barber and Eddie George but I can’t see them getting much momentum. All those RBs kind of cancel each other out.
I thought eligibility was based on when they last played, not when they were no longer on an active roster.
Moss and Owens “behaved badly” and will have no chance to go in first ballot; only Moss has even a remote chance. That means Favre is probably the only guy to get in first ballot in 2016.
Olin Kreutz is the 2nd best Center behind Kevin Mawae in the 2000’s, but Mawae has a much stronger case, but not knocking Olin at all.