I opened last week’s betting post by saying week 17 was going to provide a difficult slate of games to predict, given the varying motivations teams had entering their games. That was the only guess I got right. After a sizzling hot six week stretch put me five games over .500, I ended the season with a 0-4 thud, dropping my record to 34-33-1. That isn’t going to satisfy bettors anywhere, though I can’t complain too much given how poorly I started out. I at least maintained enough of a bankroll to have something left for the playoffs.

My brother, on the other hand, needed a 3-1 week 17 to improve to 31-37 for the year, a mark so low he ran out of money for the rest of the season. So, while he participated in our straight-up picks on who would win the games, he’s sitting out the point spread segment for the playoffs. Here are my best guesses for what this week’s wild card weekend will have in store.

Best Bets

Cincinnati (+3) at Houston – I like the direction the Texans are heading in the years ahead. The defense made incredible strides this season. But they enter the playoffs beat up on both sides of the ball. The Bengals are not playing great either, but they will win their first playoff game since 1990.

Detroit at New Orleans: Over 58 – The Saints are favored by 10.5. I do expect them to win, but that’s a big number, particularly considering how many points Detroit is capable of putting on the board. So I’d have a hard time putting much on the spread. But that does put the over squarely in play. Detroit has been at 34 or higher in three of their last four games. The Saints average 40 at home this season and have exceeded 40 in four of their last six. If they get close to that number this should go over comfortably.

Atlanta (+3) at New York Giants – The Falcons ended the season with a better record (10-6 vs 9-7) than the Giants and they accomplished that task in a more competitive division. Save for a bad game against surging New Orleans, the Falcons finished the season on a pretty good run the last four games as well. New York looked good against Dallas Sunday night and they will be a worthy foe, but the Falcons will pull the upset.

Pittsburgh (+7.5) at Denver – The Steelers don’t enter the playoffs on a good run by any stretch, but let’s face it. Denver doesn’t belong in the playoffs. They backed in because the AFC West is the worst division in football. Tim Tebow looked terrible the last month of the season. And Pittsburgh is pretty darn good at stopping the run, which is the one thing Denver does competently on offense. Six-game winning streak aside, I don’t think the Broncos are a very good team and I don’t expect them to stay competitive in this game. Once Denver is eliminated the real playoffs can start.