Draft day is approaching and that will present an entirely new collection of topics for debate. But for now, the bulk of the free agents with an opportunity to heavily impact fantasy football drafts and seasons have landed. As such, we thought it was time for Zoneblitz to revisit Ryan Boser, sports blogger and fantasy writer for the Bruno Boys.

Here are Boser’s thoughts on how free agency has affected the 2012 fantasy scene so far.

Zoneblitz: What are your thoughts on Peyton Manning going to Denver and what does it mean for the fantasy prospects of his teammates, who likely will no longer be required to catch passes with their feet?

Boser: Come Week one, the aging Manning will be 20 months removed from his last NFL snap. We’re in uncharted territory with the nature of this injury, so I’m treading lightly, but if he passes the eye test in the preseason, you can expect fantasy drafters to make Demaryius Thomas this year’s Jimmy Graham (i.e. everybody’s favorite “sleeper” who’s not really a sleeper). Thomas overtook Eric Decker late last season — in his last seven games, he scored four touchdowns and averaged 9.3 targets, 5.0 catches and 106.4 yards per contest.

With Tim Tebow.

You may have to pay low-end WR1 money for Thomas in your auctions. While he could certainly justify the compensation, Eric Decker is shaping up as the better draft-day value. Third receiver Andre Caldwell may be the true sleeper in the passing game. The Broncos have a logjam at tight end (Jacob Tamme, Joel Dreessen, Virgil Green and Julius Thomas), and are likely to employ a RBBC in the backfield, so it’s all about Manning and the wideouts.

Zoneblitz: Tampa signed Vincent Jackson and Carl Nicks. What do you think of Jackson in 2012 and how does his signing affect other Bucs?

Boser: First, there’s a steep drop-off from Philip Rivers to Josh Freeman. Second, there’s no Antonio Gates to distract defenses in Tampa Bay. Third, new head coach Greg Schiano likes to run, and the Bucs (with pick number five) look like a probable landing spot for Trent Richardson in the draft. For all these reasons, I’m down on Jackson—he’s a low-level fantasy WR2 for me. Kellen Winslow and Mike Williams can expect more room but fewer looks, resulting in a value push. Arrelious Benn probably falls off the radar.

The additions of Jackson and Nicks will make the Bucs more competitive, which is a blessing for LeGarrette Blount (if the Bucs pass on Richardson), as he watched from the sidelines anytime the team fell behind last season. Freeman’s the only clear-cut upgrade here, but I still don’t like him as anything more than a high-end QB2.

Zoneblitz: What are the fantasy ramifications of Peyton Hillis joining Kansas City?

Boser: Devastating. Any hope for Jamaal Charles’ making a triumphant return from his ACL was squashed with the addition of the 250-lb. battering ram. Unlike Thomas Jones, Hillis is a legitimate “thunder” to Charles’ “lightening,” and while this tandem is great for the Chiefs, it’s a nightmare for fantasy owners. Hillis was no beacon of health himself last season, so this is shaping up as a volatile fantasy situation in which either back could explode, disappear or limp off on any given week. Over the last four seasons, 49% of Dwayne Bowe’s touchdowns have come from inside the 10 yard line, so the addition of another red zone threat certainly doesn’t help his prospects, either. Finally, Matt Cassel remains waiver wire fodder.

Zoneblitz: Mike Tolbert signed in Carolina adding a third cog to what already was a messy backfield situation for fantasy purposes. What are your thoughts on the draftability of the Panthers’ backfield?

Boser: Actually, Tolbert is a fourth cog. In addition to the 50-50 split between DeAngelo Williams and Jonathan Stewart, Cam Newton scored an NFL record 14 rushing touchdowns from the quarterback position last year. For these reasons, expectations were already low for Williams and Stewart. Adding Tolbert at fullback further muddies the water. It’s Newton who stands to lose the most—a decline in rushing scores was already inevitable and it’s now obvious that the team will look to protect him from the abuse of short-yardage duties. Below are 2011 rushing touchdown totals from inside the 10-yard line, further illustrating Newton’s surefire scoring decrease.

Cam Newton: 9 (of 14)
Mike Tolbert: 7 (of 8)
Jonathan Stewart: 3 (of 4)
DeAngelo Williams: 2 (of 7)

Translation: A great deal of Newton’s fantasy value came from heavy usage near the stripe, where Tolbert excels. The hope is that he’ll progress enough as a passer to offset the rushing decline. Tolbert will notch a handful of short scores, but won’t get enough touches to be viable. Williams can score from distance so, on paper, his modest value will be less affected by Tolbert’s presence than Stewart’s. A Stewart trade would certainly clear things up for fantasy footballers.

Zoneblitz: Are there any fantasy-worthy players in Miami with Brandon Marshall gone and Matt Moore still playing quarterback?

Boser: Something finally clicked for Reggie Bush last season, and while I’m still a bit skeptical, he’s worthy of fantasy RB2 consideration. Word out of Miami is that the Dolphins plan to get more creative with him this season (i.e. better utilization his pass-catching abilities).

Zoneblitz: Likewise, how do you view the Bears now that they have added Brandon Marshall and Michael Bush to Matt Forte and Jay Cutler, who had really stepped up his game before getting hurt?

Boser: Jay Cutler’s best professional season came as a Denver Bronco in 2008, when he connected with Brandon Marshall 104 times. I’d be a lot more excited about this reunion if Brandon Marshall wasn’t a woman-beating menace to society. But he is. Cutler and Marshall were a legitimate fantasy QB1/WR1 tandem when they last played together, but the safe play is to target Cutler as a QB2 and Marshall as a WR2 in drafts. If you slough the quarterback position in your draft and are looking to pair a low-end QB1 with a high-end QB2, Cutler’s an ideal target.

Matt Forte has several red flags for me. It took a contract year for him to finally dominate consistently: red flag. He’s averaged just six touchdowns over the past three seasons: red flag. Michael Bush is a short-yardage stud and the league’s best backup: red flag. Forte should still be drafted as an RB1, but if he ends up holding out, I may cross him off my list altogether — running back holdouts never end well. Per usual, I’ll target Bush as an RB3/4 or mandatory handcuff, stash him in my back pocket and know that I’m sitting on a potential RB1.

Zoneblitz: What are the fantasy ramifications of the trade that is expected to net Washington Robert Griffin III and of the signings of Pierre Garcon and Josh Morgan?

Boser: Last season, Cam Newton took everything we thought we knew about rookie quarterbacks, crumpled it up and threw it out the window. The scary part is that RGIII is a much more polished passing prospect than Newton. His mobility is a great fit for Mike Shanahan’s West Coast Offense, and I view him as a fantasy QB2 who could quickly move into QB1 territory. Garcon is a complementary receiver and Washington will quickly realize that paying him a stupid amount of money won’t change that. Inconsistent hands and route running make for inconsistent fantasy production. He has the feel of a guy who will “pop” about once a month without any modicum of predictability.

Josh Morgan is just a guy. But Fred Davis gets an uptick and should settle in to mid-level TE1 territory.

Zoneblitz: Do the defections of Robert Meachem and Carl Nicks hurt the draft status of Drew Brees or any of the remaining Saints?

Boser: Nah. Ben Grubbs was signed to replace Nicks, and Meachem was an ancillary piece to that passing game. If I were worried about anything—and I’m not—it would be a potential holdout and the absence of Sean Payton. Brees is a savvy vet, so if anything, I’ll use these distractions as a tiebreaker between Brees and Aaron Rodgers.

Zoneblitz: What other players do you see still on the market who could dramatically influence fantasy rankings?

Boser: None, unless something were to happen with restricted free agent Mike Wallace. I see a bunch of broken down runners who are 29 going on 40, such as Cedric Benson, Ryan Grant and Joseph Addai.