Just a quick post, as we need to get these up before the game starts tonight–we both continued our brutal seasons last week, each going 1-3, and both hitting our upsets of the week. So as long as we’re betting 5x the amount on our upsets as our regular bets, we’re doing good, right? So Andy is now 7-17 on the year, while I am 11-13.

Here we go again, on our own…

Tony

Cleveland  (+2.5) @ Indianapolis – The Browns defense has been better with Joe Haden back, and might take Andrew Luck and Reggie Wayne out of the game. I think the Browns win outright, but the moneyline isn’t good enough to be the upset of the week with some of the other games out there this week.

New England (-12) vs. NY Jets – As much as I’m tempted to take the Jets (+400) in this one, I just don’t see it. Bill Belichek hates this team too much.

Arizona @ Minnesota: Over 40 – This is my pick that never will happen, so might as well bet it happens. Sixty percent of the time, it works every time. Keeping in mind that this is me including the home team in a bet, which I know I never should do…

Upset of the Week: Seattle (+380) over San Francisco – The Seahawks have the defense to completely shut down San Francisco. The 49ers have the defense to completely shut down the Seahawks. In the end, it seems the Seahawks stay in games, and win at the end–and it also seems that a lot of Thursday night games don’t seem to go the way people expect.

Andy

Baltimore (+6.5) at Houston – Ray Lewis, out. Lardarius Webb, out. Terrell Suggs, still out (maybe?). Ed Reed, hurting. Haloti Ngata, hurting. The Ravens’ injury report reads like a Pro Bowl roster. Yet this is a well-coached, prideful team and I expect they will find a way to keep this game close. Had the line stayed at the four points it opened at, I’m not sure I would have taken this one, but at 6.5 I’ll roll the dice. It’s time for Joe Flacco and Ray Rice to earn their keep, though. This once-unbendable defense needs the offense more than ever.

Arizona at Minnesota: Under 40 – Arizona games have gone under in five of the first six games and the Cardinals’ defense has held opponents below 20 points in five of six, as well. Minnesota is designed at least partially to feel comfortable in grind-em-out football games that are heavy on the run. I would expect this to end up being a 19-16 game where the field goal kickers end up being the heroes and the goats.

Green Bay (-5.5) at St. Louis – They tried being more balanced and didn’t really end up with much to show for it. Last week Aaron Rodgers went back to being a gunslinger and he threw six touchdowns. The Packers have started their roll and St. Louis is just the next team in the way. Green Bay is built almost more like a turf team anyway, so going to the Edward Jones Dome or whatever they are calling it in St. Louis these days will feel like a slice of home. Packers win big.

Upset of the week: Tennessee (+165) at Buffalo – I thought heading into the season that Tennessee was actually going to be pretty tough. Of course I also thought Chris Johnson was going to have a comeback season. But the Titans started to show some signs of coming around last week against Pittsburgh. It helps that Kenny Britt appears to be back to something resembling full speed. And Buffalo remains an enigma, having given up in their six games 48, 17, 14, 52, 45 and 16. If the Titans can get somewhere right in the middle of that spread, I think they have a pretty good shot to win this game.