Sure, when I go to Vegas, everything is normal, but the week after I leave all hell breaks loose.

“Books get destroyed,” screams the headline of a VegasInsider.com story that estimates gamblers took the city’s establishments for $7 million to $9 million over the weekend due to the success players had in betting favorites on parlay cards.

Nobody is going to feel sorry for Las Vegas sports books, however. Whether they lost $9 million or not, over time they’ll do fine. And they still did better than Tony and I did on our bets, which have been a struggle all season long.

I got a 2-2 for the week that probably would have netted a small profit with my success in nailing the upset of the week, Tampa over Oakland. It wasn’t a big spread, but the Raiders never should have been favored in that game, in my humble opinion.

Tony was 1-3, hitting only the Indianapolis win over Miami. So, for the season, Tony is a dismal 14-22 while I am a slightly even more pathetic 13-23.

So here’s your next chance to win money by doing the opposite of what we suggest…

Tony

Tampa Bay (-3) vs San Diego – Combine a west coast team that has already been struggling (save for their game against the Chiefs) flying east, facing a hot Buccaneers team, and you’ve got a recipe for disaster. Throw in Norv Turner, and you’ve got an even easier cover.

Houston (+1) at Chicago – I’ve seen this game range from a pick’em to -1.5 for the Bears, which I just don’t get, outside of the fact that it is in Chicago, since Chicago hasn’t really beaten any significant teams yet this year. Their opponents have a record of 11-19 going into their games when they face the Bears, and the seven teams they’ve beaten have an overall record of 20-29, with only the surprise Indianapolis Colts (whom the Bears opened the season against) having a winning record. Realistically, the Texans haven’t done as much as their 7-1 record indicates either (14-14 opponents record when the Texans faced them, 25-32 overall record for teams beaten), but they absolutely dismantled the 6-2 Baltimore Ravens, and handled the Denver Broncos as well. Both teams single loss is against the Packers, the difference being that the Texans lost when Aaron Rodgers was hitting on all cylinders, and the Bears lost when the Packers were struggling to start the season. Add in Jay Cutler, who tends to fold in the spotlight, and a lack of depth of weapons to attack the strong Texans defense, and I think things start to come back to the norm for the Bears this week.

Atlanta at New Orleans: Over 53.5 – The biggest over/under of the week, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it’s is blown away—two teams with powerful offenses that have a lot less interest in playing defense. Then again, this is maybe the kind of game that ends up being a 13-9 snoozefest for that same reason…

Upset of the week: Cincinnati (+180) vs. New York Giants – I don’t really like many upsets this week (the Texans are paying at best Even money despite being the underdog), so I’ll go out on a limb and grab the Bengals, whom I was tempted (although ultimately did not)  to take in our straight up picks. The only other one that jumped out at me at all was the Rams (+440) at San Francisco, as the Rams have surprised me this year in that they haven’t completely sucked, and at +440 I would consider a small bet on.

Andy

Denver (-5) at Carolina – Carolina is 1-3 at home. The Broncos have won four of five both straight up and against the spread and three of those wins have come by double digits. The exception was last week’s game against Cincinnati, but that was more because the Bengals were able to sneak 23 points on the board than any failings on Denver’s part. The Broncos are about to establish themselves as the class of a weak AFC West and as one of the top two or three teams in the AFC. Carolina is the next victim.

Dallas at Philadelphia: Under 44.5 – Since looking so good on opening day, Dallas has broken 20 points just twice in its last seven games. Philadelphia has been held under that same threshold five of the last six games. My brother would argue that means both teams will explode for 30, but these underachieving teams are being let down by their offenses more than their defenses. I have no idea who is going to win this game, but I’m not going to expect to see a lot of fireworks while it is being determined.

Baltimore (-7.5) vs Oakland – The Ravens defense is hurting but they get the gift of the Oakland Raiders this week. Carson Palmer might be able to throw the ball some, but he’s not likely going to get much help from a run game missing Darren McFadden and Mike Goodson, both of whom are likely to miss the game with high ankle sprains. This doesn’t necessarily feel like a gruesome blowout to me, but Baltimore beat Cleveland by 10 on the road last week, a result that will probably be mirrored fairly closely by this game.

Upset of the week: New Orleans (+115) vs Atlanta – Tony took the over. I don’t blame him. The Saints defense can’t stop anyone on the ground or through the air. But this is a division game, a rivalry game and a home game for the Saints, who can make their season with an upset. There is little supporting the idea that the Saints will win this game. I’m actually stunned the moneyline isn’t larger for New Orleans. But the Saints have won 9 of 11 in this series and have either swept or split with the Falcons every year since 2005. This is more of a gut feeling than anything else. Atlanta is undefeated, but has not played like a team that is a threat to go 16-0 and this is the type of game a close-to-great team can sometimes lose.

To see our picks for the week, click this link.