I’m not going to say the Atlanta Falcons are a bad team. At 9-1 they deserve more respect than that, but they may be the least convincing 9-1 team I’ve seen in awhile.

The offense remains explosive, but the team lost five picks to Arizona at home last weekend in a game that shouldn’t have been as close as four points. The run game is nonexistent and now news has leaked that an already injury-tainted offensive line will now be down Joe Hawley for four games due to a violation of the league’s substance abuse policy.

This isn’t a good thing for a team whose top runner has put up just 61 yards in the last two games. The defense isn’t much better either. LaRod Stephens-Howling broke the century mark and scored against this tackling-challenged bunch.

Truth be told, Atlanta’s impressive record has been built on close wins against less-than-stellar opponents. Six wins have been by a touchdown or less. And some of those victories have come against Kansas City, San Diego, Washington, Oakland, Philadelphia, Dallas and Arizona.

I know they can only play the teams on their schedule. They do deserve credit for winning those close games and I do think that is the sign of a good team. I do think Atlanta is a top three or four team in the NFC, as well. But the loss to New Orleans and the close call against Arizona leave me and others wondering just what this team is going to look like come crunch time.

Do they take the next step? Or is this again a team that will rack up wins during the regular season only to get crushed when the competition improves? The next chance to prove something comes against Tampa this weekend. While I don’t want to give anything away, check out our picks and our bets to see how I think this game is going to go…

Broncos may not miss McGahee: The carnage just keeps coming. Training rooms across the NFL have been filling up the last couple weeks and the staff in Denver is as busy as any. The Broncos took a hit when they learned that Willis McGahee tore his MCL Sunday.

I’m a fan of the Bronco vet, who seems to just keep pumping out solid-but-unspectacular results year after year. However, outside of his presence as an experienced veteran, I’m not sure the Broncos are going to miss him much over the next few weeks.

I’ve become a big fan of Ronnie Hillman, the explosive rookie who has been listed as McGahee’s top backup for several weeks. He seems to have a burst the veteran is lacking. And he’s a good receiver out of the backfield as well.

With his combo platter of abilities – and coach John Fox says he’s getting better in pass protection as well – Hillman may actually be a better fit in a Peyton Manning-led offense than the somewhat less-dimensional McGahee anyway. Heading into the stretch run would I rather have them both? Absolutely. But given my choice, I’d have started playing Hillman more and more anyway.

What’s up with the Lions?: I predicted heading into the season that Detroit would take a slight slide back during the 2012 season, finishing in third place in the NFC North. It was one of the few things I’ve been right on so far.

This team has a fair amount of talent, but the immaturity shown by several players who got arrested in the offseason has carried over to the season. The latest episode happened Sunday with Titus Young, whose transgressions have gotten him benched for Thanksgiving’s matchup against Houston.

I watched that game Sunday against Green Bay and was again unimpressed with an offense that has too much talent to struggle as often as it does. One guy who is not struggling, however, is last year’s first round draft pick Nick Fairley. He showed up early and often in that game and reportedly did the week before as well.

SideLion Report says the team has to make him a full-time starter even when Corey Williams returns and I agree completely. Fairley and Ndamukong Suh can be a dominant pairing on the inside of the defensive line, when both are playing with their heads together. And Williams can be a fantastic role-playing swingman on the defensive line. There’s some depth to be had on this roster, but Fairley has to be on the field.

No Gronk, No Problem?: When I first saw this headline at Pats Pulpit I was dumbfounded. How could New England not miss the best or second best tight end in the league? But Alec Shane makes a decent case that the Patriots were prepared for a scenario in which one or both of their star tight ends went down for an extended period this season.

He also makes a pretty decent case that New England may have a decent competitive advantage heading into the playoffs if Hernandez and his counterpart, Aaron Hernandez, are healthy at the same time late in the season (He also has a pretty good line about women and nurse outfits).

I don’t think Gronkowski’s injury is a good thing for the Pats. It makes a challenging road that much tougher throughout the rest of the regular season. But it’s in the playoffs where the success of the Patriots’ season will be determined and as long as those guys are back healthy, New England can compete with anyone the AFC has to offer.

Just exactly who are the Bears?: Chicago just put up its second clunker in a row, losing 32-7 on Monday night against San Francisco. I could hear the argument a week earlier when the Bears lost to the Texans by a touchdown that they might have won the game had Jay Cutler not gotten hurt. Not this time. A 32-7 loss to a second-year quarterback making his first start is a bad sign. Colin Kaepernick skewered a Bears defense that just a couple weeks ago was the toast of the league.

I do think the Bears are a good team – most likely even a playoff team. But they’re not a great team and the offensive line, the lack of a second consistent productive receiver and yes, an aging defense that can be fantastic but can also have letdowns, will likely keep this team from making a deep run in the postseason.

And they also need Cutler back. Desperately. Jason Campbell is better than the hacks the Bears sent out as backups last year, but he’s not going to get much done behind this sieve of a line. Chicago looks again like second best in the NFC North.