NFL Best Bets: Week 13 – 2012
We’re getting into the latter stages of the regular season and, with that, come rivalry games and divisional contests that are notoriously difficult to pick. And yes, that is a blatant excuse for why last week – which I predicted upfront would be a tough one – didn’t go so well.
Tony managed a split. His 2-2 mark brought him to 22-26 for the season. I hit my upset – Washington over Dallas on Thanksgiving – but after two straight 3-1 weeks, I managed only a push and two losses in my other bets during week 12. So I’m at 20-27-1 on the year.
Week 13 is tough again, but hopefully it can’t be any worse than last week. Here goes:
Jacksonville (+6) @ Buffalo – I was tempted to pick Jacksonville straight up in this game, but didn’t since they are going on the road. But they have (shockingly) played better football with Chad Henne at the helm, and last week beat the 4-6 Titans, so there is no reason that the 4-7 Bills should be 6-point favorites.
Cincinnati (-2.5) over San Diego – It’s in San Diego, and I suppose my betting on the Bengals will be the kiss of death for them, but I still don’t trust any Norv Turner led team. Even at home.
New England at Miami: Over 51 - With the way the Patriots are firing, I’m surprised this line isn’t closer to 56-58. They might score 51 themselves.
Upset of the Week: Indianapolis Colts (+190) over Detroit – Much like Jacksonville, I see no reason why the Lions are more than a 3 point favorite in this game, even at home. Unlike Jacksonville, I actually picked the Colts to win outright, so they get the upset nod at +190 over the +210 Jaguars.
New York Giants at Washington: Under 51 – The last game these two played started a stretch of games where Washington has gone under the number in four of five. The Giants have gone under in five of six. My brother might say this calls for a “do the opposite” bet, but I’m going with the trend.
Indianapolis (+4.5) at Detroit – Really? Detroit has done anything to warrant being favored in this game? The Colts have won five of six, including two of three road games. Andrew Luck looks great. The Lions are coming off of a Thanksgiving loss in a game they should have won that pretty much put a dagger in any remaining hope for the postseason. Calvin Johnson is playing out of his mind right now and the Lions will score some points against a not very good Indy defense, but the Colts will definitely cover the 4.5, if not win outright.
Green Bay (-8) vs Minnesota – The spread in this game is actually moving toward Minnesota. Green Bay will be angry after getting shellacked against the Giants on Sunday night. Weird things have happened in recent years for Minnesota at Lambeau Field, even when the teams were more evenly matched. Right now they aren’t. Packers win comfortably.
Upset of the Week: Washington (+125) vs NY Giants – My brother got his picks done earlier than I did this week and I didn’t want to pick the same upset he did. So I’m going with one of the more intriguing Monday night games of the season. Robert Griffin III looks to me like he’s really starting to get it. Washington’s defense I weak against the pass, which should play into the Giants’ hands. But I’m not convinced Eli Manning is completely healthy. He was miserable for three weeks before the bye and I’m not convinced he’s entirely back. Should be a fun one but I’m taking a shot on the Skins.
To see our straight up picks for week 13, click here.