NFL Playoffs: Wild Card Weekend Picks and Bets

The chili is in the crock pot. The logs will soon be ready for the fire. And the regular season is over. It’s time to separate the contenders from the pretenders. It’s time for playoff football.

It’s well documented that while our picks during the season were ok, our bets during the season were terrible. So even though we did ok with a different betting system for college bowl games, we decided to mix things up again for the NFL playoffs, given that there are fewer games to choose from. So, our picks are below. Let us know in comments who you think is going to win this week and who is likely to emerge with the Lombardi Trophy in a month.

Each regular bet will be worth 1 point, and our best bet from each game will be worth two additional points.

Our game takes:

Cincinnati at Houston:

Tony: I could easily see Cincinnati winning this game, but ultimately I do think that Houston has more talent on the offensive side of the ball. The Texans could easily jump out to a lead early, and use Arian Foster to burn time off the clock, and JJ Watt can disrupt the Bengals passing game. Of course, the exact opposite could happen as well, but with the game in Houston, I’ll give the edge to the Texans.

Andy: I see this game as a tossup. Houston is the more talented team, but the Bengals come in on a big-time roll. Houston won this matchup last year, but I don’t think Cincinnati is in the same “glad to be here” mode. It’ll have to be a low-scoring game if the Bengals are going to win, but the way Houston has been playing lately I don’t think that’s farfetched.

Minnesota at Green Bay:

Tony: Alright, normally I don’t like to pick the Vikings, just because I hate to lose a pick AND have my team lose the game. But it’s playoff time, and I’d rather have bragging rights over some of the Packer Backers that I know in my life. Plus, I really think the Vikings can win this game. The Packers have seemingly been playing with fire all year, with offensive performances that were just barely good enough (or not), and defensive performances that ranged from lackluster to terrible, including the 409 rushing yards they gave up to the Vikings. Add in Mason Crosby, and I think the Vikings have a real shot at winning this one too.

Andy: Think back to last week. Adrian Peterson goes for 199 yards. Christian Ponder is fantastic. The Vikings’ defense holds Green Bay to several three-and-outs to start the game and builds a solid lead. Ponder squeezes a pass in between defenders into Michael Jenkins for a touchdown. The Metrodome crowd was crazy all day long. And the Vikings win by three on a last second field goal. Everything went right. I don’t think this game turns into a blowout. The Vikings are playing too well. But to expect all the breaks to happen again is unrealistic.

Indianapolis at Baltimore:

Tony: This one may come down to the emotion of Ray Lewis vs. the emotion of the Colts and Chuck Pagano. And on that, I’m not sure which way you go. But put the game outside, and add in the youth of the Colts, and I think that Lewis and the Ravens will get one more stab at a Super Bowl Party.

Andy: While Baltimore will be playing with added emotion trying to send Ray Lewis out with a Super Bowl win (assuming he really plans to retire, though I guess his teammates wouldn’t know if he doesn’t). But I think the emotion factor my brother mentions above will cancel out for both teams. What I’m curious about in this game is quarterback play. Does rookie Andrew Luck overcome the pressure of his first playoff start? Does Joe Flacco take the next step toward becoming an elite quarterback? I don’t think Luck gets flustered. And I don’t think Flacco is elite. I have Baltimore winning, but I think it’s a nail-biter.

Seattle at Washington:

Tony: If this game was in Washington (state), it would be a completely different story. But being in Washington (city) means the Seahawks are traveling east, which is always hard for west coast teams. The Seahawks did pull off two wins while heading east this year, but wins against the Panthers and Bills are hardly anything to brag about, and the loss to Miami (and even Detroit, which isn’t east coast) are more telling of the Seahawks road concerns. This should be a good game, but ultimately I think RG3 and the Redskins can pull it off.

Andy: I am a huge fan of RGIII. He’s been amazing to watch all season and he seems like a good dude too. I’m hoping he continues to become the face of the league for a decade to come. That said, I’ve been saying all season long that the Redskins are a season away from being a truly good team. They got to the playoffs before I expected, but there are still flaws on this team, particularly defensively where the team is missing a couple of its stars and where it has holes even when full strength. Seattle definitely plays better at home, but its own rookie quarterback has been getting better and better. And the defense is for real. With a secondary that is back to full strength, I think the Seahawks take this game even though it’s on the road. Get used to seeing these two teams in the postseason, however. They’re both built to be competitive for years to come.