Bet the Mortgage: Week 3, 2013 NFL Best Bets
Last week Tony waited until just before kickoff to make his bets. Not sure if he figured it would help his accuracy or not, but it seems like it just gave him more time to over think.
He again hit just one of four bets, dropping him to 2-6 for the season. He’s down to $9,334 from our $10,000 starting point.
I’m not doing real well – another 2-2 mark put me at 4-4 for the season. But I’m at least hitting the bigger ones. I’ve added $687 to my $10,000 start.
Tony is heading off to a bachelor party. He promises to get his picks added in here at some point. But I wanted to get this posted, because I’ve got a betting interest in the Thursday night game. So, here goes week three.
UPDATE: It’s not so much improving my accuracy, it’s that after two weeks, I clearly would make more money if I didn’t make bets.
$250 – Minnesota (-6.5, -110) vs Cleveland – The Vikings are my home team and I generally avoid betting on or against the team whenever possible. And up until yesterday I had less confidence than most that the Vikings would win this game – see week three picks. But in the last 12 hours or so the Browns announced that third-stringer Brian Hoyer would start at QB and that second-year first-round running back Trent Richardson had been traded. That has to be a morale-sucking move for a team I thought had some promise at the beginning of 2013. So I think if Minnesota can just get a lead early in this one they can ride Adrian Peterson and cruise to victory.
$300 – Detroit at Washington: (Over 49, -110) – If forced at gunpoint to figure out who is going to win this game I’d take Detroit in a coin flip. There wouldn’t be any money coming out of my pockets though. But I do think there will be a lot of points scored. Washington has been gashed twice and the Stafford-to-Megatron duo is looking strong again. And the Redskins have been adding a lot of garbage time points. Here’s saying they put it all together this weekend in a 60-plus point shootout.
$250 – New England (-7, -110) vs Tampa Bay - The Buccaneers are another team that just seems to be struggling to figure it out right now. Most reports indicate the team is about at the end of its rope with starting QB Josh Freeman. Another rough start could signify the beginning of the Mike Glennon era. New England on the other hand seems to me to be right on the brink of breaking out. So far they’ve done just enough to win both games so far. You’ve got to figure there’s a breakout game coming. I say it’s this week.
$150 – Upset of the week: $150 – Kansas City (Moneyline +160) at Philadelphia – Andy Reid is returning to Lincoln Financial Field where he spent the last 64 years as coach of the Eagles. He’s got the Chiefs playing inspired football and they’ll want to win the emotional homecoming for their boss. Philly’s offense is exciting and up tempo and Chip Kelly will eventually have something there. But this team still has plenty of holes and they’re going up against a team filled with several 2012 defensive Pro Bowl players. This one smells like an upset.
$175 – Minnesota (-7.5, +120) vs Cleveland – I normally really don’t like betting on (or against) the home town. But clearly my betting rules aren’t helping after two weeks. I found a site that gave a little different odds than Andy for the game, just by giving one more point. At this point, I need to catch up. The Vikings haven’t looked good, but the Browns have looked worse, and they just traded away their main offensive threat. They’re starting their third string QB this week as well–which frankly makes this a no win game for the Vikings, which they often seem to find way to lose. But I’ll take a chance.
$200 – Chicago (+2, -110) at Pittsburgh – The Bears have looked surprisingly competent this year under Marc Trestman. The Steelers have not. Even in Pittsburgh, I’m not sure I trust the Steelers this year. Even with one of (in my opinion) the best coaches in the league, they’ve been teetering on the edge of falling off a cliff for a couple of years now, this might be the year.
$200 – San Diego at Tennessee: (Over 43.5, -110) – I almost took the (+3) Chargers, but traveling east scares me, so I’ll just rely on the the suddenly rejuvenated Chargers offense to put up at least 27, and the Titans to cobble together at least 17.
$100 – Upset of the week: Indianapolis (Moneyline +350) at San Francisco – Andy already hit his upset, so it would be great to hit something big here. Put this in my category of something I don’t really expect to happen, but more likely than the (+970) Raiders or (+2100 on the one site I could find) Jaguars. Maybe Andrew Luck playing against his college head coach, the 49ers coming off the ass kicking in Seattle, and Aldon Smith causing a fairly significant distraction can swing things my way.