Bet the Mortgage: Week 5, 2013 NFL Best Bets
After amassing a commanding lead, Andy went big in Week 4–and his losses put him back within reach for my bets in Week 5.
Andy lost $800 on the Bears, Miami and St. Louis/San Francisco, only picking up one win in the terrible Cardinals/Bucs game.
Meanshile, I plodded along at 2-2 for the week–bot lost my two bigger bets ($200 on the Bears straight up and $300 on the Bungles).
Here’s where we stand.
|Week 4||Season||Week +/-||Bankroll||+/-|
$250 – Denver at Dallas: (Over 56.5, -110) – Eventually the Broncos will stumble for a week and someone besides Peyton Manning will have to win a game for them, but I don’t think that happens this week. All four Denver games thus far have gone over with the lowest output being 37 points. Say Dallas holds the Broncos to that same 37. Nobody has scored fewer than 20 points against Denver yet. Dallas will hit that mark as well.
$300 – Green Bay (-7, -110) vs Detroit – The Lions dispatched the Bears last week with uncharacteristic ease. But they haven’t won at Lambeau Field since, I think, 1874. The Packers are coming off of a bye week. And let’s face it – Detroit is better, but they’re far from a great team at this point. This would be a tremendous win for the Lions if they were to pull it off, but I think Green Bay is going to come out angry and prepared and win this handily.
$200 – New Orleans (Pick ‘em, -110) at Chicago – I didn’t think people were giving Miami enough credit last week when they went into the Superdome undefeated for a tilt with New Orleans. Turns out the oddsmakers were correct. I am now a believer in the Saints. The offense is as good as it was two years ago and the defense is aggressive, fast and dangerous. They may be slowed a bit by the natural grass, but I think they’re going to handle Chicago anyway.
$150 – Upset of the week: Jacksonville (Moneyline +420) at St. Louis – Okay, the Jags are four for four so far. They’ve played four games and they’ve been dominated each time. Do I really think they’re going on the road and beating St. Louis? No. But honestly I don’t see many upset opportunities this week. Arizona over Carolina? Maybe. But the Cards just traded their left tackle. Baltimore over Miami? Conceivably. But the Ravens have been so up and down it’s hard to be confident in that bet. So I looked for a big number. The Rams haven’t exactly been blowing the doors off the Trans World Dome or whatever it’s called nowadays. If the Jags are going to steal one somewhere, this is as good a bet as any.
$150 – Philadelphia Eagles (+1, +105) @ NY Giants – Neither team has looked great, but it’s essentially a +105 payout for a pick’em game that I think will end up going Philly’s way. I would have considered it for a Moneyline bet, but at +110, I’ll give the extra +5 and take the cash if they manage to pull off the tie.
$200 – San Diego Chargers (-4, -110) @ Oakland Raiders – The Chargers have looked shockingly competent (imagine that, get rid of Norv Turner and things look better), despite the 2-2 record. They hit the road but stay in state, and head to Oakland, who has also looked better than expected, but has only beaten a Jacksonville team that Andy and I might be able to play for.
$400 – Denver Broncos @ Dallas Cowboys: (Over 56, -110) – Time to start going big or going home…or to the local loan shark. Or maybe just a pawn shop. I’m not confident enough in Denver to demolish a decent Cowboys team by 7 to 8.5 points, but if the Cowboys have a chance, they’re going to have to hang at least 35 on them. This one would probably be an over even at 66.
$150 – Upset of the Week: Detroit (Moneyline +270) over Green Bay – I didn’t pick this one outright, and I’m waffling a bit here as I type this given that the Pack are coming off a bye. But the Lions have looked better than I’ve given them credit for, despite some of their stupid mistakes. Playing outside at Green Bay won’t be easy, but they have the kind of team that could easily go into Green Bay and punch the Packers in the face. Or, if you’re Ndamukong Suh, in the groin. Again.
To see our straight up picks for the week, click here.