Predicting the 2015 Hall of Fame class

260 Comments

1. boknows34 on February 17, 2014 at 1:27 am

   I’m 100% on Tony’s final five. Seau is the first ballot lock and the other 4 will be from this year’s Top 10 with Haley getting the nod over Greene. In 2016 I see Greene, joining Brown and Favre with Warner hearing his name called in 2017. Pace is a guy I seeing waiting 2-3 years like Roaf. He doesn’t quite reach the levels of Ogden, Jones and Larry Allen.

   Not much love for Isaac Bruce? Certainly both he and Torry Holt should reach the Top 25 but I don’t see them progressing just yet. I dont see either jumping over Brown and certainly not Harrison. Davis and Atwater could sneak in as finalists but I fear they’d be stuck in that 10-15 range for the first cut.

   The bottom 5 of the finalists is tough. I’d love to see Steve Sabol and hopefully he’ll join his father sime day, probably early next decade. I’m confident in Andy’s picks of Seau (lock), Warner and Pace. The other two could go anywhere and I’m looking forward to see some new names hearing their case heard on Election Day. I’d be in favour of Jimmy Johnson over Tony Dungy. Johnson totally rebuilt the Cowboys into a dynasty and I give him credit for the Cowboys third title as Barry Switzer only had to steer a Ferrari he was handed the keys to and told not to crash it.

   Dungy, I feel, should’ve done more. He was fired from the Bucs and Gruden took that team over the hump a year later. For someone with a reputation of building a defense I felt Dungy’s D in Indianapolis was disappointing, especially when he walked into a job with Peyton Manning, Marvin Harrison and Edge James already established on offense. Not many coaches have such luck or luxury.

2. Paul on February 17, 2014 at 7:45 am

   No love for Edgerrin James (11th all time in rushing) to make the final 15? (and Tony simply copied my previously posted prediction HAHAHA)

3. Paul on February 17, 2014 at 7:50 am

   2015 Final 15 prediction

   Morton Anderson
   Jerome Bettis
   Tim Brown
   Edward DeBartolo, Jr.
   Tony Dungy
   Kevin Greene
   Charles Haley
   Marvin Harrison
   John Lynch
   Will Shields
   Junior Seau
   Kurt Warner
   Orlando Pace
   Isaac Bruce
   Edgerrin James.

   2015 Elected (5) Predictions
   Jerome Bettis
   Kevin Greene
   Charles Haley
   Marvin Harrison
   Will Shields

4. Corey on February 17, 2014 at 7:29 pm

   It looks like Charles Haley may finally get in next year, although I don’t think he should.

   Shields hopefully gets in in 2015. I don’t think Lynch gets in, but then again, someone from that Super Bowl 37 team has gotten in two years in a row. So you never know.

5. boknows34 on February 17, 2014 at 9:59 pm

   Ronde Barber should be the 3rd HOFer from that Bucs D. I’m not that high on Lynch. Reed, Polamalu and Dawkins were the top 3 safeties during that/this era. It’s tough enough as it is for a safety let alone someone who was no higher than 4th at best.

6. Robert Ewing on February 18, 2014 at 9:57 pm

   and why is that about Charles haley corey I tend to disagree

7. Corey on February 18, 2014 at 10:24 pm

   2/5 profile not the strongest. Never made an All Decade selection. Super Bowl wins are team efforts and there are players in the 100 sacks club higher up than Haley who are not enshrined. Pat Swilling had identical profiles with more sacks and a Defensive Player of the Year Award. Neil Smith was a 1/6, 2 Super Bowls and an All Decade. Kevin Greene 3/5, 160 sacks, 1990s All Decade. If Haley wasn’t on five Super Bowl winning squads, my guess is he would be lost in the shuffle.

8. Pau on February 19, 2014 at 11:48 am

   Haley was not just a member of 5 SB teams, he was a key member perhaps the best player on the defense of those teams and a player other teams had to game plan and account for. It is the lack of numbers including career sacks that has to date kept him from getting into the HOF, but the game, players and HOF are about more then just numbers but the impact certain players have.

9. Paul on February 19, 2014 at 2:20 pm

   Haley was more then simply a player on five Superbowl winning teams, he was a key player (perhaps the best defensive player) on all those teams and was a player teams consistently had to game plan for. The reason why he has not been elected to date is because of his weak 2/5 profile and lower total career sacks then other players, but that does not mean he should not eventually be elected.

10. Brad on February 26, 2014 at 3:16 pm

    London Fletcher is this years generation version of Jim Marshall but better(no knock on Jim). It hurts him greatly because Ray Lewis, Derrick Brooks, Brian Urlacher, and Zach Thomas were all in his era. I am for his enshrinement one day(London).

11. Justin on February 27, 2014 at 3:15 pm

    Brad, even as a long time Redskins fan, I cannot support London Fletcher for the hall of fame. He was an incredibly solid player. Often overlooked until the end of his career. But he was never in the discussion of the best player at his position in the NFL, which I consider a key component of gaining admission to the HOF. Besides Lewis, Brooks, Urlacher, and Thomas, you should also add at least Seau and Briggs as better players at basically the same position. I understand your comparison to Jim Marchall given the consecutive games streak, but a better comparison may be Sam Mills. An incredibly good player (and person) and an overacheiver who made all the teams he played on better. Unfortunately, that likely isn’t enough to get in the HOF.

    However, I will be cheering loudly when London enters the Redskins Ring of Honor. I only wish he had player his entire career in Washington. St. Louis and Buffalo should find a way of honoring London as well.

12. Paul on March 6, 2014 at 11:15 am

    I think Kurt Warner will become one of the most interesting cases over the next few years, and one of the hardest debates as a finalist in recent times on the HOF ballot. His career profile is really like no other recent, current or upcoming candidate that I can think of. An average HOF profile of 2/4, but with two MVPs, 3 SB appearances, SB win and MVP; no great career passing numbers, and a career with three outstanding years early in years 2-4, then a five year “dead zone” in the middle of his career, and closing with three great years in Arizona including the third SB appearance. So in a 12 year career, an even split of 6 great or outstanding seasons and 6 seasons of no major production or achievements, and to have those 6 great years in 3 year blocks early and late in career. Again I know of no other HOF candidate, especially at QB that has such a career path. I can see it being really challenging for HOF voters to assess his career and how to evaluate those two 6 year blocks and the impact of 6 average or poor seasons as half of his career and the five years right in the middle. Certainly his two MVPs, 3 SB appearances, and SB win/MVP will carry significance with many and get him into the room as a finalist starting with 2015, but how long it takes to get him elected could get very interesting. His one other advantage is the lack of recent QBs on the ballot, and with the exception of Favre no other HOF candidate QBs on the ballot over the next several years, which will keep his direct position competition limited. Again his case will make for one of the most challenging HOF candidate debates seen for some time. I can foresee election for Warner in 2017 or beyond, but the further it is pushed into 2020s it is likely he will start to face other QBs from the 2000s decade as they start to retire (Manning, Brees, Brady).

13. Rasputin on March 6, 2014 at 5:46 pm

    I think Kurt Warner eventually belongs in the HoF. He helped define his era, and has some of the best career peak/post season numbers in history. His second SB run should have sealed the deal. Maybe not first ballot, but he shouldn’t have to wait too long.

14. bachslunch on March 11, 2014 at 6:12 am

    Both Paul and Rasputin bring up good points. I’ve made Paul’s point more or less myself in past — no question Warner’s career is unique, probably most similar to Joe Namath’s (short career with a big peak, one SB win with Namath’s being more significant historically, compelling narrative beyond the stats). And no question Warner’s career is short and has that “dead zone,” which is not a plus. FWIW, Kiran Rasaretnam’s 2010 attempt to rank QB stats adjusted to era lists Warner 15th all-time in “best 4” seasons, putting him at the end of a line of HoF QBs (and Ken Anderson), and 14th in “best 7” seasons, which puts him within the latter part of a group of HoF QBs — so if one likes this ranking attempt, Warner’s got a solid HoF peak argument. The website:

    http://newqbrating.blogspot.com/

    Like Rasputin, I think Warner gets elected, though not “first ballot.” He’ll probably wait a couple years. Like Namath, I think the narrative will probably make a difference, and at least Warner’s peak is strong.

15. Brad on March 11, 2014 at 9:47 am

    Joe Namath was first to throw for 4k in a year and he led the league in yards per completion that year too. Not like he was completing 8 yard passes each time. Joe Namath got hurt a lot and had really bad knees; still managed to be at the top of the pass yard TD, completion charts for career when he retired. Namath’s peak wasn’t strong?

16. bachslunch on March 11, 2014 at 10:24 am

    Depends on whether you like Rasaretnam’s rankings or not. Namath comes up 66th in “best 4”, 67th in “best 7”, and 42nd in “best 10” in these lists — well below elite level though in the general region of Bobby Layne (another so-so stats guy in the HoF who has 2 NFL championship wins) and older-era HoF QBs like Bob Waterfield and Arnie Herber, and definitely above Terry Bradshaw (who has 4 SB wins).

    The link I gave above is more generalized for several of his studies — the one specifically for this approach is:

    http://newqbrating.blogspot.com/2010/04/c-scores-new-way-to-evaluate-pro.html

17. Paul on March 11, 2014 at 1:56 pm

    Beyond the numbers the narrative of any player (but especially QBs), including wins, SBs, impact to the game etc.. is an important factor to consider when debating HOF status

18. Rasputin on March 11, 2014 at 4:21 pm

    I wonder how high Tony Romo has climbed on those rankings since they were compiled after the 2009 season, bachslunch, particularly on C4. He was ranked 108. Although he hasn’t been to a Pro Bowl since then (he was screwed out of a couple), his completion and interception percentages have both improved since then, to the point where he now has four seasons with an interception percentage under 3%, and three years with one under 2%. Has that blogger released any updated stats?

19. bachslunch on March 12, 2014 at 5:54 am

    Unless there’s more than one person named Kiran Rasaretnam, he unfortunately appears to have passed away in 2011:

    https://www.casact.org/pubs/yearbook/obituaries.pdf

20. Paul on March 12, 2014 at 12:53 pm

    Looks like an interesting point in their HOF potential careers for three of the recent best pass rushers: Allen, Ware, and Peppers. Very similar careers numbers yet all could use a few more seasons of sacks and playoff success. Appears that Ware (IF he can stay healthy) may be in the best position to pad his HOF qualifications, especially if he signs with a serious playoff contender like Denver.

21. bachslunch on March 12, 2014 at 2:33 pm

    Here’s how the numbers run for these three so far:

    DeMarcus Ware: 9 years thus far, 4/7/00s, 117 sacks.
    Julius Peppers: 12 years thus far, 4/8/00s, 119 sacks.
    Jared Allen: 10 years thus far, 4/5/(10s?), 128.5 sacks.

    I think Peppers is already a HoF lock even if he retires tomorrow, having played 12 years. Ware and Allen are pretty much there now as well — and adding on even two or three more placeholder level seasons should absolutely, utterly guarantee election for them. Plus the HoF voters seem to love guys who pile up the sacks, and these three rank 12th, 17th, and 18th all time on the stat so far.

    Ware’s also likely going to be seen (fairly, I think) as the best OLB of his time, which is a further plus — his competition likely would be John Abraham, Lance Briggs, and Terrell Suggs, and his numbers look better than these folks:

    John Abraham: 14 years, 3/5/none, 133.5 sacks.
    Lance Briggs: 11 years, 2/7/none, 15 sacks.
    Terrell Suggs: 11 years, 1/6/none, 94.5 sacks.

    Dwight Freeney and Robert Mathis have been DEs most of their career, so they don’t count on the OLB list above.

22. Rasputin on March 12, 2014 at 2:57 pm

    That’s too bad, bachslunch. It’s an interesting analysis he developed though, and I wonder if someone will take it and run with it at some point.

23. Paul on March 12, 2014 at 3:33 pm

    At this point I am not sure any of them are a “HOF lock” including Peppers, as it certainly has taken Greene with 40+ more sacks and 3rd all time a while to get into the HOF. Peppers will get in as well Greene, but it may take 3-4 election years. I certainly think Allen is leaving a career short a few years and more sacks to build his case if in fact he retires now. If Ware can stay healthy and play at least 1-2 more years with Denver, adding 10-15 more sacks it would also really help his case to a more speedy election as he would end up around 130 career sacks and top 10 all time. They also are all three likely to appear on the HOF ballot within a few years, leading to a potential logjam.

24. Andy on March 12, 2014 at 3:36 pm

    Interesting discussion. Bachslunch, I think it’s going to be interesting in coming years to see how the passing era affects pass rushers. We’ve seen it with the WR numbers and discussed QBs and the different eras, but it would also seem to affect the defensive players. What’s the new standard for great sacks numbers? More passing = more opportunities for sacks. Does the threshold for induction go up accordingly?

25. Paul on March 12, 2014 at 7:24 pm

    Good point Andy and one I was considering. As we see many 900+ reception WRs and 10,000 yard RBs from the 2000s start to jam at the top of the career lists with some slow to be elected and some perhaps not to make the HOF, will the same happen to the 100+ sack DL and LBs from the 2000s?

26. bachslunch on March 13, 2014 at 7:15 am

    Paul, I’m thinking the term “lock” means for sure Julius Peppers will get in the HoF sometime during his regular candidacy, which will span a 20-year stretch once he’s eligible. I very seriously doubt he’ll be “first ballot” though unless he comes up as the best player in an unusually weak year for candidates. I think he’s looking at ca. 3-5 years wait most likely. But with the postseason honors totals he has amassed and the fact that his career is now up to 12 years, I don’t see how he won’t get in. Consider that Michael Strahan just got voted in on his second try with a profile of 5/7/00s (15 years played) while Peppers is now at 12 years and 4/8/00s.

    I think one of the reasons Kevin Greene is waiting a while despite his high lifetime sack total is that his postseason profile is 3/5/90s, actually not bad for an OLB for the time, but not top of the heap. But I think he’ll get in as well — it’s not unreasonable he’s waiting a bit. Peppers of course has a better postseason profile.

27. BSLO on March 16, 2014 at 10:25 am

    I like Seau, Shields, Harrison, Haley and Bettis for next year as well. I could see Greene hopping over Haley though. I have been predicting for years that he would jump over him, but for whatever reason, I am less sure now. Regardless, whichever of the two misses the cut should go in with the 2016 class. Pace will for sure be a finalist, but the other 3 I am less sure about. I am less high on Warner than most, but I really see him topping out at the semifinalist list. Holt and Bruce have no shot at induction for the next few years, so I would rather see some overlooked players toward the end of their modern era eligibility get a push. They both seem pretty likely to be semifinalists though.

    I don’t like the idea of John Lynch breaking the glass ceiling for safeties. He was never any better than the 3rd best defensive player on his team, but for whatever reason voters like him more than Atwater. I would like to see both make it to the finalist list next year. Getting a debate going on safeties would go a long way toward starting to break down the growing backlog at the position. I would like to see Atwater, Mecklenburg, and Tagliabue breakthrough over the three Rams.

    With regards to Allen, Peppers and Ware, I think all three are destined for the hall at some point during their 20 years as modern era guys. The one big advantage they will have is that they will likely jump right to the front of the pass rusher queue when they become eligible. With Haley and Greene likely to get in soon, there won’t be any long time candidates on the ballot when their time comes. Among their peers, I would take all three over Freeney (too inconsistent) and Abraham (not enough of a peak).

28. Paul on March 16, 2014 at 12:14 pm

    As a two time MVP plus 3 SBs, SB winner/MVP, Warner should have no problem getting onto finalist list for 2015 (especially considering that will be no other QBs), jsut will take him 2-4 years to actually get elected.

    Haley has been in the final 10 twice, Greene only once and while I heard and read plenty of distress about Haley again not getting in, I did not seem the same for Greene. I still think 2015 is the year Haley gets in with Greene surely to follow soon after.

29. BSLO on March 16, 2014 at 1:03 pm

    I disagree on Warner. I think he is looking at around a 5 year wait at least. He is definitely the best QB eligible, but to me he is very comparable to Charles Haley. One part of his resume is better than any other candidate, but there are parts of it that are just average. It depends on what the voters focus on. If they focus on the negatives, like they likely have with Terrell Davis, he is an easy bump from the semifinalist to finalist vote.

    I know that most QB’s have skated in, but like Haley, I see him having a slow build on his candidacy where he will spend a couple years at semi, then a couple at 15, and maybe a couple at 10.

    The reason I could see Haley getting leapfrogged by Greene is because he has been getting jumped over for years by his peers. He has always had vocal supporters, and was a semifinalist right away. Yet, he got passed over by Rickey Jackson and Chris Doleman, who came out of nowhere. Greene also had a slower start than him, but is now at the same spot. Unlike a guy like Reed, there is also no longer a logjam at his position that needs fixing. It is him and Greene, and they clearly enter this year as the 2nd and 3rd best players on the ballot. It will be interesting to see them going head to head this year, but I wouldn’t be surprised with either outcome.

30. Paul on March 16, 2014 at 8:08 pm

    After Favre there will be no other QBs on the ballot until the current players retire (they will not appear on the ballot for another 6+ years), so with 2 MVP awards and one SB/MVP I can not see Warner waiting more then 3-5 years, my sense is that he also will have the support of many of the voters.

    Haley’s vs Greene sort of reminds me of Carter/Reed/Brown in that support grew for a player over others from the same position over a number of years, I get the same feeling as to how support appears to be building for Haley with the other recent passing DE/LBs elected.

31. Brad on March 20, 2014 at 11:28 am

    I know they are completely different positions, but both pass rushers first. Jared Allen vs DeMarcus Ware. Are they treated according to position or what they primarily did? To me, it is a very difficult question.

32. Paul on March 20, 2014 at 1:19 pm

    As to Allen and Ware although both spent majority of their careers at different positions (Allen at DE and Ware at LB), I think they will be viewed as pass rushers more so then simply their respective positions. In recent years there seems to have been a grouping of the pass rushing specialists both at DE and LB on the HOF finalists lists. Although both certainly were strong at other aspects of their game (rush defense), both will be viewed and have earned post season awards due to their pass rushing. In less he has a change of heart, also looks like Allen may be done and retire this year, whereas Ware will play at least one more year, perhaps 2-3 years. So Allen would appear on the HOF ballot sooner.

33. Brad on March 20, 2014 at 3:03 pm

    Devin Hester just signed with Falcons. I view him 2 return TDs away from the HOF. WIth the rules chaning on KR, hard to imagine someone getting 21 total TDs. Just look at his first two years and then look at his seasons after that. Not too bad either way.

34. Paul on March 21, 2014 at 9:58 am

    I am not so sure that the HOF voters are close to a point where a return man is going to earn election. There have been several great returners in the HOF, including a few that held long term career and seasonal records and they have ever come close to election. I think it more likely that additional kickers , perhaps even another punter, will get elected. I know Hester may end up as the best kick returner of all time and with changes his TD record may never been challenged, but as kick returns (and to some degree punt returns) begin to decrease in value in the game his case in fact may only get weaker over time.

35. Paul on March 27, 2014 at 4:17 pm

    So with Ware, Peppers and now Allen all on new teams with big contracts will be interesting to see how they contribute to their team’s success, sacks they get, and “padding” their HOF resumes over the next few years starting from the 2014 season as a benchmark looking ahead 2-3 years. Who will end up as the best “value” and add to their resume?

36. boknows34 on March 28, 2014 at 6:53 am

    At what point does Calvin Johnson become a lock?

37. Paul on March 28, 2014 at 9:15 am

    I am really reluctant to call any player a lock with less then 10 years in the league so even for Johnson I still think he needs another 3 quality years

38. Steve on March 28, 2014 at 11:49 am

    I agree with Tony’s picks. Lynch, to me, is very a borderline candidate. I think there’s a number of safeties (some of whom, like Johnny Robinson and Eddie Meador, are now in the Seniors pool) with cases as good or better than his. Just looking at roughly the same era, I think Dawkins is a bit more deserving.

    Agree on Haley having the edge over Greene, but I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes the other way.

    Of the first-time eligibles (leaving out Seau, who I agree is a lock), I think Pace and Warner will be the only other finalists. Pace was damn good, but his injury issues mean that he probably won’t be viewed as quite the ‘no brainer/first-ballot lock’ that Ogden and Jones were. If Shields was waiting, Pace might still get in on his first try, but with that other factor I think he waits until 2016. Very unique career for Warner. Ultimately, I think the pros outweigh the cons, but he’s not really first-ballot material unless the voters are just dying to vote in a qb (none have gone in since Aikman and Moon in 2006). Most likely, Favre in 2016 will be the next qb enshrined and Warner goes in in 2017. It’s possible that could also be the year for Holt, but I think it depends on if things have been settled with both Harrison and Brown by then. You’d have to think Harrison is a lock for next year, unless something happens with that unresolved shooting in Philly. Presuming Brown then goes in in 2016, that would leave Holt as next in line. James and Mawae will both very likely make it in, but I think they’re both looking at at least 5 year waits. Bruce could be in for an even longer wait. Very curious to see what happens with him. It’s probably 50/50 whether Law gets in at all, but safe bet he won’t get in before Bailey, Woodson and probably Barber do.

39. Paul on March 28, 2014 at 3:20 pm

    With TO arriving on the ballot in 2016, Hines Ward in 2017, then Randy Moss in 2018, the ballot is going to again get filled with candidate WRs for the HOF, meaning a potential long wait for Holt, and even longer for Bruce. I am not saying TO, Ward or Moss will get in 1st year or even soon after, just that there will be plenty of WRs on the ballot for many years forward and lots of sorting out for the voters to do and a strong chance of another logjam keeping them from getting elected with split voters among the WRs.

40. Paul on April 11, 2014 at 12:43 pm

    Looks like the age 30 barrier for potential HOF RBs is about to claim another victim in Chris Johnson, have to wonder whether Peterson could be at the brink in another year or so?

41. Paul on May 5, 2014 at 3:01 pm

    So CJ ends up with the Jets, interesting to see what if anything he has in the tank? At 29 and still 8,000 yards away from the record next two years should give some indication of whether AP still has some left in those legs as he reached the 30 year old barrier for RBs, not so sure he has 6-7 years of 1200+ yard seasons left in him.

    On another note while watching the recent Caught in the Draft-1984 on NFL Network, interesting that no player from that draft has yet to be selected to HOF (R White, G Zimmerman and S Young went to the USFL and were later picked in the NFL 1984 Supplemental Draft), and no strong candidates for future HOF consideration from that draft.

    From 1970 to 1997 only three draft classes (including 1984) currently have no HOFers – without looking it up any one care to guess the other two, hint one class will most certainly have HOF in next few years, the other perhaps never.

    Bonus question: who will likely be the first player elected to the HOF from a 2000s draft year?

42. Dr Phil on May 5, 2014 at 9:35 pm

    Don’t the answer to your questions, Paul, without looking them up. However, I’ll guess LaDainian Tomlinson for your 2000s draft question.

43. Paul on May 6, 2014 at 8:50 am

    LT is correct (Brian Urlacher was drafted in 2000, but not eligible until 2016 whereas LT will be first round ballot selection in 2015)

    Will hold off on the other quiz for a few days to see if any else wants to make a guess

44. BSLO on May 6, 2014 at 8:58 am

    Hmm tough quiz, especially given that one of the two will definitely be getting a member soon. 1992? My guess is that the other class is from the 70’s, which lies outside my current knowledge.

45. Paul on May 6, 2014 at 9:03 am

    Also although no one from 1998 and 1999 drafts have yet to be elected to the HOF, 1998 could have as many as five and 1999 two or three.

    I am not sure any draft will repeat 1989 (my fav HOF draft of all time) with four of the first five picks already in the HOF. I know that the 1964 draft had 11 HOFers, 1957 had four HOFers in the top eight, 1974 had four Steeler HOFers, and 1983 had the three HOF QBs, but for me the 1989 draft HOFers is special.

46. bachslunch on May 6, 2014 at 9:09 am

    Unless Darren Woodson somehow gets elected, I doubt we’ll see anyone from the 1992 draft enshrined — not getting my hopes up on that. Charles Haley will likely be the only player from 1986 draft who gets in (Leslie O’Neal and Pat Swilling might have the remotest of chances, but don’t bet the rent on it). And no one is in from 1943, though Al Wistert should have been elected long ago (Lou Rymkus was an unsuccessful Senior candidate, and Bruno Banducci was also drafted that year — not expecting anything to happen for them). Also agreed that the non-supplemental phase of the 1984 won’t likely have anyone enshrined (Irving Fryar and Boomer Esiason are probably the best of the lot).

47. Paul on May 6, 2014 at 9:37 am

    bachslunch has the two correct answers: 1986 and 1992. And yes when I referred to likely future HOF from one of those drafts it was Haley and the 1986 draft.

    And I agree that is it very likely both 1984 and 1992 drafts will not end up with a HOFer.

    So since the vast majority of modern draft classes have had at least one HOFer anyone willing to predict a HOFer from 2014 draft (for the HOF in 2031)??

48. Paul on May 6, 2014 at 9:51 am

    Now try this exercise, predict the “most likely” HOF player from each draft class since 2000 (not the first elected as too hard given uncertain retirement years, and yes some classes will have more than one)
    2000 Urlacher
    2001 LT
    2002 Peppers
    2003 A Johhnson
    2004 L Fitzgerald
    2005 Demarcus Ware
    2006 Vernon Davis?
    2007 Calvin Johnson
    2008 Ryan Clady?
    2009 Alex Mack
    2010 Jimmy Graham
    2011 J J Watt
    2012 Andrew Luck
    2013 Kyle Long

49. bachslunch on May 6, 2014 at 2:37 pm

    2000 is also the year Tom Brady was drafted and he’s an utter lock, arguably over Urlacher. Shane Lechler and John Abraham might make it in as well.

    LaDanian Tomlinson is the class of 2001’s draft, though Reggie Wayne, Drew Brees, Richard Seymour, and Steve Hutchinson make this a deep year.

    2002, no question Ed Reed rivals Julius Peppers for best of that year. Dwight Freeney may well make it also.

    2003 has a lot of possibilities besides Andre Johnson, including Jason Witten, Kevin Williams, Troy Polamalu, Anquan Boldin, Terrell Suggs, and Lance Briggs. Johnson might be the best bet, but he’s got a lot of company.

    Larry Fitzgerald is probably the best from 2004, though Jared Allen looks like a lock and Ben Roethlisberger, Eli Manning, and Steven Jackson might make it in depending.

    2005’s best looks like DeMarcus Ware. Logan Mankins, Frank Gore, and Aaron Rogers are still building cases.

    For 2006 — am thinking OG Jahri Evans, who so far has a postseason profile of 4 first team all-pro selections and 5 pro bowls in eight seasons, has the inside track. Vernon Davis, Haloti Ngata, Mario Williams, Nick Mangold, and Elvis Dumerville all have resumes to build up. And then there’s wild card Devin Hester.

    2007 has a lot of top players, Calvin Johnson being only one of them. There’s also Patrick Willis, Joe Thomas, Adrian Peterson, Darrelle Revis, and Joe Staley, the first three pretty much there already.

    2008 — would say Jake Long and Ryan Clady are vying for top spot thus far.

    2009 — could be Alex Mack, Jairus Byrd, or Clay Matthews III, but it’s still early.

    2010 — really early to say. Jimmy Graham, Ndamukong Suh, Earl Thomas, Maurkice Pouncey, NaVorro Bowman, Rob Gronkowski, Geno Atkins all have a start of some note.

    2011 — J.J. Watt looks especially strong thus far. Richard Sherman, Cam Newton, Patrick Peterson, Julio Jones, Cameron Jordan might come into play.

    2012 — agreed on Andrew Luck. There’s also Luke Kuechly, Russell Wilson, and RGIII off to capable starts.

    2013 — Kyle Long’s as good as anybody. Maybe Eddie Lacy and Eric Reed.

50. Paul on May 6, 2014 at 3:29 pm

    And for a historical perspective since 1970 the largest draft classes with HOFers are 1974 (5), 1976 (5) and 1983 (7).

    I agree it is pretty hard to forecast any players from 2006 to 2013 as even a profile as good as Jahri Evans from 2006 (4/5) is no sure thing when it comes to HOF selection. Plenty of sorting out at the WR and pass rushing DE/LB positions from those years. Cases of Roethlisberger and E Manning are interesting as both have 2 SBs, but what if their careers have peaked with no other SBs or big career numbers? Not so sure Boldin, Steven Jackson, Frank Gore are going to get in without stronger finishes to their careers, bid numbers, post seasons, and awards. And for all the OL, real tough going unless they pile up the all pros beyond 5 and pro bowls over 8.

51. chris on May 9, 2014 at 11:39 am

    which senior nominees should be nominated for 2015? my picks should be johnny robinson and chuck howley. what does everyone else think should be nominated for the senior players for 2015?

52. Paul on May 9, 2014 at 1:23 pm

    Although I would also select same as Chris, I am thinking as usual the Seniors Committee will go in another direction as purely guessing: Mike Curtis and Mick Tingelhoff (both finalists in last three years)

    But given recent history of senior candidates, it really is a crapshoot as to who will be selected, can only guess it will likely be from this “pool”

    RG – Jerry Kramer 5/3/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
    G – Bob Kuechenberg 2/6/70s-80s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
    C – Mick Tingelhoff 5/6/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
    OT Al Wistert 1/8/40s (finalist 2014)
    WR – Cliff Branch 4/4 – 70s-80s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
    OE LaVern Dilweg 20s (finalist 2014)
    RDT – Roger Brown 2/6/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013)
    LDE – L.C.Greenwood 2/6/70’s (finalist 2013)
    RLB – Maxie Baughan 2/9/60’s (finalist 2012, 2014)
    MLB – Tommy Nobis 1/5/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2014)
    LLB – Chuck Howley 5/6/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
    LB- Mike Curtis 2/4/60s-70s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
    CB/S – Eddie Meador 2/6/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
    S – Johnny Robinson 6/7/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
    FS – Cliff Harris 3/6/70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)

53. Rasputin on May 9, 2014 at 2:19 pm

    Chuck Howley is my overwhelming pick. That’s such a glaring omission that at this point I’m not even overly concerned with who the other guy is.

54. CJ on May 28, 2014 at 8:35 am

    K Andersen
    RB Bettis, Davis
    WR Brown, Harrison
    QB Warner
    OL Pace, Shields
    DL/LB Haley, Greene, Seau
    DB Atwater, Lynch
    Coach Dungy
    Owner DeBartolo

    From that list, here’s who Tony and I think will make the final five:

    Andy Tony
    Will Shields Junior Seau
    Marvin Harrison Marvin Harrison
    Junior Seau Will Shields
    Charles Haley Charles Haley
    John Lynch Jerome Bettis

55. CJ on May 28, 2014 at 8:46 am

    My previous post was sent prematurely. Not sure why. I think Andy and Tony have good lists but my list is a hybrid of the two.

    I would go with:

    Will Shields
    Marvin Harrison
    Jerome Bettis
    Kevin Greene
    John Lynch

    Lynch in particular hopefully will break the log jam at that position for a few other guys. I think Dungy, Brown, Warner, Seau and Favre get in 2016. Favre is obviously a first ballot hall of famer. Haley will likely get the nod in 2017, which I think is very deserving. I am not sure Davis gets in at any point. Big uphill battle for him with such a short career. Atwater will get in 2017 at the earliest, which he is deserving of. Anderson may likely be a part of that class as well. James and Pace will get serious consideration in 2017 and 2018 as well.

    My two cents.

56. Paul on May 28, 2014 at 2:00 pm

    Seau will be a first time selection in 2015 – a lock, no question. I am not so sure HOF voters have yet made progress on considering the safety position, so I think 2015 is still premature for Lynch or any other safety. And I continue to maintain that Haley has the advantage over Greene (Haley was in final 10 in both 2013 and 2014 elections, Greene just advanced that far in 2014), plus there has been much more post 2014 HOF selection discussion around snub of Haley then Greene. So my list would look like this:

    Bettis
    Haley
    Harrison
    Seau
    Shields

57. Corey on May 30, 2014 at 11:53 am

    I hope Robinson and Wistert are next year’s senior candidates.

    For the modern era, I would go with Seau, Haley, Brown, Bettis and Shields.

58. boknows34 on June 3, 2014 at 5:01 am

    Agree with Paul.

    Bettis
    Haley
    Harrison
    Seau
    Shields

59. Paul on June 3, 2014 at 1:07 pm

    Harrison made the final 10 in 2014 and Brown did not, which is why I view Harrison as the next WR to be elected and 2015 seems to be likely. Overall I feel pretty confident about Seau, Shields and Harrison, still chance that Greene replaces Haley (but I doubt) or even replaces Bettis. The only player I see perhaps making a move from previous ballots or as a first time finalists would be Warner, but I still think enough HOF voters will question the middle of career to delay election for at least one more year.

60. Corey on June 3, 2014 at 2:14 pm

    Then that leaves Warner and Favre for the Class of 2016. Do you think both of them get in? I’s not unusual for two Quarterbacks in the same class like 2005 or 2006, but I’m not sure if Warner gets in the next two years, deserving as I think he is. I think Harrison would’ve gotten in if not for his off the field controversy. I can see some voters holding that against him still and with Brown having more tenure, I think he could get in then with Reed and Carter now gone.

61. Paul on June 9, 2014 at 9:13 am

    As I have posted previously, Warner makes for one of the most interesting cases for a HOF candidate in many years. For me it is really hard to predict how the HOF voters will view his career and when he will secure 80% of the vote to be elected. I do believe he will make the HOF but remain really uncertain as to how long it may take. I do not see 2016-2018 as having many very strong HOF finalists with only a few possible first time elections, so there certainly is “room” for Warner to get elected soon.

    If it took Carter and Reed to get so long to elected in my view Harrison is among the many current and soon to be candidates as WRs with 900+ receptions who are starting to crowd the ballot, so I was not surprised to see him not elected in his 1st year regardless of how the off the field issues may have impacted (I doubt it played much if at all). Harrison is well positioned to get elected soon (he made final 10 in his 1st year on the ballot), but I am afraid that Brown may be facing a long wait with Bruce, Holt, Owens, Ward and Moss to join the ballot in the next few years.

62. Corey on June 9, 2014 at 12:37 pm

    It’s possible Warner gets in next year because the voters are going to look at the two MVP awards, the Super Bowl MVP and the two other appearances he had. Not to mention the two teams he took to the Super Bowl, pretty much both of them he resurrected from the basement more or less. Then again, they may rather wait until Favre is elected before they elect Warner. Not that I agree with that, but I think I read a possible hypothesis the voters didn’t elect Carter in 2009 because they didn’t want him getting in before Rice, which I totally do not agree with.

    It’s so tough to look at who may be elected and when. Monk got in before Carter and also had a longer time on the ballot. Carter got in before Reed despite spending a fewer amount of years on there. Reed gets in before Brown and Harrison even though Reed was on the ballot for more years.

    Yet Brown had two more Pro Bowls in his career than Reed and unlike Reed, Brown made an All Decade Team.

    Unlike Brown and Reed, Harrison was a First Team All Pro in his career. Harrison has a profile of 3/8. Brown is 0/9. Reed was 0/7. Harrison also made an All Decade selection and was on a Super Bowl winner, which makes me think the off the field issues did come into play.

    Then I think people should consider the other five receivers you mentioned. Randy Moss and Terrell Owens are easily Hall of Famers in my eyes, but could character issues delay their elections, especially Owens? If it took Monk, Carter and Reed so long to get in, just think how long it may take for Bruce and Holt. Hines Ward has the two Super Bowls and is worthy of enshrinement, but other receivers have better numbers and better profiles than he does.

    Regardless of what happens, from my stand point, I think the Hall of Fame voting is not logic based. I understand deserving players are left out because only five can get in at a time and I understand pretty much everyone who is elected is rightfully done so, but I can’t ay every one of them, why player A over player B, makes sense.

63. Paul on June 9, 2014 at 3:08 pm

    In a lot of cases the differences (or pro/con debates) between player A over Player B are often much closer since even with some positions having season/career numbers to go on (yards, TDs, receptions, sacks, pro bowls/all pro teams etc..) some of these decisions with only five slots available each year comes down to subjective criteria all too often. Which is why I think Brown has lost out over first Carter, then Reed and now Harrison. As as 2/8 profile player and member of the team of the 1990s, it still took six years for Carter to get elected, and I see Harrison as a close comparison to Carter, even with Harrison also having a SB win.

    In the case of Reed his important role in getting the Bills to 4 SBs carried enough weight with the voters to keep him advancing further each year then Brown. Although I do not think it will take Harrison as long to get in the HOF (I am most certain he will get elected in 2015) it is not surprising, in fact more understandable then one may believe, that he was not elected in his 1st year as that has been all too common for many WR, a trend I see continuing as so many WRs with 900+ career receptions appear on the ballot and voters continue to struggle on how to evaluate WR in this passing game era.

    Right or wrong, the HOF voters also tend to hold a high standard for 1st time elections of players to the HOF which is why I can see a wait of a few years for both TO and Moss as both did have some flat unproductive years during their careers.

    If you look at the HOF voting patterns over the years you see how HOF voters tend to advance players along as if in some order and often decide to elect a player who has been on the ballot and discussed more frequently year after year over others new to the ballot unless that new player is among the all time best at their position. It is this type of voting process, like it or not, that eventually helps players like Carter and Reed but also keeps blocking a player like Brown.

    I am not so sure the prospects for Bruce and Holt look very good, even after TO and MOss are eventually elected (and perhaps even Ward) as several more years other WRs from the 2000s era will start to be added to the ballot. There is also a very good chance that Bruce and Holt will end up splitting HOF votes, costing them both a chance at election.

    And when you have 45 voters and need 80% to get elected, logic does not always come into play because as much as one may think numbers are the only basis for election, subjective bias and opinions also play a very important role.

64. Rasputin on June 9, 2014 at 5:41 pm

    I think Hines Ward is a bridge too far for this era. He only had four Pro Bowls and one season over 1200 yards. He only had six 1000 yard seasons, most just barely. Neither of his team’s two SB winning seasons were among his Pro Bowl years. They were a defensive heavy team, ranking only 15th in offense in 2005 and 22nd in 2008. With the aforementioned WR logjam he seems like an easy cut.

65. Corey on June 9, 2014 at 6:38 pm

    I honestly think Ward is football’s version of Jorge Posada. Good numbers, has the championships and the impact for a big franchise. I just think they fall short, specifically Ward. I could see why he may get elected, though he’s not the strongest candidate. However, he wouldn’t be as poor of a selection as Lynn Swann was.

    It’s just so hard between Holt and Bruce. Holt has a better profile, Bruce has better numbers. Either one of them could possibly sneak in but on a weaker year or as a senior candidate and I honestly see the former happening before the latter. Then again, I still think to this day Curley Culp and Dave Robinson weren’t impressive candidates. I’ve said for a while now how Johnny Robinson is my top choice for the Hall of Fame and if not him, then Ed Budde would’ve been another more worthy Chief. For the Packers, I think it starts with Jerry Kramer with the only other worthy Packer senior nominee off the top of my head being Bobby Dillon.

    Even if Moss and Owens did have unproductive years, are those years enough to keep them off of the first ballot? Are the years Moss wasn’t on his game enough to negate the five times he led the league in touchdowns, including the most receiving touchdowns in a season by a rookie and most receiving scores in a season, period? With Owens, are his antics and decline enough to deny him a first ballot despite being a model of consistency for nearly a whole decade? Do the voters play the never-won-a-championship card? Moss was 4/6/2000s, Owens 5/6/2000s. Even if they wouldn’t be the best examples of exemplifying character, if someone is a Hall of Famer, they’re a Hall of Famer. I would never not vote for someone just because it’s their first time on the ballot. If I didn’t vote for someone on the first ballot, it would be because I either didn’t see them as a Hall of Famer, or I saw others as more deserving.

    I wonder what you mean by subjective bias and opinions. I think with someone who is from the press, they shouldn’t have biases. It may be too much to ask for, because how do you prove a bias, exactly? Still, if anyone is caught with evidence of a bias, they simply should not be permitted to be a part of the committee. For example, Brian Urlacher and Ray Lewis are both eligible for the Hall of Fame Class of 2018. I know that growing up as a Bears fan, I’d love to see Urlacher get in and he was a childhood hero of mine. Still, if only one gets in, I’m voting for Ray Lewis if I had a vote. It’s not that I like Lewis over Urlacher, it’s just that I think he simply had a better career. I think both are worthy of a spot in Canton. Whereas Urlacher probably is going to be just a Hall of Famer, people are likely going to rank Lewis historically up there with the likes of Taylor and Butkus and would not be surprised if he made the NFL’s 100th Anniversary Team. As someone who just graduated college and is pursuing a career in sports journalism, I think biases should be tossed aside, as unrealistic as they may be.

    If you think a player from the team you cover/root for is undeserving, don’t vote for them even if you like them. Jimbo Covert was part of that 1985 Bears offensive line, but not a Hall of Famer in my eyes. Mick Tingelhoff played his entire career for one of the Bears’ division rivals, but he’s right up there in terms of senior candidates and would be an A/A- selection if the committee chose him. As mentioned, Kramer belongs and is in my Top 5 of eligible seniors. Dillon is up there, too, of defensive backs I’d like to see get in.

    If someone votes for or against someone because of bias, they honestly shouldn’t be voting. Sadly though, I see it merely as wishful thinking.

66. Paul on June 9, 2014 at 10:08 pm

    I do think personal opinions, bias and subjective views in evaluating and “ranking” the 15 finalists each year does come into play because in most cases there are not consistent numbers or values to compare candidates especially those from different eras and positions. A simple example of a bias could be a voter preferring offensive players over defensive or so called “skill players” over lineman. Impossible to ignore that should bias and subjective views come into play in HOF voting, right or wrong it is simply human nature that they would have a role. With so many HOF eligible players and only five modern slots each year it is simply not that easy to just say “if they are a HOFer, then they are a HOFer” as with many finalist lists in any given election year almost all of the final 15 can be considered a “HOFer” but we already know that only a maximum of five are getting in that year. With players no just evaluated on numbers I can see a case being made by over 20% of the voters to not elect Moss or TO in the first year on the ballot due to weaknesses in their overall careers, and they would not be the first all decade team players or 4-5/6 players not to get elected as 1st year selections (that has even happened in recent HOF elections).

67. Corey on June 9, 2014 at 11:12 pm

    What sort of weaknesses are we talking about here for Moss and Owens? Certainly those weaknesses couldn’t be that major to overshadow everything they did in their careers. If anything, I see them being denied for character issues.

    Me personally, if I were a voter, I would try my best not to prefer a position over another when it comes to voting and simply vote for who I think has the strongest credentials.

    This is tough, but if I were to decide the Hall of Fame Class of 2015 myself, I’d choose Seau, Warner, Harrison, DeBartolo and Andersen. That is a very tough list, especially knowing I’m definitely a supporter of Will Shields, Orlando Pace, Jerome Bettis, Tim Brown and John Lynch.

    Seau’s profiles just cannot possibly be denied. Warner’s profiles may not be eye popping, but the two MVP seasons and what he did for both the Rams and Cardinals along the way, yes, he had breaks in his career, but I can’t just brush his resume aside.

    Off the field is not as important to me as it may be to others. Not saying I condone the likes of Jim Tyrer, Marvin Harrison or Eddie DeBartolo, but for them to not get inducted because of the unfortunate deeds they are linked to would be a disservice to their legendary careers and the game itself. Harrison made up of one half of one of the greatest QB-WR combinations in the history of the game and he managed to lead the league twice in receptions and yards despite heavy competition at that position in his day.

    An owner who presided over a dynasty did something right, and it’s time DeBartolo earn his bust.

    To keep out a member of two All Decade squads and the NFL’s all time leading scorer would be too much for me. I can think of a few other special teamers I would put in as well.

    The only two names on that list I’m not really supportive are would be Terrell Davis and Charles Haley. The rest of it is a tough call. It has nothing to do with bias, at least not deliberately. This is coming from someone who thinks offensive linemen can’t be praised enough and wishes Shields would’ve gotten in by now. It’s just so hard, but for me to use bias, at least consciously, would not be fair to anyone.

68. Paul on June 10, 2014 at 10:43 am

    His attitude and performance during his last year in Oakland is one reason some voters will not elect Moss in his first year on the ballot, again it only takes around 10 of the 45 voters to drop him below the required 80% approval. I think the same may play out for Owens given the issues at several points during his career. And in both cases I am not referring to off the field issues but impacts to the team and performance.

    And in comparing players from different era and positions, bias and subjective views and opinions do come into play and often need to as there is simply no way to compare a player like Anderson to Haley or to Sheilds, or even harder to decide between players and contributors like De Bartolo. Those decisions are based more on opinions then facts or any numbers.

    Again I am no so sure off the field issues had much to do with Harrison not getting elected in his first year on the ballot (he did make final 10), but instead the recent and current logjam at WR position with Reed and Brown tends to cause debate among the voters and split votes. No one (including me) is saying Harrison is not a HOFer but with only five modern slots there are always more deserving candidates then slots, and each year a few players get left out only to be elected within the next few years. The one player who has really been impacted by the quality of players and logjams at a position over the last few years that has unfairly left him waiting again and again is Shields, which is a reason I think and feel he should elected in 2015, even if that means Anderson, DeBartolo or even Warner are not.

69. Rasputin on June 10, 2014 at 1:05 pm

    Football is a team sport, and even individual awards can’t be totally divorced from the context of how a player impacted his team. It’s easy to argue that it’s no coincidence that neither Owens or Moss ever won a championship, despite each playing for several contending teams. I’ll add that Owens led the league in drops, one of the things that bothered me most about him as a WR. They both had tremendous athletic ability but incomplete skill sets. Both are such stat monsters that they belong in the Hall of Fame, but I wouldn’t be upset if neither made it first ballot. That’s not a prediction, just a preference.

70. Rasputin on June 10, 2014 at 1:15 pm

    I’d certainly induct both Tim Brown and Marvin Harrison before either of them.

71. Paul on June 10, 2014 at 2:11 pm

    If Harrison gets elected in 2015, which seems very likely to me, he comes off the ballot, leaving Brown as the top and long standing remaining WR candidate (above Holt and Bruce who also are on the ballot starting in 2015). The arrival of TO in 2016, then Moss in 2018 really create a tough path for Brown for the next few elections. For all their questionable attitude and performance issues, both TO (1078 rec, 153 TD 5th all time, 5/6, 2000s) and Moss (982 rec, 156 TD 4th all time) have some pretty strong supporting numbers for election to the HOF within a few years of becoming eligible. Although Brown has some return numbers, he also lacks a SB win, plus the lack of an all pro team selection really hurts him in a direct comparison to either TO or Moss. Again I have no preference if they are 1st ballot selections or not, but they both going to create a barrier for Brown unless he gets in before they both appear on the ballot.

    Personally even with the issues, I view both TO and Moss as more deserving HOFers then Brown and would not be surprised if HOF voters feel the same way. Moss and TO appear regularly on any list of top ten WR of all time, sometimes within the top 5, whereas if Brown even appears on such lists he tends to be around 10th. Most of those top ten lists (and mine) look like some variation of this:
    1. Rice
    2. Hutson
    3. Moss
    4. Largent
    5. Alworth
    6. Berry
    7. Carter
    8. Harrison
    9. TO
    10. Irvin

72. Corey on June 10, 2014 at 3:02 pm

    I’d argue that in the lone Super Bowl he played in, Owens caught 9 passes for 122 yards. You certainly wouldn’t hang that loss on him, would you?

    Nor would I hang the loss of Super Bowls 42 and 47 on Randy Moss. The Patriots had the lead in the former Super Bowl but they couldn’t hold the Giants. Nor is it Moss’ fault that the 49ers gave up so many points to the Ravens in the Super Bowl. I remember David Akers struggling in that game too. Certainly can’t pin that on him either. To punish an individual player for not accomplishing something a team does, feel free to disagree, I just can’t do it. The fact players like Strahan, Sharpe, Irvin, Zimmerman, just to name a few, they all had to wait despite playing for Super Bowl winners. In Sharpe’s and Irvin’s case, they won three each, plus Haley is still waiting.

    It may be reality and a basis for some things, but to judge whether a player belongs or is first ballot or not simply if they won a Super Bowl or not, I simply think that’s silly. Walter Jones made it on his first ballot this year and the only Super Bowl he ever played for, he was on the losing squad.

    A player can only have so much control over his team winning a championship, and even then, he could play well enough for his team to win, but to keep him out of a deserving Hall of Fame spot just because the team he played for didn’t go all the way, I think there’s a better way of looking at things.

73. Rasputin on June 10, 2014 at 3:19 pm

    I don’t know that I typically see Cris Carter ranked that high among all time WRs. I’d rather have Michael Irvin on my team over Moss or Owens any day. I’d induct Brown first because he’s been waiting so long (his team’s lack of a SB win wasn’t his fault, btw; he wasn’t detrimental), and Harrison because I think he was a better all around player than Moss or Owens. I said I’d induct Owens and Moss too though, just not first ballot.

74. Rasputin on June 10, 2014 at 3:21 pm

    Corey, the point posters were making about detrimental team impact can’t be captured by their personal game day stats. If they didn’t have the latter then we wouldn’t even be having this conversation.

75. Rasputin on June 10, 2014 at 3:23 pm

    There are reasons Owens and Moss both ended up being cut or traded by so many teams.

76. Paul on June 10, 2014 at 3:34 pm

    The ranking I posted was mine and represented combination many top ten WR lists, and would agree that the order from #2-10 does vary widely among all those lists and some include other players including CJ, Reed, Lofton, Fitzgerald, Monk, Bruce, Warfield, Taylor and others.

    But if given a choice between Owens and Brown or TO and Brown, it would be hard for me to select Brown over either of them, regardless of character issues and fact that they moved between multiple teams. On any given day at the peak of their respective careers, Owens and TO had overall talent and skills beyond Brown. For individual games or seasons (including post season) Owens and TO has some of the best ever, and certainly above the level of play of Brown. I do feel that Brown deserves to be in the HOF, just that HOF voters are going to find it very hard to ignore the numbers and careers of Owens and TO when they arrive on the ballot including in comparison to Brown if he is still there. In their respective prime of their careers Moss and TO put up seasons among the best ever for WRs – a level Brown can not equal.

    And yes I agree that their character issues and impacts on their teams, will hurt their HOF cases, perhaps even to the point of not being 1st year selections, but they will be headed into the HOF very soon and likely before Brown as their career numbers are very hard to dismiss.

77. Rasputin on June 10, 2014 at 3:56 pm

    Again, to clarify, I’m not arguing that Brown was better than Owens or Moss (though I think Harrison was). I’m saying that Brown should be inducted first because he’s already been waiting a long time. I also don’t think there should be a rush to make Moss or Owens first ballot. Brown retired #2 in career yards and #3 in both career receptions and receiving TDs, is the only man to retire ranked top 5 in both receiving and punt return yards, still ranks 5th in all purpose yards, and actually has more receptions than Moss or Owens (and has three more Pro Bowls than either). There’s plenty of room to induct Brown. Frankly it should have happened years ago, and could happen next year. Not a prediction, just a preference.

78. Paul on June 10, 2014 at 4:36 pm

    I also do not think there should be a “rush” to elect Moss or Owens in their 1st year on the ballot, having already stated that I foresee delays with their selections as at least some voters will decide not to vote for them in the 1st year, but their career numbers also warrant consideration and the possibility of such selection.

    Usually I tend to favor players on the ballot longer, but in the case of Brown, like many other players, sometimes they get passed over again and again as equal or more deserving players get selected. For Brown the lack of all pro teams and playoff success has held him back as others including Reed and Carter pass him by, along with many deserving candidates at other positions over the last five years. Unfortunately he now finds himself up against Harrison, and soon TO and Moss – plus many other deserving players from other positions. With only five slots per year there clearly has not been enough room to induct Brown, in fact he has yet to even make it past the first cut of finalists from 15 to 10, so apparently the HOF voters have not favored him among the candidates. His time will come, but not in 2015 and perhaps for a few more years. Not making the final ten in 2014 puts him behind the five remaining 2014 final ten players plus 1st year players in 2015 including Seau, jumping ahead of those six players in 2015 seems very likely at this stage. Carter waited 6 years for election, Reed waited 8 years, with Brown a finalist already for 5 years I foresee a few more years wait, maybe longer depending on how voters view TO and Owens.

79. Corey on June 10, 2014 at 5:16 pm

    I’m predicting Brown for 2015, going down the precedent of Monk over Carter and Reed over Brown. I’m going to say Harrison in 2016. I know people may disagree, that is their right, but I just think off the field issues are preventing him. Look at 2010, Roberto Alomar’s first year on the ballot for the Baseball Hall of Fame. He came so close to being elected, but he fell short. It’s not that he didn’t have a career worthy of being a first ballot Hall of Famer. I think some voters left him off the ballot as a punishment for the spitting incident. This would leave Owens for 2017 and I think Moss does make it in 2018 on the first ballot. He may not get too much higher than 80%, but I think he gets the 80%.

80. Rasputin on June 10, 2014 at 7:14 pm

    Paul, there has been plenty of room for Brown. In my opinion he was more deserving than Carter and Reed, not to mention some of the non WR inductions in recent years. Sometimes the selectors get it wrong. As for postseason success, Carter never won a SB either (neither did Reed, Owens, or Moss), and Brown won more playoff games (6) than Carter and Owens (4 each).

81. Corey on June 10, 2014 at 7:47 pm

    Carter never got his chance to play in one either. Not his fault though about Gary Anderson’s miss.

    Tony Dungy, should he make it? Or are the credentials not strong enough?

82. BSLO on June 10, 2014 at 8:22 pm

    I say Harrison in 2015, Brown in 2016, Owens in 2017 and Moss in 2018. Holt, Bruce and Ward will have to wait for a weak year, but I think think one of Holt or Bruce will crack the final 25 this year. Based on the analysis I have done on my end, Harrison comes out significantly better than all three. Brown is a clear 2nd, with Holt coming in ahead of Bruce by a reasonable amount.

    Haven’t looked at Ward yet since he isn’t eligible but I am pretty interested in seeing how he stacks up. I’ve been fairly adamant in my opinion that he is the line I would draw at the receiver position. In terms of guys he played with, I would personally put him closer to the “MAYBE some day” tier of Rod Smith and Jimmy Smith, but ahead of the “might get a preliminary nomination and that’s it” tier of Joe Horn/Keenan McCardell/Keyshawn Johnson/Muhsin Muhammad.

    Warner has enough going against him that he won’t be in on the 1st ballot. I think he waits at least two since Favre is eligible in 2016. I would say that he waits longer, but with a lack of great skill position players coming up, I think he’ll sneak in within 4-5 years. His credentials are worthy, but there has to be a standard for QB’s getting in on the 1st ballot. I wouldn’t take his career over any of the inducted players who peaked from the late 80’s on, but his case is definitely better than Ken Anderson or Ken Stabler.

83. Paul on June 11, 2014 at 9:51 am

    I think the issue voters faced with Brown vs Carter vs Reed was that strong comparative cases could be made for each of them, and each had weaknesses to their qualifications. Which is why the logjam persisted for so long as voters were split until voters first collected around Carter then Reed. The fact that Harrison was in the final 10 in 2014 while Brown did not yet again advance that far, leads me to believe Harrison is next inline over Brown in 2015.

    I am not so sure the voters get it wrong as much as they are often faced with 5-10 candidates each and every year deserving of election yet only 5 open slots, and many of those 10-15 candidates are very close in terms of evaluating their careers. I think that over a period of time the voters get it right as the majority of finalists are eventually elected leaving us and the public to debate only the order of election. The history of the HOF elections is full of many deserving players that waited years to get elected, Brown simply falls into that group. As to comparing Brown, Carter and Reed again you can cut the numbers any number of different ways to show how one was “better”then the others, but clearly given the debates and elections no one stands out that distinctive compared to the other two. If you polled a hundred pro football “experts” on Brown, Reed and Carter, I would be willing to guess a similar close to equal split on the results.

84. Paul on June 11, 2014 at 9:53 am

    I think the issue with Dungy is that as a contributor, many voters find it difficult to select a contributor over a player and the current of player finalists is very deep. The history of HOF voting shows many deserving contributors waiting a long time for election. Hence the continued call for a separate election process for contributors.

85. Paul on June 11, 2014 at 9:55 am

    Although I am not suggesting that Ward is a quick shoe in for election to the HOF, his career numbers are comparable to other WRs in consideration, and unlike the other WRs he has two SBs including a SB MVP. Those by no means get him into the HOF but they are impressive qualifications to add to his case. But I have no idea how voters will consider his case and if/when he were to get elected.

86. Paul on June 11, 2014 at 9:58 am

    The bottom line with Warner is that he presents a very interesting case with two outstanding periods in his career leading to 3 SB appearances, one SB win plus SB MVP and two league MVP awards, then a dead period in the middle of his career. But those two periods are impressive and will keep him in the debate for the HOF and as a two time MVP clearly bound for election at some point, I would suspect sooner rather than later.

87. Rasputin on June 11, 2014 at 12:21 pm

    Countless examples of the selectors getting it wrong have been laid out here and elsewhere over the years, but in this case my purpose was mostly just to point out that variations of “the selectors were right to exclude X because they chose to exclude X” amount to a circular argument. I’m less interested in simply reciting what they’ve done than I am in giving my opinionated analysis.

88. Rasputin on June 11, 2014 at 12:41 pm

    I’ll add that it’s unclear what Brown’s alleged “weakness” vis a vis the other two was. None had a SB win. Brown had more yards and Pro Bowls than Carter and Reed. Brown had more receptions and touchdowns than Reed. Earlier you mentioned Brown’s lack of first team All Pro selections, but Reed didn’t have any either and Carter only had two. Brown joined Rice, Irvin, and Carter on the All Decade team. Brown had the biggest single season yardage total of the three candidates, with 1408, and had four seasons over 1300 yards, while Reed only had two, with his highest total being 1312, and Carter only had one, with his highest total being 1371. Carter particularly stands out in TDs, having led the league three years, but Brown retired tied for 3rd all time in receiving TDs, so that metric was hardly a weakness for him. Frankly him being out while Carter and Reed are enshrined in Canton seems like a glaring omission. Better to make Harrison (or some other recently retired player) wait another year to correct that omission than to procrastinate and have it fester. Again, not predicting they will (hence my lack of commentary on how far various candidates made it last year), just arguing that they should.

89. Paul on June 11, 2014 at 12:42 pm

    Lots of people have opinions regarding HOF selections and the results of the votes, does not make those opinions right or wrong, just opinions. For every case when someone can claim the HOF voters got it wrong, especially in selecting a player over other(s), you can find an opposing view on that claim. After every election, some in the media, on blogs and websites cry for the injustices of players not selected and demand reform of the process (often without suggesting how it could be improved), it is just the nature of an imperfect system and the result of subjective decisions by the voters.

    “the selectors were right to exclude X because they chose to exclude X” amount to a circular argument” How is it a circular argument to simply state that 80%$ of the voters decided that Reed was a better selection then Brown?

90. Rasputin on June 11, 2014 at 12:53 pm

    If the argument is over whether the selectors did the right thing, it’s circular to simply repeat what they did (which isn’t in dispute; indeed it’s the premise of this discussion) to try and justify what they did. Of course this is ultimately a subjective issue, but some opinions are better supported by facts and rational points than others, and contain fewer (or no) internal inconsistencies.

91. Paul on June 11, 2014 at 1:58 pm

    Suggesting that it was a mistake to elect Reed and Carter over Brown is an opinion not a fact, I am not referring to the selection (which is a fact) but the view that it was a mistake (opinion). And there are also strong facts to support the selections of Reed and Carter, again it is a subjective opinion to weight those facts in comparison to those facts that would support Brown. Bottom line is that there is no clear agreement or consensus as to which WR is better, any survey of football experts or even fans would provide evidence of how all three are viewed in comparison.

92. Rasputin on June 11, 2014 at 2:10 pm

    Except I supported my opinion with numerous facts. Most people don’t, and are likely ignorant of most pertinent facts. I’ll also note that you have yet to identify the alleged relative “weakness” in Brown’s HoF case that you mentioned earlier. I cited various salient advantages Brown has over the other two. Even if all three are roughly equal, it would be a mistake to induct two but not the third.

93. Rasputin on June 11, 2014 at 2:40 pm

    If we accept the premise that players with a case of certain strength and above should be inducted to the HoF, and the premise that Brown’s case is at least strong as other players whose cases successfully met that threshold, then Brown should be inducted to the HoF. The way to challenge that argument is to attack one or both of those premises, probably the second (since attacking the first would bring the HoF’s entire purpose into question), but so far I haven’t seen anyone really do so.

94. Paul on June 11, 2014 at 2:43 pm

    Brown has no AP all pro team selections, 7 out of 16 years were average or below average production, limited playoff successes; Carter has more rec, more TDs, more quality years, two All Pro teams; Reed was key player on four consecutive AFC championship teams, again all three are close, and no one has said that Brown will not be elected to the HOF, it will just take some time given the other quality players and WRs also on the ballot (Both Reed and Carter ended up waiting longer then Brown has to date). Yes Brown has advantages over the other two WR, but as I just pointed out they also have advantages over him, it all comes down to how you consider and evaluate the relative strengthens and weaknesses of all three compared together – and that is a subjective process.

95. Andy on June 11, 2014 at 2:55 pm

    Love the debate. Thanks for stopping by. I did a look at these three a couple years ago and came to lean slightly toward Brown, but believed all three should get in, largely in any order, but just for sure before the current crop of players become eligible, as their numbers are skewed upward due to changes in the game. My post is here, if you are bored and care to check it out: https://www.zoneblitz.com/2012/01/28/comparing-hall-famers-brown-carter-reed/

96. Rasputin on June 11, 2014 at 3:17 pm

    Brown does have numerous All Pro selections, including an AP second team and several PFW/UPI first team selections, but just no AP first team selection. Neither does Reed; in fact Reed doesn’t have any first team All NFL selections from any outfit, so that’s not a weakness that places Brown below both other candidates.

    It would be bizarre to focus on quantity of “average or below average” seasons rather than quantity of high quality seasons. Brown has more Pro Bowl seasons (9) than Carter (8) and Reed (7), more 1,000 yard seasons (9) than Carter (8) and Reed (4), and a higher peak (as laid out earlier), so I’m not sure what your basis for claiming Carter had a higher number of quality years is. Also, Brown and Carter each had 8 sub 1,000 yard seasons, while Reed had 12.

    Brown had more receptions and TDs than Reed, and more playoff success than Carter, at least winning one conference championship.

    Each of the items you’ve cited only places Brown in the middle of the three (at worst). None show him weaker than both of the other two, while I’ve cited salient metrics in which Brown surpasses the other two. Given that, and Carter and Reed’s induction, it would be a travesty if the selectors keep Brown waiting for a long time (or permanently) to give priority to newly eligible waves of players, as some posts here have suggested is a possibility.

97. Rasputin on June 11, 2014 at 3:25 pm

    My reply was to Paul. I see Andy’s well written post made many of the same points I did, along with commenting on the QB disparities between the WRs.

98. Paul on June 11, 2014 at 4:30 pm

    Apparently Reed’s four AFC championships and subsequent SBs carried weight with the voters as these elections are not always only about the numbers. And I think the comparison between Carter and Brown is much closer then you are perhaps making it. With three close WRs on the ballot, and many other more or just as deserving candidates on the final ballot, players like Brown are always going to wait for election. Moving forward Brown will have to take his place on the ballot and each year fight off other candidates, looking ahead a few years I see room for his election, but not in 2015 and clearly the arrival of other WRs especially Moss and TO are going to impact his selection. Since Brown has yet to even crack the final 10, it is clear that the majority of HOF voters share a view that he is not as worthy as other candidates.

99. Rasputin on June 11, 2014 at 6:43 pm

    Clearly, but their view doesn’t appear to have much rational basis. I’ll note that no relative “weakness” for Brown vis a vis both other players has been identified, though key areas where he’s stronger than both have been. I suppose there’s always the eyeball test, but I haven’t heard many people argue that Brown was deficient compared to Carter and Reed in that. The case for making Brown wait much longer than Carter and Reed or not inducting him at all is flimsy to non existent.

100. Corey on June 11, 2014 at 8:59 pm

     “I think the issue with Dungy is that as a contributor, many voters find it difficult to select a contributor over a player and the current of player finalists is very deep. The history of HOF voting shows many deserving contributors waiting a long time for election. Hence the continued call for a separate election process for contributors.”

     Yet in 2011, the committee gave the nod to Ed Sabol over a player. In 2013, they chose Parcells for his coaching. Is having won just one Super Bowl what is keeping Dungy out? What if he coaches the Colts in Super Bowl 44 and not Caldwell and the Colts win? Does he get elected in 2015 or 2016 then?

     Also, Paul, you can’t always base it off of this year if Harrison made it farther than Brown or not. Reed made it farther than Carter did in previous years, yet Carter was elected first.

     Also, Andre Reed caught 27 passes in the Super Bowl, second all time to only Jerry Rice. I find it noteworthy how some of Reed’s detractors say the Bills never won it all when he was there, but he performed well during that amazing run.

101. Paul on June 12, 2014 at 10:59 am

     And yes contributors can obviously make it over players (as they are often elected), but looking back over the last 10-20 years getting contributors elected over players has not always been easy, and many of the HOF voters have raised this issue and called for separate elections. I do think that winning multiple SBs helps many coaches whereas one SB does not seem to be enough for the likes of Dungy and others. I do think that Dungy will get elected in the future, but like many contributors it will take some time. Ed Sabol for me is a classic, and all too common event, where voters band together to drive his deserving election, which can happen in any given year rising a player or contributor into sudden consideration and election. At least for now I am not seeing or hearing much of that banding together in support for Dungy. And yes if Dungy wins a second SB his chances for quicker election would have increased greatly. Then again Johnson build the team of the 90s and won back to back SBs, yet to date has not even made the final 15. Clearly there are also the social issues and historical significance of Dungy as a African American coach in the mind of HOF voters.

     In the case of Reed and Carter, did they not both make the jump into the final 10 more than once even before 2014, whereas Brown as never made the step into the final 10?

     Harrison made the final 10 in his first year on the ballot, Brown still short of that step, for me just a quick arrival in the final 10 is just setting the stage for his election very soon, likely in 2015. There certainly has been much more public debate and talk about the candidacy of Harrison during and since the 2014 election then for Brown. I am simply not hearing or sensing a groundswell of interest or support from HOF voters for Brown, but did see discussion regarding Harrison missing in 2014. I suppose support for Brown could arise during the 2015 election process (as it certainly will in the coming years as he stays on the ballot unelected), but Harrison is still one step ahead and in my view electable in 2015.

102. Corey on June 12, 2014 at 1:51 pm

     With Johnson not being in the Hall of Fame, I think it’s one of two things, either he didn’t coach long enough in the eyes of some, or perhaps the Anti-Cowboy bias is actually a thing. I don’t know.

103. Robert Ewing on June 12, 2014 at 6:32 pm

     Just a Curious thought will they treat junior seaus case the same as jim tyrer”s

104. Corey on June 12, 2014 at 10:40 pm

     I do not think so. Unlike Tyrer, Seau took his life and his life only.

105. Paul on June 13, 2014 at 11:52 am

     Seau will be a slam dunk 1st ballot HOF selection in 2015 – no question about it.

106. Corey on June 13, 2014 at 10:57 pm

     Should we believe the senior nominees are going to be Tingelhoff and Kuchenberg? After all, they were tied for third last year if I remember, or is someone else going to emerge? I think Tingelhoff’s nomination is only a matter of time. With him being in the discussion last year, I hope Robinson finally makes the jump. Then again, some of the nominees seem to have come out of nowhere in recent years. So we’ll see.

107. Paul on June 14, 2014 at 10:03 am

     I would agree that Tingelhoff and Kuchenberg are strong candidates and I would have no problem with their selections, but you are also correct in noting that in recent years the elections of seniors has become rather unpredictable as the seniors selection committee seems to be favoring pioneers over players with more accolades. With leaves us with a real crapshoot as to which players among 10 or so would be selected. And I wonder whether the number of recent senior candidates from the Chiefs is hurting the case for Robinson as voters could be coming close to closing the chapter on the AFL era KC teams?

108. Rasputin on June 14, 2014 at 12:26 pm

     Just wild brain storming here, but could Kuechenberg have received a temporary boost last year due to his principled refusal to participate in Obama’s photo op, or has he always been ranked above more deserving guys like Chuck Howley? It may seem unlikely, but the senior nominees were announced the next day, so at the very least it’s an interesting timing coincidence. I doubt any selectors would publicly admit to such a thing, but then HoF selectors mostly don’t admit to anything publicly, which is part of the problem with the process.

109. Paul on June 14, 2014 at 1:34 pm

     Kuechenberg was been in the mix for several years receiving consideration as a senior candidate so I doubt his refusal to participate in the photo op with Obama made any difference (and of course you assume that the 5 members of the HOF seniors selection committee were in support of his refusal rather than finding his refusal offensive). I am not saying that the voters, especially when you are dealing with just 5 people are not impacted by their political views, bias and opinions, just that I doubt in the case you are referring to it made any difference.

110. Paul on June 14, 2014 at 1:50 pm

     Kuechenberg was also a finalist in 2012 and 2013 and I do not think you can place much weight on the year to year differences how the final 10 senior candidates are ranked since the 5 voters participating in the final selection changes each year (they are selected from the 9 committee members). So depending on the individual and how the group of voters interact and discuss candidates the voting down from the finalists to those selected could be very different each year. Once the seniors selection committee of 9 voters use mail voting to get to the finalists, it comes down each year to who is in the room on August and can make the best case to move the other four voters to get down to the final two candidates. Also the voting process for seniors is not made public, although inside sources have leaked the sequence of voters and final “ranking” in previous years, but this is not always the case so we have little knowledge of how the entire committee of 9, or the group of 5 voters year to year, respectively consider and rank the final candidates. Hence the inability of anyone outside the process to really predict the outcome in any given year, certainly the case in the last few elections.

111. Paul on June 14, 2014 at 1:54 pm

     That is way I think for 2015 you could take a list like this and pick any two and likely have just as much chance as anyone in getting the selections correct:

     RG – Jerry Kramer 5/3/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     G – Bob Kuechenberg 2/6/70s-80s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     C – Mick Tingelhoff 5/6/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     LT – Jim Tyrer 6/9/60-70’s (finalist 2012, 2014)
     QB – Ken Anderson 3/4/70s-80s (finalist 2012, 2014)
     WR – Cliff Branch 4/4 – 70s-80s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     RDT – Roger Brown 2/6/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     LDE – L.C.Greenwood 2/6/70’s (finalist 2013, 2014)
     DT – Alex Karras 0/4 60s (finalist 2012, 2014)
     RLB – Maxie Baughan 2/9/60’s (finalist 2012, 2014)
     MLB – Tommy Nobis 1/5/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2014)
     LLB – Chuck Howley 5/6/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     LB- Mike Curtis 2/4/60s-70s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     CB/S – Eddie Meador 2/6/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     CB – Lester Hayes 1/5/70s 80s (finalist 2012, 2014)
     S – Johnny Robinson 6/7/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     FS – Cliff Harris 3/6/70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)

112. Rasputin on June 14, 2014 at 1:56 pm

     Not “assuming” anything, except for the purposes of the hypothetical. Out of curiosity, do you know where Kuechenberg was ranked in 2012 and 2013?

113. Corey on June 14, 2014 at 5:48 pm

     “And I wonder whether the number of recent senior candidates from the Chiefs is hurting the case for Robinson as voters could be coming close to closing the chapter on the AFL era KC teams?”

     In that case, could the nominations of Rayfield Wright and Bob Hayes have delayed someone like a Chuck Howley or Cliff Harris? There’s speculation I read that it could be political since Dave Robinson was involved with the Hall of Fame, but obviously the senior still nominated him with so many 1960s Packers already enshrined.

     There’s no rhyme to reason why Howley hasn’t been inducted yet. He’s up there pretty highly if I were to rank the senior candidates and he just may be the top linebacker not yet enshrined among seniors. It’s so tough ranking them. I’ve said before my big four. I do think there’s a place for Joe Fortunato in Canton, but I just don’t think Mike Curtis stacks up well against the others and Tommy Nobis and Lee Roy Jordan also fall a little short in my eyes compared to Howley, Baughan, Gradishar and Brazile.

     However, more deserving players have been shunned. It’s high time for Ray Guy. Claude Humphrey I think is deserving of the honor, but he didn’t crack my top 5 and I don’t think he was in my top 10 either. I see the argument for Kuechenberg, but for me, it’s Johnny Robinson, Al Wistert and then everybody else in that order.

     What really interests me is the case of Jim Tyrer. I exchanged emails with a senior member and he said that Tyrer has been discussed. I think if his family can forgive him for what he did, then so can the voters. I most certainly don’t condone or excuse it, but he had a Hall of Fame career and who am I to judge him if his family forgave him?

     It’s so hard to rank, but if I were to rank the senior candidates in order, at least my top 5, I think it would go like this.

     #1 Johnny Robinson
     #2 Al Wistert
     #3 Jerry Kramer
     #4 Chuck Howley
     #5 Mick Tingelhoff

     It’s definitely going to be interesting to see who gets nominated. I don’t think the choices, however, could be as poor as Culp and Robinson were, but hopefully we get two A+ selections like Hanburger and Richter were.

114. Paul on June 15, 2014 at 10:12 am

     I have no idea where Kuechenberg ranked in 2012 and 2013 but as I mentioned since the 5 committee members who made the final selection change each year I would not place any value in year to year comparisons of the selection process: different people, different results.

115. Paul on June 15, 2014 at 10:20 am

     It is very possible that Howley is also being impacted by the more recent elections of Hayes and Wright via the seniors route, but I do agree is among the top candidates and like the list of top #5 you posted. And again with only 5 committee members making the selection of senior candidates, and those 5 changing each year, bias and politics certainly could come into play under those circumstances as it only take one person to influence two more members to get a player selected as a senior candidate.

     But if we think “outside the box: for a moment and consider that the seniors committee has recently selected players seen as innovators and not those with simply the best numbers (pro bowls, all pro, stats) are we missing possible candidates?

116. Paul on June 15, 2014 at 10:21 am

     ….but I do agree that Howley is among the top candidates…

117. Rasputin on June 15, 2014 at 1:20 pm

     Just to make sure my earlier comments are clear, I tagged the political speculation as “wild brain storming” that “seem(s) unlikely” from the beginning. I just stumbled across the timing coincidence and thought it was interesting enough to note. While I don’t remember which individuals were on the committee then, of course reporters, including sports reporters, overwhelmingly have a liberal bias, so the political angle is more likely to hurt than help Kuechenberg. I’d bet to the extent bias was involved at all it was football oriented. The simple fact that the 72 Dolphins were receiving extra coverage at the time may have given him a boost.

     As for other Cowboys hurting Howley, don’t forget what an unacceptably long induction dry spell Dallas had, with only five players enshrined well into this century. The recent seeming glut is misleading, since it’s the combined result of partially making up for the past drought (with Hayes and Wright) and the wave of shoo in, first ballot types from the 90s becoming eligible. It will take more than two Landry era players to get caught back up with where Canton should have been years ago though.

     Other teams (Steelers, Packers, Vikings, etc.) don’t seem hurt by recent inductions They just keep coming. So that’s not a valid excuse anyway. The anti-Cowboys bias Corey mentioned is very real. It’s why Dallas guys like Howley, Jimmy Johnson, and Darren Woodson don’t get any real consideration at all outside of maybe the senior route (for the players), and why Mel Renfro, a 10 time Pro Bowler with 2 Super Bowls and one of the greatest shut down defensive backs of all time (and the best KO returner in franchise history to boot) barely squeaks by in his last year of eligibility. It’s also why Drew Pearson and Cliff Harris are the only first team non special teams members of the 70s All Decade team to not be in the HoF.

     Unless they’re obvious first ballot types Cowboys don’t make the HoF without huge, sustained uproars over their omissions, and usually not even then. All but one of the Cowboys HoFers were first ballot coming into this century, and most (8 of 12) still are. That’s rare. For example, only 3 of the Browns’ 15 significant contributing HoF players were first ballot, 6 of the Packers’ 20, 9 of the Steelers’ 17, and 0 of the Vikings’ 10. It would be a mistake to see that as evidence that Cowboys are getting inducted in a timely fashion. What it actually shows is that Dallas isn’t getting in the somewhat less obvious shoo ins that other teams do. Guys like Randy White, Emmitt Smith, and Roger Staubach are obvious first ballot choices whose inductions can’t be prevented even by a biased clique among selectors. But the Cowboys aren’t getting their equivalent of the Gene Hickersons, John Stallworth’s, Paul Hornungs, Dave Robinsons, Fred Deans, etc. in.

     As for innovation or being the first at something, I think Chuck Howley was the first true weakside LB, as it seems Tom Landry invented the concept in the mid 1960s. That’s a coaching innovation, but Howley made it work. He was also the first defensive player to make enough of an impact in the SB to win MVP. Regardless, it’s a travesty that he’s never gotten serious consideration. Hopefully the anti-Cowboys bias fades enough for that to change soon.

118. Paul on June 15, 2014 at 2:49 pm

     I think the anti-Cowboys bias was faded considerably in recent years when the number of HOF voters were increased plus turn over with many of the old guard replaced by new and younger voters. I have no doubt that such a bias existed through the 1980s and 1990s with Renfro as the most obvious example of the bias at play, along with Hayes and especially his terrible initial lack of election when he made it all the way to the final list. Unfortunately Howley was captured by the same problem and then he fell into the very deep seniors pool, but I take encouraging that in recent years his name is always among the top senior candidates and remain hopeful that some year soon he will be selected.

119. Corey on June 15, 2014 at 3:08 pm

     Would either of you still think an anti-Cowboy bias exists if neither of you were Cowboys fans? Like, objectively speaking, would you think there is one, still? I’m a Bears fan and I don’t think there’s an anti-Bears bias, in fact, even though he’s a great man having met him on numerous occasions, I think Dan Hampton’s profiles fall a little short. I’d like to see Joe Fortunato get elected, but I wouldn’t say he is top of the line, either. I do think Fortunato is deserving given a 3/5 profile and 1950s All Decade selection.

     It may take a few years on the ballot, but I see Brian Urlacher getting elected someday. I think Devin Hester is worthy of enshrinement as well, but I would think of that more as anti-special teams bias than anti-Bears bias if he doesn’t get elected, like with Morten Andersen having to keep waiting even though he deserves his bust.

     Granted, I think Pearson, Howley and Harris are all deserving. I think a case could be made for John Niland, but I think that he’s also a rare case too of a lineman who doesn’t play long. Rasputin mentioned Gene Hickerson, but Niland was 2/6 while Hickerson was 3/6 and an All Decade selection. I think Dwight Stephenson being elected was a rarity for having only played seven seasons. Otherwise Dick Stanfel would’ve gotten his rightful election two years ago. Then again, Kuechenberg and Niland are similar profile wise and Kuechenberg gets more attention, but it can’t always be political bias either. I sure recall Kuechenberg being a finalist every year from 2002-2009. I think the better question would be if Kuechenberg would be elected and/or talked about if Jim Langer and Larry Little weren’t on that offense live with him?

     The same thing could be asked about Jerry Kramer. Does he get inducted by now if he didn’t play on the same line as Forrest Gregg and Jim Ringo? It’s something to think about. We could also ask the same thing about Andy Russell is he has a bust in Canton if not for Lambert or Ham. I, for one, would put Russell in. Jack Ham made his first Pro Bowl in 1973, the year Russell made his fifth. Lambert made his Pro Bowl in 1975, the year Russell made his seventh and final Pro Bowl and honestly would rather see Russell get inducted than Greenwood or Shell. He clearly was a very good linebacker before the other two Hall of Fame linebackers entered the picture.

     Before Humphrey’s election and if you consider Deion primarily as one, I thought there was an anti-Falcon bias, as Tommy Nobis, George Kunz and Jeff Van Note all have Hall of Fame cases themselves.

120. Corey on June 15, 2014 at 3:10 pm

     I think Kuechenberg has a nic

121. Corey on June 15, 2014 at 3:12 pm

     I think he has a nice profile but not a great one. 1/6 is not bad, but considering others have stronger profiles, I think he needs to wait in a long line first.

122. Rasputin on June 15, 2014 at 3:50 pm

     Yes, Corey, while I obviously care and speak out a lot more about it because I’m a fan, I would still acknowledge there has been an anti-Cowboys bias if I wasn’t a fan for the many objective reasons I’ve laid out, as various non Cowboys fans have. And if I was a Bears fan I’d still think the HoF had been pretty good to my team, with 25 players inducted, including 6 who primarily played in the Super Bowl era, despite only having won one Super Bowl and only having 3 pre-2000 SB era playoff seasons outside of the Ditka era’s mid 80s- early 90s streak.

123. Rasputin on June 15, 2014 at 4:20 pm

     I’ll add that, counting aside, the Dallas Cowboys are more widely scorned than other teams. They also have the most fans, but sports writers from other cities don’t tend to be among the fans. Even the current Dallas “representative” on the HoF selection committee is a Michigan transplant and Detroit Lions fan who doesn’t appear to be carrying Cowboys candidates’ water in private and has even publicly talked some of them down (like Jason Witten). Paul may be right about the bias softening recently. I guess we’ll see if it’s enough for guys like the three you mentioned to get in soon.

124. Corey on June 15, 2014 at 4:51 pm

     The more I think about it, the more opposed I would be to a Kuechenberg nomination. Of all senior eligible candidates, I would rank him 32nd. Other candidates have either more Pro Bowls, more All Pros or unlike Kuechenberg made an All Decade team. It would be one thing if he was elected during his modern era tenure, but I think the senior pool is too deep for him now.

125. Corey on June 15, 2014 at 5:11 pm

     Perhaps supposed anti-Cowboy bias is behind Charles Haley having to wait. The Bears did have their fair share of electees of the older teams, but it’s not like a terrible number of them have been elected in recent years, but certainly Fortunato, Urlacher and Hester are all worthy. So is Kreutz and maybe even Briggs too.

126. Rasputin on June 15, 2014 at 5:48 pm

     I don’t know that the very real anti-Cowboys bias is behind Haley’s wait, especially since he was primarily a 49er, but I wouldn’t be shocked if it’s had at least some impact. Its impact is more clear cut in some of the other examples.

127. Corey on June 15, 2014 at 5:53 pm

     He still was a big part of some of those Super Bowls. Honestly, I am not a big Haley proponent, but what is it about the Cowboys there is a supposed bias? Lee Roy Jordan is another former one with an argument.

128. Corey on June 15, 2014 at 6:07 pm

     I am also inclined to believe of a possible anti-AFL bias. Robinson, Sweeney and Grayson all seem like obvious Hall of Famers to me.

129. Paul on June 16, 2014 at 8:08 am

     Some of the HOF voters (most notably Dr Z from SI) at the time of Hayes rejection at the final step as a finalist, openly discussed the real possibility of a ant-Cowboys bias that existed throughout the 1980s/90s (Dr Z would resign from the seniors committee due to the insulting snub by the full committee to Hayes and the seniors committee who selected him). Hard to explain why Mel Renfro suddenly appeared on the finalist list only in his first year as eligible modern candidate, only to get elected then – how hard would it have been for voters to miss a 5/10 player (4 SB appearances with 2 wins) for all those years of eligibility???

130. Paul on June 16, 2014 at 8:15 am

     I think Haley’s case to date has been the lack of career sacks and all pro/pro bowl numbers compared to other players on the ballot, especially the pass rushing DE/LBs. Plus for some voters his 5 SB wins are more a reflection of team success than his. But we have seen in the past how players with these types of profiles (lower career numbers, plus playoff successes) tend to take a few years to get elected. But the amount of positive comments on Haley and increased commentary regarding his lack of recent election, including from voters, leaves me to feel that he will get elected very soon, most likely in 2015. So I do not believe any anti-Cowboys bias is currently at paly with Haley – perhaps the fact that he was a noted #$%# to many writers is also not helping his case.

     And yes for a long time an anti-AFL bias existed by many HOF voters who viewed the AFL as a secondary quality league, and perhaps to some degree still today, but recent elections would seem to indicate that it is also weakening.

131. Paul on June 16, 2014 at 8:18 am

     And I do think that the number of players already elected to the HOF from the 1960s Chiefs, 1970/80s Raiders, 1970s Dolphins and 1970s Steelers is hurting the chances of other players from those teams as HOF voters certainly have to be asking how many HOFers can any one team have and in some cases from the same position (OL, DL or LB for example).

132. Paul on June 16, 2014 at 8:22 am

     As to the genesis of an anti-Cowboys bias, Dr Z pointed to the over the top promotion of the Cowboys in the 1970s/80s by then GM Tex Schramm (America Team and all that stuff) that may have annoyed writers to think that the team from the 1960s to 80s and some players were simply overrated.

133. Rasputin on June 16, 2014 at 12:14 pm

     I think it was a combination of the Cowboys’ unparalleled, sustained success (more than the Steelers in most metrics even in the 70s and certainly in the 60s and 80s) and the Schramm driven promotion Paul mentions (though NFL Films actually gave them the “America’s Team” nickname). 20 consecutive winning seasons, 18 Landry era playoff years, 12 conference championship appearances (including 10 in 12 years), and 5 Super Bowl appearances meant they really were on national tv more than any other team. Add to that the 90s dynasty, with its domination and “controversy”, and the anti-Cowboys bias probably got another boost. Most sportswriters, especially if they grew up in certain large northeastern cities (where the country’s media base happens to be), spent their formative years watching their teams lose to the Cowboys year in and year out. The “America’s Team” thing probably seemed to rub salt in the wound, and caused biased writers to look for or invent any excuse they could to talk down the team or stick it to them in some way, no matter how unreasonable and divorced from reality their attacks have been. Among other things that explains the media’s over the top celebration of Pete Gent, a disgruntled former player who will say anything for a buck.

134. Rasputin on June 16, 2014 at 12:16 pm

     I meant 10 conference championship appearances in 13 years.

135. Corey on June 16, 2014 at 12:17 pm

     Yet the funny thing is those Chiefs teams have many Hall of Famers, but the only one I would enshrine over Robinson is Lanier, maybe Bell. I would put Robinson in before I would have put in Thomas, Buchanan or Culp. I think the seniors had its priorities messed up.

136. Corey on June 16, 2014 at 1:17 pm

     If you’re a voter and you’re just upset your team lost to Dallas, you need to get over it. You’re a journalist and need to objective. Time and time again this decade Green Bay has had Chicago’s number, but I have to say Rodgers is on fast track to a bust in Canton. I’m not quite ready to call Clay Matthews a Hall of Famer just yet, but so far he has shown he soon could be worthy of that discussion.

     Same with the Colts in Super Bowl XLI. Manning is a first ballot Hall of Famer and the epitome of one. Harrison is worthy and Wayne has a case himself. I think one day Freeney is going to be there and I would put Vinatieri in as well. Keep your fandom to yourself and be objective as a journalist and voter.

137. BSLO on June 19, 2014 at 6:40 pm

     With the Senior’s pool discussion in mind, I think that we are headed into an interesting stretch of classes. After years of the backlog getting fed with deserving newcomers and top candidates at their positions like Humphrey, Greenwood, Gradishar, Stabler, Brazile, Branch, Anderson, Guy, Hayes and others, we are about to enter about a ten-year stretch where only a handful of very good new candidates will come up. I think it will be a great opportunity to catch up on the backlog of deserving players who retired from the 60’s to the 80’s.

     After this class, the senior’s pool will start considering players who retired in the 1990’s. While it’s debatable whether the voters did a good job on previous decades, they have really done a solid job on the 1990’s as a whole. At this point there are only 35 non-HOF players who retired in the 1990’s that made 5 or more Pro Bowls:

     QB: None
     RB: None
     WR: Mark Clayton, Anthony Miller, Mike Quick, Sterling Sharpe, Steve Tasker
     TE: Keith Jackson, Steve Jordan, Jay Novacek
     T: Chris Hinton, Mike Kenn
     G: Guy McIntyre, Nate Newton
     C: Ray Donaldson, Jay Hilgenberg. Bart Oates, Doug Smith
     DE: Charles Haley, Leslie O’Neal
     DT: Ray Childress, Michael Dean Perry, Fred Smerlas
     LB: Kevin Greene, Greg Lloyd, Karl Mecklenburg, Sam Mills, John Offerdahl, Pat Swilling
     CB: Terry McDaniel
     S: Steve Atwater, Joey Browner, Deron Cherry, Carnell Lake, Tim McDonald, Dennis Smith
     K: None
     P: Rich Camarillo

     For conversation sake, I’ll add 15 other guys that I would say deserve at least some consideration to make it an even 50:
     Ottis Anderson, Gary Clark, Roger Craig, Henry Ellard, Boomer Esiason, Kent Hull, Joe Jacoby, Brent Jones, Albert Lewis, Nick Lowery, Clay Matthews, Stanley Morgan, Reggie Roby, Herschel Walker, Everson Walls, Erik Williams

     I really don’t feel very strongly about the vast majority of these players, and I think to be honest I would only really vouch for 15 of them:

     Atwater, Browner, Cherry, Craig, Greene, Haley, Hilgenberg, Jacoby, Mecklenburg, Mills, Newton, Perry, Sharpe, Swilling, Tasker

     It’s very likely that Haley and Greene won’t see the senior’s vote, and possible that a couple of others like Craig, Atwater and Mecklenburg won’t either. That leaves a pretty shallow senior’s pool.

     Of the guys left that retired in the 1990’s, who do you guys think would make solid candidates? Is there anyone not on my list that you would consider worthy?

138. Rasputin on June 19, 2014 at 7:10 pm

     I’d like to see Sterling Sharpe get in. One could also build strong cases for Everson Walls, Herschel Walker, and some of the others. Walls led the NFL in interceptions three different seasons, including with 11 his rookie year, and finished with 57 INTs.

139. Corey on June 21, 2014 at 7:45 am

     Atwater, Mecklenburg, Tasker, Sharpe, Browner, Craig, Cherry, Ellard and Clark all stand out to me.

     It may be different, but I think Guy getting elected bodes well for Tasker, and it also tells me the Seniors have more guts than the Modern Era does. Still trying to make sense of some things. For example, I have no problem with Humphrey being in but what is with the fixation to nominate him twice in five years? Also, what does it say about Jerry Kramer if Goldberg, Stanfel and Humphrey can all get nominated twice and Kramer gets passed over for a second nomination in favor of Dave Robinson?

140. Rasputin on June 21, 2014 at 11:33 am

     It’s not just a matter of comparing guys at the same position against each other. As with filling out a roster, at some point you have to compare guys from different positions against each other to determine how many you’ll take from each position.

141. Corey on June 21, 2014 at 11:44 am

     I think it shouldn’t be a matter of the number at a position, but rather the merits. There are four senior linebackers who are criminally missing from Canton and a few others worthy of note as well. Some may deserve it over another, but is that to say someone not as deserving is undeserving altogether?

142. Rasputin on June 21, 2014 at 11:58 am

     I agree, which is why I’ve made arguments in the past that some of those LBs are more deserving than many of the non LBs they’ve enshrined.

143. Paul on June 21, 2014 at 12:44 pm

     I must admit at first glance I am not very impressed with the potential 1990s senior candidates, as I feel that there remains perhaps 15-20 better senior candidates already under consideration including several from all decade teams from the 1950s, 60s, 70s and 1980s. Until more of those players get selected I do not see myself supporting any of the 1990s candidates.

144. Corey on June 21, 2014 at 12:48 pm

     I do agree with that, but I also see many 1980s candidates selected in recent years. Many deserving seniors right now, but, my humble opinion, every single senior needs to get in line behind Johnny Robinson.

145. Paul on June 21, 2014 at 12:50 pm

     Even with the election of Guy I think other special team players, especially Steve Tasker, are still facing a huge uphill battle to get elected as the HOF voters will continue to place much more value on full time regular players as they are on the field more and thus have greater impact on the outcome. And on both the modern and senior candidate pools there are just so many players waiting for election, some of these for many years.

146. Paul on June 21, 2014 at 1:03 pm

     Looking back at last 15 years of senior candidate elections, Guy and Humphrey were the only candidates with significant playing years in the 1980s, but both spent most of their career and best seasons in the 1970s. So I doubt the HOF seniors selection committee has moved beyond considering the many pre 1980s players. But I agree that the 1960s still have the most deserving senior candidates awaiting selection.

147. Corey on June 21, 2014 at 1:08 pm

     There’s no rhyme to reason as to why someone is selected. To this day I can’t believe they picked Culp and Robinson with many seniors with greater profiles especially over the latter. If Tasker becomes a senior nominee, I can see him getting elected. I think Guy’s election says the committee isn’t opposed to special teamers, they just had a problem with a regular player being left out. Since Guy was voted on separately, he got elected. Who knows who the Seniors are going to pick this year. It could be someone way overdue like a Johnny Robinson, Chuck Howley or Jerry Kramer. It could be someone who hasn’t been a senior for long like a Gradishar or Kuechenberg. Maybe they’ll shock us with another special teamer like say Jim Bakken, or maybe they’ll choose someone like Plunkett with no Pro Bowls and no First Team All Pros. I’d love to pick the brain of the Senior Committee, but it seems like we have to expect the unexpected with them.

148. Corey on June 21, 2014 at 1:27 pm

     I would also say that there are plenty of pre-1960s candidates worthy as well. I wish some voters would explain to me why Stanfel was denied a second time. 5/5/1950s All Decade seems like a logical Canton choice, especially since Dwight Stephenson had the exact profiles except for the 1980s.

     Joe Fortunato as well is 3/5/1950s, he’s not as criminally missing as a Chuck Howley or Maxie Baughan is, but would I put him in? Sure.

     Mac Speedie didn’t play very long, but it’s hard to argue with what he did in his time.

     Al Wistert, 4/1/1940s All Decade/Captained the Eagles with their back-to-back NFL titles. Get this man in. I’d be ok with Johnny Robinson waiting if it means Wistert was one of the two this year. As a Cubs fan, I know how much the Hall of Fame meant to Ron Santo and he wasn’t elected until after his passing. It was beyond sad he couldn’t be around to enjoy it. Look at Jack Butler, he passed away less than a year after his enshrinement speech. Gene Hickerson was in a wheel chair when he was inducted and couldn’t even give a proper speech and passed away a year later. I hope Wistert stays in good health, but let’s be honest. He’s 93. He has more years behind him than ahead of him. Let him enjoy his moment while he still can.

149. Rasputin on June 22, 2014 at 11:23 am

     I think what’s hurting Mac Speedie is that he only played three years in the NFL, his first four being in the AAFC. I probably would induct him, but then I’d induct Herschel Walker too. I think Drew Pearson is an even more glaring omission from the above finalist list, especially after rewatching the catches he made in the Danny White “point” game against the Falcons broadcast by the NFL Network this weekend. I’ve never seen a more clutch WR.

150. Paul on June 22, 2014 at 12:55 pm

     I have no idea why Stanfel and Kramer have been rejected on multiple occasions, and as much as I would like to see them both elected, not if it comes at the cost of another rejection when that slot could have been given to another senior candidate as a first timer and for a shot at election. Wistert would be a well deserving selection. Again I am not supporter of more special team players, including seniors as so many other better qualified candidates are still waiting, and I do not think that the election of Guy will suddenly open the door for more special team players.

151. Corey on June 22, 2014 at 3:41 pm

     I do agree you don’t want to risk another rejection, but apparently that didn’t stop Claude Humphrey from getting in. I think he deserves it, but just can’t get past the thought of why nominate him a second time so soon when others have better profiles. Still, he’s worthy, so can’t complain too much. If a special teamer deserves it, they deserve it, even if others deserve it more. I can see other special teamers being nominated. Maybe not right away but I think it can happen. Maybe I’m wrong for this, and while I have my list of seniors who I want in, starting with Johnny Robinson, Al Wistert and then everybody else, if, say, Shofner was one of the two nominees, I would say others are more deserving, like that one former safety for Kansas City who should’ve been elected back in the 1980s, but it’d be hard for me to say he shouldn’t be in until others get in first. I think Shofner is a Hall of Famer, just that he isn’t top priority for me.

152. Paul on June 23, 2014 at 1:50 pm

     I can see how the Senior Committee (having also served as members of the full HOF selection committee) may be inclined to bring candidates forward as seniors soon after they moved to the seniors pool after not being elected as modern or in the case of a player like Bob Hayes back a second time as a seniors candidate so soon. The Senior Committee members know more than we do as to the discussions and debates, and closeness of votes, that these players had already endured and how close they may have been to election the first time. But I suspect once a candidate fails to get elected twice, like Shofner, I am not sure any one would be interested in advancing him a third time, especially given that the slot could be used for another deserving candidate.

153. Billy on June 23, 2014 at 4:08 pm

     There are a number of Seniors that I would put into the Hall. Some that I still can’t believe have been omitted although I am probably in the minority with liking Corey Culp two years ago and Claude Humphrey this past year. Here is my list in order of most glaring omission.

     1. Chuck Howley LB
     2. Randy Gradishar LB
     3. Johnny Robinson S
     4. Jerry Kramer G
     5. Lester Hayes CB
     6. Alex Karras DE
     7. Al Wistert T
     8. L.C. Greenwood DE
     9. Mick Tinglehoff C
     10. Pete Retzlaff TE
     11. Mike Curtis LB
     12. Eddie Meador S
     13. Kenny Anderson QB
     14. Tommy Nobis LB
     15. Drew Pearson WR
     16. Cliff Harris S
     17. Maxie Baughan LB
     18. Todd Christansen TE
     19. Bob Kuenchenberg G
     20. Lee Roy Jordan LB

     If any of these players get nominated and then elected, that is fine with me as all twenty of these players, I believe had HOF careers. The order in which some of the seniors get nominated can be debatable but I don’t believe the careers of these players can be.

154. Billy on June 23, 2014 at 4:10 pm

     I would also like to see Karl Mecklenburg get the traction he needs to be considered. I feel like he is the best 80’s player still on the outside looking into the HOF.

155. Brad on June 24, 2014 at 7:53 pm

     Where does Edgerrin James fit in with HOF? He deserves to be inducted within first 4 ballots.

156. Brad on June 24, 2014 at 9:49 pm

     His counting numbers are very good. His Postseason awards not bad. Two rushing titles, 4 seasons of 1,500+. Not many have done that.

157. Rasputin on June 24, 2014 at 10:06 pm

     I don’t now about first four ballots (maybe), but two rushing titles, All Decade status, and nice career totals should be enough to get him in modern era. The lack of too many great contemporary RBs makes him stand out more.

158. Paul on June 25, 2014 at 8:05 am

     Like Bettis I can see James waiting several years for election as although he has some good numbers, he is a little light on all pro/pro bowls and no SB – just the kind of candidate that HOF voters appear to take their time on selecting and one who finds themselves stuck or falling back on the ballot as more qualified players appear each year. The good news is once Bettis, then LT, get elected, he will remain on the ballot as the top RB for some time before the likes of Peterson, Jackson and other 2000s era RBS start to appear.

159. Brad on June 25, 2014 at 4:29 pm

     Bettis seems to be a early front runner for next year. LT will be a first ballot. Steven will have to wait until Edge gets in. 0/3/none vs 3/5/2000s. I see Edge getting in no later than 6th ballot. He was better than The Bus. Jerome had 9 seasons of under 3.9 yards per rush to just 4 of 4.0 or more. Edge has more receptions first 4 seasons than Jerome whole career.

     Another question : Is Tony Gonzalez a first ballot HOFer?

160. Paul on June 25, 2014 at 8:29 pm

     With that profile I am not so sure Steven Jackson ever gets in. He joins a large group of other 10,000 yard RBs who are not getting into the HOF. Given the increasingly diminished role of RBs I can see a future when perhaps only the two starters on an all decade team may get in the HOF.

     And yes Tony G is a lock first ballot HOF – no question.

161. Corey on June 26, 2014 at 9:17 am

     I honestly thought Bettis would’ve been inducted by now. I think next year could get him to maybe the final 10 if the voters want to hold off Warner and James. I say Seau and the two seniors get elected. I’m guessing either a Brown or Harrison get elected. This isn’t like the Baseball Hall of Fame when you can essentially predict the whole class. Next year Randy Johnson, John Smoltz, Pedro Martinez and I guess Craig Biggio picks up those two votes for election. Football is much more complicated I think. Brooks and Jones were locks. Guy and Humphrey you would think as usually but not always both seniors get in. Reed getting elected and especially Williams, that’s tough. So a year from now, for all we know, we could be talking about how Haley is still in the pool while Greene gets ready for his speech. You can never know.

162. Paul on June 26, 2014 at 4:07 pm

     Bettis made the final ten this year which is a clear step forward to election. Haley also made the final ten this year (again) while Greene advanced into the final ten for the first time, so Haley appears to be closer and I suspect elected in 2015 since there is much more buzz about him than Greene. Brown has yet to make the final ten, but Harrison did in year one – so again I would give Harrison the advantage. I think the 2015 modern election may be more predictable than some previous election with clear progress and interest in Haley, Harrison, Shields, a lock in Seau, and possibility for Bettis or Warner. To some degree you can track progress of candidates to election and make some pretty good informed guesses on 1st year candidates, but yes most elections have at least one or even two surprises among the five modern slots.

163. robert ewing on June 26, 2014 at 11:35 pm

     do you think they would consider someone we are not mentioning

164. BSLO on June 26, 2014 at 11:48 pm

     Seau is a lock, and his induction likely means no Kevin Greene this year since they both are commonly classified as OLB’s. I have been overly optimistic on Greene for years, and the opposite on Haley but I think that this year represents Haley’s best chance at induction. I don’t really buy the buzz argument, because he has had writers yelling about him for at least 5-6 years. In that time, he has seen several pass rushers jump over him who had almost no buzz like Rickey Jackson and Chris Doleman. Like Richard Dent, who got leapfrogged out of nowhere by Andre Tippett and Fred Dean, he clearly has a group of voters that haven’t bought his case yet. I think if he gets in, it’s because he’s just about the last pass rusher from his era worth inducting, and Junior Seau represents a better choice at OLB than Greene. If Haley was ever toe to toe with just Kevin Greene in the final 10, I honestly think they would vote Greene in first.

     Elsewhere on the ballot, I think Harrison and Shields are very likely inductees this year. Voters clearly made a judgment call last year on whether to let Harrison in right away or let in the oh-so-close Andre Reed finally get his due. I think hat now that Harrison doesn’t have “first-ballot” written on him, he will easily get in over Brown and obviously over Holt or Bruce. As for Shields, I think he was just a victim of going up against a ton of outstanding linemen in his first three years on the ballot. Pace had a great career, but I can’t in any way see him getting in over a 12-time Pro Bowler on his 4th year on the ballot.

     The last pick is a bit of a wildcard. I think Bettis has a good chance given that he was final 10 last year, and getting him in soon would grease the skids for Edge to get in quicker. I think he definitely waits until Tomlinson gets in, but has no more than a 5-6 year wait. He’ll be at the top of the RB pack until Adrian Peterson retires, so he should be at the forefront of the conversation for years.

     Morten Andersen, Tony Dungy and Ed DeBartolo are huge wildcards. They could truly steal a spot out of nowhere, and would all be deserving. I don’t think John Lynch has a chance yet, and can’t see any of last year’s semi-finalists going on a run to the final 5.

     My guess would be Seau, Haley, Harrison, Shields and Bettis.

165. Paul on June 27, 2014 at 7:42 am

     Who did you have in mind Robert? As it is always possible, like has happened in some previous elections, for a candidate to suddenly appear on the ballot and advance right through to election. But looking over the last few elections clearly some returning players (Haley, Bettis, Shields, Bettis) are gaining momentum towards election and I think we all agree that Seau is a lock. So space would be tight for someone else to squeeze in, but it is always possible.

     As to “buzz” over Haley, every year that he has been passed over the call for his election gets stronger and stronger, and I heard more publicly following the 2014 election then previously, as it did in the past for many others who endured lengthy delays until election (Monk, Carter, Reed etc..). If Greene and Haley were really that close why has Haley made the final ten more often then Greene – clearly the voters are picking Haley over Greene at that stage, but when it comes down to selecting the final five, I think voters have been favoring other players in recent years over Haley – I think that stops in 2015 and he finally gets elected. Again given the strong returns from the 2014 final ten plus Seau and perhaps even Warner, I do not yet see a jump for Anderson and it appears that interest in moving DeBartolo forward has stalled in recent years. But I would agree that Dungy could be a wild card, just not sure his one SB win will be enough to carry him through to election quite yet, and he also has the drawback in the mind of many voters as a contributor and not a player when many voters would prefer to elect players when given a strong pool (which I believe 2015 will have).

     So I would agree with BSLO and stick with my earlier prediction of Seau, Haley, Harrison, Shields, and Bettis. I feel pretty good about the first four, less so on Bettis as that is where Dungey or even Warner may come into play.

166. Robert Ewing on June 30, 2014 at 12:47 am

     im thinking along the the lines of a coach or contributor

167. Robert Ewing on June 30, 2014 at 12:49 am

     as a senior nominee

168. Paul on June 30, 2014 at 9:03 am

     Until we see the semi-finalist list of 25 in November, hard to predict surprise of someone suddenly appearing and advancing to election, in terms of contributors Jimmy Johnson, Dungy, DeBartolo are all possibilities.

     Surprises as a senior nominee, who knows as recent selections have surprised many and seen the committee focus less on awards such as pro bowl and all pro teams to players having unique or special contributions to the game.

169. Corey on July 1, 2014 at 3:30 pm

     Chances Lynch is a surprise electee next year? He reminds me of Aeneas Williams, deserving of enshrinement but I think under the radar career wise.

170. Paul on July 1, 2014 at 3:37 pm

     Not so sure about Lynch as HOF voters have not taken to kindly in considering safeties for election. I think he will eventually get in, but may take a few more years.

171. Corey on July 1, 2014 at 4:15 pm

     Agreed. It’s going to be awfully hard to justify excluding a 2/9 profile who was on one of the best defenses of all time.

172. Paul on July 3, 2014 at 11:54 am

     There are safeties from the all decade teams of the 1960s(AFL), 1970s and 1980s still awaiting even consideration for the HOF, plus for some of those players possible election.

173. Corey on July 4, 2014 at 11:19 am

     I think Lynch was a possible snub from the 2000s team.

174. Paul on July 21, 2014 at 3:00 pm

     We are about four weeks from the traditional timing of the announcement of the next two senior candidates, anyone picking up rumors or buzz circling around any names from other sites or even HOF senior committee members?

175. Brad on July 22, 2014 at 7:28 am

     People(on ESPN blogs) think Chris Snee is a HOFer. What do you guys think? I don’t see him as one. He was good but not all time great.

176. Paul on July 22, 2014 at 9:01 am

     For an OL his career credentials seem pretty weak, especially compared to other top OL of the decade(s) he played in. I doubt he has any chance of election as the list of OL not in the HOF with similar qualifications is pretty long. Unless you are an all decade team member with 5/10 profile, it is pretty hard to get in the HOF as an OL.

177. robert ewing on July 30, 2014 at 4:54 pm

     as we know the hof will be releasing the senior nominees who would be your final 10 to 15 nominees for consideration then see if you can whittle it down to four

178. Paul on July 30, 2014 at 8:03 pm

     RG – Jerry Kramer 5/3/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     G – Bob Kuechenberg 2/6/70s-80s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     C – Mick Tingelhoff 5/6/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     LT – Jim Tyrer 6/9/60-70’s (finalist 2012, 2014)
     QB – Ken Anderson 3/4/70s-80s (finalist 2012, 2014)
     WR – Cliff Branch 4/4 – 70s-80s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     RDT – Roger Brown 2/6/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     LDE – L.C.Greenwood 2/6/70’s (finalist 2013, 2014)
     DT – Alex Karras 0/4 60s (finalist 2012, 2014)
     RLB – Maxie Baughan 2/9/60’s (finalist 2012, 2014)
     MLB – Tommy Nobis 1/5/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2014)
     LLB – Chuck Howley 5/6/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     LB- Mike Curtis 2/4/60s-70s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     CB/S – Eddie Meador 2/6/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     CB – Lester Hayes 1/5/70s 80s (finalist 2012, 2014)
     S – Johnny Robinson 6/7/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     FS – Cliff Harris 3/6/70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)

     1. LLB – Chuck Howley 5/6/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     2. S – Johnny Robinson 6/7/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     3. RG – Jerry Kramer 5/3/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     4. C – Mick Tingelhoff 5/6/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)
     5. FS – Cliff Harris 3/6/70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014)

179. Paul on August 1, 2014 at 2:22 pm

     Looks like change may in the works regarding selection of contributors..

     “Hall of Fame to consider adding separate contributor category”

     “As the Denver Post reports, the Hall of Fame will consider an amendment at its board meeting Friday (Aug 1st) that would increase the maximum who could be elected each year from seven to eight and would erect a new contributors category that would be separate from the modern-day players, much in the same way that senior players currently have their own category.
     http://www.cbssports.com/nfl/eye-on-football/24645634/hall-of-fame-to-consider-adding-separate-contributor-category“

180. Justin on August 1, 2014 at 2:28 pm

     I’m solidly in favor of the new “contributors” category. Assuming it gets approved, I’d like to know who everyone thinks are some of the people who should be considered outside of the obvious (i.e. DeBartolo, Sabol, Tagliabue)? I’ll through out Ron Wolf and Bobby Beathard.

181. BSLO on August 1, 2014 at 2:59 pm

     This great news! Hopefully it passes…I can’t see why it wouldn’t. I don’t really understand why coaches wouldn’t be included in this category, but regardless it gives a tough segment of candidates their own category and is well overdue. It also frees up a couple of spots on the semifinalist and finalist lists, which will make things interesting as well.

182. Paul on August 1, 2014 at 5:17 pm

     It passed, do not have details yet

183. Paul on August 1, 2014 at 5:27 pm

     Number of slots will alternate with seniors: one year seniors get two contributors get one, reverses following year, at this point no news not on numbers for 2015

184. Paul on August 1, 2014 at 5:49 pm

     Contributors get two slots in odd numbered years while seniors get one, changes in even years, for 2015 only one senior slot

185. Paul on August 1, 2014 at 5:55 pm

     Coaches stay with players group

186. Paul on August 1, 2014 at 8:24 pm

     wow, really going to impact the number of seniors getting in by decreasing to one every other year, and quickly open a path for many contributors especially those stuck at semifinalist or finalist list in recent years, look for those contributors not elected in recent years to jump quick into consideration: George Young, Edward DeBartolo, Jr., Art Modell, Paul Tagliabue

     Personally, if they were willing to let the increase in maximum potential elected to 8 each year, I think give the deeper pool for senior candidates that they should have went with 5 modern+2 seniors+1 contributor each year and included coaches as contributors.

187. Andy on August 1, 2014 at 9:21 pm

     Paul, I agree. It’s my only disagreement with the change – the backlog of seniors is much greater than the backlog of contributors, at least in my mind. I took a stab at a quick reaction here: https://www.zoneblitz.com/2014/08/01/hall-fame-add-contributor-selection/

     I’m trying to reach some of the voters to find out what the reasoning was for this – I like the new category, but don’t understand cutting into the senior pool. … I’ll pass along in a separate post anything I learn, if I do.

188. Paul on August 1, 2014 at 10:01 pm

     The HOF voters did not make the change the HOF board did so not sure if voters would have much to say on it although many did call for separate catagory for contributors

189. Corey on August 2, 2014 at 2:10 pm

     Agree with the Contributor category, but come on, only 1 senior in odd number years? I don’t like that at all, not with so many deserving seniors waiting for their turn.

190. Paul on August 2, 2014 at 2:18 pm

     See other post on this topic for place to discuss

191. Brad on August 4, 2014 at 8:46 am

     Is Robert Mathis a HOF worthy player? I see a case one day.

192. Billy on August 4, 2014 at 10:06 am

     I could see Bill Polian, Robert Kraft Ed Debartolo Jr. Now having an easier time getting in. But I agree with the back log of Senior candidates being hurt by this new formula.

193. BSLO on August 4, 2014 at 10:58 am

     Robert Mathis has a good case, but it will depend on how many pass rushers get in from the late 00’s/early 10’s era. I would say that Ware, Peppers, Freeney and Allen look pretty good right now, with Mathis and Abraham heading up the next group. Terrell Suggs is another guy who will be hard to ignore. Mathis having a Super Bowl ring may tilt things in his favour. He also has at least a couple more years to pad his sack totals.

     I would like to see DeBartolo and Wolf get nominations this year. Tagliabue, Modell and Young are all solid candidates as well, but given that Tags and Modell have more than average resistance on the voting body, and Young was at one point voted down in the final 7 vote, I would like to see them push a couple of easy to argue for candidates first.

     In terms of the effect on the senior’s backlog, I said the same thing on another thread, but is the backlog really THAT bad that this is going to set their progress back? How many obviously deserving candidates are currently waiting in the senior’s backlog? I would count only around 20-25:

     QB: None (Ken Anderson is the best)
     RB: None (John David Crow the only guy I could see a good case for, and only because he’s on the 60’s all-decade team)
     WR: Del Shofner, possibly Lionel Taylor…and then a ton of guys with very good, but not great cases
     TE: None (Todd Christensen is the best)
     OL: Mick Tingelhoff, Jerry Kramer, Jim Tyrer, Walt Sweeney, Dick Schafrath, Dick Barwagen, possibly George Kunz and Bob Kuechenberg
     DE: LC Greenwood
     DT: Alex Karras, Roger Brown
     LB: Chuck Howley, Maxie Baughan, Larry Grantham, Randy Gradishar, Robert Brazile…after that it is once again a lot of decent, but not great cases
     CB: Lemar Parrish, Erich Barnes, maybe Dave Grayson and Lester Hayes
     S: Johnny Robinson, Bobby Dillon, Jimmy Patton, Eddie Meador, Cliff Harris
     Other: Verne Lewellen

     I wouldn’t take anyone outside of this list over anybody that was on the semi-finalist list of modern era candidates last year. As I mentioned earlier in this thread, there are also not a lot of great incoming candidates that retired in the 90’s, so I think the senior’s backlog will be fine.

     Who do you guys think will sneak onto the semi-finalist list now that there are a few extra spots available? Personally, I would like to see Zach Thomas, Ben Coates, Neil Smith, Gary Anderson and Eric Allen get a kick at the can. My personal favourite would be Jeron Cherry, but I don’t see the point since he only has 2 years left as a modern era candidate.

194. Paul on August 4, 2014 at 3:22 pm

     Just from the list BSLO juut posted (which is a pretty good one) we are still looking at least 25 strong senior candidates whereas my thought was that there are perhaps only 10-12 equally strong contributors. So with 8 slots for contributors over the next five years compared to 7 slots for seniors, to me the senior candidates are getting off worse: 2x many candidates for similar number of slots. Plus many of these senior candidates are in their 70s and 80s, so taking even an extra year or two increases risk that they may not live long enough to experience it.

195. boknows34 on August 4, 2014 at 3:51 pm

     I would’ve kept the seniors nominations at 2 each year with a contributor nominated every other year, starting next year, so odd years would be the time to hear their case.

196. BSLO on August 4, 2014 at 5:14 pm

     Oops forgot Al Wistert in my list.

197. Paul on August 4, 2014 at 8:10 pm

     And I have already seeing online a number of articles and blogs speculating about the HOF modern class (some of them not accounting for the changes to electing seniors and contributors), rather then post them all here, as anyone can Google and read them for themselves, seems like there is some agreement on Seau, Haley, Harrison, and plenty of debate over Pace, Warner and Shields. Was interesting in the number of articles that seemed to suggest that Warner and Pace were “sure bet” or “lock”, and some that completely dismissed the chances for Haley, Shields and Harrison but then again we see those predictions every year.

     In MMQB today, Peter King of SI (also a HOF voter) admitted that even as a voter he is often surprised by the results, but makes an early prediction of Seau, Haley, Harrison, Shields and Pace (or Bettis). Yes I before anyone posts I know not everyone likes King or agrees with his views, but as a national writer with a huge following and a HOF voter, and perhaps some respect among the HOF voters, his insights on the HOF voting are often insightful and revealing. All I can say is that in the past he has played a role on occasion getting some players elected or not elected, including seniors, by his opinions and perhaps influence on the Committee.

198. Paul on August 10, 2014 at 11:51 am

     Now that the new election process allows for only one senior nominee in 2015 anyone wish to provide their best guess as to whom will be selected in two weeks (should be announced around Aug 20th)?

     I am going with Mick Tingelhoff (although if I was making the choice it would be Chuck Howley)

199. Brad on August 10, 2014 at 12:02 pm

     T-Sizzle and his DROY and DPOY is rare. His 1/5/none isn’t stellar compared to the other pass rushers but his ring and accolades trump what the others have.

200. Brad on August 10, 2014 at 12:03 pm

     Sorry meant 1/6/none

201. BSLO on August 11, 2014 at 11:23 pm

     I hope Tingelhoff gets the nod this time around. He seems to be very close to a nomination, so I will keep my fingers crossed. Howley would obviously also be a great option. Both are in my personal top 5 in terms of senior candidates, and you could argue that they are the two most snubbed seniors out there since neither has ever even made the finalist list.

     If Suggs can finish around the top 15-20 all-time in sacks, it will be tough to keep him out. As you mentioned, his profile of 1/5/none isn’t great but his additional resume puts him over the top for me. I would probably choose him over John Abraham or Robert Mathis, and given how inconsistent his career has been…maybe even Dwight Freeney.

202. Rasputin on August 12, 2014 at 12:47 am

     No predictions, but at this point I’m all about Howley. Every year he’s not inducted the HoF loses more credibility in my eyes.

203. Paul on August 12, 2014 at 10:55 am

     Let’s keep in mind that that only 5 people vote on the final selection of the senior candidate – thus why it is almost impossible to predict these selections. And as much as I would like to see Howley selected (or one of several other also very deserving senior candidates), I am not going to let the decision of five people taint the rich history and legacy that the PFHOF and its members represent.

204. Brad on August 12, 2014 at 4:49 pm

     Is Bryant Young a HOFer?

205. Rasputin on August 12, 2014 at 8:06 pm

     Except this isn’t occurring in a vacuum, Paul, nor is it an isolated problem.

206. Paul on August 13, 2014 at 9:00 am

     And no election process or group of voters is ever going to be perfect, there are always going to people complaining about how the elections are conducted and players elected and those not. At the end of the day selecting individuals to elect to the PFHOF from 15-25 deserving candidates is always going be subjective and include bias and personal opinions.

207. Rasputin on August 13, 2014 at 2:40 pm

     There are degrees of imperfection.

208. Paul on August 18, 2014 at 5:52 pm

     Look for announcement of the one 2015 senior candidate on wednesday afternoon only buzz I am seeing is for Mick Tingelhoff

209. Paul on August 19, 2014 at 1:04 pm

     Here is a partial list posted on the PFRA website of HOF senior candidates under consideration this week by the seniors committee for class of 2015:
     “Klecko, Brazile, Tingelhoff, Kramer, Branch, Pat Fischer, Randy Gradishar, Bobby Boyd, Ed Meador, Johnny Robinson, LC Greenwood, Mike Curtis, Chuck Howley. Not the full 15 . . . .close”

210. Paul on August 19, 2014 at 1:11 pm

     posters on PFRA when asked to support one candidate – are all selecting Howley

211. boknows34 on August 20, 2014 at 11:32 am

     Seniors Committee are currently in a meeting to select their nominee for 2015.

212. Robert Ewing on August 20, 2014 at 1:41 pm

     Mick Tingelhoff is the nominee great choice

213. Brad on November 3, 2014 at 10:17 am

     Ben Roethlisberger is first player in NFL history to have back to back 6 TD games and with zero ints to boot. I remember some of you said he hasn’t had that one great year. Well, I think 2014 is it,

214. Rasputin on November 4, 2014 at 4:21 pm

     Roethlisberger needs more than one great year, much less a couple of great games, to earn his way into the Hall of Fame.

215. Brad on November 5, 2014 at 7:58 am

     22 TDs -3 ints is a couple of games? I was just saying what he has done last 2 games. He is also 2nd quickest to 100 wins as a starter. He has had other great years too. We view Peyton Manning as the greatest regular season QB ever. He has 1 season of more than 25 TDs and less than 9 ints. Ben has 1 season as well and is on pace for one this season. And Peyton had Reggie Wayne and Marvin Harrison to throw to. Ben also averages more yards per attempt for career(7.9), which is good for 6th all time.

216. Rasputin on November 5, 2014 at 9:30 pm

     Your key words there “2 games”. Also, Peyton Manning has almost 70,000 yards, 13 Pro Bowls, 515 TDs, a 97.7 career passer rating, and a record 5 NFL MVPs.

217. Paul on November 6, 2014 at 11:03 am

     Lets keep in mind that Ben already has 2 SBs, with this great season (pro bowl, possible All Pro, consideration for MVP) he is adding to his HOF case, I am not saying he is 1st year selection or at this point set to get into the HOF but he already has a case and building a stronger one. After Manning, Brady, Brees, Ben is going to be among the next set of 2000s/2010s QBs to be considered.

218. Rasputin on November 6, 2014 at 1:33 pm

     I’m not saying Roethlisberger is Trent Dilfer, but he’s closer to Dilfer than he is to Peyton Manning.

219. Paul on November 6, 2014 at 2:53 pm

     Very few QBs will compare to Manning and many including those in the HOF would be closer to Dilfer than Manning. Getting your team into 3 SBs and winning 2 is not something many other QBs can say they did. His career and season numbers are not fantastic, but actually may above average and he will end up with over 40,000 yards passing and close to 300 TDs (and 2x as many TDs as INT) with plenty of wins in regular season and playoffs (none of which are close to Dilfer numbers), and big signature games and wins. I am not saying his election is an easy given, but he will retire with qualifications that will keep him in the HOF discussion for some time and eventual election. His case is very similar to Eli Manning who will have the same opportunity and challenge to get elected.

220. Brad on November 6, 2014 at 3:59 pm

     Peyton Manning beat Rex Grossman in the Super Bowl. Rex is perhaps the worst QB ever to make the Super Bowl. Ben beat Kurt Warner, who is perhaps top 14 QB ever to play. The difference between Ben and Eli is that Ben has 51 less ints. Eli has a mere 4 whole more passing TDs. Ben has an Int % of 2.7, Peyton is a whole 0.1% better. Peyton has had plenty of offensive weapons. Ben , not so much. And Paul said what I was going to say. Ben led his team to 3 Super Bowls, winning 2. Peyton is better for career, but Ben has the ringS not ring.

221. Brad on November 6, 2014 at 4:06 pm

     I meant the 2 games as a “resume booster” type of thing.

222. Paul on November 6, 2014 at 9:09 pm

     I am not going to get into a debate as to who is better or more worthy, or compare anyone – especially to Peyton Manning – just that in this era SB wins by QBs are a major factor considered by the HOF voters, so any QB with some very good to great seasons and career numbers that also have 2 SB wins (Ben and Eli) are going to be in the discussion some time post retirement after they become eligible. Not that they get in the 1st year or before other players, including other QBs from their era, but they deserve and will get serious consideration and strong chance of election some year.

223. Rasputin on November 6, 2014 at 10:25 pm

     Paul said: “Very few QBs will compare to Manning and many including those in the HOF would be closer to Dilfer than Manning.”

     I disagree.The elite QBs considered shoo-ins from this era are closer to Peyton Manning than Trent Dilfer.

     Brad said: “Peyton Manning beat Rex Grossman in the Super Bowl. Rex is perhaps the worst QB ever to make the Super Bowl.”

     I don’t know, in that first Super Bowl against Seattle Roethlisberger posted a passer rating of 22.6. He completed 43% of his passes (9 total completions!) for 0 TDs and 2 INTs. In Grossman’s one appearance he had a passer rating of 68.3, completing 71% of his passes (20 completions) for 1 TD and 2 INTs. For the record Dilfer had an 80.9 rating.

     You want to talk about Roethlisberger’s WRs, but you seem to be forgetting his SB winning TEAMS were carried by the defense, not the offense. In career yardage, 70k is becoming the new 40k. Getting to 40k is still good, but it hasn’t been enough by itself to vault someone to the HoF for years now (ask Vinny T., who racked up over 46k and, btw, also has 2 Pro Bowls). INT. % is often a function of a dink and dunk offense (see Donovan McNabb, who retired with 2.2% despite having a poor completion percentage that was below average for his era), but most QBs’ INT%s are close to each other anyway. Joining Peyton Manning at “a whole 0.1% better” than Roethlisberger are guys like Kyle Orton, Byron Leftwich, Bernie Kosar, Chad Pennington, and Steve McNair. I do agree that Ben might be a better QB than Eli though (it’s close), but then I wouldn’t automatically enshrine Eli either.

224. Paul on November 7, 2014 at 8:46 am

     I am not saying Ben or Eli are “shoo-ins” from this era, just that in the SB era, QBs who win 2 or more SBs are going to get serious HOF consideration by the voters, especially if they can put up very good season or career numbers. And I already stated that the elite from this era consist of Manning, Brady and Brees, every other QBs with major season or career numbers including 2 or more SB wins are below those three. And since we have already had some discussion and agreement that 5 or even 6 QBs from the 2000s/early 2010s era are getting into the HOF, after those three plus Kurt Warner, at least two more QBs are getting in and Ben and Eli are going to be in that discussion as no others have gotten them team into and won multiple SBs. That is why Ben and Eli are going to get serious discussion and very possible election, when the likes of Orton, Kosar, Phil Sims, McNair, Pennington and Vinny T are not, regardless of how their various season and career numbers compare and stack up. And without major career numbers and at least won SB (that is is looking more likely neither is going to get this year or soon), Rivers and Romo are going to fall short -regardless of how some would present their career and season numbers, 2 SB wins is going to carry weight with the HOF voters.

225. Brad on November 7, 2014 at 10:03 am

     I’m saying for a career Rex is one of the least qualified to make the Super Bowl. There is a reason why Bears bailed on him 3 years after they made the Super Bowl. They made it that far because 90% was D and 10% Thomas Jones. Jones opened up a lot for Rex rushing for over 7 yards per carry, but he managed to only score 10 points in the SB. Devin Hester took opening kick for a TD kick return. You’re not beating Peyton scoring 10 in a game, although Seahawks proved otherwise.

226. Brad on November 7, 2014 at 10:07 am

     Ben doesn’t have a good defense this year and is having a decent season and last 3 seasons(including this year) not too bad either.I say he can play another 4-5 years at a high level. His defense didn’t stop the cardinals entirely. Larry Fitzgerald gashed them big time, then Ben came in and saved the day.

227. Billy on November 7, 2014 at 10:13 am

     I know he has only played a couple of years but his numbers are staggering for a Tight End. If he only had two more productive seasons would Rob Gronkowski be a Hall of Famer? His skill set as a blocker and receiver seems to be ahead of any Tight end already enshrined and those that will be on the ballot. Tony Gonzalez was awesome but Tony in his prime and Gronkowski in his…. I take Gronkowski!

228. bachslunch on November 7, 2014 at 10:40 am

     Re Rob Gronkowski: if he had say only two more great seasons and then had his career end, he’d look a lot like Todd Christensen — who hasn’t gotten in the HoF and likely won’t anytime in the foreseeable future. Agreed he’s got a few splendid years under his belt so far, though. He’s going to have to stay healthy and put up a minimum of 2-3 more top seasons plus ca. 5-6 more just okay years to have much of a shot. Plus he overlaps just enough with Tony Gonzalez, Jason Witten, and Antonio Gates, which won’t make things any easier.

229. Brad on November 7, 2014 at 11:29 am

     Even as a Jet fan, Rob is on his way to the HOF. He is still only 25. He can get 100 TDs for a career in next 5-6 years as long as he is healthy. I except him to make 1-2 more AP teams and be named a pro bowler another 4-5 times. That will be enough for HOF.

230. Brad on November 7, 2014 at 11:32 am

     except ha sorry expect

231. Rasputin on November 7, 2014 at 12:55 pm

     Jim Plunkett won 2 SBs and isn’t in the HoF, Paul. The other eligible QBs to win multiple SBs – Starr, Griese, Staubach, Bradshaw, Montana, Aikman, and Elway are all clearly HoF quality. Winning SBs may have put them over the top but it’s not their entire case. Phil Simms isn’t in the HoF, despite winning a SB and doing most of the QB work leading his team back there in 1990 before getting injured right before the playoffs.

232. Rasputin on November 7, 2014 at 1:00 pm

     I meant to add that Ben and Eli might get “consideration”, but maybe it should be the same sort of consideration that Plunkett has received. I also think it’s premature to write off Rivers or Romo SB chances. In this era it just takes someone getting healthy and on a streak at the right time.

233. anonymous on November 8, 2014 at 9:27 pm

     that’s silly Rasputin saying that ben will get the same consid as plunkett im sorry I cant take you seriously what is your hatred with ben

234. Rasputin on November 8, 2014 at 11:40 pm

     I can’t take you seriously until you learn punctuation, anonymous. I don’t “hate” Ben (though he’s not without character baggage), but was pointing out that winning 2 SBs doesn’t automatically punch a QB’s ticket to Canton.

235. Paul on November 9, 2014 at 4:35 pm

     And I never said 2 SB wins means a QB can “punch their ticket” into the HOF, all I said is that HOF voters place plenty of weight to SB wins when considering QBs and for that reason (and above average season, playoff and career numbers including wins) Eli and Ben will get serious consideration. Plunkett has some pretty bad career numbers and never once made the Pro Bowl, he tossed 34 more career INTs compared to TDs, and with a career rating of 67.5 and 52% completion, pretty bad career numbers from any era, especially for the early ’80s when he had his best success winning the two SBs. Both Ben and Eli are way better HOF candidates at QB position (not that I would hate Plunkett getting in as a senior perhaps some day in the distinct future). Sims also has some pretty average to below average season and career numbers and only one SB win.

236. Rasputin on November 10, 2014 at 3:41 pm

     I never claimed you did say their ticket would automatically be punched, Paul. I was technically agreeing with you in that they would and should receive “consideration”, just as I’m sure Plunkett has (I’ve seen calls for his enshrinement). I’m glad we agree that factors other than SB wins are extremely important. I agree that Ben’s and Eli’s stats are somewhat better than Plunkett’s (but not by that much adjusted for era average), and that they have slightly stronger cases for the HoF, but I think in both cases if their primary claim to fame is the SB wins (which it is) they should fall short.

237. Paul on November 11, 2014 at 8:07 am

     With season and career numbers, plus 2 SBs Ben and Eli will get serious consideration for election to the HOF, their cases are not based only on the SB wins as they have had pro bowl seasons and will end up with very good season and career numbers. They will end up in the final 15 early in their retirement, much further then Plunkett ever has and much stronger calls and eventual election. Although I can agree that their cases are not strong and can see several years wait once HOF voters get past Manning, Brady, Brees, and perhaps even Rodgers, Ben and Eli will be next considered for election, including above Rivers and Romo. I think you are selling their careers and value of multiple SB wins for QBs in this era short and dismiss what have been very good seasons and careers. They certainly are way above the qualifications for Plunkett who has yet to even make the finalist list and lingers now in the seniors pool – a fate that does not await Eli and Ben.

238. Rasputin on November 11, 2014 at 3:44 pm

     You seem to be equivocating between acknowledging that “their cases are not strong” and implying that you think they will be inducted through the modern era process. I don’t make predictions as Canton too often screws up, but I agree that their cases are not strong. Indeed both are closer to Plunkett than Peyton Manning or Drew Brees for that matter.

     I took the simple yearly mathematical NFL averages of completion percentages and passer ratings from the 2004-2014 (so far) period that spans both Eli and Ben’s careers. While technically not the best comparison, I don’t have time right now to calculate the full total comp. per./passer rating for that span, and this rough approximation is easily good enough to give an idea of where they stand.

     Completion Percentage; Passer Rating

     NFL Average – 60.7%; 82
     Eli Manning – 58.2%; 82
     Ben Roeth. – 63.7%, 93.8

     Eli Manning’s career completion percentage is actually below average and his passer rating is right at average, both strange places for an alleged HoF quality QB to be in such important metrics. Eli also only has 3 Pro Bowls, and has averaged around 232 y/g, pedestrian for this era. He’s thrown 246 TDs to 177 INTs for a 1.39 ratio, dismal for this era.

     Roethlisberger’s stats are better than Eli’s, though he only has 2 Pro Bowls. While good, he still has 9 21st Century era players ranking ahead of him on completion percentage, and 6 such players ranking ahead of him on passer rating, including Romo and Rivers in both categories. He also has 242 TDs and 147 INTs for a 1.6 ratio; better than Eli but still not very good. Ben has averaged roughly around 245 y/g, which underscores how little his team has been carried by the passing game over the years.

     These are largely SB based cases, so let’s examine how they performed in the Super Bowl. In the Steelers’ first SB win Ben posted a 22.6 passer rating, completing 42.9% of his passes for 123 yards, 0 TDs, and 2 INTs. Hardly the stuff of legends. He did better in the other two, posting a 93.2 rating in the one they won and a 77.4 rating in the one they lost, but even in those two games he threw as many interceptions as touchdowns in each, a combined 3-3. His career SB passer rating stands at 69.9. Manning performed better, posting ratings of 87.3 and 107.3, with a career SB rating of 96.2. But let’s remember that Jim Plunkett posted SB ratings of 145 and 97.4, with a career SB rating of 122.8. Plunkett outshone the other two on the biggest stage. While their regular season stats and overall HoF cases are stronger than his, the margin isn’t huge. Also remember that at least one official later apologized to Seattle for essentially screwing them with bad calls, and many viewers (including me) thought that bad officiating likely handed the SB against the Cardinals to the Steelers too.

     Poor SB performances aside, Ben has the superior regular season stats and a better HoF case than Eli. However, there is no credible, rational argument against Romo or Rivers leapfrogging him and Eli if they win at least one Super Bowl. Even if they don’t win a SB and make it into Canton, that doesn’t necessarily mean Ben or Eli should. A guy with only 2 Pro Bowls, dismal SB stats, and good but not great regular season stats shouldn’t be assured of his eventual HoF status.

239. Paul on November 11, 2014 at 5:01 pm

     I am willing to reconsider the cases for Romo and Rivers only if they can win a SB but time and health is quickly running out on both of them as this year does not look good for either getting that win.

     Eli has some playoff big wins and signature plays in both SBs and his case is certainly worth considering and much better then Plunkett who never made a pro bowl and had some pretty average to poor seasons.

     As to the bad officiating in SB wins, forget that argument as the fans from every team who loses a big game complains that they got robbed – not going to make any difference in how his legacy and HOF case is made.

     Again I never said both would have easy path to election, but they will advance into the final 15 soon after they are eligible and will be in the discussion for several years as the second tier of 2000s/2010s QBs are considered by the mid 2020s.

     I think you are being very quick and dismissive of their chances, especially when comparing to the situation Plunkett has been in when it comes to delayed and very unlikely HOF election.

240. Rasputin on November 11, 2014 at 10:06 pm

     You’re mostly just repeating points I’ve already addressed, agreed with, or refuted, but your officiating spin is new, so I’ll reiterate that in this case the official himself acknowledged blowing major calls in that Super Bowl and went so far as to personally apologize to the Seahawks years later. Also, like millions of other viewers who thought the Steelers got lucky officiating breaks, I’m neither a Seahawks nor a Cardinals fan.

     As for being dismissive, show me another HoF QB with only 2 or 3 Pro Bowls, no first team All Pro selections, and mediocre completion percentage and passer rating stats. The closest example might be Terry Bradshaw, with 3 Pro Bowls and less than stellar stats, but he had a first team All Pro selection, FOUR Super Bowl wins, and was All Decade (rightly or wrongly).

241. Paul on November 12, 2014 at 10:21 am

     My only point regarding the Steeler SB win over the Seahawks is that the officiating issue should not -and will not – impact Ben’s case for the HOF based on two HOF wins, it will be a non-factor for the voters. History documents the SB as a Steeler win, there are no * for the officiating. And in this era, right or wrong, QBs get the blame for losses and majority of credit for wins, including what it takes to get a team through the season, into the playoffs, and advance into and win the SB – regardless of their overall numbers and performance – doing so is a major achievement pinned on QBs, so both Ben and Eli will get plenty of HOF consideration because of those wins.

     The number of QBs with two SB (or NFL championships) is a pretty small list to start with, and yes they have more all pro/pro bowls, again I am not stating that Ben or Eli are “locks” but they will end their career with at least two SBs (within a very competitive SB era in the 2000s/2010s) and very good career and some very good season career numbers. If we concede that 5-6 QBs from the 2000s/2010s era are going to get in the HOF eventually, Ben and Eli are among the top in the 2nd tier of those QBs.

242. Rasputin on November 12, 2014 at 11:49 am

     I don’t know that there are hard and fast rules about anything being a “non-factor”. Sometimes even off the field stuff has reportedly kept certain players out, even while it wasn’t enough to keep other players out. At least you acknowledge that Ben and Eli aren’t locks for the HoF.

     I think the mix of “2000s/2010s” QBs includes Peyton, Kurt Warner, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, and Brett Favre, with a next tier currently including Romo, Rivers, Ben, and Eli, and Romo and Rivers likely needing a SB win to vault into Canton, while Ben and Eli aren’t guaranteed a spot either way. Regarding this writing off business though, I’ll point out that Romo is currently on pace to have his best ever statistical season.

243. Paul on November 12, 2014 at 12:31 pm

     My point was that none of the HOF voters are going to discount the Steelers win over the Seahawks, he will get full credit as the QB who got them to the game which they won. And I never said they were locks or guaranteed, but that they will be in the discussion including as finalists which means they have a very good chance at election as majority of those who make the final 15 eventually do get elected. And they will have the case as QBs from the 2000s/2010s era to get to the finalist level. My only issue has been that Eli and Ben are not comparable to Plunket (who has never even been a finalist, when Eli and Ben are going to get to the level for consideration after they are eligible even if that may take 5-10 years).

244. Robert Ewing on November 12, 2014 at 2:01 pm

     on another note, the semifinalists should be coming out soon how many first timers will be on there and will there be surprises?

245. Paul on November 12, 2014 at 2:13 pm

     With the contributors removed I would expect a few new faces as “surprises” – folks who have to date have not made the semi-finalist list. As to 1st time eligible here are the likely ones: Warner, Pace, Seau, Bruce, Holt, James, Law. And expect the press release on 2015 list next Wednesday or Thursday.

246. Rasputin on November 12, 2014 at 2:58 pm

     They certainly are comparable to Plunkett in that he, like they, won two Super Bowls. Their stats and overall cases are stronger than his, but not by that much, I’ve shown with a plethora of facts.

247. Paul on November 12, 2014 at 4:28 pm

     Plunkett never was selected to a Pro Bowl and had some terrible seasons and a horrible career passing rating and more INTs than TDs – those are the numbers keeping him out of the HOF and numbers for which both Eli and Ben exceed, regardless of the respective different eras. His lack of pro bowls and more INT compared to TD can not be avoided and key numbers for which both Eli and Ben are much better, and those are the numbers you simply are ignoring when making your comparison yet they are key QB numbers to be considered. There is simply no way that the HOF cases for Eli and Ben compare to Plunkett. I agree they are not “locks” but their cases are much better and will get deserved attention and consideration as finalists.

248. Corey on November 12, 2014 at 9:42 pm

     I think it would be Eli first, then Ben, then Plunkett. That is, if I were to rank them in order. Ben was never Super Bowl MVP. Manning won it twice. I think that may be taken into consideration also.

249. Rasputin on November 13, 2014 at 12:14 am

     I’m not ignoring anything, but you’re ignoring era adjustment. Ben and Eli play in a far more pass friendly, stat inflated era. Paul, you keep throwing out vague assertions in response to hard facts I post. Eli’s stats are actually BELOW or at average in the most key metrics, which is terrible for a HoF case. Ben only has two Pro Bowls and some of the worst Super Bowl stats in NFL history. Do these guys have a stronger case than Plunkett? Sure. But to say they aren’t even comparable is a stretch. Let’s put it this way, Ben and Eli are even less comparable to guys like Drew Brees and Peyton Manning than they are to Plunkett.

250. Paul on November 13, 2014 at 10:21 am

     I never said Ben or Eli were close in comparison to Brees, Mannning and Brady, I always referred to them as the 2nd tier of HOF candidates as QBs from 2000s/2010s, so I view them somewhere in the middle and not that close to Plunkett. I am not so sure why pointing out the poor career numbers of Plunkett when compared to numbers of Eli and Ben is considered “vague assertions”. And era adjustment does not account for Plunkett having more INT than TDs and a very poor pass rating. What Eli has going for him is he led two SB winning drives as a huge underdog and won SB MVPs in both games, his overall career numbers may be average but if the HOF was only about pure numbers then voters should only select the top 5 statistical leaders at each position from a decade and elect them only. But the HOF is not just about numbers and as I have stated before in my view the HOF is about the history of the game and how it is “recorded” and remembered, and Eli is a key part of that history from the 2000s/2010s era. Again I am not stating either will get in easily but both should and will be in the discussion as candidates for some time when eligible and personally I would have no problem seeing both eventually in, especially given the number of more questionable recent elections.

251. Rasputin on November 13, 2014 at 2:18 pm

     “And era adjustment does not account for Plunkett having more INT than TDs and a very poor pass rating.”

     Not completely, but it does greatly reduce the gap between Plunkett and the other two. Neither Eli or Ben are close to having a 2 to 1 TD to INT ratio, which is the minimum that elite franchise QBs in this era strive for. As for career completion percentage and passer rating, again, taking the simple mathematical NFL averages from 1971-1986 (not technically ideal but a rough figure more than adequate for our purposes):

     Completion Percentage; Passer Rating

     NFL Average – 53.8%, 66.3
     Jim Plunkett – 52.5%, 67.5

     Plunkett’s “very poor passer rating” is actually better than the NFL average, unlike Eli’s, and his completion percentage is just slightly below, as Eli’s is. See what I mean? Such era adjustment might leave Plunkett with better career numbers in those important metrics than Eli. And do you really want to feature Super Bowl performance comparisons?

252. bachslunch on November 14, 2014 at 1:33 pm

     FWIW, in Kiran Rasaretnam’s rankings

     http://newqbrating.blogspot.com/2010/04/c-scores-new-way-to-evaluate-pro.html

     Plunkett ranks 90th out of 95 in “Best 7” and dead last of 50 in “Best 10.” No idea how Eli and Big Ben would rank when they’re done by using this method, but am hard pressed to see them being as bad as Plunkett.

253. Rasputin on November 14, 2014 at 1:50 pm

     Yeah, I’m not surprised. From what I remember his method is based on interceptions, and Plunkett did have a lot of those. That’s why I’ve said from the beginning that Eli and Ben would both have a stronger HoF case than Plunkett, but the overall gap isn’t that huge, and Plunkett’s passer rating and completion percentage are very similar to Eli’s in era adjusted terms.

254. Paul on November 15, 2014 at 9:03 am

     2015 Semifinalists to be announced on NFL Network show on Tuesday evening (Nov 18th)

255. chris on November 17, 2014 at 5:25 pm

     great, what time will it be or will it be announced tomorrow i guess?

256. Rasputin on November 17, 2014 at 7:31 pm

     It’d be nice if Darren Woodson gets enough respect to at least make the semi-finalist list this time.

257. BSLO on November 17, 2014 at 9:53 pm

     Excited to see the semi list tomorrow! I am a little unsure of whether Holt, Bruce, James and Law will jump right into the final 25, but if not we could be in for some new faces on the list. Woodson would certainly be near the top of my list of guys that deserve a shot.

     I’d also place Zach Thomas, Gary Anderson, Jay Hilgenberg, Tony Boselli, Eric Allen, Cornelius Bennett and Dick Vermeil up there.

258. Paul on November 18, 2014 at 9:58 am

     NFL Network show “Gold Jacket Semifinalists” airs tonight (Nov 18th) live at 10pm, so look for official releases via HOF as show progresses as I doubt HOF will jump the gun and announce before the show. Websites, blogs and Twitter will be place to look for immediate news as HOF is usually slow on updates to its website.

     Holt, Bruce and James have pretty good career numbers to justify appearing on the top 25 which has room with the removal of the 2014 elected plus the loss of contributors. Here is my best guess (and suspect I will only get 20 or so correct):

     Morton Anderson
     Steve Atwater
     Jerome Bettis
     Tim Brown
     Isaac Bruce
     Don Coryell
     Roger Craig
     Terrell Davis
     Tony Dungy
     Kevin Greene
     Charles Haley
     Torry Holt
     Marvin Harrison
     Edgerrin James
     Jimmy Johnson
     Ty Law
     John Lynch
     Clay Matthews
     Kevin Mawae
     Karl Mecklenburg
     Orlando Pace
     Junior Seau
     Will Shields
     Steve Tasker
     Kurt Warner

259. robert ewing on November 18, 2014 at 1:12 pm

     That’s a good list Paul just curious how close was Gary anderson (kicker) to making ur list

260. Paul on November 18, 2014 at 2:26 pm

     I was thinking that one kicker on the semi-finalist list (along with special teamer Steve Tasker) is about as much as one would expect. Gary Anderson is likely among the next grouping above 25. Personally I have posted before I do not get that excited about the semi-finalist list as reality is ten of those are obviously not going to be finalists and that list is within a few slots perhaps easy to determine starting with the ten 2014 finalists plus likely 1st timers, and then a few surprises. So I do not spend much time and effort on the last 5 or so slots on the semi-finalists which could come from a larger group of candidates and as none are going to get into finalist list at least this year.