Bet the Mortgage: Week 2, 2014 NFL Best Bets

After a mostly putrid 2013 season of betting, Tony and I actually both start the season ahead after one week. We took completely opposite paths toward getting there – Tony was aggressive out of the gate, laying more than 20 percent of his hypothetical opening bankroll on the line. I took it easy a bit, wagering less than 10 percent. Between us we hit five of eight picks and added a push.

Here’s where we stand so far:

Andy:

I’m often amazed by how close to dead on Vegas gets the point spreads. I was out in Sin City briefly last weekend and I placed small bets on five games. I hit two and missed two going into the Sunday night game between the Broncos and Colts. I had the over on a 55.5 point number. The final number was 55, so a single point pushed me from winner to loser for the weekend.

While I find it challenging finding holes in the lines early in the season there are a couple I think may be slightly off this week … so here goes.

$400 – Jacksonville (+7, -110) at Washington – Maybe I’m a fool, but what has Washington done to warrant being a touchdown favorite over anyone? Jacksonville’s not good, but yep, at 5dimes.eu, you can get that number. The Jags gave the Eagles everything they could handle last week. Meanwhile RGIII and Co. put up a dud of a game. I’m not convinced Jacksonville wins outright, but I’ll give a TD without any regret.

$200 – Cleveland (+6.5, -110) vs New Orleans – Guess it’s the week of the underdog for me. The Saints can put points up on the board at will, but they’re many times better at home and on turf. A couple years ago the Saints went into Cleveland and lost. I think the Saints probably win, but the Browns came together a bit in the second half of last week’s loss to Pittsburgh. I think they can slow down the Saints enough to keep it closer than people think.

$400 – Arizona (-2.5, -110) at New York Giants – These teams both played on Monday night. Arizona should be riding high off the momentum of their comeback win over San Diego. The Giants played an ugly game in losing to Detroit. These teams are headed in opposite directions – Arizona has a chance at the playoffs. The Giants have an outside shot at Marcus Mariota. It surprises me greatly the spread isn’t bigger.

$300 – Upset of the Week: Detroit (Moneyline +130) at Carolina – The Panthers surprised a few people last week by knocking off the touted Buccaneers last week. I’m not sure why. Tampa hasn’t proven much and Josh McCown is, well, Josh McCown. Carolina can still be competitive despite letting its entire receiving corps go during the offseason. But this week will be different – they’re facing a Detroit team with far more proven offensive weapons than the Bucs have. And while the Carolina defense will keep them in a lot of games this year, I don’t think this team is going to win many games when they have to score. The Lions can use this game as a showcase to let the league this is a different team than the talented-but-dumb versions of the last couple seasons.

Tony:

I intended to back off a bit this week…but looks like I still almost broke the 20% threshold. Don’t love this week’s slate of games—almost threw a nickel on the Vikings to upset the Patriots, but I know that homerism would just lead to disappointment. I also really wanted to keep riding the Giants losing ways, but I always worry about those west coast teams traveling east to play at noon (1pm ET)—and the Cardinals always seem to take that rough in particular. So, here’s hopefully more than nothing…

$500 – New Orleans (-7, +110) at Cleveland – At a more liberal sports book, they’re paying positive to give an extra half point to the Browns. While the Browns fought valiantly in Week 1 (and the Saints choked away a lead), I don’t think the Browns can repeat their performance against the Saints, even with New Orleans traveling.

$750 – Tennessee Titans (-3.5, Even) vs Dallas – The Cowboys may have one thing going for them this week—Jerry Jones may be distracted enough by the sexual assault allegations that he isn’t focused on his general manager duties. But I think the Titans can still take care of business here, and getting paid even money makes it even sweeter.

$500 – Houston at Oakland: Over 39.5 (-110) – We’ll see how my bet the opposite works this year … if you’ve ever read our bets before (and judging by our stats, you haven’t), I often find games that have no business going over a low number (usually due to the ineptitude of both teams offenses), and logically bet the over. It worked for me well in Vegas once, so why not in fake Vegas?

$300 – Upset of the Week: St. Louis (+220) at Tampa Bay– That sound you heard was me rolling off the Bucs bandwagon with a loud thud. Not sure what I was doing trusting a team that can design uniforms that ugly AND pay Josh McCown starter money. Yeah, the Rams looked brutal in week one. But I don’t think Jeff Fisher and that defensive front seven will let it happen again.

For straight up week two picks, click here.