Two members of the St. Louis Rams’ Greatest Show on Turf era survived the cut down from 26
Courtesy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame
semifinalists to 15 finalists eligible for this year’s class of the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Kurt Warner and Orlando Pace along with San Diego LB Junior Seau are first-time eligible candidates who advance to the next round of votes.
They join 12 more modern-era candidates who will be voted on during the weekend of the Super Bowl.
The 12 are:
- RB Jerome Bettis
- LB Kevin Greene
- DE/LB Charles Haley
- WR Marvin Harrison
- G Will Shields
- K Morten Andersen
- WR Tim Brown
- RB Terrell Davis
- S John Lynch
- Coach Tony Dungy
- Coach Don Coryell
- Coach Jimmy Johnson
The 26 semifinalists came from a list of 113 nominees. The 15 finalists will be voted on during Super Bowl weekend. Voters will first reduce the class to 10 and then five.
The final class could be as large as eight. The final five, along with senior candidate Mick Tingelhoff and contributors Bill Polian and Ron Wolf, will receive yes or no votes. They need 80 percent yeses to earn enshrinement.
We took a guess several months ago on who we thought would be inducted. So far our final five modern era candidates are all still alive.
The 11 semifinalists who were eliminated in the cut down were: WRs Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt, RBs Roger Craig and Edgerrin James, OL Joe Jacoby, Mike Kenn and Kevin Mawae, LB Karl Mecklenburg, CB Ty Law and S Steve Atwater and Darren Woodson.
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good list, no real surprises but nice to see Jimmy Johnson make final 15 for first time. But still sticking with my prediction of Seau, Shields, Haley, Harrison and Bettis (while also seeing good chance for Warner, Pace or Dungy)
It was also announced on the NFL Network show last night that the finalists would be revealed LIVE at the NFL Awards show which starts at 9pm on Sat Jan 31st. Posters here may recall that last year that show was tape delayed and thus even though it did not air until 8 (or 9?)p, the results came out between 6-630p during the taping. If they truly mean “LIVE” then this year look for the results to come out anytime soon after 9pm.
im the same way with paul i think it will be real close between shields and pace
I agree, either way the OL candidate list is pretty light for the next few election years so both are getting in soon if not this year. And with OL already represented by the senior candidate, I do not think given the deep quality pool of finalists, and that several have been on the ballot and waiting for four or more years (Haley, Brown, Bettis) that both Pace and Shields will be elected this year.
My main concern is Tingelhoff’s election.
I agree with this. Should have been in a long, long time ago.
I have no concern for Tingelhoff’s election as in recent years the HOF voters have supported the senior candidate nominations for election and I see no reason, given that his name has been discussed before as a strong and supported potential senior candidate, that he would not get elected (and yes it should have happened years ago).
It will be interesting to see how the HOF voters look at two contributor candidates with this new selection process and whether the potential increase to 8 elected may come at the expense of a contributor or modern slot if voters would like to keep the total to just 7.
I’d think both Polian and Wolf would be elected. It’d be an otherwise bad idea in the first year of the Contributor section.
With only Brett Favre looking like a 1st ballot lock in 2016 I’d say we’ll see 9 of these names get elected by next year.
very possible
Thoughts:
-surprised to see Davis, Coryell, and Johnson get this far.
-surprised Zach Thomas can”t even reach semifinal status.
–Davis getting this far likely means Roger Craig won”t in future.
-surprised more 1st time eligibles didn’t get this far: none of James, Law, Holt, Bruce, or Mawae did.
I think the return of a strong set of final 10 from 2014 left little room for many new additions including other 1st time eligible players. With several candidates returning who have been finalist for 3 or more years HOF voters are positioning those players to be elected. Look for 2015 and 2016 to clear a backlog if those candidates then space will open up for others.
Zach Thomas deserves to be a HOFer. He will have to wait because many deserve it as well who are not in who have waited longer.
Think of this: (years as a finalist) Charles Haley(6), Tim Brown(6), Jerome Bettis(5), Kevin Greene(4), Will Shields(4). All have great shots at getting in this or next year. That will free up spots for Zach to be noticed more. HOF is a numbers game. Once Terrell Owens, Randy Moss, Tony Gonzalez, and others get in Zach will get in sooner rather than later. I would say he is in next 7-8 years.
I wish they would put the coach’s in with contributors. They are going to end up getting back logged as well and will continue to take up spots that should have gone to Isaac Bruce, Ty Law and Roger Craig.
Besides the possibility of Payton Manning (which we may not know about for months) have there been any other big name post 2014 season retirements of potential first ballot HOFers for 2020? Others who may retire: Charles Woodson? Troy Polamalu? Antonio Gates? Dwight Freeney ? Jared Allen? Of course may be others before the 2015 season starts.
I think Terrell Davis making the final 15 was a surprise. I agree with bachslunch that it likely signals the end of any chance Roger Craig has at getting in as a modern era candidate.
I figured Jimmy Johnson wouldn’t take long to make the final 15. He has the credentials, but just needed to get past that first cut. I agree though that 3 coaches making the final 15 is a bit much. It just makes the decision to exclude them from the contributor category all the more puzzling. There are actually more non-players taking up finalist spots than last year.
The only guy that I am surprised not to see on the finalist list is Kevin Mawae. I didn’t think he had a chance to get in this year, but he is much more qualified than at least half the guys that missed the cut to 15.
I will probably stand firm with my original guess of Seau, Greene, Haley, Harrison and Shields going in. A coach could be a real wildcard here though. Bettis and Pace would not be surprises either.
I really just don’t want to see Warner get in right away. Even if next year is a light year, I just really don’t want to see a QB with so many red flags get pushed in immediately when this is such a strong finalist list. I know his peak was great, but come on. He was an average or below average QB for longer than he was elite. I don’t have a problem with him getting in at some point, but he is hardly as worthy as the select group of players that have gotten in on the first-ballot.
BSLO I think many of the points you make regarding Warner will also be held by enough voters that he will not get in this year. I am just not sure that both Greene and Haley get in the same year given that they are similar type positions and the only reason I think Haley has an edge is that he has been the final 10 the last two years and of those not elected in 2014 he seemed to get most of the post election comments. Not sure Greene at this stage as enough voter or public support or interest to get elected, yet.
And I agree that it is also possible the 3 coaches will divide votes making it harder for any of them to advance further and get elected as I now can see some voters, perhaps even Dungy supporters, swayed by J Johnson now on the ballot as well. Pace could get in but the presence of Shields (and his long time on the finalist list) plus Tingelhoff may make it hard for three OL to get in, especially given the often stated high quality of this finalist list, and for me Pace is slightly lower then the other recently elected OT from that era (either way Pace will not have to wait long for election)
My guess for who will be elected:
1. Tinglehoff
2. Polian
3. Seau
4. Tim Brown
5. Charles Haley
6. Orlando Pace
7. Jerome Bettis
That is not to be confused with what I would want or do. I would replace Pace with Shields and I would replace Bettis with Jimmy Johnson
Since Harrison made the final 10 last year and Brown did not, I wonder what is your reasoning for thinking Brown would jump into the final 10 for the first time and then elected over Harrison?
And why Polian but not Wolf, seems like with contributors in a separate group and process for the first time and both nominated by the HOF voters subcommittee on contributors, why would the full HOF voting panel choose only one and Polian over Wolf? I see both as deserving and very similar cases and not hearing any concerns raised about either.
Unless your thinking is that the HOF voters would resist increasing the total number of elected from 7 to 8?
Just wondering…….
You are exactly right on my reasoning for why I don’t think two contributors get into the HOF. I don’t believe they will put 8 people into the Hall at one time, but I could easily be wrong on that.
I remember reading last year that there was quite a bit of dissension with Harrison making it as far as he did and some voters saying that he would never get their vote base on events that happened after he retired. If that is the case he may find the Mike Piazza, Jaff Bagwell treatment for awhile.
It will be interesting to see if someone (contributor or modern) pays the price by not being elected if enough HOF voters hold the line at 7 total. What is increasing about this process is that the senior and contributor candidates are voted on first and separate from the modern candidates. The senior candidate is discussed, voted on and needs 80% of voters, but the voters are not informed of that election outcome. The two contributors will be discussed and voted on, again each needing 80% and the voters are not informed of that vote outcome. So before them even discussing and going through the process of elimination voting and final rounds on the 15 modern, anywhere between 0-3 people may have been elected – and the voters will not know that number. Thus may be hard for the voters to plan to elect a set number, including avoiding electing 8.
Well Harrison in his first year on the ballot, made not only made the final 15 but advanced into the final 10, so that dissension must not have been too deep (and did not stop him in 2014 for going further then Tim Brown). There may have been some off the field issue that impacted his ability to get to the next step into the final five elected, but also just as likely that the rarity of WRs as 1st time eligible elections and Reed as a finalist (for the 8 time) were more significant barriers to the voters. And frankly I do not recall any HOF voters saying publicly that he would never get their vote based on off field events (very few of the HOF voters publicly discuss the election process or their votes as the HOF Board asks them not to). Even Peter King from SI, who is perhaps one of the most well known and nationally read HOF voters, tends to keep his comments about HOF voting, including the process, who he voted for, and discussions from the room and with other HOF voters, very general, usually just who he thinks stands the best base, and very little about HOF voting outcomes and comments from voters. I think his career numbers are pretty hard to avoid for very long. Personally I have a real issue with any HOF voter using post career off the field issues to not elect a player as the guidelines they are provided with clearly state focus is on career accomplishments on the field.
What are the chances Faneca is first ballot next year?
I’d say slim to none. Not so much that faneca wouldn’t be deserving. But the likelihood is either Pace or Shields will still be in the mix too. And i’d put both of those guys in first. Just my relatively unresearched top of mind opinion tho.
A 6/9/2000s profile is very impressive, though. I think he may make it. Eventually for sure.
Oh, no question. He doesn’t wait long. I think after shields and pace, he’s the next most compelling OL. Saw someone earlier mention Kevin Mawae – i’d have to study, but I like both those guys a lot. I’d say Faneca no later than 18, maybe 17. Just a guess without doing much specific reading.
Shields and Pace are almost certain to both be elected by 2016. Voters will then turn their attention a year later to Faneca, Mawae and Hutchinson. All 3 are deserving.
HOF voters have never been kind to C and OG so although all three may be deserving, it may take a while for them to elected. Shields is a 7/12 profile and has been a finalist last 3 years and still not elected. While on the ballot several other equal or more qualified candidates from other positions and coaches will also be on the ballot so they may go ignored by the voters.
Shields was also up against Roaf, Ogden, Larry Allen and Walter Jones for the OL vote the last 3 years. I predict Shields will get the nod this time with Pace going in next year with Kurt Warner.
No question about it, BoKnows. As much as I don’t think Shields should have had to wait this long, I understand completely why he has. That said, as far as modern era candidates who are multi-time finalists, he’s the guy I’m pulling for this year over any other.
Well by 2018 Faneca, Mawae and Hutchinson could all still be on the ballot together, and we know with recent elections of pass rushing DL/LB, WR and OL that a logjam of candidates with similar profiles and at the same position can present challenges with the voters to sort them out. And by 2018 there will be a rich collection of candidates at other positions. Yes Shields was up against some pretty good OL candidates but history also shows that voters often take their time in electing most OG and C. So it is not easy to predict that once Shield and Pace are off the ballot after 2016 that the path will clearly open for election for other OL, likely will take a while for all three to get in.
I am also supportive, hopeful and feel pretty good about Shields chances this year, and along with Haley, deserve to get elected after being so close yet not elected in recent years – I tend to pull for these type of candidates, those clearly deserving but passed over year after year.
People on the NFL Facebook Page think Marshawn Lynch is HOF bound. Thoughts everyone?
If the Seahawks win again and Lynch has a great game then he’ll certainly be worthy of serious consideration. What about Pete Carroll? Long term radar you’d have to think about Richard Sherman, Earl Thomas and Russell Wilson but they’re all still a long way off and a lot can change. Lynch on the other hand is closer to retirement. He might also break the record for the shortest speech.
I think there is at least a small percent chance Lynch would become the first player ever that I am aware of to turn down induction to the Hall so he wouldn’t have to make a speech.
Interesting dude, he is.
Marshawn needs another 2-3 years of 1k or more. There are so many 10k backs. I just look at his career and Shaun Alexander’s , I am more for Alexander.
Russell Wilson is on the right path for HOF. He is smart with the ball and his passer rating is incredible. He is no game manager with having the 2nd most TDs in first 2 seasons, only behind Dan Marino.
I am not sure that Marshawn will play long enough to build stronger career and season numbers including yards, TDs, SB wins, all pro and pro bowls, as right now his case is not that strong. Even if he has a great SB, with major numbers, perhaps the game MVP, I still not sure that he would merit serious HOF consideration. He may not even be with Seattle next year or in the league within the next few years.
And as mentioned, and we have discussed here before, in this era 10,000 yards rushing is no longer the standard for HOF RBs and many from this post 2000 era are not getting in based on that standard alone. From the 2000s decade it appears only LT has a direct and quick path to the HOF, as E James (the other RB from the 2000s decade team) did not even make the final 15 this year, although I suspect in the coming years he will get some consideration. Not so sure if anyone else from RB position from last 15 years is a solid lock for HOF.
Russell Wilson may be a very interesting case especially if he can QB back to back SB teams. At this point some are comparing his current HOF chances with E Manning as both have limited pro bowls and no all pro, and their career and seasons numbers are pretty average (Wilson’s are better, yet they have the SBs. I guess it really depends on how much wins the Seahawks compile and whether his season numbers build to the level of among the top QBs in the league. Once Brady, P Manning, Rivers, Romo and Bees leave the league (all likely to do so within the next 3-4 years), Wilson could be in a position to elevate to the top tier of QBs with Luck, but he is going to need to have larger and more consistent passing stats to do so.
But if the Seahawks win the SB and have continued success to the point of early claim on team of the 2010s decade, some of their players and coach will have serious HOF chances.
i think this election will set up the next several what do you guys think
It should if guys that should get in, actually get voted in. There seems to be guys like Will Shields, Charles Haley and Tom Brown that have to wait a little longer than they should just to get in. It is keeping guys like Darren Woodson, Steve Atwater and Zach Thomas from getting the consideration that they should. Especially if three coaches are up for consideration in the final 15, year in and year out.
I do think with a relatively “weaker” class of 1st year eligibles, that this year will be an election with a great chance to “clean the slate” of candidates who have been in the final 15, and have been subject to the debates and discussion in the room for the last few years. As they get discussed year after year and few new candidates ares added, voters have a tendency at certain points in election years to move forward the deserving but delayed candidates. I think Shields and Haley are the first tier in that group (they made final 10 last year and in previous years, so clearly there is support among voters for them). Harrison, Greene and Bettis, are next with advantage to Harrison since he made final 10 in 2014 as 1st year eligible. Harrison may end up blocking Brown and his wait may continued for another year or two as I do not sense a huge upswell among voters and the public to get him elected ASAP (at least not yet).
Tom Brady will play more than 4 years as in after the 2018 season. He is not hurt and sure isn’t declining. That being said, Eli has the numbers and with 2 SB MVPs; he will get in. It will take him a long time. His TD-int ratio compared to his peers is not on par. Wilson is no scrub. He is a better runner than Vick. Mike in prime was incredible at running but he got hurt a lot because he took too many hits that Wilson avoids. With Peyton , Brees, and others retiring soon, Wilson will have plenty of Pro Bowls; he doesn’t need APs to call a season a quality one either. I would say his first 3 seasons are on par with most HOF/Future HOF QBs. 6.1 yards per rush for career with his passing ability is absurd. Oh and he is undefeated vs SB winning QBs.
At his age it is really year by year as health, arm strength and other physical issues can pop up at any time, no assurances how much longer Brady plays but that the end is getting closer. Eli makes for an interesting case as his season and career numbers are not that great, but the two SB wins/MVPs will carry weight with many voters, he could be in for wait for election I suspect. For any player, especially QBs, lack of all pro selections (as one of the top 2 QBs in a season) can be a negative factor, it can be overcome with great season and career numbers plus SBs. Given of what I have experienced following the NFL for over 30 years and HOF elections pretty closely for over a decade, makes me very cautious with players having early career success as it all to often is not sustained to the HOF level long enough in a career to result in a clean path to the HOF. More often then not many such players never end up with HOF quality careers. I think Wilson is off to a great start and has strong potential to end up as a HOFer, but one never knows what the future may hold in terms of production, success and health.
One thing that will be really interesting to see in the NFL over the next few years will be the changing of the guard at QB. I’m not sure how often this gets mentioned by the media, but it’s becoming painfully obvious that the majority of the best QB’s in the league will be entering at least their 10th NFL season next year: Peyton, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Romo, Eli, Roethlisberger, hell even Carson Palmer before he got injured. Matt Ryan and Joe Flacco will be 30 at the start of next season as well.
Maybe it’s just me, but I don’t ever remember there being this much of a sense that the current QB population is not going to replace itself when the best players retire shortly. Aside from Luck and Wilson, there haven’t been any young QB’s that have shown they have elite stuff in them. If Wilson keeps things up, he could make a ton of Pro Bowls. You could make a case for Stafford or Newton, but they are really only at upper end of the mid-pack at this point.
It will be interesting to see the reaction Romo, Eli, Rivers, and Roethlisberger get from voters. Their careers aren’t over but they strike me as guys who will spend more than a couple of years on the ballot being debated.
Sort of reminds me of the early 1980s with the end of the 70s decade top QBs and the start of the rise of the next generation with Montana, Elway and Marino. Or late 1990s/early 2000s with the emergence of Manning, Brady and others. It may appear right now that a drop off is going to occur in the next few years, but the next group of top tier of QBs is always right around the corner and Luck and Wilson may be the start. Very possible another 3-4 top tier QBs have yet to emerge from current ones or next few drafts could bring them in. suspect by 2020 the league again will have a top tier of 6-7 QBs as that is usually how it develops.
Is Marshawn Lynch bound for HOF?
http://www.nfl.com/news/story/0ap3000000462180/article/marshawn-lynch-bound-for-hall-of-fame-with-super-bowl-win
is it possible that shields and pace cancel each other out in the hall of fame voting
if that happens heres my class
Haley Harrison Seau Warner Bettis Tingelhoff Polian Wolf
what do you guys think also who are the top senior and contribuitiors nominees for 2016 I know its early just wanted to get the ball rolling
Shields has been a finalist for the last few years and made it into the top 10 last year. So voters are familiar with him and enough discussion, interest and support to get one stop from election. I am not sure how voters will view Pace and whether many see him as a 1st ballot HOFer, enough so to have him jump ahead of Shields. I think Pace is a little below the recent HOF OT and predicting although he makes final, 10 Shields will be the one elected this year.
Also I think there will enough division among the HOF voters on the middle low quality years in Warner’s career to keep him out this year as will be sufficient cause for HOF voters to not view him as 1st ballot HOFer.
Since we know very little about the stages of voting and results for the seniors (only the finalists are selected), we even have to guess as to the 15 semi-finalists, plus the voting members of that committee change each year, so trends and future possibilities are hard to predict. But names that seem to come up in recent years include Howley, Kramer, Curtis, Robinson, Harris, Meador and Gradishar. For 2016 there will be two senior candidates improving the odds for those remaining in the seniors pool.
A little late to the discussion, but Seattle might end up being a lot more like the Packers, Steelers dynasties than the 49ers, Cowboys dynasties. While it is way, way too early to predict anything, it is interesting to hypothesize. With that caveat, it is possible that these Seahawks could have 8 or more hall of famers. Assuming they win on Sunday and play good to great football for the next 5-10 years, you are looking at Wilson, Sherman, and Earl Thomas as first ballot type players. Right behind them could be Cam Chancellor (who is finally getting recognized as the leader of the defense) and Bobby Wagner (who was an all pro in year 3 while only playing 11 games). Assuming continued growth, K.J. Wright could also rise to a hall of fame level. To add to these guys’ credentials, all of the above are 26 years old or younger! Each has a chance for 5-7 more years and multi-pro bowls and all pros, especially if they stay together (most are signed long term or will be in the case of Wilson). Then, as a multi-Super Bowl winning head coach (not to mention multiple National Championships), Pete Carroll would have a very interesting and compelling Hall of Fame case. Finally, there is Lynch. I think he has a compelling case already. He has two of the most amazing runs of his generation (which are also eerily similar). Future running backs are not going to be measured by yards, the game is simply changing. Instead, it is likely that they will be measured by highlight plays (i.e., can you write the history of the league without them stuff). Lynch will excel in that category. That would make 8 hall of famers. As we know, hall of famers beget more hall of famers. As a result, if Seattle gets to 8, there is a chance that guys like Okung and Unger start getting more consideration. Again, it is way too early to say any of this is a certainty, and Sunday will go a long way to determining these guys’ places in history. However, we should already recognize this Seahawks team as one of the most talented teams we have seen in a long time (perhaps 40 years).
Health and level of HOF performance will tell with the test of time for those Seahawks. I can recall with the 49ers of the 80s, Cowboys of the 90s, and Patriots of the 00s, that during their SB seasons, especially after 2+ SB wins, plenty of talk about HOFers, but the reality for all those teams is that some of those players did not sustain quality seasons long enough to merit HOF consideration (as we are already starting to see with the 2000s Patriots not advancing far in the process to date). No doubt some Seahawks will but I am willing to bet that they end up with closer to perhaps 3-5 total HOFers and not 8 as some players will simply not keep up the quality seasons long enough. With the eventual election of Haley and JJ (both 2015 finalists) Cowboys of 90s will end up with 6 (and perhaps a few more eventually), which is pretty good and could be better then the 80s 49ers and 2000s Patriots end up with. With so many 60s Packers and 70s in the HOF (of course they both won more NFL championships/SBs than the other teams I mentioned), I think the HOF voters, due to some blacklash over electing too many from those two teams, will be careful in the future when considering SB players beyond the superstars from SB teams.
Reminder that results of 2015 HOF election will be announced officially during the NFL Honors show on CBS Saturday starting at 9pm EST Possible word of “unofficial” results may hit blogs or twitter, including on here, before show from other sources. The HOF voters will only know which 5 modern players made the final round, but not if they received required 80% during last round of voting nor will voters know if senior and contributor candidates have been elected as HOF does not inform the voters of any of the final vote results once they are concluded. And unlike 2014 when the NFL Honors show was tape delayed and results came out a few hours before show aired, may not be the case this year if show is truly live.
sorry, correct network is NBC
It’s far too early to say about any of the current Seahawks re the HoF. At present, the best cases would be for Earl Thomas (3/4/10s?) and Richard Sherman (3/2/10s?). Guys like Bobby Wagner (1/1) and Russell Okung (0/1) are barely along. And I don’t see that HoF voters have changed how they view RBs, giving weight to career rush yards except for monster-peak short-career guys whose careers ended via injury (Sayers, Campbell, possibly T. Davis). I don’t think Marshawn Lynch has much more shot than Shaun Alexander, Clinton Portis, Priest Holmes, or Tiki Barber unless he gets above 12,000 career yards. Russell Wilson will need to win another SB and have numbers akin to a present-day version of Bob Griese or win 3-4 SBs and have a full length good career — which might well happen, of course.
I think Wilson is a really interesting case. He certainly gives himself a great shot with a win this weekend. But as cases like Jim Plunkett show, two Super Bowl wins alone is not enough to get to the HOF – nor should it be.
What I think is going to be interesting about Wilson is how his game evolves if/when the time comes that the team doesn’t have such a strong defense and run game. Get him a WR1 to complement the solid-but-not-spectacular guys he has catching passes right now and I think his game could take off even more, which would allow him to continue making his case strong beyond the two championships.
Other than Favre who is eligible next year
for 2016 besides Favre: Terrell Owens, Darren Sharper, Alan Faneca. Compared to recent years, relatively weak class.
thanks paul 2016 could be a year we could clear the backlog
I mentioned earlier in this thread that with only Favre looking like a 1st ballot lock for 2016 that we will likely see 9 of this year’s 15 modern era finalists gain election by next year. Haley, Greene, Harrison, Brown, Shields, Pace, Seau, Bettis, Warner and Favre are my prediction over the next two classes in the next 52 1/2 weeks. That will clear the backlog and allow some new names to emerge and fresh Top 15 discussion from 2017 onwards.
I agree looks like 2015 and 2016 could really clear out the ballot. Good because it will start getting full again in 2017 and 2018:
2017 – Jason Taylor, Brian Dawkins, Hines Ward, LaDainian Tomlinson.
2018 – Ray Lewis, Randy Moss, Brian Urlacher, Ronde Barber, Steve Hutchinson
Also would not be surprised in 2015 and/or 2016 to see HOF voters only elect 4 modern candidates, which may push one or two 2015 finalists into the candidate pool for 2017 and beyond.
But sticking with my long standing prediction for 2015 of Bettis, Haley, Harrison, Seau, and Shields. I just do not think HOF voters will fill 2015 class with other 1st time candidates (Pace and Warner) although I will admit Pace has a chance and would replace Bettis on my list. I think it is time for Haley and Shields and do not see movement on any other new additions to the 2015 finalists lists nor push yet for Brown or Greene.
I almost completely agree with Boknows34, although I would probably replace Warner with a coach. Warner probably isn’t getting in on the 1st ballot, and I could see him missing out next year with Favre on the ballot. I have to believe with 3 coaches on the finalist list that one gets in over the next two years. In any event, they should clean the slate pretty nicely over the next two years.
I personally don’t think 2017 looks that much better than 2016. Although Owens and Faneca likely aren’t going to get in immediately, I’d be surprised if they weren’t finalists right off the bat. Sharper is a different story. His case will really test the stance that only on-field criteria should be considered when voting.
I would guess that 2017 also has only one first-ballot inductee…LT. Taylor was a great player, and he might squeak in given the lack of competition at his position, but I’d guess he has a 2-4 year wait. Dawkins really should be an immediate finalist, as he was in my opinion a superior player to John Lynch. However, as has been noted by other posters on this site, the hall has historically been weird when it comes to safeties. Ward shouldn’t be any more than a semi-finalist in his 1st year.
2018 on the other hand will be stacked. Lewis is a guarantee as a first-ballot inductee, Moss is pretty close to a lock, and Urlacher should get in within 2-3 years. Barber is a tougher call, but he’s likely to immediately be the best CB up for voting once he becomes eligible. I see him having a wait similar to Aeneas Williams. Hutchinson’s wait will all depend on how committed the voters are to inducting linemen over the next 3 years. My guess is they will induct one a year, with Shields, Pace and Faneca getting in. That would only realistically put Kevin Mawae up against him as serious competition. It would be a toss up between those two, but I’d probably give Mawae the edge due to the longer wait (similar to Shields over Pace this year).
If you couple this trend with Joe Jacoby and Mike Kenn becoming ineligible and a lack of good OL candidates coming after Hutchinson, we could be in for a clean slate at that position similar to what is happening with pass rushers right now.
The notion that strictly on the field performance is all that matters is one that I don’t agree with. Why are we doubting Owens waits? It’s the reputation he had. If only on the field stuff counted, Tyrer would’ve been elected by now. Despite the fact I have corresponded with members of the Senior Committee who have told me in the past Tyrer was considered, it’s no secret why he’s excluded. I don’t condone what he did at the end of his life, but his resume tells me he should be in. If it wasn’t for a certain controversy Marvin Harrison was linked to, I think he’d be in already.
The only way Sharper gets in is if he’s acquitted of the accusations he’s facing. Regardless of what someone makes of Sharper, he does have a case, but there would be fury, in my opinion, if he is convicted and elected.
Less than 48 hours to go. My prediction matches Paul’s with Wolf, Polian and Tingelhoff rounding out a Class of 8, the largest in HOF history.
We should get a big clue to the strongest candidates for 2016 with Fave when we see who finished in the 6-10 bracket from the first cut.
There’s no reason to think Tingelhoff actually would be denied, right?
At times Owen’s attitude and performance did impact his play on the field and that of his team. So I see fine if voters decide not to elect him in year one on the ballot, he is a HOFer and will get in but I understand voters wishing to take into account how he as a player did at times create issues that impacted the team on the field.
Harrison was on the ballot for the 1st time in 2014 and made the final 10 and the last WR to get in on the first ballot was Rice, many outstanding and equal or more deserving WRs then Harrison were not elected in their first year, largely because of the challenge HOF voters are finding with the inflated WRs since the 1990s and how to value and compare such performances. I have no doubt that Harrison will get in, perhaps as soon as this year.
The fact that Atwater and Lynch have not made much progress, and other safeties from all decade teams of the 80s and 90s have yet to be elected, shows issues the voters continue to have with the position and the same impact will hurt Sharper, again regardless of the off the field issues. Either way he will not be elected as a 1st time eligible player and may take a few years.
Tyrer is one of many AFL players who simply did not get serious consideration by HOFer once he first became eligible in the 1970s and once he fell into the seniors pool it is very hard (especially when there was only one senior slot a year) to get out. Robinson is another AFL player in the same situation. Once in the senior pool with so many other deserving candidates it is easy to overlook or turn a blind eye to a player for any reason and focus on other players who have equal or even better cases based on their playing career only.
Bottom line is that it is possible off the field issues come into play, but voting and election history also shows that for many of these players on the field performance and numbers questions are also significant red flags for many voters. I once read in regards to HOF voting is that the process results in looking for reasons not to select a player rather then advocate to elect him and ease to simply move on and consider a player with the least questions as to their playing excellence.
From Peter King on MMQB today…
“Gut feelings … Tingelhoff, Wolf and Polian, who need 80 percent of the vote from the 46 voters, will make it … Seau and Pace will make it … Marvin Harrison, Haley and Will Shields round out the five-man Class of 2015 … Best debates: Kurt Warner, Tony Dungy, Terrell Davis. ”
(and I know may people do not like King but he is one of the few HOF voters who discusses the HOF voting regularly, and BTW in the past he has often mentioned that his gut feelings on who gets elected are often wrong, so take it as it is)
The problem with Moss and Owens is that they both were often more trouble than they were worth. Hall of Fame players typically don’t get pushed out of town multiple times in the primes of their careers. And this is not about off the field issues like domestic violence, arrests, etc. Their teams made the decision that their play was selfish and self-absorbed, which clearly impacted the teams’ performances. As I have said before on this site, they both challenge the classic mold of what a hall of fame player should be. Specifically, Moss has the problem that he unquestionably quit on the Vikings and Raiders at the end of his stays. Voters could easily decide that Moss simply wasted his talent and failed to become the player he could have been. Not necessarily fair. No one says that a HOF has to leave everything on the field. If Moss was good enough to be a HOF trying only 75% of his career, so be it. But, it is a challenge. While no one could ever say that Owens failed to maximize his talent (i.e., his epic performance in the Super Bowl), he was a QB and Coach killer. It could be said that his teams failed to win more because of his behavior. Who knows if he stole Philly’s chance at a Super Bowl in his second year there? It is simply so hard to correctly value these guys. Who would you rather have: Moss and Owens or Hines Ward and Tory Holt? These are the type of difficult questions that the voters will have to resolve. I do not envy them.
As for this year, my prediction is: Seau, Harrison, Pace, Shields, and Dungy. Polian, Wolf, and Tinglehoff all elected as well.
My guess is that Seau casts a disproportionate shadow over the other defenders, and as a result, they clean up some recent alleged “snubs” on offense and the coaching ranks.
Thinking you are heavy on offense while HOF voters talk about and are electing more defense
Certainly possible Paul, but my list is very similar to the 2013 class: a defender (Seau in for Sapp), two lineman (Shields, Pace for Ogden, Allen), a wide receiver (Harrison for Carter) and a coach (Dungy for Parcells). Admittedly that year both seniors (Culp and Robinson) were defenders and this year the senior is an offensive lineman (Tingelhoff), but I’ve never really thought the seniors impact the selection of the modern candidates. The issue is whether or not Haley or Greene build enough support to supplant someone else. In my mind, any comparison to Seau is going to hurt Greene and Haley. Both are classic borderline guys. The hall will not be harmed by their election, but their omission would not be glaring either. Just seems like the year to let Seau’s greatness take center stage. Could always be wrong.
Nothing wrong with Seau and Haley in the same class as they were different types of players plus Haley spent a good portion of his career at DE instead of LB. Haley made final ten each of the last two years so he is close and I see no reason why adding Seau makes his path any harder this year. Not so sure voters put in three OL this year, Shields or Pace but likely not both. A player who was a key defender (opposing teams had to game plan for him) for five SB teams in Haley, and a top ten career sacker in Greene are not classic borderline HOFers, they both were in the final ten in 2014 so if not this year then next they are both getting in. Dugy has yet to crack into the final ten and now with JJ in the mix as a coach I wonder whether his path actually got harder as voters may split between the two of them – that could take a few more years to sort out. Plus wondering now with two contributors whether some HOF voters may draw the line at taking a modern slot away from a player to give to a coach?
It’s the big day. Please elect Tingelhoff.
Tingelhoff has a lot of support from teammates and opponents: https://www.zoneblitz.com/2015/01/31/opponent-teammate-pull-tingelhoffs-hof-enshrinement/
I would be surprised to see a coach elected today. With two contributors the voters may stay away from another non-player.
Voted ended a few hours ago still no unofficial news out in results
First rumor: Bettis is in
Next rumor: Harrison and Dungy not in
News starting to slip out: wolf is in
Show is being taped now one hour before showing so watch HOF voting results about to get out
Haley in
Pace in
Confirmed final 5: Haley shields brown Seau Bettis
Class of 2015 Haley brown shields Bettis Seau mike T Bill P Wolf
Just like last year I got 4/5 moderns Harrison replaced by brown clearly an election to advance players on the ballot over last few years in brown Haley Bettis and shields and creates wide open 2016 field
I think I might have been the only one on this site that picked Tim Brown. I had everyone except I thought pace might get in over Shields but I am very happy to see Shields get elected. Certainly makes next year more of a crapshoot after Favre.
You’d think maybe Pace is elected over Faneca, but Shields had to wait for Allen and Ogden. There’s no telling. have never been much of a Haley supporter, but figured it was inevitable.
I’m just happy Tingelhoff got his turn. RIP Junior Seau.
I got 4/5 for the Modern Era and 7/8 in total. My only miss was Harrison instead of Brown so came close to a full house as I expected a WR to be among the electees. Good day for Notre Dame as well with Bettis and Brown going in together. Brown also joins an exclusive club of Heisman HOFers that includes Barry Sanders, Marcus Allen, Tony Dorsett, Earl Campbell, OJ Simpson, Roger Staubach, Paul Hornung and Doak Walker.
Early prediction for 2016:
Favre
Pace
Warner
Greene
Harrison
2 Seniors
1 Contributor