The late Junior Seau highlights the 2015 Pro Football Hall of Fame class.
Courtesy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame
The Charger and Patriots great is the lone first-year eligible enshrinee. He’ll be joined by seven others, including senior candidate Mick Tingelhoff and two contributors in the first year that category has existed: Ron Wolf and Bill Polian, both of whom built multi championship teams.
Other enshrinees will include: Jerome Bettis, Tim Brown, Will Shields and Charles Haley.
The selections mean that despite having four semifinalists, the Greatest Show on Turf – including first timers Kurt Warner and Orlando Pace – were left out of the final selection. Three coaches – Jimmy Johnson, Tony Dungy and Don Coryell – were also not selected.
Marvin Harrison was another notable candidate not selected. Harrison, Pace, Warner, Tony Dungy and Kevin Greene were the final five modern era candidates eliminated from consideration by Hall voters.
Polian and Wolf were announced as contributor candidates in October, reportedly selected from a class of 11 under consideration. Tingelhoff’s candidacy was announced in August. In 2016, there will be two senior candidates and one slot reserved for a contributor, under rules the Pro Football Hall of Fame voters altered for use the first time this year.
There initially were 113 modern era candidates that were winnowed down to 26 and then 15. The final 15 were narrowed on Saturday to 10 and then the group of five, who ultimately had to receive 80 percent yeses in an up or down vote in order to be enshrined.
So, how did we do predicting the class? Tony got four of five modern-era candidates, missing only on Tim Brown – he picked Marvin Harrison. I hit three of five. I also missed on Brown vs Harrison. I also picked John Lynch, which admittedly was not a great pick based on how safeties have fared in recent years. But I didn’t think Bettis was going top get in this season – I thought he would have to wait until 2016.
But Bettis is the only one I have any disagreement with and even that is a minor complaint. I think Bettis is a fine Hall of Fame candidate – I just liked a few of the other guys better, including Harrison, Pace, probably Warner, etc.
We’ll take a stab at predicting 2016 over the next couple days and publish that soon. We’ve added a poll to see what people generally think about this class. Please vote – and if you disagree substantially with the inductees, tell us who you’d have put in instead.
The enshrinement will be held in August.
This year's Hall of Fame class is:
- Solid, voters got it mostly right, but missed on a couple guys. (73%, 8 Votes)
- Great, one of the best ever! (27%, 3 Votes)
- Ok, I guess a couple of these guys were worthy of the Hall. (0%, 0 Votes)
- Terrible - what were the voters thinking? (0%, 0 Votes)
Total Voters: 11
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Good solid class great to see players with long waits on ballot to get in: Haley shields brown bettis
Harrison being denied again makes me wonder if the voters are hesitant on off the field stuff.
There’s no need to worry any longer about the Tingelhoff injustice. It’s just unfortunate the Senior candidates are being cut every other year. I’ve called for Robinson and Wistert for years now. Hopefully next year.
Apparently there’s an uproar over Bettis getting elected. It seems like there’s one of those every year.
As to Harrison I think it was more a case of Brown having served his time on the ballot and after Carter and Reed he deserved to be next and I have no doubt as a member of the final ten two years in a row 2016 will be his year
When deserving candidates like Harrison Pace and Warner do not get in because of room for only five there is always going be people attacking some players who do end up in but for me the 6th all time career rushers deserves his selection
So that would mean Pace gets the nod over Faneca? Maybe both get in next year. Let’s just ask which four get in next year, as Favre is a foregone conclusion.
I was disappointed Mawae didn’t get more love this year.
Yes I would think Pace over Faneca next year as guards are not often 1st year selections
early thoughts about 2016: Favre Pace Harrison Greene Dungy
If, however, a guard is deserving in his first year, Faneca has a terrific resume.
Those aren’t bad predictions. I’m thinking Dungy and Johnson canceled each other out this year.
Also, Morten Andersen should might as wait until he’s sent to the Senior pool. Ray Guy deserved election. The voters agreed. The twist is Guy was voted on separately. Now, if Andersen was elected as a modern era candidate, that’d be huge. Then again, wasn’t Stenerud modern era?
I do wonder if Haley helps Greene.
For 2nd year in a row Dungy made final 10, JJ did not, I think bigger issue was two contributors only one next year but clearly voters still see Dungy as next coach if not next then soon
Shields as guard was also very qualified but he waited Pace was in final ten so already in line for election not sure faneca changes that in 2016
Yes Haley elected leaves Greene as next pass rusher with no others in his way and big recent push by voters to elect defensive players especially rushers
Faneca also outnumbered Shields in First Team All-Pro selections, though Shields made three more Pro Bowls.
Just curious on who you think fills that Contributor slot next year. My early guess says DeBartolo or Bud Adams may get the nod.
Who gets selected at WR, Marvin Harrison or Randy Moss? Moss was hailed as redefining the WR position and didn’t benefit from having one of the greatest QBs ever throwing to him for most if not all of his career, but the off-field stuff is more acute with Moss as well. Something tells me if Harrison had been selected this year Moss would have been the favorite next year, and that may have gone into the decision to leapfrog Brown over him.
Greene finishing in the final ten definitely makes him a favorite to get in next year. The easy way to pick next year’s inductees is to take this year’s “first five out” and swap Warner for Favre.
MW
Moss is eligible in 2018 (he was on the 49ers in 2012). Terrell Owens is on the ballot next year.
Very solid class which also helps clear the backlog.
Also a good day for Notre Dame as well with Bettis and Brown going in together. Brown also joins an exclusive club of Heisman HOFers that includes Barry Sanders, Marcus Allen, Tony Dorsett, Earl Campbell, OJ Simpson, Roger Staubach, Paul Hornung and Doak Walker.
Early prediction for 2016:
Favre (slam dunk)
Pace (2nd ballot as was Willie Roaf. Shields was next in line)
Warner (will they elect another QB? Dungy perhaps though I preferJohnson)
Greene (as mentioned Haley’s election clears his path as next pass rusher)
Harrison (reached the Top 10 in consecutive years. Also agree that it was simply Brown’s turn this year after Carter and Reed)
Faneca will gain election eventually but even great interior linemen Dawson and McDaniel had to wait a few years. Shields waited until his 4th year of eligibility. Faneca, then Mawae are in for a similar 3-5 year wait. Hutchinson joins the ballot in 2018.
Whoops, forgot Moss returned after missing the 2012 season. Never mind.
It makes a pleasant change coming here reading the intelligent and thoughtful analysis and opinion. Social media is inundated with “(Insert favourite Player) was robbed. HOF is a joke” on the comments section.
I understand the frustration that many in the general public can over the selections and snubs, what annoys me is when writers who should understand the process complain and get up on soapbox calling for major reforms to the entire process because a player did not get in.
I like the class. I understand why Tim Brown over Marvin Harrison. Harrison will get in next year or year after. Brown wouldn’t have such a path. It’s a numbers game. By inducting Tim Brown over Marvin Harrison , Harrison’s resume stacks up better than the Brown’s vs the field.
Solid class. As everyone has said, the only surprise was Brown over Harrison. Completely agree with what Brad just said about that topic. I’m not crazy about Bettis, but his election was inevitable. The other four are extremely deserving, as are Tingelhoff, Wolf and Polian.
2016 seems like it will be fairly straightforward like this year. Obviously Favre is a lock, and Pace, Harrison and Greene seem extremely likely to get in as well. That last spot will be a bit of a wildcard. I’d probably give the edge to Dungy right now.
On the finalist front, Favre, Owens and Faneca should be on the list next year, so that will leave (at least) 2 open spots. I’d say Mawae is very likely to get one of those and wouldn’t be surprised if the other is filled by Edgerrin James.
I’m fine with Jerome Bettis in. Being in top 10 for rushing all time warrants HOF, let alone 6th all time. I know he had a lot of under 4.0 ypr seasons but he has the appropriate amount of pro bowls and APs.
As for next season, I hope Mawae is a finalist. He deserves it. And as a Jet fan, I also think they are underrepresented in the HOF. Larry Grantham, Winston Hill, Joe Klecko, Art Powell(primarily known as a Raider but he had a great run with Jets) and Mark Gastineau all have good cases.
Here are some good reads on the elections this year, including some insights on the voting
http://bleacherreport.com/articles/2349598-2015-pro-football-hall-of-fame-snubs-just-have-to-wait-their-turn
http://espncleveland.com/common/more.php?m=49&action=blog&r=17&post_id=42231
With Favre election in 2016 it will have been ten years since last QB made the HOF (Warner as finalist in 2014 was the first QB since 2006 as well). I wondered about this gap yesterday and it occurred to me that for the most part the decade of the 1990s did not produce many HOF quality QBs with Favre and Manning as the exceptions. Brady (2000) and Manning (1998) are team of 2000s team QBs and Elway (1984) and Favre (1991) on team of the 1990s. And looking at the SB, All Pro, Pro Bowl, and 1st round drafts from the 1990s clearly shows it was a bad period for QB development. Plus with Favre, Manning and Brady playing longer, should be no surprise that the ten year gap in electing QBs to the HOF occurred.
Yet with Manning, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, E Manning, Beth R, Rivers and Romo, the HOF ballot is going to fill up with QBs starting from 2021-2025! Now that is a logjam! Not saying they all get elected, some will likely have longer waits, but can see them on making the finalist lists and some years with more then one depending on the order in which they retire.
Not trying to jump ahead but how long will Jason Taylor wait for HOF induction? I’m thinking he will get in his 3rd time.
He was J.J. Watt before J.J. Watt. He had great ability in coverage for a defensive lineman as well as rushing the passer. Also, Jason Taylor was incredible at the strip sack(Like future HOFer Dwight Freeney). Dwight will have to wait a while because I said earlier the HOF is a numbers game. The all time interceptions leader had to wait a while.
As of right now Rivers and Romo are outside looking in. In 5-6 years? They could be first ballot with the right stats. 400 TDs isn’t unrealistic for Rivers.
I get annoyed every year by the over use of the word snub. It’s not a snub if you have to wait an extra year. It’s only a snub if you end up in the seniors pool.
The election of Brown was the most surprising, but not that surprising as he was next man up.
Once he is first eligible in 2017 Jason Taylor will be the best DL candidate on the ballot for a while so he will not wait long, may even be 1st ballot along with LT.
And yea once Carter went in the voters finally broke the WR logjam, Reed following by Brown was the path voters were going to take.
Which two seniors for 2016? As a Bears fan, Fortunato would be nice, but others are more deserving. Someone on Twitter asked Peter King why Tingelhoff over Kramer. He said Kramer had his chances as a finalist and Tingelhoff never did.
Now I’m skeptical on Robinson if that pattern continues.
Good class. Now Chuck Howley. Let’s also finally start inducting some safeties from both the modern and senior eras. Maybe we can make room for them by holding off on rushing too quickly to induct WRs from this stat inflated era, now that Brown, Carter, and Reed are all in. I’m glad they went with Brown over Harrison for now. Harrison belongs in Canton but he can wait a few years if that’s what it takes to address other positions, and I’m someone who would induct Harrison before TO and Moss. If it was up to me, those two have flaws that would prevent them from being first ballot.
Paul said: “I understand the frustration that many in the general public can over the selections and snubs, what annoys me is when writers who should understand the process complain and get up on soapbox calling for major reforms to the entire process because a player did not get in.”
Agreed. It’s better to focus on all the legitimate reasons for people to get up on soapboxes and call for major reforms of the process.
I see no need for major reforms to the process, yes certain players especially senior deserve to get in but no reform is going to solve that immediately as any voter has bias and keeping class to only 8 keeps elections where someone is always is left out . Not perfect but works and much better then any other HOF voting process .
In Romo’s case, the narrative completely changes if he wins a Super Bowl(Super Bowl MVP). Other than that he seems to have very worthy HOF stats, especially protracted over the next 4-5 years.
My guess is if Romo makes 2-3 more pro bowls(as a non-alternate selection), gets a Super Bowl ring, has a career winning playoff record and keeps putting up the stats he usually does, it would seem very difficult to keep him out of the HOF.
Rivers is in the same boat as Romo.
I would take Romo and Rivers over Eli with stats and over-all QB play, but Eli has the two rings they don’t.
A very solid class of HOF’s with Bettis a real close call.
Howley and Kramer would be my top two senior nominees.
I hope this coming year is the last I should have to call for Robinson and Wistert.
I want Howley and Kramer too boardgame.
Tonight’s game was a good example of why we shouldn’t crown people as Hof worthy early on in their careers. I’m a Wilson fan, but that game wasn’t one of his best. Let’s see what happens over the next 10 to 15 years.
Transparency (how each person voted every step of the way) and how the selectors are selected are just two of the areas we’ve discussed before where the process could be greatly improved, Paul, but I didn’t want to derail this thread. I just saw your comment and couldn’t resist a reply.
Terrible call not to give it to the beast at the end!!!
As far as the HOF for 2016:
Harrison, Greene, Favre and Pace are LOCKS; Dungy or Warner probably for the last spot with John Lynch maybe a wild card.
Dr. Phil, I think judging a player and his worthiness of the Hall of Fame based on Super Bowls are equivalent to judging pitchers on wins. The only difference is baseball is transitioning the sabermetric school of thought. Football has what I think is a misconception where there is more emphasis on the big game when measuring a player when need be. Both the baseball and football Hall of Fame have pros and cons. I love how football guarantees electees every year and certainly Seniors have a better chance than the Veterans Committee hopefuls do in baseball. However, with Cooperstown, you’re more likely to be judged on individual and not team accomplishments.
That makes me wonder if Seattle won and Revis never got back. Do the voters hold Revis back because he gave up that touchdown to Baldwin? With or without a ring, he has a case. I’m not a voter, so my interpretation is tonight’s result puts Revis a little closer to his ticket getting punched.
There’s no reason why Tingelhoff should’ve waited three decades. Now, what if the Vikings won all four instead of losing all four? What if Tingelhoff’s Vikings beat Webster’s Steelers? Does the former get in first ballot and is a 75th Anniversary member over the latter?
Then again, there’s Cliff Branch.
I think it’s best to not try to pick the brains of the voters or one may go insane.
I think Revis is pretty much assured election at this point no matter what would have happened last night. With a profile of 4/6/10s? and a reputation as the best cover corner of his time, that should be plenty enough to get him in.
I agree. I think he should go in as a Jet. His prime was then.
And Revis with Jets for the 6 years, he had a 3 year stretch of greatness. He was getting compared to Deion Sanders and Rod Woodson. He isn’t just best cover corner of his time but all time. And he is still very good.
Wow. I just read this Indy Star article online. Apparently the inside scoop is Brown got in over Harrison because Brown didn’t have Manning as his QB.
Also, if this is true, Tingelhoff wasn’t elected by the modern era because the other media members didn’t like the person presenting Tingelhoff’s case.
This sounds completely rotten if factual.
Corey, could you provide the link for that Indy Star article? I’d be interested in reading it. The guy who was presenting for Tingelhoff was probably Sid Hartman, a cantankerous guy who still works for the Mpls Star Tribune at 94. He certainly is a bull-in-a-China-shop personality. Surprising that it would keep Tingelhoff out this long, but I would imagine that personality issues could enter in when it comes to borderline guys.
I’m on my phone and my laptop speed isn’t what it used to be. The columnist who wrote it was Gregg Doyel. I found it on Twitter. Try searching for his name or the Indy Star there.
Yes. Hartman was the presenter. I see nothing borderline about Tingelhoff. To me, he was way overdue.
This hits home because I’m a recent journalism school graduate and looking for work in sports. I think some need to go back to class for this one. It’s about the players, not the media. You’re a voter. You’re supposed to have that journalism objectivity. Shame on anyone with their own agenda or petty grudges.
No one is obligated to like Sid Hartman, but they are doing the opposite of what their profession calls for if they used that of all things against Tingelhoff. Now I’m even happier than I already was that Mick is in, but my disgust has risen. It makes me wonder what other shady stuff these people masquerading as journalists have pulled.
And people wonder why journalists and the media are so disliked and not trusted by so many in this country.
I think the IndyStar article contained much speculation, but I can see a line of debate that Harrison’s numbers were driven by Manning, especially considering Reggie Wayne and now the Broncos WRs successes. The point that Brown never had a great QB, in fact he played with many different QBs his career who were average or worse, can strengthen his case. Add in Brown’s return numbers and I can see a case made for Brown over Harrison. But truth is that Harrison is getting in soon and Brown was due having waited for Carter and Reed first.
The HOF voters and elections in the 1970s and into the early 90’s was really a “old boys club” with the same small group of voters for years and many suggestions of bias and backroom deals that I have no doubt ended up favoring some teams and players while punishing others. That is why I think the efforts in the last decade to increase number and diversity of the HOF voters and introduce new faces has effectively broken many of those historical voting blocks and games.
I am also seeing more transparency with several voters posting their final ballots this year and Peter King with a detailed overview of his voting in today’s MMQB. Yes rotating voters and giving them set terms (5 years?) would help, but all and all I think the PFHOF is the best election process.
When you have 10 or even 15 truly HOF deserving candidates and only 5 slots the number and mix of voters is not going to stop the debate when certain players get in over others. Brown, Haley, Shields and Bettis have all been in the mix for the last few years, debated and with Haley and Shields in the final ten in 2014, it all becomes a numbers game and need to get players in over a period of time given the limited slots. Clearly the HOF voters saw the need to move these four to election, clearing the slate for other current and new candidates starting in 2016. Warner, Dungy, Harrison, Pace, and Greene are all deserving and will get in within next year, regardless of upcoming 1st time eligible players, and there are reasonable and understandable reasons why they wait yet the others were elected. But lets stop any serious discussion that the PFHOF voting process is broken and needs fixing or that the voters are stupid. If you only have 5 slots deserving HOFers are going to be left behind each year.
Corey, I agree that super bowl wins ( a team achievement) shouldn’t matter for the hall of fame (individual achievement). My point was that some people have been mentioning Wilson’s hof candidacy after only 3 years. My point was that we can’t make those calls that early in his career.
Bob Kraft will eventually be nominated and elected as a Contributor. I do wonder if one fateful play last night will end up being the difference for Pete Carroll’s candidacy. Still early days for Gronkowski but he’s certainly well on the path to greatness.
In regards to Tingelhoff keep in mind that the “efforts” by some voters to keep him out the HOF due to the presenter could have only happened in those years when HOF voters selected him as a modern finalist – which they never did. So although it is possible they did not advance him as modern candidate due to bias and personal dislike of who his presenter would have been, it is also likely (having looked at the list of 15 finalists from 80s and 90s) he just did not make the cut down to 15, which was also the fate of many others now in the seniors pool. And as we have discussed here many times once in the seniors pool it is hard to get out since so many deserving players are there and until 2004 only one could be advanced as a finalist.
Playoff success and SB wins do matter for individual players in line for the HOF, especially QBs. No it should not be the only factor or the most important, but since the aim of the game is to win with SBs in this era as the measure. I see no reason why an individual player can not also be judged based on his personal and team performance in the SB as a factor to be considered, and yes if they lose it may be not fair but QBs especially are held to that standard of winning or not. Troy Aikman is not in the HOF due to great season or career numbers, pro bowls or all pro teams, his is in the HOF due to how he preformed in leading his team in the playoffs and SBs, and since you could not write the history of the NFL in the 1990s without the Cowboys, their SBs wins and Aikman, he deserves the HOF.
And when his career is over Wilson, right or wrong, will be judged on – among other factors – his playoff record including this (and perhaps other) SBs.
Corey during the 1970s into the early 90s when the number of voters was smaller (32 or so) with many voters serving for DECADES, there are plenty of unfortunate stories of bias, lack of objectivity, block voting, and personal perferences for and against teams, players and other voters to fill a book. Although I am sure some of that may still exist, writers are human after all, it is unexcusable, and changes in the voters in last decade I believe have started to clean up many of those issues.
This discussion, with its reports of problems and speculation, just underscores why major reforms are reasonable to call for. I don’t think getting most of the decisions right is much of a defense. Any system would get most of the HoF decisions right. That doesn’t mean we shouldn’t introduce common sense measures to improve things. Would you want Congress to move to secret ballots for legislation, with some office holders choosing to publicize their votes and most not, all at their own whim?
Aside on Aikman – While I mostly agree with Paul on the SB/Aikman front, especially about Aikman’s postseason performance sealing his case (he had some of the greatest playoff stats of all time during the dynasty and still holds the SB career completion percentage record), I will note for the record since it sometimes gets lost in these discussions that he did make 6 Pro Bowls and retired with the 3rd highest regular season career passing completion percentage in NFL history among QBs who had been playing more than a few years. He also had some various impressive advanced stats. He didn’t have Favre-like volumes of TDs and yards in the regular season, because of the different system he played in, one that typically fed the RB the ball, especially close to the goal line, but it’s not like he was without any great regular season stats. He also aced the eyeball test, with many respected experts judging him to be the most accurate thrower in NFL history. But Paul is right about the playoff games, especially the Super Bowls, being the most important. They don’t put people into Canton or keep them out single-handedly, but they have a big say.
Not sure if making all ballots is a major reform or that it would change the process or results (just look at BB HOF) but I would support such a move. Just think that debates like Harrison vs Brown would continue when you have more deserving players than slots
Sorry “making all the ballots public”
I never used the Super Bowl argument. I’m not about to start now.
Warner was 1-2 in the Super Bowl, but holds the three highest passing totals in history. Reed was 0-4 in the Super Bowl but caught 27 passes and someone on NFL had the nerve to say Reed was out because of Scott Norwood? It took long enough for Reed’s election.
If rings mattered then where’s Branch? Kramer? Robinson? Maybe if what Paul is saying is true then maybe Robinson and Kramer need a second look if they were cut short due to the apparent politics.
Also, it took Haley long enough with his rings. Of the six players elected, only Haley and Bettis can say they were on a Super Bowl winning team. As a matter of fact, Shields never played on the biggest stage.
Would Dungy get so far if he didn’t win Super Bowl XLI? If the Hall is for the game changers, Coryell needs to be the next coach in. I get measuring wins and championships wit non-players more, but when you revolutionize the game like Coryell did, it’s awfully tough to keep excluding a true pioneer of the game.
I never said the SB wins should be the factor that gets players into the HOF, obviously many deserving players (Dan Marino, Jim Kelly etc…..) are in the HOF without a SB win. But playoff success, including SBs, should be considered and often are when evaluating potential HOFers, especially coaches and QBs. Again the aim of the game is to win, right? I am not so sure the SB win issue comes into play as much with other positions, but it certainly does everytime a coach and QB comes up for consideration. If you have to sort out 15 candidates for 5 slots looking at SBs and playoffs is one way to do so.
Robinson was caught in the anti-ALF bias that excited for decades as many of the voters were more pro NFL having representing those NFL teams in cities they wrote for. Some day (hopefully soon) Robinson is selected as a senior candidate and gets a chance to be considered by the current HOF voters.
Kramer appeared as a modern finalist ten times, was presented and discussed, and I have no idea why he was never selected, perhaps he came up against other more qualified candidates or the fact the the Packers of the 60s already had so many HOFers. I hope someday he also gets a chance as a senior, but it seems like since he had ten chances and many other senior candidates have had none, the senior selection committee may be passing over Kramer for others?
If not elected to the HOF once you become a finalist and you continue unelected for years, there are going to be debates and reasons why you are not selected, that are individual to each case. For example Haley had many just average seasons, lacked career and season sack numbers, few pro bowl all pro selections. These are the negatives that the discussion of the 15 finalists and voting down to the final 5 elected create – more reasons to eliminate candidates, rather then the positives to get them elected. Coryell had a poor career coaching record and lack of playoff success, etc…. these debates can go on and on.
Bottom line 15 are finalists each year, yet only 5 can be elected, easier to dismiss a candidate so as to move through the process to get to the final 5 elected: the most important numbers game is actually not wins, stats, or SBs but 5 slots only available.
When it comes to players, rings are lipstick on a pig. Tell me Plunkett belongs, I’d counter with no Pro Bowls, no All Pros, wasn’t an All Decade player and threw more picks than touchdowns.
Coaches and contributors are different. How else are they supposed to be judged? Coryell is the exception in my eyes.
Jim Plunkett wouid open door for Phil Simms who has a more complete resume , but even still. I don’t think either belong. Nothing against them but they don’t have enough.
And I never SB wins alone should get a player in the HOF and would not support Jim Plunkett
About Harrison, he was in his third year when Manning was a rookie. He became Marvin Harrison after Peyton arrived, but numbers showed he was competent.
im working on my top senior nominees list should be done with the next couple of weeks
I look forward to seeing it. It would be tragic if Robinson is passed up yet again this year.
Here is the list of senior candidates that I understand the seniors committee considered for 2015 (unfortunately we have no public information as to which advanced through the various elimination voters, thus after recent elections which two are the top remaining). There is no validation whether this list is complete and accurate due to lack of any public information on the voting process. And possible that newly eligible seniors may be added. Plus since the five members of the seniors committee who conduct the final selection at a meeting in August, rotate among the nine members each year, year to year trends on top candidates are hard to determine. But is is fair to assume that the two 2016 senior candidates will be drawn from this list, especially those that appear to have been candidates for last few years and not just for 2015. Thus Kramer, Branch, Greenwood, Howley, Curtis, Gradishar, Brazile, Meador, and Robinson would look to be most likely candidates, but given recent selections it is very hard if not impossible to predict who will be selected this August for the class of 2016. I would guess one of the 60s/70s LBs is very possible given that there are four of them, next perhaps DB, since the offensive options look pretty slim.
RG – Jerry Kramer 5/3/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
WR – Cliff Branch 4/4 – 70s-80s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
DE – L.C.Greenwood 2/6/70’s (finalist 2013, 2015)
DL Joe Klecko 2/4 (finalist, 2015)
LB – Chuck Howley 5/6/60’s-70’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
LB- Mike Curtis 2/4/60s-70s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
LB- Randy Gradishar 5/7 (finalist, 2015)
LB Robert Brazile 5/7/70s(finalist, 2015)
CB- Bobby Boyd 0/2/60s(finalist, 2015)
CB-Pat Fischer 0/3 (finalist, 2015)
CB/S – Eddie Meador 2/6/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
S – Johnny Robinson 6/7/60’s (finalist 2012, 2013, 2014, 2015)
Robinson, Kramer and Howley would be my top three in that order.
At this point I think Howley has been the most glaring omission for a while. As long as he makes it, I’d be happy pairing him with several different players from that list.
For me Howley and Robinson should be next, but I have lingering impression that another of the 60s/70s LB is going to be selected before Howley and wondering if the anti AFL basis, and not looking to yet select another KC Chief as a senior candidate, may keep Robinson waiting longer yet. Given what I have read that HOF voters feel Kramer already had 10 chances as a modern finalists, the senior committee may not be interested in putting him up for consideration, and rather give another senior who has never been discussed as a finalist a chance.
There is definitely a backlog of LBs and DBs on that list and with an OL being selected this year I would not be surprised if they looked at two defensive players next time. The only thing on the back of my mind is that with Favre being a lock and Packers fans booking Canton hotel rooms for August 2016 since last year will they possibly go all in for a Packers celebration of old and new era by selecting Kramer and match him with (hopefully) Howley or Robinson.
Then whichever of Howley/ Robinson misses out would then grab the sole Seniors nomination in 2017.
Any thoughts on who might be the choice for Contributor? Unlikely to be George Young after they went double this year on GMs. I’d like to see Steve Sabol while his father Ed is still alive.
Want to say “congratulations” to all those elected. Good class, and a nice job of catching-up done. Especially happy for Tingelhoff, who was long overdue and is still alive to enjoy the honor. Agreed that the HoF class next year looks likely to be Harrison, Pace, Dungy, Greene, and Favre. Any of the non-owner contributors would be fine (especially Sabol or a GM), and here’s hoping for some really deserving and not eccentric Senior nominees. The voters continue to do an excellent job.
Some more thorough analysis on previous seniors mentioned in Paul’s list.
Jerry Kramer – I get the need to give a chance to others who were never finalists, which Kramer was. That said, if it’s true there was a lot of politics and horror stories surrounding the Hall of Fame back in the day, then perhaps it’s only fair Kramer gets another look in this era of the seemingly more transparent and less corrupt group of voters. Pretty much all of us know he deserves it.
Cliff Branch – I think we’re looking at a senior selection before the decade is over. Ray Guy ought to tell us that there’s no anti-Raider bias like the supposed anti-Cowboy bias. Just like Tingelhoff, Branch was never a finalist. He was only a semifinalist twice. The fact that he has never had his case heard as a finalist I think works in his favor. If his time isn’t next year, I see it happening very shortly. He is one of the most deserving senior receivers, but not the only one. Is there anyone on this forum who would please be kind enough to tell me why Shofner isn’t in and doesn’t get more love?
L.C. Greenwood – This has to be a Steelers thing. I see other more deserving senior candidates around. On top of that, he’s not the only Steelers senior with a case. Donnie Shell has an argument, as does Andy Russell.
Joe Klecko – I don’t really get the appeal for Klecko as a Hall of Famer. The only thing I could think of is someone wants the New York Sack Exchange represented in Canton. He’s not someone I’d lobby for whether I was part of the Senior Committee or the voting overall.
Chuck Howley – He, not Dave Robinson, should’ve been the next senior linebacker elected after Hanburger. There are many deserving seniors. Out of all the linebackers in this pool, I’d put Howley at No. 1. Let me guess, he isn’t in because he won Super Bowl MVP but the Cowboys lost Super Bowl V, even though he was on the team that won Super Bowl VI.
Mike Curtis – Not sold here. I think he’s more of a middle tier than upper tier senior linebacker candidate. I think he belongs in more of the likes of Tommy Nobis and Lee Roy Jordan than with someone like a Chuck Howley. He’s still more worthy than Dave Robinson is.
Randy Gradishar – This has to be because his team lost in Super Bowl XII, right? Defensive player of the year, member of the 20/20 club. He had a 2/7 profile. If Howley is the best senior linebacker, or best linebacker not enshrined in Canton period, then Gradishar is not too far behind.
Robert Brazile – One of the four senior linebackers for whom I’ve called to be elected. Howley, Gradishar and Maxie Baughan are the others. Has a 2/7 profile like Gradishar does. He was Defensive Rookie of the Year in 1975 and member of the 1970s All Decade Team. Like Gradishar, he only played 10 seasons.
Bobby Boyd – He’s not my favorite, but he’s someone I’d vote for if given the opportunity. I wouldn’t say he’s at the top of my list if I was on the Senior Committee, but if I was in that room the day before the Super Bowl and if Boyd was a nominee, I’d vote yes. 57 picks, 3/2 Profile (Though Paul said he was 0/2) and a member of the 1960s All Decade team. That’s good enough for me to say he’s worthy of a bust.
Pat Fischer – I’ve been an advovate before. He has a 2/3 profile, 56 picks and not a bad scorer. I hadn’t anticipated he’d get as close as he supposedly has. Like with Hanburger, probably would’ve been elected before falling into the seniors pool if the Redskins dashed the Dolphins hopes of a perfect season. Not to mention, he had short stature, but brought it. There’s actually footage of Fischer covering Harold Carmichael and holding his own.
Eddie Meador – He was All Decade, he could recover fumbles, block kicks and make interceptions. He’s certainly one of the more deserving seniors not in and it’d be great if he got in soon.
Johnny Robinson – What more do you want me to say about this man that I haven’t already said? Get Robinson inducted. ASAP.
I doubt very much that the presence of Favre and Packers fans in 2016 is going to influence the seniors committee towards selecting Kramer, especially considering one of the factors going against him is the view by some that the Packers already have enough members, especially from the 60s decade. I think he may stay in the seniors pool for a while longer. I am not completely sure why Kramer has not already been selected, first as a modern and now as a senior, but does not look to me that is going to change any time soon. Keep in mind there are many supporters from other teams with senior candidates that want their turn and the seniors committee just nominated a Packer with Robinson in 2013.
It does make sense the the seniors committee goes defense with its selections for 2016, given Tingelhoff this year and the large number of defensive senior candidates.But my experience over the recent years has been rarely does the seniors committee nomination make much logical sense, although Tingelhoff was one and very deserving, same cannot be as easily said for many other recent nominations, so who knows what they will decide in August for 2016.
The one contributor I keep reading about is George Young as he has also been a recent modern finalist, so at least the full HOF voters committee has via mail in voting advanced him from 100+ preliminary, through the 25 semifinalist stage and into the final 15, so there must be some widespread support among the voters for him.
Here is the list of those considered for 2015, but we have no idea as to which ones advanced in the voting process, short of being elected and thus who may be next, except that they will come from this list. With two GMs this year, will the committee move to select an owner or Tagliabue? I am thinking that the committee whats to continue to validate and advance the need and role for a contributors category and thus at least for the meantime “play it safe” with someone they feel pretty confident can be elected, hence George Young, Gil Brandt or Bobby Beathard. Steve Sabol is another possibility but seems a little too soon after his fathers election. Hopefully they continue to wait on any owners.
Paul Tagliabue
Eddie DeBartolo
Pat Bowlen
Art Modell
Art McNally
Steve Sabol
Gil Brandt
Bobby Beathard
George Young
A good question would be if Kramer is a senior a second time is if he ends up like Dick Stanfel or Claude Humphrey.
It is a good question as Kramer was a modern finalist 9x and already a senior candidate once so many feel he had his chances and the senior slots should go to other senior candidates who have yet to have once chance as a finalist which gets them into the discussion
got my list done finished earlier than expected
Defense
DB- Dick Anderson
DB- Bobby Boyd
DB- Pat Fischer
DB- Dave Grayson
DB- Cornell Green
DB- Cliff Harris
DB- Eddie Meador
DB- Lemar Parrish
DB- Ken Riley
DB Johnny Robinson
DB- Donnie Shell
DE- LC Greenwood
DE- Tombstone Jackson
DE- Jim Marshall
DE- Harvey Martin
DT- Roger Brown
DT- Too Tall Jones
DT- Alex Karras
DT- Ron McDole
LB- Maxie Baughan
LB- Robert Brazile
LB- Joe Fortunato
LB Randy Gradishar
LB- Larry Grantham
LB- Chuck Howley
LB- Lee Roy Jordan
LB- Larry Morris
LB- Tommy Nobis
LB-Isiah Robertson
LB- Andy Russell
Offense
QB- Ken Anderson
QB- John Brodie
QB- Roman Gabriel
QB- John Hadl
QB- Jim Hart
QB- Norm Snead
QB- Ken Stabler
G- Ed Budde
G- Bob Kuechenberg
G- Dick Schafrath
G- Dick Stanfel
G- Bob Talamini
G – Ed White
G- Doug Wilkerson
T- Winston Hill
T- Ralph Neely
T- Jim Tyrer
T- Russ Washington
T- Al Wistert
WR- Cliff Branch
WR- Harold Carmichael
WR- Charlie Hennigan
WR- Harold Jackson
WR- Drew Pearson
WR- Art Powell
WR- Del Shofner
who would you pick as finalists from my list
Robert
No RBs or TEs?
I would add Kramer, Curtis and Klecko as all 3 were under consideration for 2015. What about Lester Hayes?
Peter King’s thoughts on his Monday column:
I marked an X next to Bettis, Haley, Seau and Shields. Now I was stuck. Dungy and Pace were worthy, in my mind. But as I winnowed, I found myself in a three-way mental tie for the fifth X: Brown, Greene and Harrison. Greene’s the fourth-leading sacker in the NFL dating back to 1960, with smart stats unearthed by relentless football-lover John Turney. Only Bruce Smith, Reggie White and Deacon Jones have more than Greene’s 160, and he twice led the NFL in sacks after the age of 32. A tremendously underappreciated player. I entered the day solidly in Greene’s corner, and nothing changed. Now the receivers … I liked Brown, a lot. My eyes told me Harrison was a slightly better receiver, more elusive, a precise route-runner who made beautiful music with Peyton Manning for so long. Slightly better. But Brown had a cast of mostly also-rans throwing to him in his career, caught just eight fewer balls than Harrison and had one big edge over most great receivers: his return ability. Brown had 4,555 return yards; Harrison didn’t return kicks or punts (he had just 21), so I factored that in too.
I really wanted Greene in. I absolutely thought Brown was deserving. I marked the X next to Harrison.
This was a cleanup year to me, with four new members (Charles Haley, Tim Brown, Jerome Bettis, Will Shields) who’d waited a combined 26 years for entry … Marvin Harrison is upset about missing for the second straight year, and I get it. It’s not going to get easier, either, with Terrell Owens, Hines Ward and Randy Moss joining Isaac Bruce and Torry Holt on the waiting list in the coming years … Longest debate in the voting room: Bill Polian, 51 minutes. Shortest: Junior Seau, seven minutes … The candidacy I felt has the best momentum entering next year: Kevin Greene. He’s going to make the Hall one day.
Peter King has also given his thoughts on the future candidacy of Darren Sharper today on Twitter.
Sharper1: Re the many who have questioned Darren Sharper as a candidate for the Pro Football Hall of Fame class of 2016, a few thoughts:>>
Sharper2: The 46 HoF voters are asked to consider only on-field factors for ex-players. That is what I do. He may be shy …>
Sharper3: …of qualifications, but he is certainly a candidate. 2000s all-decade player. 6th all-time w/63 INTs (Reed: 64). He’s a candidate.
Sharper4: We would be shirking our duties if we did not consider him. What has happened since should not be factored in.
The bylaws of the Pro Football Hall of Fame forbid the 46 voters from considering players’ off-field lives.
If I said, “I will not consider Sharper for induction because he has been accused of multiple rapes,” I would resign from the committee.
That’s one thing, but there are no thought police. How do we know someone votes against Sharper and cites he isn’t worthy when deep down they don’t want to vote for someone facing a prison sentence if convicted?
Jim Tyrer’s not in. On the field he was more than worthy. I’m guessing his post-career personal situation is the culprit. I’m guessing the character thing plays in whether it’s supposed to or not. Given the number of safeties without post-career personal issues who could be considered legit candidates (Lynch, Dawkins, Atwater to name a couple that pop into my head right away), I’d be stunned if Sharper made it anytime soon. I’d put him in the same class as those three but not decisively above them.
Robert, based on that list, the senior committee is in an unenviable position. I’d love to know why Stanfel was shot down twice. Even if two deserving candidates get nominated and elected, there’s plenty more waiting for their bust. So many deserving names on that list. It could take decades, if not forever, to get them in.
Corey there is no way in any process to how exactly how a voter feels, even if they were required to justify their decision they could also provide another supporting position based on on the field criteria. Sharper as a Safety is already facing long odds given how the HOF voters treat Safeties and the long list of those currently on the ballot that have not advanced and many more soon to arrive (Woodson etc…). So he does not get elected, then someone can also easily point out the situations with Atwater and Lynch, either not elected or took a long time to be elected. Plus if they value the Safety position less then others it is always going to be easier to vote in someone from another position equally or more qualified – and every ballot, especially 25 semifinalist and 15 finalist list has plenty of those players available. For example,” I did not vote for Sharper because I felt that Owens and Barber were better”
I suspect of the list that Corey provided, less than 1/2 are under serious consideration by the seniors committee as via written votes the 9 members get the list down to just 15 names to be considered and selected from and based on the list of 15 senior finalists I have seen from recent elections it does not change much year to year. At this point there are likely only considering 25 or so names, still a large number that under the current rules could take 20 years to get through – and that does not even account for future additions as current modern candidates are added to the seniors pool each year!
About two or three names I’m not familiar with. Some of them I’d vote for without hesitation. Others I need to refresh the memory on. Then there are those who have no business being on the list. That’s just me, however.
I think the current committee are doing a far better job with the modern era candidates that much fewer worthy names from this era will slip through the cracks and end up in the Seniors pool. Looking at the 2015 semi finalists both Roger Craig and Joe Jacoby have three more attempts as Modern Era candidates. Karl Mecklenburg and Mike Kenn have 4 years.
With Kevin Greene looking a certainty the next candidate with the shortest time remaining would be Steve Atwater, who has until the Class of 2024. Terrell Davis is next with a 2026 deadline.
Deron Cherry becomes a Senior in 2017 but he’s never been given serious consideration and I was shocked to see he wasn’t even on the preliminary list. Cherry was one of the premier DBs of the 80s with 6 Pro Bowls, 5 All Pros and 1980s All Decade 2nd team.
Once Greene is elected the only 1st Team All Decade picks from the 1980s and 1990s not in the HOF will be two OL (Jim Covert, Tony Boselli) and two safetys (Kenny Easley and Steve Atwater). The 1970s All Decade team have only two 1st teamers not in Canton and both are Cowboys: Drew Pearson and Cliff Harris.
Charles Woodson has announced he’ll be back next season and we still have to wait and see if Peyton (I think we see him for one last season) and his old buddy Reggie Wayne will play in 2015. Apart from that I’m struggling to think of any potentially worthy first-time eligibles for 2020. Kevin Williams perhaps? It looks like that could be a cleanup year for the leftovers from 2016-19. By 2020 we should have another 25 modern era names elected with at least 22 of them players.
bo knows 34 here are the only te and rb’s I could think of
TE- Todd Christensen
TE- Riley Odoms
TE- Pete Retzlaff
RB- Chuck Foreman
RB- Don Perkins
also I add
G- Jerry Kramer
LB- Mike Curtis
DT- Joe Klecko
I say Bobby Dillon, Jimmy Patton, Walt Sweeney and Jim Bakken are other names off my head which merit discussion. The same could be said for Billy White Shoes.
agreed with you there corey especially on bakken
Robert, just a quick correction. Too Tall was a DE.
Is Shane Lechler going to make the HOF in modern era? If so how long you think he will wait?
I don’t see a modern era for Morten Andersen unless it’s a weak year. Lechler has a wait cut out.
Thanks for the correction rasputin
Lamonica?
ill add him who should I replace him with at qb
I’ve never thought of Norm Snead as HOF material. That’s my opinion.
agreed corey ill replace snead with lamonica what do u think of my list overall
I like it. I hope tomorrow I can go deeper on my thoughts.
thanks corey I hope in the coming weeks that I can reduce my list down to 25 then 15 and then the two I would endorse
Looking at Robert’s original list, these people need to be in Canton immediately:
Johnny Robinson
Al Wistert
Del Shofner
Cliff Branch
Cliff Harris
Randy Gradishar
Chuck Howley
Robert Brazile
Maxie Baughan
Dave Grayson
Dick Schafrath
Some of these need to wait for others, but they get my vote
Joe Fortunato
Pat Fischer
Bobby Boyd
Andy Russell
Chuck Foreman
I could go either way on some
Bob Kuechenberg
LC Greenwood
There are those who don’t do it for me
Larry Morris
Ed White
Ken Stabler
Then again, some have not yet been brought up who may be worthy
Mike Stratton
As it stands today the 2020 class could be the first one in a long time to not have a serious 1st ballot contender (of course plenty could change with retirements and releases before start of 2015 season)
Then that could be a good thing when it comes to clearing up the logjam.
Since 1980 there have been only three years with no 1st year eligible modern candidates elected (1992, 1996, 2012). Not only could 2020 be added to that list, but could a year with no 1st year eligible modern candidate even in the finalist 15 list.
I’d be a fan of the hall going with Meador and Howley next year. Neither guy has ever been a finalist before, and would probably be an easy sell if they were up for a vote. Kramer and Robinson are still my top 2 picks, but previous voter bias notwithstanding, they have realistically had plenty of chances in the past.
Al Wistert is 94. Even if he lives another 20 years, he doesn’t have much time left. He should be elected and be able to enjoy it when he can.
I am afraid that the HOF seniors committee may have closed the book on candidates from the 1940s and earlier, perhaps even the 1950s, as it seems they are now increasingly focusing on the huge backlog of players from the 60s and 70s. I have not seen his name appear on any senior finalist lists from the last several years that ended up circulating in the public view. One has to wonder among the nine members of the seniors committee whether any of them have enough understanding of the history of the game back that far? Without a strong advocate in that committee, and then among the five of those that meet in August to select the finalists, candidates do not have chance. I am guess the nine senior committee members already have their own preferred candidates (as reflected in the rather stable list of finalists in recent years), so it then comes down to who “speaks” loudest and longest in the voting, especially those in the room while making the final decision. Not sure whether Wistert has anyone in his corner on the committee, certainly does not appear so.
Which is why someone needs to kick Rick Gosselin in the a@# to get him to advocate more strongly for Chuck Howley!
The Senior pool produced three nominees and two inductees this decade. Do we really want to say the book is completely closed on that decade?
If you think about it, that’s all the more reason to elect Wistert. One of those seniors died and was inducted the very next year. The other one was inducted and died a little under a year after that. I am of course referring to Les Richter and Jack Butler, respectively. You could argue there are other seniors with better profiles than Wistert, but how many of them are his age? He deserves it regardless of age, but why has he never been elected?
The last five are from 1960s/70s and the lists I have seen of the recent senior finalists are dominated by 1960s/70s candidates. I am not looking to close the book on the 1940s era, or 1950s, but looking more and more like the seniors committee is. In the last ten years, 13 senior candidates are from 60s/70s compared to 5 from 50s/40s (2 of which did not get elected!), just looking like the numbers are not in the favor of the pre 50s players.
If you see two candidates from the 1950s not elected, it also makes you wonder if voters simply do not appreciate or have the knowledge of that era, and whether to ensure stronger possibility of elections the seniors committee is now playing it more safe with 60s/70s candidates that at least some voters saw play and others are at least aware of them. I am in the same general age group as many of the voters and followed the NFL since the mid 1970s, and with a pretty good understanding of the pro game back into the 1960s, but besides general information and knowing the top historical events, wins, teams and best players, my pre-1960s knowledge of the NFL is also not that strong, as I suspect is also the case for any one 50 or younger including those among the HOF voters.
As to why he has not been elected, I think he was lost in a large pool of players from pre 1960, that could not rise to the top since the HOF only opened in 1963 and after electing the greatest players from the previous forty years of NFL history, the voters quickly moved on to the 1950s and then later into more the subsequent decades with many more recent players becoming eligible, and those from pre 1950 simply increasingly got left behind, more so when they started to drop into the deep seniors candidate pool.
As to his age, yes that is a concern, but as for those seniors candidates from the 1960s and 70s who are now in their 70s and 80s, not exactly great periods for health and well being with many of them starting to leave us and more so as the years pass without their election. By next year Chuck Howley will be 80, Robinson 78, and Meador 79, so health and lifespan is increasingly also issue for that era of players.
I would like to see Chuck Howley and Johnnny Robinson this year and either Jerry Kramer or LC Greenwood the following year. Also The posts earlier discussing Darren Sharper I find very interesting, because I feel that there is no other reason to keep Jim Tyrer out except for what happened after his playing days. Also if you get a chance, read the articles that came out recently on Marvin Harrison and then tell me that they did not have an impact on his recent votes.
I have a good friend who is a Philly police officer and I have heard some of these stories in greater detail and the people “in the know” definitely are conflicted about how to vote.
It is also possible since Carter, Reed, and Brown all had to to wait, the HOF voters finally set into a process to elect them in order, and thus Harrison also has to wait for the same reason – to first seen Reed and Brown elected. Keep in mind in the history of electing WRs very few are 1st ballot selections. Harrison is going to get elected (he was in final 10 his first two years) and since there is no way HOF voters are putting T Owens in next year as 1st ballot selection, Harrison is up next. We can speculate all we want about the motivations of some HOF voters to not select Harrison the last two elections, but looking at the WR position on the ballot over the last several years and how the logjam has been resolved, it is just as likely that Harrison simply has to wait his turn. Now if he is not elected next year your reason could start to carry more wait.
Sharper is more of a marginal HOF to begin with, again specially if you review and consider how the voters have viewed the Safety position as substandard to others. Truth is that there is already a line of Safeties awaiting election before Sharper even appears on the ballot (3 were on the 2015 semi-finalist list), so either way and regardless of his off the field situation he is looking at a long road to election.
Jim Tyrer also suffered the anti-AFL bias that dominated HOF voting until recent years, and once he fell into the deep seniors pool it is hard to get out. Just look at the case of Johnny Robinson who is an even more qualified AFL era candidate than Tyrer, and yet he still waits (Robinson is on the AFL All Time Team whereas Tyrer is not). Plus there are simply many other more deserving senior candidates.
Electing players as 1st ballot selections is overrated and often the focus of way to much attention and guessing my the media and fans. There are only five modern slots each year and many more deserving HOFers among the finalists, the result is a pecking order for returning finalists and often waits for other deserving HOF players. Once the HOF voters started down this process of electing some players while making others wait, it creates delays and a sequence of catch up voting that can result in very deserving HOF players having to wait. This year no one is saying that Harrison, Pace, Warner are not HOFers (they all made final ten!) just that other candidates had waited their turn when only five slots are open. Look at HOF voting over the last decade to see how these pecking orders for HOFers have been set up, and really the only players that have complaints is when their wait extends several years, which we may not have seen many of those recently, but did occur often not that long ago (Reed 8 years; Monk, 8 years; Carson, 7 years; Swann, 14 years!) . Plus some seniors have waited decades!! Looking at the potential 2016 finalists, Greene (5 years) has had the longest wait, and he is positioned for election. Others including Harrison are 3 years or less on the ballot.
I never got the whole Swann = snub thing. To me, he’s not a Hall of Famer. If he had the exact numbers and profiles in, say, Atlanta, would he have gotten in? I can name a handful of senior receivers more deserving: Shofner, Branch, Pearson, Carmichael, Jackson. Yet let’s elect another Steeler even though his former teammates Greenwood, Russell and Shell have stronger cases.
Oh yeah. I forgot Howton, Powell and Taylor. They also have cases.
Swann got in on the basis of his catches and impacts in three SBs, (and a member of the All decade team of the 1970s); the fact that it took him so long to get in the HOF shows that it was selection not easily come by the voters. It had nothing to do with the city or his season/career numbers, which pale in comparison of other deserving WRs from the 1970s, especially Branch and Pearson. Swann falls into that classic HOF justification (love it or hate it) that he deserves it because you could not write the history of the NFL (1970s or SBs) without his story. Personally I have no problem with his election, only that subsequently Branch and Pearson have failed to also be elected. Judging WRs from the 1960s and 1970s has gotten harder as time passes and the game moved into a much more passing focused league with WRs since the 1980s starting to put up huge numbers, meaning that evaulating (or attempting to compare) to early WRs has really hurt, resulting in so many pre 1980s WRs now ending up in the deep seniors candidate pool. Branch seems to have moved further with at least some consideration by the seniors committee in recent year, whereas others like Pearson appear to be dead in the water at this point.
Corey , Howton ,Taylor and Powell would be nominees I would endorse and as a Steelers fan I never thought Swann was a hofer Powell was on my original list of nominees for consideration I had totally forgotten about Otis Taylor
Paul, if you were to ask me who I think the next wide receiver is to come from the Senior pool, I’d say Branch. As much as I would love to see the honor go to Shofner, Branch is very deserving as well.
On the subject of Swann, sure he made some great catches. The last time I checked, Bradshaw was a Hall of Fame quarterback, Franco Harris was a Hall of Fame running back, John Stallworth was also a Hall of Famer on that receiving corps and they had one of the greatest centers of all time in Mike Webster. Not that I’m overly crazy about Stallworth but I’ll go as far as to say he’s more deserving of Canton than Swann. Plus, there’s that whole Steel Curtain thing. Having a legendary defense didn’t hurt either as to why the Steelers won a lot of Super Bowls. Add Chuck Noll to that. Jack Ham even said in his Hall of Fame speech that Noll can be credited for all of that success.
I think we should do a ranking of the senior receivers. It’s about as deep as the senior linebacker pool.
Paul said: “Which is why someone needs to kick Rick Gosselin in the a@# to get him to advocate more strongly for Chuck Howley!”
Amen.
That was me in my last message. My laptop didn’t automatically fill my whole name.
I’m pretty sure Gosselin said Howley was deserving. He just said that it’s such a deep pool and there can only be 1-2 selections a year. He argued about Dave Robinson vs. Chuck Howley. No contest to me, Howley deserves it more than Robinson.
I see Howley’s time coming.
Corey could I do the lb senior rankings
Sad news that Ed Sabol died today aged 98. What a life he had.
Go ahead, Robert.
Oh my gosh. RIP Ed.
This is not an easy list to construct, but here goes nothing. My ranking of the senior receivers.
#1 Del Shofner – I think the biggest strike against Shofner is the same strike that Stanfel probably has and that was both of them sustained greatness but during a short period of time. What if Shofner never got injured in 1964? 5 Pro Bowls, 5 First Team All Pros and a 1960s All Decade selection. Those profiles sure suggest a Hall of Famer to me.
#2 Cliff Branch – As I’ve said before, whenever the next time the Senior Committee nominated a receiver, I think it’ll be Branch. You can’t use the lack of championships argument. He has those. Looking at his postseason numbers, those check out, too. He had a 3/4 profile and has never been a finalist, only a semi-finalist twice. Going off of the logic that Tingelhoff was never a finalist, not do I think Branch will be the next receiver nominated by the seniors, I also think his election is coming sometime in the next five years.
#3 Billy Howton – Every person who has ever been the NFL’s all time leading receiver has found a place in Canton. Every person except for Billy Howton, that is. He held and set numerous Packer records and some of them just recently got broken. He, like Bobby Dillon, played for some bad Packer teams. He was let go not long before the Packers became a dynasty. Critics may argue how he could be good enough for Canton if he wasn’t good enough for Lombardi, but even the greats make lapses in judgment.
#4 Harold Jackson – 10,000 receiving yards may be pretty attainable today. That wasn’t, however, precisely the case in Jackson’s era. He racked up a lot of them and was ahead of his time. Looking at why he’s not in, he probably could have had more touchdowns in certain seasons and more receptions. He’s still good enough to be in for me. Jackson played in tons of games, too.
#5 Harold Carmichael – The numbers are there. The profiles, however, may not be. He never was a First Team All Pro. However, he was on the 1970 All Decade Team.
#6 Drew Pearson – I’d love to think there’s no anti-Cowboy bias when it comes to the Hall of Fame, but how does one explain the exclusions of Cliff Harris, Chuck Howley and Drew Pearson? Carmichael was a 1970s All Decade second team. However, Pearson was first team All Decade from the 70s. I’m not sure what it could be. I doubt it’s because of Jackie Smith’s Super Bowl XIII drop, since Smith is in the Hall of Fame himself.
#7 Art Powell – Like Shofner, he didn’t play for a very long time, but if we’re going on quality over quantity, tell me how Powell doesn’t deserve it.Twice he led the AFL in yards, touchdowns and yards per game. It’s probably more anti-AFL bias. He had some outstanding numbers for his era. However, it’s probably because the age he walked away from the game and when he walked away from it. It’s likely the same thing for Powell as it is Stanfel and Shofner. Besides, if Johnny Robinson can’t get nominated, what are the chances Powell does? He played ten seasons. He started with the Eagles and ended with the Vikings. All those seasons in between the bookends were spent in the AFL.
#8 Otis Taylor – He’s in a big pond. I think his numbers a little less than some others who are still waiting. He did spend a good amount of time in the NFL like he did with the AFL. I think eventually players from certain teams which played in certain eras eventually get maxed out. Then again, ask Culp and Dave Robinson. Taylor’s candidacy is probably whose I could least support. It doesn’t take away he was very good at what he did.
Corey,
There is a chance was politics involved on why Dave Robinson got into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Dave’s been a member of the Board of Directors for the Pro Football Hall of Fame. At the time Dave got inducted into the Pro Football hall of fame, Dave has been on the Pro Football Hall of Fame Board of Directors since the 1980’s.
I also called politics on this on Dave Robinson because Pro Football Hall of Fame voters before Dave Robinson got in claimed Jerry Kramer can’t get in because there is enough Green Bay Packers from the Lombardi era.
Best Lb’a Not in hall of fame
1,Chuck Howley
2. Randy Gradishar
3. Robert Brazile
4. Maxie Baughan
5. Lee Roy Jordan
6. Joe Fortunato
7. Larry Grantham
8. Mike Curtis
9.Tommy Nobis
10. Mike Stratton
11. Bill Bergey
12. Matt Blair
That is a good linebacker list, but I may put Andy Russell into the mix somewhere. Maybe after Nobis.
works for me billy w.
Larry Grantham was a 5x first team AP and 2 seasons didn’t make the pro bowl when he made 1st team AP. Those in my eyes are “pro bowl” seasons. His resume of 5/5/60s is pretty good. Surprised he never made the finalists. Back to Morton Anderson: I believe he will get in during the modern nominee era. He will have to wait until the obvious are in. Once T.O. Favre, Randy and others like them get in he will sneak his way in and deserving.
are there any players I missed on my original list if so let me know
Robert- You list is pretty comprehensive the only other LB I would even mention is Isiah Robertson and I would probably list him after all the other players listed. Also someone mentioned Larry Grantham and I would love to see him get a chance some day to get nominated, but he is behind some players that should already be in.
I also love the WR list by Corey, but did you or would anyone consider Gino Cappelletti or Billy Wilson?
Gino Cappelletti has a decent case. He wasn’t elite WR or kicker but the combination of both play a big factor for HOF. It’s HOF of players, not best at 1 position.
Jim Bakken was named to 60s and 70s all decade teams. I didn’t really realize that. He is certainly worthy of consideration for HOF. Being named to 2 ADT is tough. 1 alone is.
Wilson is okay. I think of Cappelletti as a kicker.
Add Bill Forester to LB list below Grantham. Also Lavvie Dilweg, Duke Slater, Verne Lewellen, and Riley Matheson to pre-50s candidates..
Good WR list by Corey. Agreed to add Billy Wilson, and also Mac Speedie and possibly Lionel Taylor.
Other names mentioned yet that should be:
Walt Sweeney
Dick Barwegan
Duane Putnam
Pete Retzlaff
Jerry Smith
Tommy Davis
Gene Brito
Bobby Dillon
Jimmy Patton
Abe Woodson
Kenny Easley
I’ve always thought Abe Woodson had a case. The combination as a Defensive Back and Returner, and being good at both, warrants being in the conversation for HOF.
Does Antonio Gates have a shot at first ballot? He had 12 TDs last season. Very good for a TE. He is 1 TD away from 100 for career.
HOF voters are tough on TE candidates (there are only 8 in the HOF currently) with many others from the 70s 80s and 90s not even getting close. Tony Gonzalez will get in, but may not even be first ballot. Although we are in TE era it may take some time for HOF voters to sort out the position with Gates and Witten likely next, followed by the many current era TEs. So until we see different, with Gonzalez as the test case, hard to say about the prospects of any TEs, especially as first ballot selections.
Yeah I agree that voters are tough in TEs. Gonzalez, Gates, and Witten are shoe ins(does not mean first ballot). They are locks to get in within first 7 ballots. They have resumes that warrant it. It all depends on who is left on the ballot.
Antonio Gates to me doesn’t have much of a shot currently as a first ballot unlike Tony Gonzalez, but he will go be inducted into Canton.
I’m saying this because of what happened to Shannon Sharpe. One of the things with Shannon Sharpe was Tony Gonzalez breaking Shannon’s Tight End records, but the other thing was some voters actually viewed him as a Wide Receiver despite being a Tight End.
I remembered some voters actually looked at Shannon Sharpe as a Wide Receiver despite being a Tight End since they felt Shannon was a poor blocker. Gates isn’t exactly known for his blocking unlike Jason Witten.
Shannon Sharpe had great numbers for a tight end, but his numbers didn’t stick out as much if you look at him as Wide Receiver like some of the voters did.
Antonio Gates right now has 37 more career touchdowns than Shannon Sharpe. The Touchdowns make a great case for him being a first ballot Tight End despite what the position, but his issue is receptions if some voters look at him as a Wide Receiver like they did for Shannon Sharpe.
Both Gates and Witten may need to get over 1,000 receptions plus some playoff successes to advance their HOF cases. They very well may get in, but given their current stats and how HOF voters view TEs, they may be in for a longer then expected wait of over 7 years. Sharpe held the career records plus 2 SBs to help his case but even then it took a while for him to get elected. Plus the current TEs are going to up against the current WRs in terms of voters needing to sort out the 1,000 plus receivers from this era, and how to view TEs that also block. Sorting out the TEs and WRs (plus the QBs) from this pass friendly era during the 2020s decade of HOF elections will be a major issue for voters. I am afraid given how HOF voters tend to treat TEs and the possible logjam of them on the ballot at the same time, is that they will be shifted to the back in favor of other positions with top candidates from over positions from the 2000s and current decade getting in first
The issues of 1980’s Tight Ends not being in the Hall of Fame outside of Winslow and Newsome is caused by a few factors. The AFC had better Tight Ends with career stats. I think there is 3 Tight Ends from the 1980’s needed more consideration. I am not mentioning Mark Bavaro because he had a great 4 year start as a tight end, but Injuries was affected his career and I don’t think his career is strong enough for the Senior Committee once he is eligible for that compare to other Tight Ends the Senior Committee has to look at.
Todd Christensen not being Canton is the fact his production was mostly in 6 years. The 1982 NFL Strike didn’t help matters for Todd since he caught 42 passes in 9 games. Todd was drafted in 1978, but he didn’t catch his NFL pass before 1981.
Mickey Shuler first played for the Jets in 1978, but really didn’t become a star before 1984. Mickey was at his best in a 5 year stretch without counting 1989. Mickey was on way to another Pro Bowl type season in 1989 with 29 catches in 7 games. If there was no 1987 strike and played in 16 games that season besides his injury shortened 1989 season, Mickey would have got more consideration since he would have had over 500 receptions. Mickey’s not being considered despite having 462 catches and 37 touches is caused by his prime being 5 seasons and he was overlooked by other talented Tight Ends the AFC had at the time. Mickey Shuler had to deal with other Tight Ends like Winslow, Newsome and Christensen and is why Shuler only has 2 Pro Bowls.
I thought Steve Jordan of the Vikings would’ve gotten more consideration if he had 2 more receptions and more Touchdowns. Steve Jordan has 6 pro bowls as a Tight End, but only 28 touchdown receptions. Steve was great from 1985 to 1993. I don’t know much of the issues Steve Jordan getting into the hall is caused by the fact he was a Players Union Rep for the Vikings. Steve also was part of one of the many antitrust lawsuits that led to a landmark collective bargaining agreement which brought unrestricted free agency to the NFL back in the early 1990’s.
I am mentioned Steve’s involvement with the Union because one the reasons it took John Mackey so long getting inducted into Canton was John Mackey being the first President of the NFL Players Association. It is possible that Steve’s involvement is Union matters is hurting him with the voters since it did with Mackey.
I think Witten getting over a 1,000 catches is not a problem if he doesn’t injured with him turning 33 this season.
Gates is going to have a hard time getting 1,000 catches in his career since he only has 788 going into the off season and is going to be 35. He also missed games due to injuries before and it didn’t help matters.
He might end up with 900 receptions since age has to kick in at some point besides concerns of staying healthy. Gates only caught more than 80 passes a season 2 times and they were early in his career. When Gates is healthy, he’s a 70 receptions in a season type Tight End. Gates best way to Canton is by Touchdown receptions. Gates is capable of getting more Touchdown receptions than Tony Gonzalez since he’s only 12 touchdown receptions away.
Antonio Gates nor Jason Witten have to play 1 more down and they will end up in Canton rather soon. Not waiting 10+ years.
Brad,
I did mention that Antonio doesn’t have much of a shot of being a first ballot, but he will get inducted into Canton. I didn’t say nothing on Witten for a reason. You didn’t ask about Witten about First Ballot and he isn’t going wait long anyway. I followed the NFL since the 1980’s.
The Tight End position really has changed in terms of standards and it is very close to Wide Receiver standards now days. That is the issue with Gates that I will explain.
Gates has the touchdowns, but the amount of receptions is way less than Witten and Gonzalez in terms of first Ballot or 2 depending on the year. Gates to me is 4 to 7 year wait guy right now. Gates has a great touchdown to Reception ratio and is very influential player for the Tight End Position before Jimmy Graham and Rob Gronkowski came along and is why I say 4 seasons for waiting at best.
I only say 4 years at best only because of 99 touchdown receptions. The amount of Receptions from Gates right now is concern is concern despite having 788 receptions because today’s game is more of a passing league than in the days of Shannon Sharpe. The Standards of Tights Ends catching the Football now isn’t that much different compare to Wide Receivers.
I would foresee at least a 5 year wait for both, maybe longer depending on other players on the ballot, as again there are only 8 TEs in the HOF and until voters shift to a better appreciation for the position TE are going to fall behind other positions and by the time they are on the ballot so will many others from the team of the 2000s decade.
I understand TE’s now are being compared to WRs but Antonio Gates’ TDs for anyone regardless WR or TE, warrants HOF selection. What pass catcher that has 100 TD’s . The fact Jan Stenerud, who I have no problem being in the HOF, made it first ballot as a kicker. Someone who plays a lot more deserves consideration. If I were to bet if either Gates or Witten get in or not on first ballot, I would put my money on no first ballot. I didn’t say they will get in first ballot. I just wanted to hear everyone’s opinion and I agree.
“What pass catcher that has 100 TDs” meant to continue it with: doesn’t deserve to be enshrined? Sorry about that.
And Gates is a member of the 2000s all decade team and those selections have weight (right or wrong) to HOF voters.
I think the issue will be moot as Gonzalez, Whitten and Gates all get in, and probably in that order. The ballot they get in on, will depend on when other retire. For example, what if Gates, P, Manning, Whitten, wayne, Vinatierri, Woodson and Peppers all retire at the same time, and then the next year J.Allen, Brady, Peterson, S.Smith, Boldin, Fitzgerald and Brady all retire together the following year. When great players all retire at the same time, that is when backlogs occur. Even if those players are not all getting in at the same time, they split votes.
Steve Smith I see getting in if he plays another 2-3 years with 1k+ in receiving yards each season. He can do it, but remains to be seen .
And at least 5-6 TDs each season too.
At age 35 hard to expect that Steve Smith will have another 2-3 years of thousand yards, that would be very rare for a WR. Often with WRs (like RBs and QBs) the end can come fast and unexpectedly suddenly one season. I think we have seen the best of his career, which is not going to be enough to get him in the HOF. He will end up mixed into a large number of 900+ reception WR from this era, and little to separate them for HOF consideration.
Yeah I agree. Steve Smith has had a very good career. If guys like Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, Reggie Wayne and Larry Fitzgerald weren’t around he would be in.
After those get in(Randy, T.O. and others) that is probably it for the era of the late 90s-2009-10ish.
Jerry Rice is the only Wide Receiver that I know that has 1,000 yard seasons over the age of 35 years old. What hurt Steve Smith for Hall of Fame chances was the fact he severe break in his leg in the 2004 game opener against the Packers. Steve had 6 receptions in his only game of 2004 for 60 yards. If it wasn’t Steve’s injury in 2004, he might have over 1000 receptions right now for well over 14,000 yards.
There are going to be plenty of WRs on the ballot for the next 10-15 years, potential for large logjam impacting timely elections of the most deserving and forcing many deep into the pool of finalists against equal or more qualified candidates from other positions from their eras. There are several HOF candidates yet elected from the team of the 1990s and HOF voters are just getting started on the team of the 2000s decade. You can not debate the chances of all the WRs from those eras without keeping in mind that many other players from other positions are also going to compete for the five modern slots each year. You have already seen that situation over the last several years with the members of the 1990s decade team.
Marvin Harrison will get in 2016 class most likely( it’s the way it’s looking). Terrell Owens will get in the following year. No other player in NFL history has more receiving yards than him not named Jerry Rice. Then Randy Moss will get in within his first 2. Then Hines Ward, Torry Holt. Isaac Bruce, and others will fight over for next. It will be interesting to see the pecking order.
I think Owens is going to have a much longer wait then simply one year I could see 3 or more, perhaps 5 years. If the voters were in no hurry to put in Irvin, Carter, Reed, Brown and Harrison, they certainly are not going be in rush to elect Owens. Even Moss is going to get some push back from enough voters to delay him a few years or longer as some will not forget his years in Oakland and how he intentionally mailed it in.
I don’t see someone with 156 TD’s waiting 5 years. Maybe 3. Voters didn’t put in Irvin because he was arrested with a crack pipe. Same possibly for Marvin Harrison’s because of off field controversy. Why isn’t Jim Tyrer in? Not trying to compare the two but off field does play a role in how long players wait. Attitude matters but T.O. and Randy Moss were not law breakers.
Owens and Moss are going to wait because their behavior as teammates hurt their teams, nothing to do with non-football issues, but instead how all too often they acted unprofessionally which impacted the success of the teams they played for. With WRs, including even Irvin and Harrison, there is enough reasonable debate over their career numbers and performance when compared with others on the HOF ballot, to impact their delays in getting into the HOF without even considering their off the field issues (which by HOF bylaws voters are not allowed to consider). If it was simply about numbers voters would elect every player in the top 10 career numbers at the position and all members of all decade teams and be done. But the game and on the field performance is more than just about numbers. Moss and Owens are getting in the HOF no doubt, but I see no need to rush to put them in when there are issues with how they performed on the field and instead the voters can easily elect other just as deserving players on the ballot the next few years.
And we already discussed how Tyler was bypassed as an AFL team due to the anti-AFL bias of so many HOF voters in the 1970s and 80s, he ended up in the deep pool of seniors where it is very difficult to get out of. And he is not even the best AFL player in the senior pool who is more deserving of election to the HOF – that would be Johnny Robinson.
As to Harrison he is not a law breaker either, and I fail to see why some think off the field rumors alone are keeping him out of the HOF when in fact he has been in the final 10 each of his two years as a finalists. Clearly he was caught in the WR logjam and has waited until both Reed and Brown were first elected since they also have similar career numbers but have on the HOF ballot much longer. Harrison gets in next year and everyone will have to stop blaming voters for considering his off the field rumors.
Terrell Owens went 130-89 in his career. Randy Moss 122-95.Owens played really hurt in the SB vs Pats and posted 9 receptions for 122 yards. What a bad teammate.
Teammates*
Randy Moss would have a ring for a 19-0 team if David Tyree didn’t have the most incredible clutch catch ever. They impact games more than you think.
Sure they impacted games, but there were also a number of cases where their performance (or lack of) impacted the success of their team. Just look at Moss in his 2nd year in Oakland and TO with the Eagles in 2005 – none of which were off the field issues but how they actually played. Again I am not saying they will both never get into the HOF as they clearly will, but when it comes to elections, especially first ballot, voters tend to look for the negatives to separate selections, and both players have enough that will delays their elections 2-4 years.
I know first ballot seems next to impossible but they won’t wait more than 3 years a piece.
Once you are not first ballot it becomes hard to know when a player will get elected as each year brings more candidates, some that are just if not more qualified. And of course whether it is 2-3-4 years does not really matter as they are getting into HOF at some point and then no one cares or remembers how long it took. When Harrison gets elected in 2016 the debate over why he was not elected earlier goes away.
Steven Jackson isn’t too far off from 12,000 yards. What are his chances?
Steven Jackson is a fringe HOFer. He has a better case than Fred Taylor but, no 1st team APs and no rushing title. Shaun Alexander has a laundry list of accolades compared to Steven. If he gets in how do you justify Shaun not in? I believe both deserve to be in at some point whether it’s via modern or senior nominees. Priest Holmes is also fringe but I would have those 2 in first.
Steven Jackson is never getting into HOF, plenty of 10,000 yard backs from recent eras have not, and are not getting in. Alexander may have a shot some day way down the road, Holmes also not getting in. Sorry to be hard about this, but at some point you have players that were very good but not HOFers. And even if they fall into the seniors pool it is very deep already with players more deserving who have been waiting decades and be many more in there by the time they are senior eligible.
Frank Gore has a similar resume to Steven Jackson. The number of 10k backs kill their chances. When Jim Brown, O.J. Simpson, John Riggins, Walter Payton, and Eric Dickerson rushed for 10k it was not achieved by many. It was a big deal to get to 10k like 300 wins. But now in MLB , 300 isn’t going to be reached for probably another 15+ years. 29 have done 10k total as of now. 10k isn’t as impressive as it has been in past. Jerome Bettis, the 6th leading rusher ever , had to wait on his 5th ballot.
What is Mario Williams’ chances for HOF?
are*
To add to what Paul said, there are even plenty of great (not just “very good”) players not in the HoF. After all, it’s not the “Hall of Great”; Hall of Fame is a subset of great.
Mario Williams doesn’t have a chance to be inducted into the Pro Football hall of fame if he career ends today, but what he does in the next 3 to 4 seasons could change that. Mario is 30 years old and that means he could improve his resume. Mario has one of those resumes that is about 2 or 3 seasons away from Hall of Fame talk based on him having 4 pro bowls and 1 first team all time.
Mario Williams to me belong in the Hall of very good as this point. He is a much better player than portrayed by the national sports media when he was made the first pick of the 2006 draft. Mario to me is a player that is better year in and year out in Buffalo than he was with the Texans.
Mario has 4 pro bowls and 1 first team all pro with 91 sacks, but he doesn’t have the dominance like Jarred Allen had in his prime when you talk about the defensive end position year in and year out before going to Buffalo. Mario’s problem to me also was his production at Houston for his final 3 seasons although his injury history with the Texans didn’t help matters.
The way he is playing now he is on his way to the HOF. He had by far his best season as a pro. 12 games with 0.5 sacks or more, 10 with 1 or more. He used to have a lot of games with zero sacks. Not even a half sack. 2014 he had 4 games of no sacks. Mario is averaging 12 sacks per season past 3 seasons. He keeps it up he will reach 140-150 sacks for career.
12.6 sacks per with Bills to be exact*
Brad, I am aware of his average seasons of sacks in Buffalo. Mario can’t keep it for getting 140 to 150 sacks in his career. I’ve seen defensive ends age great in their early to mid 30’s, but I also seen Defensive End age poorly in their early to mid 30’s.
Mario Williams needs 49 sacks to reach 140, but he turned 30 earlier this year. I am mentioning this because he has missed games in his career before due to injuries and has played with Injuries. That means you are dealing with a player that could decline any season now because he does have an issue of staying healthy. It is possible for Mario getting 1 or 2 more great season for sure, but his health is the key.
I am mentioning in his 30’s due to the defensive ends I mentioned below as examples of players that decline in their early 30’s.
Simeon Rice got 119 sacks before the 2006 season and Simeon only got 3 more sacks after that despite being being only 32 years old in 2006. Simeon Rice in 2006 really declined before he was injury reserve. If Simeon’s play didn’t drop so fast, you are talking about a player that would have been looked at more as a pro football hall of fame candidate although he was weak against the run.
Jarred Allen is another defensive end i point in terms of decline happening quick and that could happen to Mario Williams. Jarred Allen last year had has worst season as a pro and he was only 32 years old at time. Jarred Allen was 31 when had has last 10 or more sack season to date.
Neil Smith as a player was better in his 20’s than in his 30’s. His final season with 10 or more sacks happened when he was 29 years old.
Dwight Freeney had his final season with 10 or more sacks when he only was 31 years old.
Very hard to project the future numbers for any player in their early 30s including those with HOF potential. More many players will fall off and never make the HOF then those that can sustain a high enough level of play to be considered for the HOF. By the age of 30 most NFL players are going to have between 6-8 of league years, so a good portion of a career but not enough to get into the HOF.
A typical NFL player is drafted or comes into the league as a FA at around age 21, so by the age of 30 if they are still playing they would have 9 or 10 seasons completed. If they have not built a resume of all pro/pro bowl teams, top season numbers and/or playoff success by then, it will very difficult for many players to add or enhance to that during their post age 30 career unless they are one of the very few players who can sustain or improve in what typically would be the last 1/4 of their career with another 4-5-6 years playing). If you look at the careers of most HOFers, their first ten years is how their HOF quality career was built. So if they do not have it by age 30, very unlikely they will get there when done playing.
Mario is someone to keep an eye on is what I was trying to say. Dwight Freeney has been hurt and as a result not the same since his last 10 sack season. Dwight will make the HOF but will have to wait a while. He wasn’t a run stopping Defensive Linemen. I’m not for tackles as important as any stat but they certainly help your case. He has 311 total tackles. Season high of 41. 7 double digit sack seasons is good. Leading league in sacks is good as well. 3/7/00s is a great case for the HOF alone.
DeMarcus Ware’s 4/8/00s and increasing his pro bowl total and sack total, he could be a first ballot when he retires. Most thought he was done with 6 sacks in 13 games in 2013. He almost doubled that the next season. He is showing no signs entering 4 sack seasons like people people thought he would. It seems like no shot but in 4 years he could be an 11x pro bowler.
At age 30 with 9 seasons including 4/4 profile Mario Williams is in good shape, but my point is that he will need to close the deal over the last 1/3 or so of his career during the next 3-4 seasons and after the age of 30 when more players decline then maintain or grow in terms of the quality of their play and injuries become an increasing factor. Can he get another 30 or 40 sacks which is likely is what he will need to solidify his numbers, position to be on the 2010s all decade team? But it could easily go the other direction and at this point his HOF potential remains very unclear. Just look where Jared Allen is at in his career at age 33, 5.5 sacks in 2014 and 134 career sacks (29 sacks after the age of 30, and with his career possibly done is he already a sure HOFer?
At age 32 Ware bounced back with a 10 sack season in 2014 (but no sacks in last 5 games or the playoffs) but the questions remain as to whether he can continue to stay injury free for another 2-4 years. But he certainly has strong HOF numbers, much of which were achieved (sacks, pro bowl/all pro, team of the 2000s) before he turned 30. 2014 season certainly helped strengthen his HOF case, but it was built during his 20s and will not be during his 30s.
Again I place little importance to or value in projecting first time HOFers since so many other factors, such as the pool of candidates and voters prioritizing selections, can often come into play. Michael Strahan had very similar career numbers and profile as Ware (plus a SM win) and he was not a 1st ballot selection as have been many other deserving HOFers.
Yeah, but Strahan was likely displaced by Sapp, whose first ballot induction case was shaky and widely criticized to say the least. Frankly I wasn’t sold on either of them being first ballot, but Ware has already passed them in Pro Bowls, and has significantly more sacks than Strahan did at this point in his career (and of course a lot more than Sapp the DT finished with), so with a couple more good seasons he could lock down legitimate first ballot status.
Warren Sapp was named to both 90s and 00s decade teams. He is one of the best defensive tackles ever to play and for that matter, one of the best defensive linemen ever. Very hard to block.
For all we know at this point Ware could appear on the ballot with 3 other all decade team members
Dwight Freeney’s pro bowl and all pro numbers are great, but his running stopping is going to hurt him some. I am bringing this up due to Simeon Rice. Simeon Rice was a bad run stopper, but he 8 seasons with double digits in sacks out of his first 10 seasons of the league. That was even more than Dwight Freeney, but the only difference is Dwight has the better Pro Bowl and All pro resume.
Demarcus Ware’s age to me is a concern this year although having Von Miller as a teammate could help him out. Demarcus going to 33 years old and usually linebackers don’t get double digit sacks in a season that age.
The only linebackers that I know had 10 or more sacks in a season 33 years old or older is Ricky Jackson and Kevin Greene.
I am bringing this up due to Lawrence Taylor and Derrick Thomas. At the time of Derrick Thomas’s Death, Derrick was slowing down also. Derrick Thomas only had 7 sacks in 1999 when he was 32 years old. Lawrence Taylor was 31 when he had his last digit digit sack season and Derrick Thomas was 31 years old.
Tom Brady is going to be named to the 2010’s all decade team. Is Peyton the other or is it Drew Brees or Aaron Rodgers or someone else?
As of now Peyton, but once Peyton most likely will retire after 2015 season, there is still 4 more regular/postseasons to be played. I would put in Aaron Rodgers if he can keep up what he is doing. Drew Brees would definitely make it with a SB win and a MVP regular season or 2 (barring what others do),
We still have 2015-2019 seasons (5 more) in this decade, possible that Andrew Luck also makes a big push for that slot, depending on seasons and SBs.
If both Brady and Manning make the 2010s team that gives them both back to back all decade teams, rare for any player or position, but especially for QBs.
I can see Andrew Luck but look at Tom Brady, Drew Brees, and Aaron Rodgers’ resumes in 2010s to now. Say Wilson won the the SB this year(Pretty close to). He would have fast track to it. Could have been a 3peat next year. Realistic because of who is under contract. I like their chances next year making a run to the SB for the 3rd straight season. 49ers are in a coaching transition. Rams aren’t getting better(not bad but not going to win 11-12 games to compete for division). I see 7-8 wins from them at most. I see Cardinals making a run for division but it all depends on Carson Palmer’s health. And I do believe Marshawn Lynch will and should stay in Seattle to win 2 in 3 years.
Peyton could play another 2 seasons. All depends this upcoming season.
Payton was not All Pro in 2014 and could chance he will also not be in 2015 and 2016, so still chance for another QBs to start building All Pro teams for remaining 5 years in this decade. It will not be easily to push Brady or Payton off the 2010 all decade team but if someone like Luck can get a few SBs plus a few AP it could get interesting by end of 2019 season.
Sapp only had 4 first team All Pro selections, 7 Pro Bowls, and fewer than 100 sacks in a pass happy era, so his two time all decade status was more a function of perfect timing, straddling the changeover, than sustained ultra dominance. He was legitimately great, at least for a few years, and I would have eventually put him in the HoF, but I agree with those who said he was a reach as first ballot. There have been at least a few greater DTs in recent decades.
Playing roughly the same length career John Randle had 41 more sacks than Sapp and was selected first team All Pro 6 times, and yet Randle (who won a sack title with 15.5 in 97) had to wait until his second year of eligibility. In a shorter career Cortez Kennedy amassed 8 Pro Bowls and 3 first team All Pro selections, and had to wait until his 7th year of eligibility. La’Roi Glover won a sack title (17 in 2000) and only finished with 1 fewer Pro Bowl than Sapp. He only has 1 first team AP All Pro selection, but kept getting runner up status to Sapp in that metric and received some first team All Pro selections from other outfits in those years. Despite that closeness Glover gets no HoF talk at all.
I’d probably place Sapp somewhere between Kennedy and Randle, but definitely more in that range than on par with first ballot DTs like Randy White, Bob Lilly, Merlin Olsen. and even Joe Greene. That said, I can anticipate and partially agree with the response that first ballot status depends on whom one is going up against in a particular year. My original comment was just that I wasn’t sold on either of them (Sapp or Strahan) being first ballot, especially to the extent that such status is supposed to convey some special comparative historical meaning. If Sapp’s induction that year was legitimate (arguable), it was due to lucky timing rather than him being on the same level of those great players of the past I listed.
The 2010s All Decade team should still be wide open.
Warren Sapp was one of the biggest reasons the Bucs were considered a historic defense. I understand who he played with but we consider Joe Greene an all time great even though he played with many HOFers.
I’m not saying Sapp was better. I’m just saying he deserved first ballot honors.
Bob Lilly – 11 Pro Bowls, 7 first team All Pros
Randy White – 9 Pro Bowls, 7 first team All Pros
Merlin Olsen – 14 Pro Bowls, 5 first team All Pros
Joe Greene – 10 Pro Bowls, 5 first team All Pros
Warren Sapp – 7 Pro Bowls, 4 first team All Pros
Accolades don’t tell the whole story, but I don’t quite put Sapp on the same plane as those other guys anyway, and in this case the accolades reinforce that difference. Of course all those guys are on All Decade teams (Lilly and Olsen were on two too) , were on historically great defenses, and won Super Bowls (except Olsen).
In fact Alan Page was a 9 time Pro Bowler, 6 time first team All Pro, and All Decade member who had to wait until his second year.
If I were to guess, I’d say Rodgers, Watt, Joe Thomas are all locks to be All Decade for the 2010s.
Watt maybe, and Thomas has a high likelihood, but there’s still some question at QB.
Rodgers has won tw MVP awards and a Super Bowl MVP. Then again, Steve Young dud the same two decades ago and he wasn’t on there.
Rodgers has 3 Pro Bowls this decade, 2 first team All Pro selections, and a really high passer rating, but some other QBs are off to a good start too, and there are several years left.
Rodgers needs more than 1 more mvp award for being a lock to be on All Decade for the 2010s. I mentioning this because Brett Favre was on the 2nd all decade team back in the 1990’s despite his 3 MVP awards.
He might need another ring or two. Manning won four MVP awards in the 2000s but was second team. Meanwhile Brady won his first MVP that decade but was first team with three rings.
I do agree that another Super Bowl Ring is something Aaron Rodgers needs for 1st tean all decade, but it doesn’t completely explain John Elway being on the 1990’s first all decade team. If it was on Super Bowl Rings only Troy Aikman deserved it since he had 3 rings, Super Bowl MVP and 6 Pro Bowls. The only problem with Troy was his Touchdown stats and his passing yards.
John was Super Bowl MVP and 2 time Super Bowl Winning Quarterback, but had no first team all pros that decade, or mvp awards in the 1990’s despite 6 pro bowls. I would argue John didn’t deserve his first pro bowl in the 1990’s back in 1991. The Broncos went deep in the playoffs that year, but Elway only had 13 touchdowns and 12 interceptions. Elway didn’t have great numbers under Dan Reeves from 1990 to 1992.
The only reason outside the rings Elway got it to me was the myth that the Broncos was a one man team. That is what the National sports media portrayed the Broncos when Elway was the Quarterback when the Broncos had Karl Mecklenburg, Dennis Smith, and Steve Atwater for Defense. Elway didn’t win a Super Bowl before Terrell Davis either and Shannon Sharpe being the best passing target he ever had.
I honestly would have given it to Aikman or Steve Young over Elway, but the late 90s may have been when the anti-Cowboys bias was entering its peak, and that showed through in the All Decade team. The worst example was Darren Woodson, the decade’s best safety, getting jobbed in favor of Carnell Lake (?!?), LeRoy Butler, and a Ronnie Lott who only played through 1994 and had two Pro Bowls in the decade. Jimmy Johnson being passed over in favor of Marv Levy and Bill Parcells wasn’t as bad, but was also questionable.
I agree that Aikman or Young deserved it over Elway. I thought John was a great quarterback, but was not the best quarterback.
I agree that Ronnie Lott didn’t deserve that decade team and Darren Woodson needed to be on the all decade team instead.
I didn’t mention Rod Smith because I forgot about him in terms of the Elway era for a couple reasons since he only had 2 big seasons in that era and Rod had 6 season 1,000 yards after Elway. The 2nd reason was Shannon Sharpe was the best Receiving threat at his position back in the 1990’s although I thought Keith Jackson, Brent Jones, Ben Coates, Jay Novacek, Frank Wycheck, and Wesley Walls were very good receiving Tight Ends in the 1990’s.
While Frank Gore has a similar resume to Steven Jackson, Gore has more left in the tank with Gore going to the Eagles. He could end up with more rushing yards than Marcus Allen and could reach Tony Dorsett’s rushing total since he has a 3 year contract. There has been 32 year old running rushing over a 1,000 yards before like Walter Payton did.
I believe in the history of the NFL only 4 players have rushed for more than 1000 yards at age 32 or older. Possible Gore may get to 1,000 yards in 2015 at age 32, but even if that happens it will be the end of big seasons, and with only one 2nd team all pro team and five pro bowls I do not see him as a HOFer.
A 5/7 profile for Patrick Willis and he’s likely to retire. I think he played like a Hall of Famer. How long does he wait?
First I do not believe he will stay retired, but if he does a short career will mean a longggggg wait for consideration into the HOF, just ask T Davis.
Comparing a 3x pro bowler(and AP) to a 7x pro bowler and 5x AP is not one I would make. Patrick Willis has will not have to wait 7-8 years to make the finalist. I will guarantee, Joe Namath style , that PW will make the finalist within his first 4 years if he decides to hang them up.
wont have to wait* sorry about that typo
Patrick Willis is probably the best defender who has played from 2007-present, in the NFL . As in (Revis has a case) no defender has been as dominant as Patrick Willis since he entered the league. No J.J. Watt in 2007, 2008, etc.
Terrell Davis had 3 great years and 1 season outside of those with 1,100 yards. Willis has had not 1, not 2, not 3, not 4, but 5 great seasons. I’m not trying to belittle TD, I believe he should be in eventually, but Patrick has a better resume and the eye test confirms it. He(Patrick) turned around the 49ers when you think about it. They averaged 5 wins per season before him after their last playoff appearance. Since: nearly 9 wins per season (8.75). TD had John Elway. Was he good before TD? I’m not saying, I’m just saying.
3/3 vs. 5/7. If I had to choose between Davis and Willis, I’m choosing the latter every time. I thought to myself I was watching a Hall of Famer with Willis.
Brad,
There is an aspect of Terrell Davis that you aren’t looking at carefully. John Elway never won a Super Bowl without Terrell Davis. That offense before Terrell Davis depended on John Elway, but nobody else to speak of for those 3 Super Teams. The last time I check, Quarterbacks can’t win without a good offensive supporting cast.
I remembered Elway in the Super Bowl before Terrell Davis and Shannon Sharpe. John during his first 3 Super Bowls had Sammy Winder and Bobby Humphrey. Sammy was the main ball carrier for 2 of the 3 Super Bowl teams John had in the 1980’s.
The 80’s Broncos had a better supporting cast in Dennis Smith, Karl Mecklenburg and later on Steve Atwater.
While Dick Butkus didn’t play for a long time, the voters look a longevity now days and that is going to hurt Patrick Willis.
There is a couple other names not mentioned in terms of great players with short career not in the hall of fame. There Sterling Sharpe. Sterling Shape had 5 Pro bowls and 3 first All pros despite only having Brett Favre for 3 seasons. Sterling got one of his first team All pros with Don Majkowski as his quarterback in 1989 matter of fact. Sterling Sharpe had 4 seasons over 90 or more receptions and 5 seasons with over 1,000 yards receiving in 7 seasons.
Another big name with a short career was Kenny Easley. Kenny made the Pro Bowl 5 times in 7 seasons along with 3 all pro first teams. Kenny also was on the first team for the NFL all decade 1980’s team. Easley never had serious consideration for the Hall of Fame despite his 5 Pro Bowls.
Patrick Willis has 2 more pro bowls than those players and 2 more first team All pro teams than Sharpe and Easley,and I think that is enough to put him before 7 years unless the voters pull a Chris Hanberger on Patrick Willis.
The fact that Sharpe and Easley have not even made the finalist list after so many years is evidence that Willis will not have it much easier. HOF voters simply are very dismissive of short careers. Willis may move through the semi-finalist list and into the finalist but I think unless he comes back to play a few more years (which is very likely) his wait for election could very well be long, 7+ years or longer. Even if he played another 2-3 years at an average level of performance with no further all pro or probowl selections, he would be far better off in regards to HOF consideration then he stands today if he in fact stays retired with 8 seasons played. And in terms of the history of the game, Willis is no Butkus or Namath.
Easley also had a DPOY. That’s another thing that should be in his favor. If Davis made the cut of the 15 finalists, shouldn’t that indicate that he’s in the right direction? If Davis is elected soon, that should ensure that absolutely Willis gets in one day.
It would be horrible if they gave Willis the Hanburger treatment. Hanburger, like Tingelhoff, should’ve been elected sometime in the 1980s.
A short career still has to be the only reason why Stanfel has been denied twice. It has to be. His resume sure says he should be in.
With 5 first team All Pro selections in 7 complete seasons I can see Willis legitimately deserving the HoF, perhaps after a long wait. Of course I’m on record arguing that Sterling Sharpe should already be in the HoF. He played the same number of full seasons but his well rounded statistical domination was insane, and, going by the eye ball test, the three greatest WRs of the 90s were Irvin, Rice, and Sterling Sharpe, with guys like Carter, Reed, and Brown coming in a level lower.
I don’t know if either actually will make Canton because what Paul said about them dismissing shorter career players lately is true, but if they value consistency they should follow their own Gale Sayers precedent, where only 5 real seasons was considered enough longevity for induction, and even one of those only saw him play 9 games. Sayers was an extremely great player during those 5 years, but he was also inducted first ballot, so presumably a player with at least that longevity who was almost as great deserves induction after a decent wait.
Keeping with 5 elite seasons as the Mendoza line, however, I don’t support Terrell Davis getting in. His longevity as a full time player was just too short.
Not sure if you can compare HOF voting and voters from 1977 to present and future. Seems like today the modern pool is pretty deep with many players from the 1990s to 2000s all decade teams yet to be elected, and even more of those will be on the ballot when Willis appears. Would voters really select him over members of the all decade 2000s and 2010s teams (although there is a chance he makes 2010 decade team) when he has a 8 year long career? Namath was 2x ALF MVP and SB MVP, Butkus 6/8 teams of 60s and 70s, 2x Defensive player of year. Willis will likely get in but will take longer then some would think. Davis just made the finalist list for the first time after being eligible for past 8 years, and still looking at what could end up another 5-7 years before elected (took Reed 8 years, Haley 6, Brown 6 – can see Davis being that long as a finalist, same could happen to Willis).
If Willis is All Decad, how much does that help?
You’re saying making 3 SBs and losing all three is bad?
John Elway would be an easy HOFer if he retired after 1994 with no rings. TD went 6-11 post Elway. Elway lost to Phil Simms, who had one of the best SBs ever for a QB. A Washington team who won 3 SBs in 10 years ; and also lost to a QB named Joe Montana, a WR named Jerry Rice, and a defense that featured a guy named Ronnie Lott. It is a team game, but John Elway would have beaten Falcons without TD honestly. That Falcons team doesn’t come close to Phil Simms’ performance and those other teams. Chris Chandler was not anything special. Yes, better than your average QB but closer to the bottom than top in QBs that have started a SB. Falcons made SB because Gary Anderson missed a FG in OT when he didn’t miss 1 all season.
Brad,
I wasn’t saying John is bad or the Broncos, but Terrell was the player that the Broncos Great enough to win Super Bowls. Case in point is I don’t think Broncos would have beaten the Packers without Terrell Davis.
John Elway to me was a great Quarterback, but one player offenses usually don’t win Super Bowls.
The other problem was the AFC during the 1986 to 1989 period to me usually was weaker than the NFC was. I saw both conferences in that era with the television set on. The Broncos was one man show on Offense that had very good defensive players in Dennis Smith and Karl Mecklenburg.
Brad,
You don’t have to tell me about the 1980’s 49ers and all the great 49er players. I also saw the Super Bowl with Phil Simms back in 1987. Simms was great that one game. Simms to me was a very good quarterback, but he not a Hall of Fame type quarterback. The Giants defense was able to stop the Broncos because of the linebacker core they had and the defense they had. The Broncos didn’t have the offense to answer that Giants defense led by Lawrence Taylor. That Giants defense even gave Montana fits with Montana being taken out of the game with an injury.
I grew up back in the 1980’s thinking Joe Montana was the greatest Quarterback of all time. Even after Montana retired, I thought Joe was measuring stick for Quarterbacks and I thought Joe was better than Brett Favre. Joe didn’t had the strongest arm, but he is someone that you can’t count out coming back from behind like he did against the Eagles in 1989 that had Reggie White, Jerome brown, Seth Joyner, Clyde Simmons and Eric Allen on defense. Brett Favre was a great quarterback, but he made some of the most dumbfounded players I’ve seen and is why I like Montana over Favre. Favre was a player that I just didn’t trust and I think Aaron Rodgers was the more smarter quarterback with the football than Favre was in terms of throwing it. Rodgers doesn’t have the amount of pro bowls or MVPS of Brett, but Aaron spent the first 3 seasons on the bench.
Montana was his first ever super bowl without Jerry Rice, or Roger Craig. That 49er team had a great defense with lott.
You talk about Washington Redskins, but that organization was built on the Offensive Line and Wide Receivers. That offensive system had 3 quarterbacks winning a super Bowl. That system had great Wide Receivers and the hogs.
Brad, you talk about win and loss record. There is one thing was TD, it is very hard to throw that record around with a running back that was breaking down body wise. How do you know if the Broncos would have a winning record with Elway in that time period since John was getting going to be 39 in 1999.
John Elway was a hall of fame player before 1994, his legacy was going to be different. John Elway’s Legacy was going to be like Dan Marino’s to me or Jim Kelly’s.
There also is one thing you forgot the 1998 Broncos. John Elway only played 13 games that season and that organization was depending on Terrell Davis a lot despite having Shannon Sharpe, Rod Smith and Ed McCaffrey.
Colts have had Bob Sanders, Dwight Freeney, and Robert Mathis in primes. They still weren’t that great on defense overall. John Elway wins vs Giants if Phil didn’t have the game of a lifetime. He had as many incomplete passes as TDs. John Elways made the Super Bowl with a RB averaging 3.3 yards per rush in regular season(made the pro bowl somehow) and had 4 rushes and 0 yards in the biggest game that year. And if you think Brett Favre was better than Joe Montana then you need to stop watching football. That is common knowledge like George Herman Ruth is the best baseball player ever by a decent margin.
John Elway didn’t get offensive help in the 80s-early 90s. Those Redskin teams also featured 2 pro bowl QBs and a QB with 4 TDs in 1 SB.
Brad,
You need to look at what made Mark Rypien a Pro Bowl Quarterback twice. I thought the Wide Receiver core made Rypien. Mark had a strong arm, but he was not the caliber of a quarterback as the great Quarterbacks of that era. I am mentioning this because once the posse started to get old, Mark really declined as a quarterback. I grant you that drafting Desmond Howard was a mistake besides the offensive line was getting old.
Joe Thiesmann was the better the quarterback between him and Mark Rypien. Joe Gibbs coached 3 Pro Bowl Quarterbacks in the 1980’s.
The Washington Redskins of the late 1980’s and early 1990’s had one of the most feared trio of Wide Receivers ever in Art Monk, Ricky Sanders, and Gary Clark aka the Posse. Monk and Clark was responsible for Jay Schroeder being a Pro Bowl Quarterback in 1986.
What happened there was 3 great Wide Receivers was on the same team and it hurt individual production as a result. That explains why Gary Clark isn’t looked upon as a hall of fame Wide Receiver and why it took Art Monk a lot of times to make into in the Hall of Fame.
The Washington Redskins that era had a scary passing attack despite the caliber of the quarterback along with the fact they had a great offensive line to have a power running game.
That passing would have been even more scarier if they had Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Joe Montana, John Elway, or Warren Moon in that era.
John Elway actually started to get help in the early 1990’s by the Broncos drafting Shannon Sharpe in the 7th round in 1990. Shannon Sharpe already was starting to come on his own in 1992 by making his first pro bowl. Shannon Sharpe to me was the pass receiving tight end threat before Tony Gonzalez came along.
Brad,
There is a reason why I brought up Joe Montana being the best Quarterback I saw. You made statements that basically was indicating that I wasn’t watching the NFL back in the 1980’s and that wasn’t the case. You indicated that I wasn’t watching the NFL back in the 1980’s by using typing ” a QB named Joe Montana, a WR named Jerry Rice, and a defense that featured a guy named Ronnie Lott”. Anyone that watched the NFL in the 1980’s like myself heard of all 3 players.
I usually wouldn’t say the Wide Receivers made the quarterback because. it is usually the Quarterback that made the Wide Receiver like what happened to Greg Jennings, or a combination of great quarterback and a great Wide Receiver.
There is one thing I want to make clear in my last post. The less mentioned about Ronnie Lott the better since Bart Starr made one the biggest drafting screw ups in Packer History that is as bad as the 1989 draft screw up as a sore spot for me. The Green Bay Packer Scouts actually wanted Ronnie Lott, but Bart Starr wanted to draft a quarterback in the future in Rich Campbell since Lynn Dickey was going to be 32 years old in 1981 with Bart Starr winning out. Rich Campbell turned out to be a huge first round draft bust for the Green Bay Packers and the defense for the Packers in 1983 was why Bart Starr got fired as a head coach. Neil Lomax was the best Quarterback of that draft, but too bad he had a bad hip that shortened his career.
That 1981 draft was loaded with talent like the top of the 1989 draft was and explains why the Packers only made the playoffs twice from 1968 to 1991. Out of the first 8 draft picks of the 1981 draft, the Packers drafted the only player that didn’t make the pro bowl once in Rich Campbell.
The draft class besides Neil Lomax, George Rogers, Kenny Easley, Freeman Mcneil, E.J. Junior, Munoz, Hough Green, Lawrence Taylor and Ronnie Lott had Mike Singletary, Howie Long, Ricky Jackson, Russ Grimm, Handford Dixon, Brian Holloway, Cris Collinsworth, Eric Wright and Carlton Williamson.
Eric Wright, Carlton Williamson had big roles why the 49ers won their first 2 Super Bowls in the 1980’s since they were drafted in the same class as Ronnie Lott.
I never said Mark was great, but he was definitely good in prime. I forgot about Jay, sorry. But, I was referring to the SB winning ones. Shannon was but John Mackey was as well. He wasn’t used a lot. It was a run first league then. In beginning John was incredible but then Lenny Moore became healthy again; so he had to go back to blocking for him and other decent backs. But, when he caught and trucked opponents like in Madden, he was as hard to take down as anyone. And he was a good blocker. You don’t see that much in TEs anymore.
Back to John. He did get Shannon Sharpe in early 1990s but he did go to 3 SBs before him. And Marino only went to 1 for entire career. If John retired in 1994, he would have a “better” legacy than Marino. I hate saying one is better than other(they are all all time greats) but Marino wasn’t the runner John was and Dan , sure was a better thrower, but he couldn’t run well at all in general. Kind of like Peyton, Brady(shows flashes of John, but very seldom). But, they make up for it in passing. I give great value to running ability. It’s not everything but it is an attribute that helps win games.
Speaking of 1981 draft, Deron Cherry wasn’t draft. From RU. It wasn’t a college that pumped out pros like it is now. To me, he should be considered for senior nominee one day and be elected as Knights first HOFer. Thoughts everyone?
I never could figure out why Deron Cherry hasn’t made the finalist ballot of the Pro Football Hall of Fame outside of bias against the safety position. Cherry has some years to wait like Joey Browner and Dennis Smith does before the Senior Committee can pick them. Those 3 safeties are going to Senior Committee Candidates to an ever growing group. Browner and Dennis smith have very good cases for the hall of fame.
Joey browner hasn’t been a finalist yet as a safety despite having 6 pro bowls, 3 all pro first team, and 2nd team of the 1980’s NFL decade team like Deron Cherry and Norlan Cromwell.
Kenny Easley is now one the players that the Senior Committee could pick and is of the safeties along with Donnie Shell, Johnny Robinson, Cliff Harris, Eddie Meador, Norlan Cromwell and Jake Scott.
Johnny Robinson is an incredibly big snub. He was a decent offensive player. He switched to Safety. Reels all 6 APs, 2 of those in NFL. If he played in the 30s-40s he would play both ways and would be in.
Brady,
I agree that running is a great thing to have for a Quarterback because of the amount of years I seen that except when it for a quarterback like Michael Vick. My problem with Michael Vick was he was not that accurate of a Quarterback although I thought he was a great athlete with the Falcons unlike Steve Young. Elway was way better than Vick as a passer.
Steve Young to me was a great mobile Quarterback, but he was a great passer also. That is what I look for in a mobile quarterback.
Joe Montana was the first quarterback for me in terms of showing how being a mobile quarterback helps extending plays. Montana could run, but he was no Randell Cunningham or Steve Young. What Joe did with his mobility impressed me. While Fran Tarkenton, Otto Graham, and Roger Staubach were mobile Quarterbacks, they were before me time unlike Montana.
What Joe did was buying himself time in the pocket although he could run and is one the reasons Joe was a great Quarterback. The best way to put is like Don Majkowski showed during the 1989 season with him rushing for 358 yards and this was before Don lost arm strength due to a torn rotator cuff. Don had a bad offensive line, but his mobility was able to buy him time to run or throw to a wide open passing target that helped him lead the league in passing yards that season The Packers were only game away from the playoffs in 1989 because of Don’s mobility.
Brett Favre in the 1990’s was mobile by able to rush over 100 yards 8 times including 2 times over 200 yards. Brett wasn’t fast, but he was mobile enough to buy time outside of the pocket to get someone open. The problem with Brett doing that was his decision making unlike Aaron Rodgers. Brett was exciting to watch when he got out of the pocket like he did against Detroit in the 1993 playoffs by moving out of the pocket and throw a game winning touchdown pass to Sterling Sharpe, but he also was prone to do stupid throws out of the pocket also for interceptions.
Michael Vick would be a HOF contender if he didn’t get hurt. He has missed (not including when he went to jail) 56 games. Say he averaged 40 yards(just below his career average. in prime he was averaging more yards per game) , he would amass 2,200+ more rushing yards. Bringing his total to realistically 8,000 rushing yards. And his passing close to 30,000 yards. He would have a profile around 0/7/none but counting numbers are nothing to ignore as well. We use stats for a reason.
Aaron Rodgers might be the best player to ever play the QB position when he retires. I don’t measure titles are everything like a lot do in the media and other places. He is the opposite of Brett in terms of decision making. Not that Brett never made great plays. He put up 508 TD’s for a reason. Also put up 336 ints and I believe 31 pick sixes for another reasons as well. He will go in first ballot with flying colors next year, but Aaron is on another level past 4 years as a whole.
139 TDs-25 ints? That is video game numbers.
If Johnny Robinson played in the NFL and not the AFL, he’d have been in decades ago as he should have been.
Unless he wins four SBs or retires will all the career passing numbers, going to be hard for Rodgers to top the likes of Brady, Manning, Montana and a few other QBs, as the best QB of all time.
While I agree Aaron Rodgers is a way better decision marker than Brett Favre, I don’t know about being the best Quarterback in NFL History. If we discussing today’s era of the NFL only, Aaron Rodgers is the best Quarterback out there. Aaron has everything that I want as out of a Quarterback such as great passing on the running, rarely makes mistakes throwing the football, and is mobile on his feet.
My problem isn’t Aaron’s stats, but it is the era. His era is hard to compare to Joe Montana’s. Back when Joe Montana played, the league didn’t to cater as much passing as it does know in terms of NFL rules. Case in point is in 1989. Joe Montana completed over 70 percent of his passes in 1989 when the league average was 55.8 percent and in 2014 the completion percentage league wide was 62.6 percent. The increase in accuracy league wide isn’t all on the quarterback, but the rules in the NFL
It is very possible that a lot of Quarterbacks in the past actually wouldn’t throw the amount of interception in today’s game as they did in their playing days because of how the league changed in passing rules. This would be the same issue with comparing Unitas to Rodgers, or Sonny Jurgensen to Rodgers.
Hey all–we’ve started a Patrick Willis Hall of Fame discussion/poll at https://www.zoneblitz.com/2015/03/10/patrick-willis-hall-famer/. Would love to get your opinions.
Nick Mangold has a 3/6/possibly 2010’s all decade team honors. Is he on pace for HOF? Not a lot of centers in his era that have his APs and Pro Bowls.
He would have to realistically amp it up. If it took decades for Tingelhoff to get in and if Mawae has to wait, I can’t see Mangold getting tons of love at the moment.
There were a lot of great centers during Mick’s time. Jim Langer, Jim Otto. And voters don’t like centers. Nick can retire as a 4/9/10s. That isn’t unrealistic. He is still a top 1-2 center in league. Also he had Offensive Rookie of the Year consideration. I can see him retiring close to 10 pro bowls if not get to 10 with 1 more 1st team All Pro.
Otto and Langer are 2 of the top 10 if not top 6-7 centers ever. Not fair for Mick.
Patrick Willis is now 2020 eligible. If not signed, free agents Reggie Wayne, Dwight Freeney, and Lance Briggs might join him.
I”ce got Nick Mangold at 4/6/10s? (2009, 2010 multiple, 2011 Sporting News, 2014 Pro Football Focus) which is the best for a post-Mawae center. Might be enough but hard to say.
Kevin Mawae is by far the best center to play in the 00s(and 1 of the top 3-4 to play in the 90s).. I see him getting in within next 6 years. Nick Mangold could follow suit like Mike Webster and Dermontti Dawson. Lance Briggs is a fringe HOFer. 2/7/none isn’t strong but it warrants consideration. He needs another 2 pro bowls to be in for sure(not first ballot but good enough to get in on one of the first 10 ballots).
Who from the semifinalists will make it to the finalists next year? Edgerrin James? Issac Bruce?
I can see those two and Mawae.
2007 Draft is shaping to be a great one. It may not be as deep as others but the top 6 Pro Bowlers are the league’s best at their positions for years at 1 point. 5 are sure HOFers in Joe Thomas,Darrelle Revis, Adrian Peterson, Calvin Johnson, and Patrick Willis. Marshal Yanda(3/4) has a shot for HOF if he sustains his playing level. Eric Weddle (3/3) has an outside shot. Guys like Ryan Kalil(1/4), Joe Staley(1/4) have had good careers that go unnoticed. 32 total Pro Bowlers, 18 with 2 or more, 6 with 5 or more, 14 different players with 1 or more first team AP. It is certainly one of the best so far for the 2000s. 2003 and 2001 are probably the 2 best for the 2000s thus far.
Once past Derrick Brooks (6/11/00s) and Demarcus Ware (4/8/00s), Lance Briggs (2/7/none) looks pretty competitive for OLBs of the last 15 years, along with Terrell Suggs (1/6/10s?), John Abraham (3/5/none and a ton of sacks), and maybe Joey Porter (2/4/00s).
Anything 3/5 or above gets you in the discussion, without at least those it is very hard unless you have some MVPs, SBs or big season/career numbers. But even at 3/5 there is no assurance of when and if a player gets elected as to this day there are players from the 50s 60s 70s and even 80s yet to get in the HOF with those numbers or better. Heck there are even 1st team all decade team members from those decades that are not in!
Terrell Suggs is a HOFer as is. He had a pro bowl type rookie year. He didn’t get a lot of love because he only started 1 game. Still got 12 sacks and 5 forced fumbles. He pro bowled his 2nd year in 2004 and pro bowled last in 2013. So he has been playing at a high level past decade overall. DROY and DPOY is very rare. He also has a SB ring.He would have to wait for a while as is but he would eventually get in. T-Sizzle has shown no signs of retiring anytime soon. He could play another 3-4 seasons, average about 9 per season, get close to 130-140, 1 more pro bowl. He would be on his way to Canton.
Another 2020 eligible player if not re-signed would be Kevin Williams.
Kevin Williams has PED use suspensions and accusations hovering over him. Think he will be given the Sammy Sosa; Barry Bonds like treatment ?
The PFHoF voters don’t thus far seem concerned about PED use. We’ll see.
Brad,
I have a hard time seeing the voters giving Kevin Williams the Sosa treatment due to peds due to the double standard the voters would be doing. My reasoning is the voters already elected Football Players and head coach that were linked with peds into the Pro Football Hall of Fame unless they want to kick people out of the Hall of Fame starting with players and coaches in the 1960’s.
The 1963 Chargers actually were the first Pro Football team to be known for its Ped use.
Hall of Fame Head Coach Sid Gillman and his staff including Chuck Noll actually handed out out Dianabol.to their own players for the 1963 season including Pro Football Hall of Fame player Ron Mix. Sid Gillman’s 1963 Chargers matter of fact won the AFL Championship by players using peds. Dianabol is an anabolic steroid. The coaches of the chargers matter of fact encouraged linemen to take steroids.
The Chargers strength coach that year matter of fact is known as the father of Steroids in professional football and his name is Alvin Roy.
That brings up the fact that I don’t think voters want to guess how many 1960’s and 1970’s players that took peds are in the Hall of Fame and head coaches that encouraged ped use and take them out of canton if they don’t allow Kevin Williams in due to Ped use.
I hope no one thinks I am saying the Chargers are the only team with people in the hall of fame with ped use when that isn’t the case since ped use was well known in the NFL in the 1960’s and 1970’s at least.
I think would be opening a can of worms if Kevin Williams wouldn’t be getting in due to his past Ped use since used the 1963 Chargers as an example.
So why isn’t Mark Gastineau not in HOF or at least been named a finalist?
Roger,
I had nothing to with Steroids in terms of Mark Gastineau not even being a finalist. Mark has a lot of major things against him by the voters.
Based on what I read, Mark robbed the voters the wrong way and some voters thought he was too one dimensional. Right now now, Simeon Rice hasn’t been a finalist because of his one dimensional label and that proves voters look different elements of a Defensive ends game outside of pass rushing.
The other problem with Mark is the voters thought his teammate Joe Klecko was the better player and was the heart of the New York Sack Exchange.
I know for a fact Dr. Z pushed for Joe Klecko more than Mark Gastineau. Dr. Z’s argument when he was a voter was Joe Klecko made the Pro Bowl at 3 different positions in the defensive line. That also is the same argument current Hall of Fame voter Peter King has for Klecko.
Joe’s pass rushing stats was hurt by Sacks not being recorded before 1982 by the league and the fact he didn’t stay at one position long. Joe actually league the league in sacks in 1981 with 20.5 sacks, but the league didn’t officially record them.
The Joe Klecko augment is a very strong one on why Mark Gastineau isn’t a finalist. When the voters didn’t vote for the player they thought was the best player on the defensive line of the New York Jets in Joe Klecko, it means Mark shouldn’t get in before Joe does.
What Packerfan said. Also, there are no shortage of self-important sportswriters who publicly whine about PED use by baseball players up for BBHoF consideration. But no one has said a peep re football players and the PFHoF.
Why not both in the HOF?
There is no problem with both players getting in, but not at once. usually voters don’t select teammates on the same ballot in the same year since the players in question played for a well known Defensive line from a nickname stand point.
You dealing with the senior committee for Klecko and Gastineau for putting them on the ballot. It is a guessing game at this point at what 2 players the senior committee chooses for the 2016 class. I don’t think Mark has been considered for the Senior Committee in terms of considering his name to go nominated on a ballot, but there has been people pushing to Klecko. I don’t think Klecko and Gastineau are favorites for being nominated by the Senior Committee for the 2016 Hall of Fame class.
Klecko not being in before the senior committee is a combination of things. Klecko does not have official sack total due to his best sack years before the NFL recorded them in the 20.5 sacks in 1981 that he got Defensive player of the year. Klecko being moved around so much in the defensive line actually hurts him despite being the only defensive men with a pro bowl in 3 different defensive line positions.
I did know Klecko went to jail in 1993 for 3 months for perjury for insurance fraud, but how it affected him by the voters isn’t something I don’t know. The crime was not the same level as Darren Sharper did.
Philip Rivers might be on the move soon. He would probably want to go to a contender. As a Jet fan I hope they trade for him. They would be SB contenders for at least 1-2 years(if he were to sign long term too). What are his HOF chances if he plays for a contender and wins 1 SB?
The challenge for Klecko and Gastineau is that are now in the very deep seniors pool and regardless whatever case you can make for either or both the reality is that there are perhaps at least 10-15 other senior candidates ahead of them at this point, leaving them a long way even for some consideration by the seniors committee.
In terms of chances for a SB win and the HOF seems to me that Rivers is better off staying in San Diego then end up with the Jets. Although I suppose it is possible he could have a better chance with another team I doubt that would be the case for the Jets who do not strike me as a team one quality QB away from the SB, especially within the AFC East.
Patriots lost Vince Wilfork and Darrelle Revis and his island moving hurts Pats defense and helps Jets that much more. Getting Al-Cro-Traz back and Buster Skrine as the 3rd corner, with that pass rush from Sheldon Richardson, Muhammad Wilkerson, and Quinton Coples; David Harris and Demario Davis at LBs, they have a very scary defense. With Rivers at QB throwing to Brandon Marshall, Eric Decker, Jeremy Kerley, Jace Amaro and handing off to Chris Ivory and Bilal Powell; they can challenge for division. 11-12 wins might be enough to win it. Jets lost by a grand total of 3 points in 2 games vs Pats this past season without Revis, Cro, Marshall, Skrine, etc.
Dolphins and Bills are not a threat like Jets are. 1999(Bills) and 2008 (Fins) were last playoff appearances. The Ndamukong Suh signing will eat up their salary long term. Bills with LeSean McCoy too. Jets had so much $ to spend and they spent it very wisely.
Bringing Rivers to the Jets would have an impact in 2015 and perhaps 2016, the cap space Bills and Dolphins spent will have an impact in later years, so for at least the next two years they can still compete. I would actually place all three of the teams at the same level, needing QB and a few very good drafts to put them in position to complete at SB level. Still not sure why SD would consider trading Rivers as they are closer then the Jets and have no ready QB to replace him and why any time would trade for a player with only one year left on contract and FA in 2016.
If Marcus Mariota is at 6 teams like the Saints, Chargers, and possibly others would consider Jets 6th pick, future 1st round and 2nd rounds.
From the pfraforum site:
Last HoF eligible years for some borderline worthies
2016: Deron Cherry
2017: Joey Browner
2018: Joe Jacoby, Roger Craig
2019: Karl Mecklenburg, Mike Kenn, Sterling Sharpe
2021: Nick Lowery
2022: Sam Mills, Steve Tasker
2023: Henry Ellard, Albert Lewis
2024: Steve Atwater
2026: Steve Wisniewski, Leroy Butler
2027: Tony Boselli
2029: Darren Woodson, Gary Anderson
2032: Bryant Young
None except Craig have been finalists as far as I remember, but several have been semifinalists. Unless a sudden groundswell builds for Jacoby or Mecklenburg, I think all of the players eligible through 2019 drop to the Senior pool. There’s still time left for the rest and it’s possible a few might sneak in next decade.
I’m lukewarm regarding some of these folks, but many have decent arguments.
Compared to the recent 25 semi-finalists and 15 finalists – plus those new candidates likely to appear on those lists in the next several years, I can not see anyone there that I would strongly advocate for election over the others already and will be finalists. I concur that a few probably deserve slots as a semi-finalist but doubt any would get further in the process. With the exception of a few candidates, the recent and future semi-finalists is already pretty strong, and the upcoming finalists better than those on this list. Certainly others will disagree but personally I have little passion for debating marginal candidates who will not get elected anyways, just to get them into the semi-finalist list.
My thoughts on these folks.
I’m definitely in favor of Sharpe for the Hall. He, Mac Speedie, and Del Shofner strike me as comparable, big peak but short career guys which HoF voters don’t often elect. Sharpe (3/5/none) and Speedie (6/2/40s) played for seven years. Shofner (5/5/60s) played 11 years but only seven as a full time WR — he spent one year as a DB, another primarily as a punter (did this for three seasons), and finished with two very shortened (probably injury plagued) years. I think they all belong in.
Re Jacoby (profile 3/4/80s), I don’t see a HoF argument for him that doesn’t equally apply to Mike Kenn (3/5/none), Marvin Powell (3/5/none), or Leon Gray (3/4/none), unless there’s a compelling film study argument in his favor. Far as I can tell, the only difference is Jacoby’s being on an o-line with a cool nickname and an all-decade team selection that may or may not have a solid foundation. I say if Jacoby belongs, they all belong.
Re Craig, he has a profile of 1/4/80s and really has pretty ordinary stats beyond his four best seasons. I’m unsure how significant the 1000/1000 argument is given that he was hardly the first RB to excel at pass catching (Frank Gifford, Lenny Moore, Jim Brown). Also, Craig’s dual-nature stats suffer in comparison to those of Marshall Faulk and Rickey Watters. And the fact that RBs are arguably the most over-represented position in the HoF doesn’t help.
A good argument for some of these folks is the lack of position representation. That goes for WRs (Sharpe, Ellard), safeties (Cherry, Browner, Butler, Atwater, Woodson), and kickers (Anderson, Lowery). If not mistaken, Ronnie Lott is the only safety in the HoF who played during the 80s-90s.
Rupert Patrick’s kicker study shows Groza, Stenerud, M. Andersen, Lowery, and G. Anderson clumped together as the top five all-time in FG pct. adjusted for era (with no. 6 and following notably further behind). Groza and Stenerud are in and Andersen probably will get in down the road.
Historically, OLBs have been under-represented in comparison to MLBs, but the reverse is true for the 80s-90s (only Harry Carson and Mike Singletary are in), so I’m in favor of Mecklenburg and Mills to counterbalance.
Am more on the fence with some others. Albert Lewis does not have a great honors profile (2/4/none), but he reportedly looks strong via film study and might merit a “Ray Nitschke exception.” Same may be true for Bryant Young (2/4/90s). Steve Wisniewski’s profile of 5/8/90s is really good but his reputation for flagrantly dirty play is troubling. Not quite sure if Tony Boselli merits the Gale Sayers treatment or not.
I am one of the people that supports Joey Browner. Out of the Vikings not in the Hall of Fame from the 1980’s, I though him and Steve Jordan need a closer look for the Hall of Fame. The only problems Steve Jordan had was the lack touchdown receptions and his prime was when Winslow, Christensen, and Newsome were retiring or past their prime.
498 receptions for a tight end during from 1982 to 1984 is a great state out that position in that era. The only tight Ends that had more receptions than Steve Jordan at the time he retired was Kellen Winslow Sr. and Ozzie Newsome.
I thought one of the reasons Joey Browner isn’t in the Hall of fame is due to the Vikings underachieved in the late 1980’s and early 1990’s based on the talent they had. They already had 3 hall of fame players that were in their prime back in the late 1980’s to 1991 without me counting Cris Carter and John Randle. Cris Carter and John Randle was not in the prime yet when Joey Browner was in his final season as Viking in 1991.
Joey Browner and Steve Jordan making it 5 players from the late 1980’s to 1991 is a lot out of that era of Vikings. That era of Vikings had a scary defensive lineman with all 4 defensive lineman being pass rushing threat in Doleman, Millard, Henry Thomas and Noga. Millard would have been a hall of fame defensive tackle if it wasn’t for injuries.
The late 1980’s Viking teams was a talent bunch if you include Carl Lee, and Anthony Carter besides Joey Browner, Harry Thomas, Millard, and Steve Jordan besides the 3 hall of fame players in their prime in that era. That era of Viking teams made the mistake of overrating Wade Wilson and is why the infamous Herschel Walker happened. The 1989 Vikings needed a quarterback and running back. The other problem was Rich Gannon of the Vikings was not the Rich Gannon of the Oakland Raiders.
The case for Albert Lewis is something you have to look at if you are a fan of special teams. Albert Lewis was a great kick blocker in his era with him having 11 blocked kicks with the Chiefs since being a very good Cornerback isn’t enough. The problem with Lewis could be the fact he actually played on a very good secondary that also had Deron Cherry and Kevin Ross. Deron actually was a very corner, b
Henry Ellard is an interesting case because he played for a long time, but his stats actually hurt by a couple factors.
Henry Ellard doesn’t have the amount of the all pro or pro bowl you want or the touchdowns despite his long career. I thought his stats were hurt by him being a great punt returner early in his career on a team that was focused on giving the ball to Eric Dickerson without a quarterback to speak of before Dickerson was traded. The Quarterbacks Henry played with strengthens Henry’s Hall of Fame case to me besides being on a run first team in the Eric Dickerson era.
Troy Polamalu is now retired. I think he is going to be inducted into the Hall of fame at some point. The amount of All pro teams and being on the all 2000’s 2nd all decade team is plus.
His problem for getting in is the amount of players from the safety position is the voters willing to induct and only having 32 interceptions. I mentioned interceptions because Steve Atwater, John lynch isn’t inducted yet into canton. Low interception career total has hurt those 2 along with Cliff Harris. Cliff Harris had 29 interceptions.
I the amount of safety’s in Troy’s that the voters are willing to induct is going to be a problem. I am saying that because he played in a time that had Ed Reed, Brian Dawkins, and John Lynch. I mention John Lynch due to him playing 5 years at the same time as Troy did.
Polamalu should have little trouble getting elected with a strong combination of All Pros, DPOTY, high media profile, team success and All Decade selection that appeals to voters. He was a Strong Safety and the Steelers loved using him close to the line of scrimmage so a low Interception total won’t really hurt him as that was never his game.
If all decade Safeties from the 1960s, 70s, 80s and 90s are still not elected, I hold out little chance for those from the 2000s and beyond – including Polamalu and Reed – to be elected without a significant waiting period as a semi-finalists and finalist. Unless there is a fundamental shift in how HOF voters view the safety position and start treating them as equal and just as deserving as other positions. Polamalu and Reed may in fact be very deserving HOFers, but unlike how some people are stating today that they are slam dunk or 1st yer eligible selections, it is not going to be that easy for quick for their elections.
Ed Reed is marching into Canton, probably first ballot. Today’s selection Commitee looks vastly different to those that snubbed the safety position in the past so I don’t think it’s fair to compare. Today’s panel are doing a much better job.
I am remain uncertain that Reed will be marching right in (unless he buys a visitors ticket). Even with the current HOF voter panels the safety position does not yet appear to be making much ground towards election. Perhaps I will be wrong, but as the ballot and then list of finalists gets better and better, with many deserving players from other positions, the safety anti-bias will still need to be broken to put Reed in over others.
I didn’t see this post before the other one. Ed Reed is on par with Ronnie Lott as far as impact in game. Ed Reed was a big hitter, ball hawker like no other, and brought it in playoffs and much more. Too bad he wasn’t born 3-4 years before so he could have been apart of the 2000 team. They would be a defense on par with 85 Bears.
April 13th MMQB Peter King views on HOF Safety issue…
http://mmqb.si.com/2015/04/13/troy-polamalu-retires-hall-of-fame-nfl/
and I found this interesting…….
“When the NFL has its 100th season in 2019, Gosselin suggests the Hall should have an amnesty year, in effect. Elect 10 players from the pool of Senior candidates, the old timers whose cases have been drydocked for years. And elect 10 players from the modern pool. The one-time 20-man class would certainly clear up a growing logjam. I’m not sure it’s the best idea, but I am in favor of getting a slew of Mick Tingelhoffs considered rather than have them needlessly wait for years, or decades, to hear their names called. Twenty sounds like too many to me, but the concept Gossellin suggests has merit.”
The speeches would last about a week. :-)
I agree with Gosselin’s concept based on merit, but the amount of people is the issue for one class. My concern with the 20 is speeches and the depth of the modern pool.
What I think should be done is 14 or 16 people inducted into the Hall of Fame. Half of the people would be from the modern pool and the other half in the Senior and Contributor pools.
I want the Modern pool that year to have 7 or 8 due to a couple things. The amount is likely to put 1 or 2 coaches in the Hall of fame. That would open up those spots up. It also would cut the logjam of 1 positions from the modern pool side.
At least it means Gosselin may be feeling some pressure.
Jerry Kramer, Johnny Robinson, Jim Tyrer, and Chuck Howley, are 4 names that deserve to be in right away.
A double Class of 16 in 2019 would be great. 8 Seniors and 8 Modern Era.
I mentioned a similar idea a few years ago – elect a special larger class of seniors – when the HOF had its 50th anniversary, but the elections for that year ended up following usual process with no special recognition in reflected in the voting of that class.
Jahri Evans has a strong case already built (4/6/shoe-in 10s). His pro bowls and APs are all past 6 years. I expect him to make 3-4 more Pro Bowls. I can see him getting in first ballot if he returns to his AP level. He is already a HOFer. He would have to wait a long time if he were to retire now. I see him playing at least another 4-5 years.
Evans is off to a great start but Guards are another under appreciated position by HOF voters, so first ballot election may not be in the cards.
I remember about a year ago I brought up Shaun Alexander and someone or people said they didn’t think he should be in. The top Rushing TD leaders in order starting with 1st: Emmitt Smith, LaDainian Tomlinson, Marcus Allen, Walter Payton, Jim Brown, John Riggins, Marshall Faulk, Shaun Alexander, Barry Sanders, Franco Harris, Jerome Bettis, Curtis Martin, Eric Dickerson, Adrian Peterson. How can you justify not inducting Shaun?
Jahri Evans won’t be first ballot but I definitely think he gets in assuming he plays 10-plus years. His 4/6/10s? profile is already better than any guard since Alan Faneca. He’ll wait likely 4-5 years and maybe a little longer.
Re Alexander, HoF voters tend to value compilers and barring a Sayers/Davis peak the voters tend to not go for RBs with under 12,000 lifetime rushing yards. Alexander doesn’t quite have a Sayers level peak and doesn’t have sufficient longevity. I wouldn’t bet the rent he gets in, though one never knows.
Re recent RBs, it’ll be interesting to see where Frank Gore and Steven Jackson end up in lifetime rush yards. Both are getting towards 12,000 yards but are slowing down. Am thinking both have a shot if they get past 12K. Adrian Peterson has a huge peak and is already approaching 11,000 yards all time — he probably gets in, character issues or not.
Brad,
Shaun Alexander has 2 things against for the Hall of fame. The short prime is mentioned. Back when Shaun was playing, the media though. Walter Jones and Steve Hutchinson made Shaun Alexander. Walter Jones is in the Hall of Fame and Steve Hutchinson is going to be once he’s eligible.
The media at the time pointed Shaun wasn’t the same player after Steve Hutchinson left the Seahawks in free agency for the Vikings.
Curtis Martin has Kevin Mawae and other decent offensive linemen. Both are/will get in. Alexanders is the lone guy in the top Rushing TD leaders to not be in the HOF. John Henry Johnson is the only one I can think of not to have a first team AP honor as far as RBs. Steven Jackson and Frank Gore have 3 2nd team APs, SA has 2 1st team APs with all decade honors. I like them all but, I would rather put in Alexander over those two.
had*….5 year peak for Alexander of 16 or more TDs each season(with 2 seasons of 20 or more) is darn close to a Gale Sayers peak.
An issue: even if one assumes Alexander and Sayers have equivalent peaks adjusted for era, Sayers has monster KR numbers Alexander doesn’t have.
Once LT and EJ get into the HOF (RBs from the 2000s decade team) I am not so sure the prospects for other RBs from that era are very promising. Looks like as the era of the big number single RB has passed, also has the HOF consideration of many of those players from post 2000. I see a long extended wait for Alexander, Gore and Jackson (and I think the last two are done producing any big numbers to help their cases) and when the top players, especially QBs and WRs from 2000s hit the ballot in the next several years the RB position will be even more devalued by HOF voters as they reflect on the passing era since 2000 and gradual devalue of the RB position that has started over the last decade or so.
I don’t see Steven Jackson nor Frank Gore getting in over someone who has: All decade honors, MVP, and at least 1 first team AP, which those do not have. I like SJ over FG. Steven still needs more to get in. He needs to separate from Fred Taylor. He does need to get to 12,000 to even put up a case. As of now it would probably have to take a very very weak class. Not degrading Steven.
Shaun Alexander could get in via Senior Nominee. They will look back at his career when RBs do not get 100+ TDs Like they did with Emmitt Smith,, LT, Marshall Faulk,and Shaun(AP could do it but he is an all time great already.). They may be last to get 100 rushing TDs in a long time. I don’t see Curtis Martin’s 14,101 rushing yards being a threat of moving to 5th all time anytime soon as well. Is John Abraham returning for the 2015 season? It says he is according to http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/John_Abraham_%28American_football%29#Arizona_Cardinals
If he does and gets 5-6 sacks he could help his HOF chances a lot. Not just because it is an increase, but it furthers his sack total closer to top 5 ever. He is already in top 10.
Neither Jackson nor Gore are likely getting in unless they surpass 12,000 rushing yards lifetime — they’ll look a lot like Fred Taylor and Corey Dillon, neither of whom are likely to be elected, either. But they might make the all-10s team, hard to say.
Adrian Peterson is a lock as of now for a spot at RB on 2010’s all decade team. 1/3 with a 2k season( 2nd most ever) trumps any RB to play in this decade. I’d take Marshawn Lynch and Arian Foster over Steven and Gore.
Brad,
5 or 6 more sacks from John Abraham gets this season really doesn’t change his odds much as if he improves his 5 pro bowls and 2 first time all pro teams.
I am bring bringing this up because Kevin Greene isn’t in the Pro Football hall of Fame yet despite his 160 sacks along with his other accolades.
What voters are going to look at is where he stacks up in his own era. The players from John Abraham’s era as Pass rushers really aren’t as strong from sack total standpoint compared to the era that had Reggie White, Bruce Smith, Kevin Greene, and Chris Doleman. Jared Allen and Demarcus Ware might have a shot to change that might be the 2 from John Abraham’s era to go pass Chris Doleman in sacks.
John Abraham doesn’t have the Pro Bowls as Peppers and Freeney, but he has more sacks than them. You can put Demarcus Ware and Jared Allen in the same era for feared pass rushers.
John Abraham played some parts of his career at the same time as Michael Strahan, Strahan to me is in between player from the Reggie White and other Pass rushers from the 1980’s/1990’s era and the era of John Abraham aka 2000’s to mid 2010’s decade since Strahan joined the league 1993 and retired after 2007 season.
Jason Taylor is closer to the John Abraham era to me than Strahan is. Jared Allen has a chance of getting pass Chris Doleman in Sacks. I think Demarcus Ware could end up higher in sacks than Jarred Allen, John Abraham are going to end up depending on his health since Jared Allen is the decline more than Ware is.
I didn’t mention J.J. Watt in the John Abraham time period for a reason. Watt is going to play way more after Abraham since I don’t think Abraham is going to play after this season due to John being 37. John Abraham and Watt also didn’t play in their primes at the same time in a lot of seasons either since I’m assuming John’s numbers will not be in 9 to 13 sack range.this coming season.
What John has going for him is his strip sack ability. 47 Forced Fumbles is a ton.
I would like to know why haven’t Drew Pearson been nominated for the Hall of Fame.
He is known as Mr. Clutch, caught the Hail Mary Pass and how did micheal irvin get in before him? . You have Roger Staubach in and Drew was his go guy? As a matter of fact it was Staubach, Pearson, Dorsett. they was the 1st trio. But u have Irvin, Smith, Aikman in as a trio. Lynn swan is in and he use to compete against Pearson. Come on the football players who played in the 60’s & 70’s were the BEST!!!!! Who are making these votes?
I’m a lady and I love football!!!! I nominate DREW PEARSON!!!!
Also Too Tall Ed Jones should be in as a Defensive Tackle!
Drew Pearson is only eligible as a Senior candidate now, and he’s in a crowded pool of worthies. For what it’s worth, I think he belongs in, and my guess is that most folks who frequent this forum think so as well. But he’s got a lot of WR Senior company (Mac Speedie, Billy Howton, Billy Wilson, Del Shofner, Harold Jackson, Harold Carmichael, Cliff Branch).
Am not especially taken with a HoF argument for Too Tall Jones when players like Gene Brito, L.C. Greenwood, and Mark Gastineau have better postseason honors profiles and are still not in.
What do folks think about this suggestion from PFHOF voter Rick Gosselin?
“Too many quality candidates are falling through the cracks without their careers ever being discussed and judged as Canton worthy. There are 91 NFL all-decade position players through the 1990s currently not enshrined in Canton — and 81 of them have never even been discussed as finalists.”
“There’s a simple solution to this problem. If a player is selected to an all-decade team, he should be automatically granted a spot on the list of 25 semifinalists in his first year of eligibility. That will, in the least, put his name before the committee and remind the 46 voters that this was once a great player deserving of Hall-of-Fame consideration.”
http://www.talkoffamenetwork.com/a-flaw-in-the-hof-process-that-needs-to-be-fixed/
I am not sure I like this. It takes away from those who didn’t make it like a Curtis Martin, who is in, but was not named to an ADT, because he played in mid 90s and early 2000s. I say expand the # of slots for inductees.
There is a flaw in handling all decade player for the Hall of Fame. The problem is I have is voters in the past put players into all decade teams that had no business being on there.
Mel Blount is a great player and is in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, but he shouldn’t been on the 1st team all 1980’s decade team despite the fact Mel retired in 1983. The voters in the past did similar stuff.
The fact John Anderson was named on the2nd team all 1980’s all decade brings up a problem about the voters or the quality of the players from that position during that decade.
I do feel there needs to be more all decade team players that need to be looked at in terms of the first team of the all decade team, but the 2nd team needs to be a case by case thing. The problem lies in the 2nd all decade team because some of the positions are not that strong enough to be a top 25 semi finalist considered a hall of Fame spot like Carl Banks being a 2nd team all 1980’s decade team isn’t a good idea.
Carl Banks was a great player, but he only made the pro bowl once and the all pro team once.
If the all decade teams were flawless, that would be a good idea. But there’s no reason anyone should be considering John Anderson, Carnell Lake, Levon Kirkland, Whizzer White, Al Blozis, Alan Ameche, Bobby Walston, Larry Morris, Howad Mudd, Dave Butz, John David Crow, Keith Millard, Louis Wright, Frank Minnifield, Harvey Martin, Jimbo Covert, Bill Fralic, Carl Banks, Mark Stepnoski, or Olin Kreutz, among others, for the HoF. And the point about great players not on all decade teams because they played half in one decade and half in another (Jim Patton, Curtis Martin, for two) is a great issue to bring up.
Speaking of John David Crow. I have always been a supporter of his. 2/4/60s isn’t strong to say the least, but he had 74 total TDs, which I believe puts him in top 10 or so when he retired and only behind really good names such as Don Hutson. Lenny Moore, and Frank Gifford to name a few. He was also a decent passer.He had an 80.6 career passer rating., for back then that was pretty darn good. Small sample size, but even still, he was a versatile player. As for his body of work, I think he has been overlooked a little.
What if they added the All-Decade teams to the 25. So if there are, say, four newly-eligible players who had been on an All-Decade team, they would go through the normal process to come up with their 25. And then they would add the four All-Decade guys for 29. That way, they all get at least one discussion. If they are not worthy of HOF, they can be dismissed as easily as commentors have dismissed them. But if they are worthy, they have gotten talked about in the room without preventing any other players who normally would have gotten into the semifinals from doing so.
Since the cut down vote from 25 to the 15 finalists is done by mail I am not sure how much debate or discussion there is among voters making that cut down vote. The comments I have often heard about needing to give certain candidates a chance has always been about getting them into the final 15 – where the day long discussions face to face and votes occur at that stage so at least their cases for election can be made in front of the entire committee which only occurs at that stage in the process. If the rules were to be changed to add 4 or final all decade members to the 25 semi-finalist list, would that actually improve their chances of getting into the final 15 or would they simply be ignored again? Keeping in mind that most of the pre 1990 unelected all decade team members are also no longer eligible via the modern candidate route. It may be a worthwhile idea, just not so sure it greatly improves their chances much.
Charles Woodson announces his retirement today. Probably will get in on the first ballot. 4/8/00s with 65 Ints(5th all time), 11 brought back for TDs(2nd all time), SB ring, He had a great first 4 seasons; his next 4 with Raiders weren’t so great compared to the first. Then he went to the Packers, first year no PB but played very well with 8 ints;then was named DPOY in 2 years(Revis got robbed though. He shut down some of the best to ever play including TO, Randy Moss, Andre Johnson,Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, Chad Ochocinco at the time, who I wished played longer but father time wins every single time. Awesome WR in prime ).
It’s a fair point, Paul. I’m not suggesting it’s a perfect fix.
Here is our Charles Woodson post: https://www.zoneblitz.com/2015/12/23/charles-woodson-to-retire-1st-ballot-hall-of-famer/