Buy or Sell: Demaryius Thomas

Demaryius Thomas
ADP: 14
WR: 3

Demaryius Thomas has been one of the league’s top wide receivers the past three seasons. He’s still playing with a Hall of Fame-to-be QB in Peyton Manning on an offense with more weapons than most. So you’d be a fool to doubt that he can duplicate his numbers from recent years?

Wouldn’t you?

Buy: Vomhof

Do I really have to convince you to take Demaryius Thomas?

The guy has topped 1,400 yards and 10 touchdowns in each of the past three seasons. And last year was the best of the bunch—111 catches for 1,619 yards and 11 TDs.

Thomas has been equal parts dominant and consistent. What more do you want?

Thomas has established himself as one of the most dynamic playmakers in the NFL. He piled up 647 yards after catch last season and has finished among the top four in that stat for three straight years.

No wonder Peyton Manning loves throwing his direction. Thomas received a whopping 184 times in 2014.

Is Peyton Manning’s health a concern? Sure it is, but that’s true for many players. Would you feel as good about Dez Bryant if Tony Romo’s bad back acts up and Brandon Weeden takes over under center? Besides, Thomas’s stat line actually remained fairly consistent throughout the season, even when Peyton was struggling late in the year.

Worried about the Broncos’ shift to a more balanced offensive attack? Over the last six games of the 2014 season, C.J. Anderson exploded for 648 yards and eight touchdowns while averaging 23 carries per game. Thomas’s stat line over that stretch? Thirty-nine catches for 515 yards and five TDs. Not bad, especially considering that he had one 2/11/0 clunker mixed in there.

What’s more, I think Thomas actually has some upside for 2015 because tight end Julius Thomas signed with Jacksonville this offseason, freeing up more scoring opportunities. Julius Thomas has scored 12 TDs in each of the past two seasons, and that’s not all going to go Owen Daniels or Virgil Green. (Peyton does like Demaryius inside the red zone, targeting him 39 times from inside the 20 last year, including 18 times inside the 10 and 11 times inside the five.)

Is Thomas a steal? No, but elite players rarely are.

So, if you’re drafting in the late first or early second, go ahead and pull the trigger on Thomas. Then rest easy knowing that you can pencil him in for 100 yards and/or a touchdown every Sunday.

Sell: Andy

Let me qualify this stance right from the get-go – I really like Demaryius Thomas. And I don’t believe he is going to suddenly suck or anything like that.

But I do have significant concerns this season, not so much about him, but about the situation in Denver.

First off, I think Peyton Manning is close to done. I hate to doubt the guy, but the last third of the season last year he looked old and average.

Second, you’ve got a new coaching staff. Gary Kubiak has sworn he’s going to implement a more balanced offense. I think that’s wise – but I also think that makes taking Thomas with a first or second round pick a bit more risky than it has been the last three seasons. It’s not like Thomas is the only good receiver on the team. Emmanuel Sanders had a great season in 2014 and he’ll still get his. Cody Latimer is an up-and-coming contributor. And C.J. Anderson has proven a solid receiver out of the backfield, as well.

Then you’ve got the fact that Thomas just signed a huge contract in the offseason. That means A) he missed all the off season workouts and OTAs. Second – and I know it’s a bit cliché – but there is a risk with athletes that once they’ve gotten the big contract that they get a bit fat and happy.

I don’t think that latter concern is going to come true with Thomas. But it’s just one of several reasons I am a bit more hesitant to go with him as early as the middle of the second round.

Would I blame you if you grabbed him? No. Are there scenarios where I’d take him myself around pick 15 … maybe. But that’s a lot of change taking place in one offseason. In my eyes, there are a lot of top notch WRs out there this year whose situations carry slightly less risk.

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