Buy or Sell: Justin Forsett

Justin Forsett
ADP: 36.1
RB: 14

When Ray Rice was suspended and released by Baltimore following his legal issues last season, it looked like Bernard Pierce was going to get his shot at the starting RB job.

Then, out of the blue, Justin Forsett appeared on the scene, rushing for 1,266 yards and adding another 263 through the air. It was easily Forsett’s best season as a pro.

Now, with a new offensive coordinator in Marc Trestman, Forsett is the unquestioned starter. Can he build on the 2014 campaign and go even better this year?

Buy: Vomhof

I already advocated for Frank Gore, and now I’m telling you to buy Justin Forsett, too. What’s my deal? Do I have some type of odd 30-year-old running back fetish?

No, I just love drafting high-quality lead backs who stand to benefit from playing in offenses that are perfectly suited to their strengths.

Forsett finished 2014 as the RB8, carrying the ball 235 times for 1,266 yards and eight TDs. I’ll do the math for you: That’s a whopping 5.39 yards per carry.

He had 40 carries of 10-plus yards last year, second most in the NFL behind DeMarco Murray’s 45. And Forsett did it on 158 fewer rushing attempts!

The guy was legitimately good last season, so it’s no wonder the Ravens brought him back on a three-year, $9 million contract this offseason. (They clearly weren’t worried about his age, and you shouldn’t be either. He turns 30 in mid-October, but last season was the first time he topped 118 carries in a season, so he has plenty of tread left on his tires.)

The good news is that the Ravens are bringing back all five members of an offensive line that Football Outsiders ranked as the league’s No. 3 run-blocking unit. And the Ravens play six of the league’s 10 worse run defenses from 2014, including the division-rival Browns twice.

But here’s the icing on the cake: I expect Forsett to get a boost in the passing game this year under new offensive coordinator Marc Trestman, who loves throwing to his backs as much as kids love candy.

Forsett caught 44 passes last year, and that’s his floor this year. Trestman funneled 102 receptions to Matt Forte in Chicago last year and 74 the year before, ranking first and third among RBs, respectively.

Am I saying Forsett is as good as Forte? No, but he doesn’t have to be.

Trestman has done more with less before. He’s made top pass-catching backs out of guys like Charlie Garner (91 in ’02), Larry Centers (69 in ’98), Michael Pittman (73 in ’00) and Derek Loville (87 in ‘95).

Here’s the bottom line: Even with some regression, Forsett could still end up with 1,000-1,200 yards and 6-8 TDs on the ground. And with Trestman calling the plays, it’s easy to envision him racking up 60 passes and 400 yards in the air. (Heck, I wouldn’t be shocked if he caught 70 or 80 balls this year.)

I’ll happily take him as my RB2 in the late third or early fourth, ahead of RBs like Alfred Morris and Carlos Hyde. He’s very fairly valued as the RB14 this year.

Sell: Andy

I don’t dislike Justin Forsett. I think he was a great story last year. Here’s my concern – last year was Forsett’s seventh in the league and he’d never started more than five games before. He’d never had more than 118 carries and he’d never had more than 41 catches. In other words, Forsett’s spent his career as a complementary back.

He had a great year in 2014, no doubt. And sure, there isn’t exactly anyone pushing him for the top spot on the depth chart. But can you count on a guy who is 5-8, 195 to have another season like he’s never had before?

I think Forsett is great as a second back or as a time share back. But you give him close to 300 carries last season – and the likelihood that the workload grows even bigger this year – particularly, as John mentioned, with a new offensive coordinator who is going to want to throw him the ball a lot – and you make me a bit nervous.

I’m not saying I wouldn’t take Forsett on my roster. I’d be a fool to say I’d leave him off my draft lists altogether – especially in a PPR league, where he could actually take on a lesser role in the run game and still retain value due to his likely prominence in the passing game.

But a mid-fourth round pick? Geesh. That feels like an awfully high price to pay for someone in his eighth season who’d never before had the workload he had last year.

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