Bet the Mortgage: Week 7, 2015 – Best Bets

This is getting ugly. Both of us went 1-3 last week. At least Tony did it from an undisclosed tropical location. I was forced to watch my imaginary bankroll tumble further as Indianapolis hit a meaningless garbage time touchdown from my own living room. It was a tired, cold night.

Anyway, Tony’s progress was largely wiped out. My nosedive became even sharper. Here are the numbers to date:

As long as there are still pretend dollars in our pretend bank accounts, we’ll keep pretending to bet. Here goes:

Tony

Another rough week at the Zoneblitz.com Imaginary Sports Book—I managed to salvage the over in the Sunday Night game, but destroyed the progress I had made with my bankroll. If I were really in Vegas I’d probably lick my wounds at the blackjack tables, rather than try to make it back up  with this ugly slate of games—but since the ZISB doesn’t have blackjack tables, I might as well double down here:

$2,500 – Atlanta (-3.5, -110) at Tennessee – I realize Atlanta is on the road here, but not sure I understand this line at all. Atlanta is 5-1, and while coming off of their first loss (after a couple of close games), they have the 4^th ranked offense in the NFL, and have had two extra days of rest. The Titans are hoping starting quarterback Marcus Mariota can go, and while they have the 3^rd ranked defense overall, they’re 28^th against the run (against a hot Devonta Freeman), 20^th in scoring, and their 2^nd ranked pass defense hasn’t faced anyone the likes of Matt Ryan and Julio Jones yet this season. If it were an option here, I’d probably buy the odds down even further to up the payout—I’d probably take the Falcons at -7.

$1,000 – New York Jets (+9, -110) at New England – I’ve been picking the Patriots to roll most weeks, and I do think they’ll win here—but not sure that they win by double digits. The Jets can stop the Pats running game, and they have Darrelle Revis to help slow the passing game and fill the rest of the defense in on some secrets of the Patriots way. In the end, Brady to Gronk probably helps pull this one out, but it may be the first real test the Patriots have faced this season.

$1,000 – Houston at Miami: Over 44.5 (-110) – I almost took the Dolphins here at -4, being at home with their new interim coach—they looked that much better last week. But shockingly, the Texans have the 6^th ranked offense to go with their 10^th ranked defense—which makes me wonder how they are 2-4 (just might have a little something to do with their quarterback situation). So instead I’ll take the chance that it will be at least a 27-20 type game.

$500 – Tampa Bay (moneyline +150) at Washington – This is one of three games that I was the only one to pick the upset in this week, along with the Saints (+180) and the Chiefs (N/A). Normally I would take the better payout of the Saints, but I am more confident in the Bucs winning (or rather Washington losing) than I am of the Saints winning (or rather the Colts losing), so I’ll up my ante here and hope for the best.

Andy

Well, I’ve sunk to a new low in this contest. I guess I should perhaps think about pulling back a bit to reassess my gambling life, I instead am choosing to plow forward. Nothing to lose now except an imaginary broken leg or two. Balls to the wall. If I run out of mythical bankroll, I’ll find someone to offer me a mythical loan.

750 – Seattle (-7, -110) at San Francisco – Seattle has been abysmal this season, at least compared with the last two years. But the Seahawks still have a good team buried in that dreck. There’s work to be done to fix up defensive lapses that can largely be attributed to Dan Quinn leaving his defensive coordinator post for Atlanta. But San Francisco doesn’t have the manpower to challenge this team. They’ll destroy Colin Kaepernick and comfortably get back into the win column.

$750 – Atlanta (-4.5, -110) at Tennessee – I was just starting to believe in Atlanta when they went to New Orleans and dropped a growler. The Falcons aren’t as good as their record, at least talent-wise, but I do recognize the impact the aforementioned Dan Quinn has had on this team. Tennessee has shown some signs of improvement, but the Falcons are further along and they’re also eager to get the taste of last week’s loss out of their respective mouths.

$1,500 – Arizona (-10, +110) vs Baltimore – The Cardinals stole defeat from the jaws of victory in Pittsburgh last week, at the hands, no less, of third-string QB Landry Jones. That’s gotta sting. I’ve got year-long fantasy, one-week fantasy, game pick pools and now imaginary bankrolls wrapped up in the Cardinals avenging that defeat. The only thing I debated here was giving 8.5 for -110 or 10 for +110. I figured with my bankroll already this depleted what do I have to lose going for the big score. Now, Arizona, please win this week … please win by a lot … and please score 60 while doing so.

$300 – Cleveland (+225 moneyline) at St. Louis – Todd Gurley’s presence makes me a bit nervous on this one, but Josh McCown is mostly playing well for Cleveland and the mostly moribund Browns usually steal one the experts think they have no business winning. And if I’m wrong, what the hell else would be new.