Peyton Manning - BroncosReports out of Denver over the past few weeks state that Peyton Manning wants to come back to play in 2016, and also that he has no interest in serving as the backup to Brock Osweiler if/when healthy (although Manning later called that report “Bullshit”). If you combine that with the assumption that the Broncos plan to move forward with Brock Osweiler in 2016—a move that will necessitate a new, presumably good sized contract for their young quarterback—and it seems even more unlikely that the Broncos will be interested in paying Manning his $19 million base salary.

That leaves the inevitable question—if Manning wants to start in 2016, where would that most likely occur? Would a team that feels it might be a quarterback away from a serious playoff run take a chance on the aged veteran? Could a hometown team make a run? Would a team with their own quarterback injury woes in 2015 pair him with a superstar wide receiver? Or maybe a team would like to bring him in to serve as a one year mentor for a quarterback who has struggled to adapt to the pro game?

Here’s our top potential landing spots for Peyton Manning in 2016:

  • Houston Texans – This will undoubtedly be the most talked about location, given that the Texans have a solid defense, and a team that has managed to get back into the playoff conversation despite likely starting their 4th quarterback in Week 16 (Brian Hoyer, Ryan Mallet, TJ Yates and Brandon Weeden). They have a solid young receiver core with DeAndre Hopkins (who with 169 targets, 97 catches and 10 TDs should be in the conversation for first overall pick in fantasy leagues) and Jaelen Strong, not to mention Cecil Shorts (who actually leads the team in QB rating this season), and an offensive line that isn’t terrible at pass blocking (com ratest them as a -5.4, which is actually ranked 7th best in the league).They also have questions at running back, and have actually gotten better performance from Hoyer when healthy (60.5 completion %, 18-6 TD-INT ratio, 7.2 Yards/Att) than the Broncos have from Manning (59.9%, 9-17, 6.8), although reports are now that Manning’s foot injury occurred before the season (let’s go check those injury reports, eh). And a young core that will need to be paid at some point—giving a chunk of cash to Manning, even for one year, may not be in their best interest.
  • San Francisco 49ers – It seems clear that the 49ers will move on from Colin Kaepernick after the season, and unless they’re seeing something we don’t, Blaine Gabbert isn’t the long term solution as a starter. Whether its undrafted Dylan Thompson or a 2016 draft choice that inherits the future franchise QB label, who would you rather have teaching them the position—Gabbert or Manning?Of course, the fact that the team still appears to be a couple of seasons of rebuilding away from being a threat in the NFC West may make them less attractive to Manning.
  • Louis Rams – The Rams hardly seem committed to Nick Foles in 2016, even with a sizeable contract extension he signed earlier this year—it only has one season remaining. Case Keenum hardly seems like a solution, and Sean Mannion…well, I hadn’t even heard of him until I started to research this. The Rams have some intriguing talent on their roster, but also seem like they are a few years away.
  • Dallas Cowboys – This would seem like an extreme longshot, unless Tony Romo decided to walk away from the game (or Manning agreed to be a backup at a greatly reduced salary), but that’s how slim things are for a quarterback like Manning. The Eagles would seem unlikely to go after an immobile QB to start in their offense, and every other team seems to have set themselves up—whether based on talent, contract or both.Pairing Manning with Dez Bryant and Jason Witten (if he doesn’t retire), and an offensive line that is lauded as one of the best, would seem like an ideal situation. Of course, as the Cowboys found out this year, they are lacking in the backup department—and bringing in Manning wouldn’t solve that, unless Romo stuck around.
  • New Orleans Saints – Similar to Dallas, this move would be dependent on the situation with Drew Brees, who is currently due to count for $30 million in cap space in 2016, which would be tops in the NFL. The Saints would save about $20 million from that hit if he was traded or released in the offseason–which when combined with their $12 million in dead money tied to Junior Gallette means they will either have $22 million in dead cap space between two players if they dump him, or $42 million in combined cap space for the two if they keep him–meaning most likely, the Saints try to extend Brees, to lessen the blow in 2016. At the same time, the window of competitiveness for the Saints appears to be closing–if it’s not already closed–so the Saints could cut ties with Brees, take a one year hit, and try come back strong in 2017.If they took that approach, it would seem to indicate that Manning wouldn’t fit–but if they promised him the starting job, a one year deal back in his hometown might make sense. It would likely keep the Saints somewhat in the relevancy of the playoffs for the one year they use to clear their salary cap issues (at least, they would be able to sell that hope with Manning), and give them another year to prepare Garrett Grayson (or find another QB of the future option).

    It still feels like a long shot–I’m not sure Sean Payton (or any head coach/GM) could survive a risky maneuver like this, especially with a star like Drew Brees–but it would be easier to swallow this approach with Peyton Manning coming home than it would be with hoping Matt Flynn or Luke McCown could hold down the fort for a season.

  • Cleveland Browns – Just kidding…while I’m guessing the Browns wouldn’t mind bringing Manning in to show Johnny Manziel the ropes, I suspect Manning would take one look at this situation and head for the broadcast booth.

    Not to mention, I’m not convinced that Johnny Football will even be in the picture in 2016 to take on the mentoring…

  • Backup role—if Manning were willing to accept a backup role, teams like the Miami Dolphins, Minnesota Vikings, Atlanta Falcons or Detroit Lions might be of interest to Manning. Or two additional interesting teams that could be in need of a backup solution—the Indianapolis Colts, or of course the Denver Broncos.

Wherever Manning does end up in 2016—and as someone who watched Brett Favre in 2010, I would strongly encourage him to consider the retirement option—it will be interesting to see how he does in potentially learning another new offense, and mixing with another coaching staff and roster. It surely will make for a compelling story that I’m sure no four letter network will drive into the ground.