Bet the Mortgage: Week 17, 2015 – Best Bets

Well, this has … hang on, phone call.

“No, no sir, I don’t know where Tony is. Sure, sure, give me your number, I’ll have him get … you don’t want to give me your number? You’ll call again? Sorry, you’ll do what to him? Ok. Thanks. I’ll let him know you’re looking for him.”

Where were we again? Oh, yeah, this has gotten interesting.

After depleting his entire hypothetical bankroll, Tony doubled down – and he lost big time, going 0-4 and losing the entire hypothetical bankroll again. I think the imaginary guy on the pretend phone is irritated with him too.

Andy, meanwhile, climbed a few hundred dollars closer to breaking even.

Here’s a breakdown of where we’re at as we head into the last week of this dismal regular season of betting.

And here are our bets for this week:

Andy

The last week of the season is one of the most difficult to predict. You’ve got playoff teams that may or may not sit starters. You’ve got questionable motivation statuses for those teams already eliminated. You’ve got soon-to-be free agents trying to show they are worthy of big contracts. It’s the holidays. It’s just hard to know what is going to happen. But I’m ramping it up anyway – who wants to break even, especially with a hypothetical bankroll? Let’s either win big or go home with our pockets jingling with just enough quarters to cobble together cab fare to the airport.

$3,500 – New England (-11.5, +115) at Miami – The only thing about the Dolphins worth paying any attention to these days are the texts Miko Grimes – either about the team, the QB or the birthday cakes she buys her husband, Miami CB Brent Grimes. We use a couple of sites found at either VegasInsider or Yahoo! that aggregate game odds to formulate these picks. Most have the Pats giving 10 or 10.5. One site, 5dimes.eu, is typically a bit more aggressive. You can get better payoffs for an extra point or two. I’d probably be willing to give up to 16 or 17 for this game. The Patriots are still protecting home field throughout the playoffs, and the easiest way for them to do that is win this game. They will. Comfortably.

$3,000 – Pittsburgh (-11.5, +105) at Cleveland – It’s 5dimes again offering +105 for a couple extra points. Reasoning is similar to that of the Pats’ game. Pittsburgh is still alive, but fighting for its playoff life after a dud against Baltimore. That is unlikely to happen again. The Steelers will score at will against a team that likely is ready to just start playing golf for the New Year.

$1,000 – Washington (+4, -110) at Dallas – Thought about going with the Saints here, but New Orleans and Atlanta have both been weird all season. I realize the Redskins have little to play for here, other than perhaps finishing above .500 rather than right at 8-8. But Dallas put Dez Bryant on injured reserve this week and they haven’t been able to generate much without him. I could see this ending 9-3. While I am a bit uncomfortable blowing my bank account on a bunch of road teams, I don’t see Dallas winning this game.

$900 – Seattle (+250 money line) at Arizona – This game illustrates the challenges of picking games in week 17. The Cardinals do still have a shot at the NFC’s top seed. And the Carolina/Tampa game kicks off at the same time. But Arizona has wrapped up a bye in the first week of the playoffs. And they have a number of skill players who seem just short of totally healthy right now, including QB Carson Palmer, who dislocated a finger a couple weeks ago. If it looks at all like Carolina is starting to pull away from the Bucs, I expect to see some Cardinals sitting. Meanwhile, Seattle still has seeding status at play. A favorable result would send the Seahawks to Washington for the first round of the playoffs. That seems like a pretty good reason to make sure they win this game.

Tony

I’ve got to keep this short, because I’m writing from an internet café in a location I’m not going to divulge, and I’m worried that Guido may have a way to trace my emails. Last week did not go well, and I’m a little worried that my fictional sports bookie is about to break my kneecaps. Guess I’ve got one more chance to make good, right?  I’m sure Guido’s boss will still take my action …

$5,000 – New England (-9, -110) at Miami – What’s Bill Belichick’s record against the spread when his opponents don’t care about the game, he’s got home field advantage on the line, and he’s coming off of an overtime loss against a hated rival in which his decision making skills are severely questioned by media outlets around the country (other than Boston, where he presumably still walks on water)?  I don’t have it in front of me, but I bet it’s good.

$5,000 – Green Bay (moneyline -175) over Minnesota – Yeah, I’m mixing things up a bit. Why? Because I owe a fictional $10k to a fictional bookie, and I’ve missed 7 of my last 8 bets. At least if I miss this one, my hometown team wins their division against the hated rival. And why the -175 money line? Well, if I went with the line (-3.5, Even) I’m guessing the Pack would win by 1.

$3,000 – San Diego at Denver: Over 41 (-110) – At this point, there’s not a lot of logic in my bets…but maybe that’s a good thing, based on the last couple of weeks?

$500 – Philadelphia (money line +145) at NY Giants – Which team wants it less?  This is a Giants team that just had 49 points dropped on them by the Minnesota Vikings.