Nine of the 15 finalists for induction in the Pro Football Hall of Fame’s 2016 class were offensive players, including
Courtesy of the Pro Football Hall of Fame
three first-time eligible players: Alan Faneca, Brett Favre and Terrell Owens.
Just three finalists played defense. One was a kicker and two were coaches.
The 15 finalists were:
- K Morten Andersen
- S Steve Atwater
- Coach Don Coryell
- RB Terrell Davis
- G Alan Faneca
- QB Brett Favre
- LB/DE Kevin Greene
- WR Marvin Harrison
- T Joe Jacoby
- RB Edgerrin James
- S John Lynch
- WR Terrell Owens
- T Orlando Pace
- QB Kurt Warner
Perhaps the most surprising selections in this group are Joe Jacoby, whose support has just started to grow in the last couple of years, and Don Coryell, whose chances seemed on life support just a few years ago. Coryell, the architect of the high flying San Diego offense in the 1980s, died in 2010.
Lynch and Atwater represent a growing backlog of credible safety candidates that is only going to grow as Ed Reed, Troy Polamalu and others approach eligibility in the next few years.
Surprising, at least to me, is the absence of former Dallas and Miami coach Jimmy Johnson, who won two Super Bowls with Dallas and likely would have won more had his tenure been shortened by his soured relationship with owner Jerry Jones.
Otherwise the group matches pretty closely the finalist predictions Tony and I made early last year. In place of Coryell, Jacoby and James, we had Torry Holt, Jimmy Johnson and Kevin Mawae.
Hall of Fame voters narrowed the list to 15 from 25 modern-era semifinalists, who were announced in November. The initial list of nominees was 108 players long. It was announced in September. Voters next meet during the week of the Super Bowl, during which time this list will be culled to 10 and then five.
Those five players, along with two senior nominees (Dick Stanfel and Ken Stabler) and a contributor (former 49ers owner Edward DeBartolo Jr.) will advance to an up or down vote, where they will need the support of 80 percent of the voters in order to earn enshrinement. The class could max out at eight.
Loading ...
Class of 2016
Edward DeBartolo
Tony Dungy
Brett Favre
Kevin Greene
Marvin Harrison
Orlando Pace
Ken Stabler
Dick Stanfel
Robert Ewing: I think you are highly likely to be correct. There are others that I prefer, but based on past voting trends, I think you nailed it. However, just as a thought exercise, if there is a “Ricky Jackson/Chris Doleman” type surprise, I’m curious who people think it will be. For me, it could be one of the safeties. There has been more talk than usual about the position being under-represented in the HOF. Reed, Polomalu, and Dawkins will be eligible soon, so it may near the last chance for these guys. Finally, the electors have talked recently about wanted more offense / defense balanced classes (and for whatever it is worth, both Stabler and Stanfel played offense). Thoughts?
I agree with Robert (the five modern candidates he listed are same I predicted starting end of 2015 elections).. The only surprise for me with the 2016 finalist list was the absence of Jimmy Johnson, perhaps that is simply voters noting wanting 3 slots taken up by coaches at the expense of a deserving player (Jacoby, who I have predicted in past making into the final 15). After Favre (100% sure), Greene (90%), Pace (80%) and Harrison (70%), besides likelihood of Dungy or Warner, one of the Safeties is possible as I do not see any other finalists who have reached the end of their eligibility thus voters inclined to elect them.
Reminder that the voters will meet the day before the Superbowl (Sat Feb 6th) with results officially announced during the 2016 NFL Honors Show on CBS starting at 9pm EST. However, that show is tape delayed for some odd reason, with the live show actually starting at 8pm EST – so confirmation from the players and reporters via social media may start to circulate earlier that evening once they are notified in person by the HOF, certainly before 9am show starts..
I have Edward DeBartolo,Ken Stabler, Dick Stanfel, Brett Farve, Kevin Greene. Orlando Pace, Marvin Harrison, and Terrell Davis.
Terrell Davis is a guess on my part. I could see Dungy, Warner, Jacoby, Atwater, or Lynch take Davis’s spot. This class doesn’t have a lot of 1st ballot players and is why I am taking a guess on the 5th modern era ballot is Terrell Davis.
Reading some buzz that Davis may be picking up some support from HOF voters – possible he could be a surprise selection this year, The 5th slot (after Farve, Greene, Pace and Harrison) could be an opening for him.. Would not be a surprise to see him advance for the first time into the round of 10. Regardless with only LT (2017) joining the ballot as RB in next few years Davis could get in within next few years (2016 is only his 2nd time as a finalist, 3-5 year waits are not that uncommon as we have seen in recent years and on 2016 finalist list).
Lots of things:
–Jimmy Johnson wasn’t renewed as a finalist. The three new names are Jacoby, Atwater, and James.
–have always considered the five regular candidates to get in this year to be Favre, Harrison, Pace, Greene, and Dungy. But Jacoby making the finals for the first time this year with only two eligible years left may change things. He might just spin his wheels for the last two years of his candidacy and drop off like Randy Gradishar, or he might make a Rickey Jackson like run straight in — and if so, it will likely come at the expense of Pace or Dungy.
— of the five second-tier worthies from last year (James, Law, Mawae, Holt, Bruce), it wound up being the first of these to break through. Wondered who it would be.
–not the best news for Mecklenburg, Kenn, or Craig, all of whose regular candidacies are running out. The news is especially bad for Craig, whose eligibility is up next year and saw first Terrell Davis and then Edgerrin James jump past him into the finals. Not that I’m too broken up about Craig, as I’m not convinced he belongs in anyway.
A couple thoughts:
At least for me, Jacoby is easily the biggest surprise here. As much as he was a great player who I think eventually deserves induction, it’s hard to for me to believe that he made the jump over Kevin Mawae. I can’t say that I would vote him in over any of the other finalists.
I’m really happy to see Steve Atwater finally get onto the finalist list. He is to me the most likely guy to get a Jackson/Doleman boost straight into the Hall. He’s one of only 3 defensive players on the finalist list, and in my opinion he’s pretty much dead even with John Lynch in terms of credentials
I wasn’t surprised to see one of the coaches drop off the finalist list, but my money would have been on Coryell missing the cut.
With James making the finalist list, this is likely it for Roger Craig on the modern vote. Tomlinson is eligible next year, and he now clearly has two players at the same position ahead of him in terms of support. I do have a feeling though that he’ll get a quick nomination once he hits the senior committee. While many positions have serious backlog, RB is not one of them, and he would instantly be a top 5 if not the top RB in the senior pool.
My picks for this year are Favre, Greene, Harrison, Pace and Lynch. I can’t see 6 offensive players getting in at once so Warner, Owens, Davis, James, Faneca and Jacoby are likely no’s unless they replace Pace or Harrison. Dungy or (as a longshot) Atwater would also be possibilities for the last slot. I can’t see Coryell of Andersen making too much noise this year.
I do like the predictions for this years class. I am happy to see Edgerrin make the Finalist. He was an underrated RB. I remember playing with him in Madden 2001 and John would say “This guys vision keeps getting better”. He had 4 seasons with at least 1,500 rushing yards. 2 rushing titles(his first 2 seasons),433 receptions,11th most rushing yards, Kind of a shame he never won a SB. He left then the next year they won. Peyton finally got over the Brady hump in the playoffs in 2006. Anyway,I am shocked as well Kevin Mawae didn’t make it, especially over Joe Jacoby; who deserves to be in , but Mawae has by far a better resume. I wouldn’t mind Joe going in soon due to him running out of eligibility; then Mawae goes in 3-4 years from now. As for the future, Jason Taylor is going to be interesting to see if he goes in first ballot.
Looking at the future HC contenders who are active: Tom Coughlin will be a HC for a new team if he so chooses to be one. His win % isn’t the best at 53%. Still respectable. Think that is a concern? Also, Andy Reid has turned Chiefs into a pretty good squad. His HOF stock has gone up in my book. Will be interesting to see if he can get them to the SB someday.
What is everyone’s view on pass rushers like Jason Taylor, Jared Allen, Dwight Freeney,John Abraham, DeMarcus Ware, and Terrell Suggs? I view Jason as a potential first ballot, but definitely going in within 3-4 years. He was taller than Chris Doleman, but weighted like 20-30 lbs less. Jason was an incredible athlete. Doleman was mobile, but not like JT. Also, Jason’s fumble for TDs record of 6 is somewhat luck, but to scoop it up and run it back for TDs is skill and probably won’t be broken, perhaps only tied. He took one 85 yards to the house! His teams were 8-1 when he scored in the game. Not bad impact. John Abraham is borderline HOF. In prime a HOFer, but he got hurt a lot with Jets and also with Falcons. 3/5/none is not strong, but he had quality seasons outside his 5 pro bowl and AP seasons. I can see him getting in via Senior Nominee if he isn’t inducted in a class on one of his last ballots. He had a pretty good 2nd to last season and then with Cards got hurt. I see him getting to Semi Finalists during his time being eligible. As for the others I view them as HOFers, especially Jared Allen; Dwight Freeney has done enough to get in. He had 8 sacks this past year on limited PT. He still has game left. Terrell Suggs has DRPOY, DPOY, and a SB ring. All of which John doesn’t. I view T-Sizzle as a HOFer in the making. If he can play another 3-4 seasons and get his sack total near 140 I think it would be definitely enough to get in. As is, he has a shot. But, the more sacks the better.
I think all of Freeney, Taylor, Ware, Allen, Abraham, and Suggs get in eventually. Am guessing Ware is quickly voted in, Allen and Taylor waiting a little longer, Freeney and Suggs a good bit, and Abraham a long time. But they’ve all got lots of career sacks and decent to excellent honors profiles: Freeney 3/7/00s, Taylor 3/6/00s, Ware 4/9/00s, Allen 4/5/10s?, Abraham 3/5/none?, Suggs 1/6/10s?
Brad, Suggs isn’t likely to be in the league 4 more seasons and production wouldn’t be there for another 29 to 34 sacks. Suggs is going to be 34 years old this season and he came off season ending injury during the first game of the 2015.
Any defensive player that suffered a major season ending injury at the age of 33 is asking a lot for going back to previous form.
Ware to me could be a first ballot player depending on how many more season’s he’s going to player. Ware is 5.5 sacks away from 140 career sacks with him being 34 next season. I think the voters will look at him as the best pass rushing linebacker of his era. I think Ware or Peppers could end 5th in career sacks when they retire. I don’t think either one will pass one will pass Chris Doleman in Sacks to be ranked 4th of all time.
Abraham is going to wait a while due to his postseason honors, but get in at some point.
Freeney is going wait based on how he is now, but will get in at some point. The fact is Dwight this season had his best sack total since 2011 and has 119 sacks. White Freeney has the post honors, there are players with higher sack totals not in the hall of fame.
Suggs is going wait some, but he will get inducted. He doesn’t the sack I like, but the linebacker position has a different standard.
Jared Allen is going to get in quick although his production really declined after he turned 32.
I think we all agree Cam Newton is a future HOFer. Not saying he just needs to get x amount of stats to get in. Still needs at least another 4-5 years of playing at a Pro Bowl level; but he is on pace to get around 80-90 rushing TDs for career and over 250 passing TDs. Not saying he will get the rushing TDs, but 60-70 if not more is realistic and with 240-260+ passing TDs is as well. He and Carson Palmer are the first QBs not named Brett Favre, Aaron Rodgers, Tom Brady , Peyton Manning, and Drew Brees to be named 1st and 2nd team All Pro since 1998(Steve Young and Randall Cunningham).
He and Russell Wilson are definitely the QB of the 2010s among the ones who have played 5 years or less. Andrew Luck used to be but time told us, as the saying goes. Cam’s completion % isn’t pretty, but neither is Luck’s, in fact, it’s worse. Also, Cam will most likely win MVP of the league. Russell Wilson could win Offensive Player Of The Year(Cam definitely in contention, wouldn’t surprise me the least bit if he gets it), who I now view as a definite HOF worthy guy if he sustains this level, which I think he can. Cam may be gifted physically, but Wilson is not and makes up for it with hustle and working hard. He has the 2nd best passer rating ever. He had a 110.1 this past season, which ranks as 14th best ever, but among those with at least 30 TD passes and less than 10 ints, it’s like 6-7. This is a big year for young QBs. Andy Dalton is someone to also look at. He could be the 4th QB among the young QBs.
It will be a very interesting 4-5+ years to see where QBs end up. Carson Palmer is in my eyes a SB win away from being a serious contender. Phillip Rivers and Tony Romo same thing. Although I view them as more of a HOFer based on their consistency. Palmer was about to go down as a QB who played well,but could have done more(winning and going deep in playoffs). But, ever since he joined the Cardinals, he has been 29-9 as a starter. I am thoroughly impressed. He could play another 3-4 seasons. QBs tend to play a long time, especially the good ones. His 0/2/none is weak, epecially with no playoff win, but he is now on a different team than he was with Bengals. And he is perhaps playing his best ball right now.
Newton and Wilson are currently on the right path, especially if they can win SBs and claim the 2010a all decade QB slots. But at this point I would not declare them future HOFers. I would lump Palmer in with Rivers and Romo – they are all quickly running out of time and need SB, and more All Pro/Pro Bowls to greatly strengthen their cases as they certainly fall into the 2nd tier of 2000s QBs in terms of HOF chances.
In regards to the 2000s pass rushing DE/LBs I agree with much of the comments already been made, and a factor that could come into play is that several of these players could enter the ballot with a period of 3-5 years leading to a major backlog (like we have seen recently with WRs, OL and soon with S). It will result in split votes among the HOF voters and may take them several years or longer to sort them out – during which as players from other positions continue to join the ballot very possible a few of these 200s DE/LBs could fall right off into the deep seniors pool.
I agree with Paul that is is premature to call Wilson or Newton future Hall of HOFer.
I don’t see Carson Palmer a Super Bowl away from being being a serious contender. Time is running out Palmer and Palmer does have a history of injuries like Romo does.
I know we have seen many players have great starts and not make HOF. I am simply saying they are definitely frontrunners to be the “Tom Brady and Peyton Manning” of the 2010s- mids 2020s.
Here’s an interesting stat: In last 7 regular season games combined Wilson and Newton have combined for 49 TDs-2 Ints. Safe to say they are hitting their prime right about now.
So Cam Newton is headed to the Super Bowl to face an all time great QB in Peyton Manning. Two former 1st overall picks,separated by a decade plus; Cam is definitely an unique player,who has a completely different skill set,from than any other QB;representing the new wave.. Peyton is more of your traditional old school QB. Cam can is built like Eric Dickerson. Not saying he is as good at running;. never seen Cam run 15-20 times per game for season. Just comparing their height,but Cam is taller. . His arm is not the best,but he is no game manager when he is on. Top 5-10 QB, like this past season. He has really stepped up this year. If Peyton wins, his legacy in pro football would be even bigger. Winning one with two different teams has never been done before.. If Cam wins, He is up there among the besr best young QB, although Russell Wilson has a SB, win better completion %, better regular and post season stats and passer rating. They are taking the torch from the Brady-Manning rivalry.
I am not sure yet whether Cam represents the new wave of next generation QBs or a “once in the era” type of QB. Seems like since he was drafted we have not seen more large QBs who can both throw from the pocket, run and throw on the move at 6’5″ 245lbs. Perhaps it will take time before we begin to see QBs come out of HS and college who could have the size and skills to play LB, but were developed as QBs. If he stays healthy and the Panthers competitive he could secure his place among the top QBs of this decade. After this Superbowl there are four more seasons and SBs in the 2010s decade, so with many of the 2000s QBs starting to age out of the game, possible that Cam, Wilson (and perhaps Carr, Luck) will be the next great group
Well, he has led his team to the SB and has been a big part of it. People were saying “Oh he’s going to be a bust” “Or wildcat QB at best” when drafted. After his 21 passing TD-4k yards in passing-14 Rushing TD rookie year; Panthers go from 17 total TDs the previous year to 47 offensive TDs(Not all scored by him but you get the picture) it was “will they make the playoffs?” Then his 3rd year they go 12-4, then it was.”He might never led them to the SB”. This year they go 15-1 and are in the SB. Cam is definitely the leader of the new wave in my books, along with Russell Wilson.
By new wave I was referring to whether his size and style of play would become the new norm for the QB position- not sure if we have yet seen that trend. He may be an outlier and unique and not start of a trend for the position. I am not dismissing his abilities and recent success and that of his team -clearly built to be a SB contender now and in the near future. Not sure we will see many more like him in terms of size and style of play as QB. And yes there were plenty of doubters from the day he was drafted (and his attitude still turns many people off), and continued to be so during this season, but clearly he and his team have proven them wrong for this SB and positioning themselves to be true contender into near future..
Prisco from CBS started a twitter war today stating any HOF voter not selecting TO as 1st ballot does not deserve a vote – let the fun begin during HOF election week.
TO will have his supporters, including among the HOF voters, but somehow I think his not getting elected is not going to draw him much sympathy or passionate calls for reforming HOF voting – may see more of that for the cases of Warner or Davis if not elected (also very possible outcome)
Calvin Johnson told Lions Head Coach Jim Caldwell 2015 was his last season. His HOF resume is not too strong , even for the short period of time he played (3/5/maybe 2010s ADT), but he has the record for receiving yards in a single season, all be it in an easy era for receivers. His 83 TDs is high for only playing 9 seasons. I think he will get in eventually, but will have to be like on his 10-11th ballot.
Guessing Calvin is not truly done, ends up playing for playoff caliber team by 2017
Brad, Calvin actually has 6 pro bowls with his 3 first time all pro instead instead of having 5 Pro Bowls. That actually makes his case a bit stronger. as a 3/6 player.
Yeah i totally forgot he made it this year. I was looking at his pro-football-reference stats and they didn’t include this year’s Pro Bowl appearance.
But at the rate recent probowl including this year selections quickly losing their value as indication of best players in a year
Some clarification of my earlier post as to when results from the 2016 election will be known this Saturday. Reminder that the voters will meet the day before the Superbowl (Sat Feb 6th) with results officially announced during the 2016 NFL Honors Show on CBS starting at 9pm EST. However, that show is tape delayed for some odd reason, with the live show actually starting at 8pm EST (live 5pm PST from San Fran) – so confirmation from the players and reporters via social media may start to circulate earlier that evening (EST) perhaps 6-7pm, once they are notified in person by the HOF, certainly before 9pm EST show starts.. Last year these early notices came out on social media, often by the elected players themselves. So bottom line, expect some news via social media during the early evening (EST) Saturday.
How is Calvin Johnson’s resume “not too strong”? He has the same number of all pros as the last four receivers elected not named Jerry Rice combined: Reed had 0, Brown 0, Carter 2, Monk 1. He was the most dominate offensive weapon in the NFL from 2010-2015. I agree that some voters will likely punish him for not having the normal “tail” to his career, but they shouldn’t, especially the more we learn about head injuries. He was the best receiver in the NFL during the explosion of passing numbers in the early 2010. He should also easily be on the NFL’s all decade team for 2010’s, which will be an interesting early barometer of his HOF chances. I hope and expect him to have a very similar wait as Marvin Harrison (who I expect to get his call on Saturday). Calvin will get in once it is his turn (after Moss, Holt, Bruce, Wayne and I guess TO).
As an aside, I’m very surprised by the support for TO this week. I’m beginning to think that he gets in much sooner that I anticipated, perhaps this year or next. That said, there have also been some very outspoken critics like Mike Martz. Interested to hear people’s thoughts.
What is everyone’s predictions for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2016?
The first 5 Modern Era Nominees to be eliminated from 15 to 10?
Who gets elminated from 10 to 5 nominees?
Which 5 nominees get elected?
My predictions of who gets elected this year are Eddie Debartolo, Tony Dungy, Brett Favre, Kevin Greene, Marvin Harrison, Orlando Pace, Ken Stabler and Dick Stanfel.
Based purely on career numbers it is easy for people to make a case for TO, so I am not surprised at the support his case is getting (and the criticism directed at those stating he will not be a 1st ballot selection). With 46 voters and needed 80%,. given the clear mixed feelings among the public and likely among voters, it will only take 10 voters to stop his election this yea. Combined with the recent WR voting trends (the “Rice” effect) I still foresee that TO will not get elected this year. If voters made Brown and Harrison wait, they will do same for TO – it is only fair LOL. But clearly TO has HOF numbers, so yes he is getting in within the next few years and deservingly so, although with Moss joining the ballot in 2018 it will get real interesting if both are on at the same time!
With three all pro teams this decade, Calvin Johnson has built a pretty solid case, but there are seven other all pro teams this decade (2014 and 2015 already selected, four more to come), so there still is a chance he does not make the 2010s all decade team. If he never plays again (which I am doubtful about, very possible he yet returns to play), his body of work is very good but at 9 years it is also short and leaving him low on the career receiving numbers and nothing in terms of playoff numbers or successes. His is the textbook case of how voters treat quality but short careers – a long wait for consideration to the HOF, especially keeping in mind the number of other quality players, including some WRs, who are going to retire in the next few years and thus overlap with him on the ballot. He will get consideration and chance to get in based on the quality of some of his years, but it is not going to be certain, short or assured given what we have seen with HOF voting trends..
Terrell Owens probably won’t get in 1st ballot; but I am pretty sure I said months ago he has some chance of getting in first ballot. I see Marvin getting in this year and TO next year, which will “clear it up” for Randy Moss, Hines Ward, Torry Holt, Issac Bruce, and others. Calvin Johnson as far as getting in quick, I am not sure. Purely based on prime years, you can say he is as good as anyone, but Art Monk retired with most receptions ever and didn’t get in until his like 10-11th ballot. Yes he had only 3 Pro Bowls, but you get the point. TO getting all this praise and the stone is rolling a little bit, you think it could bode well for Randy? His prime years trump TO. Yes, he had that 1 not so good season with Raiders, but he wasn’t happy. And that may be toxic, I don’t see him being any worse than TO. It looks kind of clear that Marvin, TO, and Randy will be the next 3 WRs inducted, where does everyone else among WRs stack up?
(If all is true)Looking at the 2007 NFL Draft, Calvin is the 2nd of the big names to retire. Patrick Willis retired last year. Adrian Peterson, Joe Thomas, and Darrelle Revis are the others remaining. I do believe AP and JT are first ballot HOFers if they get another 1-2 PBs; that would lock it in my book. Revis can be with another 2-3 PBs as well. He is the only one to get a SB appearance, let alone a SB win.
If Calvin Johnson indeed retires, it’ll be interesting to see what happens with him come HoF eligibility time. My guess is that he gets elected but after a good sized wait.
But comparing him to Sterling Sharpe is sobering. Sharpe isn’t getting in except maybe as a Senior well down the road because the perception is that his career was too short. Sharpe’s honors profile is 3/5/none and he played seven seasons. Johnson currently stands at 3/6/??? and has played nine seasons. And both have a similar amount of “black ink” (times they led the league in a major category.
It could go either way. One other thing that might help, though, is if we see more great players like him and Patrick Willis retiring early — then the short career stigma might become less important to the HoF voters.
While I don’t think he’ll get in first-ballot, I have a hard time seeing too long a wait for Megatron. Hard to imagine enough other WRs being seen as better than him to knock him out of the 2010s All-Decade Team. Is there a single WR with a better 2010s resume than him as it stands? Any WRs anywhere near having his level of stardom?
Speaking of WRs, where does Brandon Marshall fit into the WR logjam,especially at the rate he is playing?
Johnson certainly will be competitive when it comes to the 10s all decade team, but Andre Johnson and Larry Fitzgerald will certainly get consideration despite having good years in both the 00s and 10s, plus we don’t know how guys like Antonio Brown, Julio Jones, Brandon Marshall, and Dez Bryant will look by decade’s end.
As it stands right now Antonio Brown and Julio Jones have good shots at the two WRs for the 2010s decade team
Bachs Lunch after much thought im removing debartolo from my list here is my updated list
Terrell Davis
Brett Favre
Kevin Greene
Marvin Harrison
Orlando Pace
Ken Stabler
Dick Stanfel
Debartolo, Dungy, Favre, Harrison, Greene, Pace, Stabler, Stanfel
Sticking with the modern 5 prediction I made after 2015 election
I think Paul’s prediction is pretty solid:
DeBartolo (hard to imagine DeBartolo being passed over during a Super Bowl in San Fran)
Favre (absolute lock)
Harrison (only way he gets passed over is if TO supporters refuse to support him as a way of “supporting” TO)
Greene (not sure I agree, but his time has come)
Pace (last of the golden generation of left tackles gets his election)
Stabler (helps the Super Bowl is in the Bar Area, but he is worthy)
Stanfel (Been put forward multiple times for a senior slot, hard to believe he will be passed over again)
Dungy (Still believe he is the odds on favorite, but given that the Broncos are in the Super Bowl, I also think it is possible Davis (hugely worthy) or Atwater get a surge of support. Also in favor of Atwater (and Lynch) is the relatively few defensive players in the list of finalists)
I still have Edward DeBartolo,Ken Stabler, Dick Stanfel, Brett Farve, Kevin Greene. Orlando Pace, Marvin Harrison, and Terrell Davis for being inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Everyone has listed who I would like to see inducted. Looking ahead, TO should get in 2017 if not this year. Still think there is a small chance he gets in this year, but will be “surprising” given how many people are against him. Could Randy Moss get in first ballot or have the same support TO is getting?
I am not so sure that the location of the SB or teams playing has any effect on players elected that year to the HOF. If you dismiss the clear obvious and front runners (those you would expect to get elected regardless of SB connections), but instead the unexpected that jump from the finalist list right to election (examples Davis and Atwater this year) I doubt the SB location and team plays a role. Now Davis and Atwater are finalists again, and could on their merits, jump Dungy or other 2015 final 10 candidates, but location is not why. Do we have any evidence from past elections where a “hometown” advantage got someone unexpectedly elected? Recent election trends appear to favor the previous years final 10, but not uncommon from someone to jump from final 15 right into election – especially those facing upcoming removal from the modern list as their eligibility expires. Not sure if we have any of those in 2016, but need for more defense (Atwater or Lynch), and more recent buzz regarding Davis, could be in play for that final 5th slot for election.
Personally I see this selection like last few, as an opportunity for the HOF voters to finally elect finalists that have been in the discussion recently, ending up in the final 10, now getting elected and “clearing the slate” of repeat finalists so as to open up chances for others in the next few years – that is why I can foresee Harrison, Greene, Pace, and possibly Dungy elected this year. But I never get all 5 correct (and yet to see anyone else able to!) so still likely to be at least one unexpected election.
The biggest example of the “team playing in the Super Bowl” allegedly helping a HOF candidate is Rickey Jackson, who was elected in his first year as a finalist in the same year that the Saints played in their first Super Bowl. Numerous people have noted this as a “surprising” (although well deserved) election that was influenced by the Saints also being in the Super Bowl. It is an example of recency bias. Because the Saints were playing well people started to think more about them and their past stars, including those long overlooked like Rickey Jackson. An example this year could be electors who remember just how dominate Terrell Davis was in the playoffs and the Super Bowl because they are writing stories about the similarities between Manning’s presumed last game and Elway’s last game in Super Bowl XXXIII,
The Rickey Jackson example is obviously antidotal. And no one is ever going to admit that some sort of “Saints-fever” contributed to Jackson’s election. That said, in close circumstances, it is hard to believe that such things don’t have some influence (however settle and perhaps unconscious). Same with the Super Bowl site. Same with groups of players from the same team (Monk and Green). It is not necessarily purposeful, but everyone likes a good story, and journalists more than most.
If there was one surprise candidate to get into the Hall of Fame this as a modern nominee who would it be? I would say either Joe Jacoby or Terrell Davis.
I’ve thought Joe Jacoby would be most likely to surprise. His candidacy has never been considered before and his eligibility is almost up, only one more year after this one. He could do anything from make a full run in to spin his wheels and go nowhere.
You think Edgerrin James has a small shot, even 1%? He was incredible in prime. His first 2 years resulted in rushing titles(1,553 and 1,709) and very good receiving yard totals(586 and 593), 17 and 18 total TDs. 2 years later he follows it up with 5 straight 1k seasons, including 2 over 1,500 yards. He also has the 11th most yards rushing yards in post season history. It’s a shame he left the year before they won the SB. Anyway, other than that, Morten Andersen I could see sneak in. He was named to the ADTs of 1980s and 1990s and his accolades are 5/7. Pretty strong resume, especially being the all time leading scorer. Another kicker to look at for future is Gary Anderson but also Adam Vinatieri. I think I remember him saying he wants to kick well into his 40s. He is about 3 years away from becoming the all time leading scorer. He doesn’t have a strong resume as far as APs/PBs/ADTs like Morten does, but he is the most clutch kicker ever. His overall resume is not just those famous kicks in SB. When it comes to FG % has 5 seasons with 90% or higher and 13 seasons with 80% or higher. He left a couple years before Brady and Pats team put up TD left and right in 2007. He would have that many more EXPs made if he stayed during then. Stephen Gostkowski was kicker, who has put together somewhat of an interesting career. He has lead the league in points 5x, but not just because of EXPs. He has made 87% of his FGs. Yes he missed an extra point in playoffs but he has made all but 1 in regular season out of 502 attempts and is 24-26 in playoffs on FGs. That is clutch and incredibly accurate.. He could be the kicker of the late 2000s-2020s that ends up in the HOF. David Akers could have been but needed to play another 5 years to have a very compiling case. As much as I am a Jet fan, Stephen has my vote for 2010s ADT kicker.
Don’t see Edgerrin James getting in at all this year and feel pretty confident he’ll one of the first five cuts. But down the road, definitely being voted in.
And any discussion of elite kickers not in should definitely include Nick Lowery.
With only one pure kicker in the HOF, until Morten Andersen is elected – possible in the next few years – I would delay any thought of more kickers as it seems to be a one in 20+ years cycle with HOF voters via modern candidates
After LT in 2017, the RB crop looks pretty weak for the next several years of HOF elections, plenty of time for EJ to get elected. I do not foresee any immediate drive or interest in EJ as a candidate, until he first moves into final 10 during an election year – no so sure that even happens this year.
Joe Jacoby is an interesting case (I am a supporter) in light of his limited time as a modern candidate – that has saved some candidates in the past but not others. This year I see it hard to believe he would jump over Pace or that the final 5 would include two OL given the quality of finalists (plus a OL on the senior candidate ballot). If 2017 is truly his last year as a modern, if Pace is elected 2016, path could be wide open for Jacoby next year.
I’m actually on the fence regarding Joe Jacoby (3/4/80s), though I won’t complain if he gets elected. But if he gets in, am definitely thinking Mike Kenn (3/5/none) also deserves induction. Kenn has been a semifinalist a couple times and has two more eligible years left; Jacoby has only one year left if he doesn’t make it in this year. Kenn likely doesn’t reach finalist, am guessing. Marvin Powell is also 3/5/none and if memory serves only Senior eligible now.
Also agreed that LaDanian Tomlinson, Terrell Davis, and Edgerrin James likely will be the only RBs to get in for a long while. In fact, it likely won’t be until Frank Gore and Adrian Peterson become eligible that we’ll see any RB finalists after them.
I agree that no other Rb will be a finalist outside AP and Frank Gore. But, I am still puzzled Corey Dillon has yet to make the preliminary ballot. I look at the other names, I could honestly make a case CD was better than any of them, especially when you talk about how long Corey played at a high level vs Brian Westbrook or Priest Holmes and others. I am a supporter of Shaun Alexander. He is the only offensive player with 100+ TDs(rushing+receiving) not in HOF(the others who aren’t will get in and some aren’t even eligible yet)
Corey Dillon was never a 1st team All Pro member and is similar to many other top 20 career rushers including several 10,000 yard rushers with limited awards all pro teams etc…., all from the same era (1990s to 2000s decade) who are simply not going to get into the HOF. I think once the HOF elects the RBs from the 2000 and 2010 all decade team, I am not so sure any others are getting in as the RB position is quickly being downgraded.
Paul: It will certainly take a very special player (someone like A. Peterson) for any future RB to be inducted at the current “standard.” However, it is possible that voters will simply create a new “standard” for future RBs. Lower career totals, consider pass catching more, etc. I could foresee a future where RBs look and act a lot more like Larry Centers and a lot less like Jerome Bettis. If that doesn’t happen, then Peterson will likely hold the title of the last great RB. And presumably more WRs and TEs will become HOFers.
Something interesting to chew on.
Personally I’d pick:
Brett Favre
Kevin Greene
Marvin Harrison
Orlando Pace
Steve Atwater (or Lynch, but start addressing the safety backlog)
Stabel
Stanfel
But then the HoF selection committee and I often don’t agree.
On RBs these things tend to go in cycles. I don’t think the odds of anyone breaking Emmitt Smith’s record any time soon look good, but just when everyone is getting used to downgrading the value of RBs we’ve got some really good ones coming out this year and over the next few that will generate first round and maybe even top 10 buzz.
Todd Gurley is someone to look at for the future, also Doug Martin and Eddie Lacy can be in conversation but both need the next 3-4 years to be special. One RB I wish would stay healthy is Jamaal Charles. He is statistically one of the best backs per rush. As you are all saying, RB position has been downgraded in terms of value in this era; numbers are not what they once was due to the fact they pass way more. I hope Charles can play more seasons and be what he once was. He is going to be 30 soon and we know RBs decline greatly when they hit that age, but stranger things have happened.
I think we know who the first four will be it seems that the fifth spot is a mystery
According to Clark Judge of the Talk of Fame Network, Dungy has lost some steam towards getting elected this year.
any particular reason why rob
He said according to ESPN 700 out of Salt Lake City the board is divided on Dungy. He also said some voters would rather go with Warner than Dungy.
that’s interesting rob you think they would go that route
I think its possible. It has been done in the past with 2 modern era quarterbacks elected in the same year 2006 Warren Moon and Troy Aikman. 2005 Steve Young and Dan Marino. He also mentioned in his show today a lot of people are pushing for Joe Jacoby.
Like everyone else I’m going with the modern era 4 of:
Favre
Greene
Pace
Harrison
The 5th spot is totally wide open.
I’m also interested to see who finishes 6-10 as this will give a clue to next year’s Class where Tomlinson is the only first ballot lock. Brian Dawkins and Jason Taylor should be finalists next year and I hope to see Jimmy Johnson back in the Top 15.
I think the class will include
1. Brett Favre
2. Orlando Pace
3. Marvin Harrison
4. Kevin Greene
5. Terrell Davis
6. Ken Stabler
7. Eddie DeBartolo
8. Dick Stanfel
Hopefully Jacoby, Lynch and Atwater all have legitimate shots next year
It’d be nice if this was finally Stanfel’s year. If only he was alive for it.
I’m going with Favre, Pace, Greene, Harrison, Dungy, Stanfel and DeBartolo.
I’m not sold on DeBartolo myself, but I think he’ll get the votes.
Selection meeting lasted 8 Hours 46 Minutes.
According to Pete Dougherty of the Green Bay Gazette James Lofton and Dan Fouts who audited the HOF meeting are expected to be selectors next year.
The longest discussion of the HOF meeting was Eddie DeBartolo Jr. at 50 minutes, 33 seconds. The shortest? Brett Favre at six seconds.
Other lengthy discussions at HOF meeting: Terrell Owens 43:12, Kevin Greene 27:28, Kurt Warner 27:14, Orlando Pace 26:45 & Tony Dungy 25:57
Rick Gosselin.
Morten Andersen tweeted he didn’t get voted in.
Joe Jacoby didn’t get elected this year.
Eddie Debartolo has been elected to the Pro Football Hall of Fame.
Marvin Harrison was elected to the Hall of Fame per Jim Irsay.
Ken Stabler elected to the Hall of Fame.
Terrell Owens tweeted he didn’t get elected into the Hall of Fame.
Terrell Owens did not make it.
I knew TO had a small chance. Next year he should be the frontrunner with LT.
Tony Dungy elected to the Hall of Fame.
Too bad about DeBartolo getting in. Hype over substance and character. At least Harrison got in over TO.
Terrell Davis and John Lynch did not make the Hall of Fame.
Steve Atwater did not make it either.
Stanfel? Greene?
So far … pace Dungy Harrison stabler debartlo
Official NFL announcement 845p EST
Oh yea and Favre
This is an offensively heavy class
Looks last slot coming down to Greene vs Warner
Brad: Well Dungy was a defensive-minded coach and played DB for the 70s Steelers. But, yeah, we knew this was going to be a defensive class.
By not voting in either Lynch or Atwater, the HOF voters have new logjam to deal with Brian Dawkins (in my opinion, better than either Lynch or Atwater) eligible next year and Reed and Polamalu coming soon after.
Saw over at the pfraforum website that Terrell Davis and John Lynch survived the first cut from 15 to 10. They may be setting up Lynch for next year as a start to clearing the coming safety backlog.
Backslunch: Any other word on who else made the cut from 15 to 10?
Nope, nothing else about the 15 to 10 cutback yet.
Greene and Stanfel in
Kevin Green is in.
Kevin Greene I think got in
Favre Pace Harrison Greene Dungy Stabler Stanfel Debartalo
Stunned that my modern predictions made one year ago were correct for the first time ever!
Kurt Warner made the final 10.
Coryell, Lynch, Jacoby, Warner, and Davis survived the cutdown from 15 to 10 according to pfraforum.
Jacoby and Coryell made it to the final 10.
You heard it here first. Next year’s regular electees likely will be Jacoby, Lynch, Davis, Warner, and Tomlinson.
I got 7/8 correct
Im guessing next year will be Terrell Owens,Alan Faneca,LaDainian Tomlinson, Kurt Warner and John Lynch.
Wow TO did not make final ten social media presently melting down
TO will probably get in next year. He and LT have the best #s among the remaining nominees.
Now I am not sure TO gets in next year, after not even final 10 this year my biggest surprise
Totally silly that there’s a social media meltdown about TO not being first ballot. Absolutely no way he was going in immediately. At least TO himself sent a non-meltdown tweet about it, which is smart and (maybe surprisingly) classier than I thought he might be about it.
Jacoby reaching the final 10 bodes well for his election next year. And none too soon, as next year is his last before dropping into the Senior pool.
Not to worry TO supporters are not the only ones freaking out so are those for Warner and TD
Pretty sure Jacoby has two chances left as a “modern era” candidate. I don’t see them putting in two RBs in the same class and I would think that Tomlinson will leapfrog Davis. Then again, I also thought that Harrison would leapfrog Brown and Reed. I wouldn’t think they go as offense heavy next year, which would some to bode well for the chances of a safety getting in. Brian Dawkins has a better case than Atwater or Lynch, but doesn’t seem like a “first ballot” type, so they may just go “next in line” there, though, again, I think Dawkins has the best case of the three. Warner and TO supporters may be freaking out, but they shouldn’t be. I think both are the safest bets for next year’s class. Coryell and Andersen would also seem to have a very good shot as well as either Faneca or Jacoby. Always tough to predict what they’ll do with the Seniors nom (only one next year), but I would think they go defense next time. Contributors? Also a guessing game. I’ll go with Steve Sabol and George Young.
We’ve got an enshrinement post up now (http://www.profootballhof.com/pro-football-hall-of-fames-class-of-2016-announced/) if you want to take discussion over there.
As far as senior committee for next year, I’m pulling for Johnny Robinson at this point off the top of my head, but I also buy strongly into the cases for Chuck Howley and Jerry Kramer. And I’d like to see Jim Tyrer’s name brought up for discussion at some point. That may be a long shot, but given the CTE/concussion data that’s been coming out in recent years, I’m hoping his situation might warrant another look.