Lamar Millerbuying-selling
ADP: 16.9

RB Rank: 7

Fantasy footballers have been waiting for Lamar Miller to get his shot as a true RB1 since he got into the league four years ago. Just once in that time has he eclipsed 200 carries – and yet his career YPC is above 4.5 and he consistently contributes when he gets the chance.

Miller has moved on from Miami, signing with Houston – likely with the promise of a more full-scale load.

So were the Dolphins keeping him on the bench for a reason? Or is Miller a workhorse in waiting heading into his fifth season with relatively low wear and tear?

Andy: Buy

It’s no wonder Houston went after Lamar Miller. The Dolphins had a tough season in 2015, but one highlight was a 44-26 win over the Texans during which Miller skewered the defense to the tune of 175 yards rushing and 61 more in the air.

He punctuated those stats with an 85-yard TD run and a 54-yard TD reception.

Stunningly, Miami followed that win by giving Miller 49 total carries over the next five games – four of which were losses.

Miller has moved on to Houston, which will have the inexperienced Brock Osweiler calling signals. The Texans have a star WR in DeAndre Hopkins and some interesting complementary pieces. However, the best way to take the pressure off of a developing QB is with a good run game. Miller is unlikely to disappear from games as he did in Miami. He may not get 20 touches per game, but he’ll likely average between 15 and 18 regularly, while adding another four to six catches per week.

He averaged 4.5 yards per carry on the 194 attempts he did get, just a hair under the 4.6 yards he’s averaged for his career. Interestingly, the one season he eclipsed 200 carries was 2014 – he averaged 5.1 yards that year. Does that mean with 300 carries he’ll hit 1,500 yards? Maybe not. But at 4.5, he’d hit 1,350.

And then there’s his receiving ability. Under Bill O’Brien, Texans RBs have caught at least 60 passes each year. Last year Arian Foster had 22 catches in the four games he played. Four RBs had 15 or more catches. In 2014, Foster had 38 to pace four RBs who totaled 60 catches. Miller has more in the tank than Foster does. I don’t think it’s out of the question that he catches 75 passes.

Whether I would take him at 16 or 17 would depend on how the chips fall before those picks, but if I ended up with him I’d certainly be fine penciling him in as my RB1.

John Vomhof: Sell

It pains me to write this, but I’m jumping off the Lamar Miller bandwagon this year, just as everyone else starts to pile on.

I’ve always been a big Miller fan, long advocating for him to get more touches in Miami. And now, after signing a big contract with Houston this offseason, he should finally get the workload he deserves.

So why am I selling now? Quite simply, his price tag has gotten far too rich for my taste.

Miller is suddenly going between 15 and 20 overall in early fantasy drafts. A tad high, I think, for a guy who has only topped 875 rushing yards once in four seasons.

Is it possible that he finally breaks out as an elite fantasy RB1? Absolutely, but he darn well better, because now all of that upside is baked into the price.

And isn’t it also possible that maybe, just maybe, Miami knew something we didn’t? They clearly didn’t think he could hold up to any more than 15 touches a game.

I’ll be rooting for Miller to succeed in his new role in Houston, but I’m not willing to bet my fantasy season on it. I’ll pass at this price.

Next Buy or Sell: Thomas Rawls