Tony: After the Super Bowl last year, I predicted to Andy that the Carolina Panthers would not make the playoffs in 2016, largely based on the immaturity shown by Cam Newton after the loss to the Denver Broncos—but also on the level of competitiveness of the rest of the division. I’m not sure I still believe my prediction, because the Panthers still have the fewest questions in the division, even after cutting Josh Norman—but at least two teams in the division do appear to be closing the gap.

Andy: I wonder which of the teams Tony think hasn’t closed the gap.

I like where the Bucs are headed. Jameis Winston was solid as a rookie and should only get better. I am not alone in expecting that Mike Evans will take his already solid play up a notch this year. And while Lavonte David’s prediction that the Bucs’ defense can be the best ever is stunningly laughable, it does have some interesting pieces.

But there are questions. As there are in Atlanta and New Orleans, where, respectively, the ability to rush the passer and the ability to field a professional level defense, are in serious question.

Of the two, I think New Orleans has the offense more capable of overcoming a way subpar defense. Michael Thomas should be a fun-to-watch replacement for Marcus Colston. And Drew Brees can still sling the pig. I question in Atlanta whether Mohamed Sanu can replace the departed Roddy White as Julio Jones’ sidekick. That said, the Matt Ryan-to-Julio Jones combo is always formidable. 

I tend to think Carolina stands as the cream of the crop here. I have no clue how the rest of the division shakes out, but I would guess that if I was trying to make a living in Vegas casinos, betting the over would be the smart play in most of the head-to-head games here.

Tony: Yes, the Bucs are the team that seems to be closing the gap with the Panthers most rapidly, and I agree that the Saints might be in the better position for this year—but I actually think the Falcons are in the better position in the long run. Sanu might not be the flashy WR signing, but that may be a trap best avoided by a team like the Falcons, who are more than a flashy WR away from competing. Instead, they bolstered the offensive line with Alex Mack, and the defensive line with Derrick Shelby, who didn’t break the bank like Oliver Vernon, but was productive both against the pass and run in his time in Miami.

Meanwhile, the Saints seemingly ignored their defense in free agency (adding sub-par James Laurinaitis and inexperienced Nathan Stupar), while giving a pile of cash to Coby Fleener in an attempt to replace the incredibly odd season from Ben Watson. Fleener may finally put all the pieces together—but you have to wonder if a strictly pass catching TE was the best investment. They did add defensive help in the first two rounds of the draft in Sheldon Rankins and Vonn Bell, but with only five picks overall, and another Drew Brees monster cap number looming, this team seems to just be floundering.

Andy: I agree that Fleener was not the wisest investment for the Saints, though Brees has a long history of using his TEs well (see aforementioned Watson). And you’re probably right about the intelligence of some of the Falcons moves. But I still see the Saints and Atlanta going back and forth all season for the cellar in 2016. So whichever team emerges as the better of the dreck, who cares?

Tony: They may battle for the spot on the elevator this season, but one team seems to be looking to take it up, while the other seems to be continuing the long ride down.

Tony’s Prediction:
Carolina
Tampa Bay
Atlanta
New Orleans

Andy’s Prediction:
Carolina
Tampa Bay
New Orleans
Atlanta