So perhaps it’s for the best that the season ends Sunday.

The New York Giants and New England engage in their rematch. Tell you what — I thought I had a pretty good read on their first Super Bowl matchup. I picked the Patriots to win the AFC and the Super Bowl during a trek to Vegas before training camp started.

And it looked pretty good until David Tyree pinned that miracle catch to his helmet, ultimately helping cost me a nice payday.

I was pretty confident in the Patriots that season. I feel less strongly about either of the participants this year. The Giants are playing the more well-rounded football right now. But the Patriots offense can come together and outscore anyone when they are on.

I picked the Patriots to win straight-up in our other post, but I don’t feel strongly about it. So what would I do if I was in Vegas this time around?

New England (-3) vs New York Giants — Ultimately this game feels to me like a toss-up. I don’t really have any idea who is going to win or by how much. It sounds like Bill Belichick has been more relaxed than normal in the week leading up to the game. And as my brother mentioned in our pick post the other day, that makes me suspicious that he has found something.

But ultimately this bet comes down to this: at the casinos where you can get the Patriots at -3 right now, you’re generally getting them at +100 or even +105 as opposed to the standard -110 for the Giants at +3. So if I’m going to flip a coin to decide which team to bet on I might as well get the better payoff if I win.

New England vs New York Giants: Under 54 — I actually feel a little bit better about this pick than the other one. The Giants have only given up 39 points in three playoff games, including holding explosive Green Bay to 20 points, 14 of which could be directly attributed to questionable officiating calls. And while the Patriots have been abysmal defensively all season long, they’ve given up just 30 points in two playoff games.

Plus, I like Bill Belichick’s chances of coming up with some clever way to limit Tom Coughlin, Eli Manning, Hakeem Nicks, Victor Cruz, et al.
I’m not necessarily expecting this to be a low-scoring game. The offenses are too good. But I expect a game much like many of the Vegas experts cited in the linked piece do — close until the end with the teams ultimately scoring somewhere in the mid-20s. How about 28-24 Patriots?

Works for me.

Maybe I can turn it around this weekend.

Baltimore (+7.5) at New England – The three teams that beat New England this year had a couple things in common. They were able to put pressure on Tom Brady and force him into mistakes. And in the case of Pittsburgh, they garnered a huge edge in time of possession, minimizing the opportunities Brady had to make plays. The Ravens have been far better at home than on the road, which makes me a bit nervous about this pick. But Baltimore still had the second-best scoring defense in the AFC. If Terrell Suggs can get pressure on Brady and Ray Rice can eat up chunks of yards I think the Ravens can keep this closer than seven points, if not win the game outright.

Baltimore vs New England: Under 50.5 – Baltimore has not played in a game that went over 50 points since beating Cincinnati 31-24 on Nov. 20. New England has not played in a game that went under 50 since beating Kansas City 34-3 on Nov. 21. As mentioned, if this game turns into a shootout, New England is going to win. But the Ravens have the running game to shorten the game and the defense to make the Patriots work harder for their scores than most teams do. It’ll be right around 50, but if I believe the Ravens are going to win, I have to believe it is going to go under.

San Francisco (-2.5) vs New York Giants – I had been seriously impressed with San Francisco throughout the regular season, but I never took them seriously as a Super Bowl contender. Then last week happened. The 49ers have the second-best scoring defense in the league and they might be the most fundamentally sound tackling unit I’ve seen in years. Hakeem Nicks might score this weekend but it won’t be because a defensive back tried to shoulder tackle him without wrapping up. Alex Smith looks pretty good too. The Giants were ho-hum during most of the regular season but they’ve caught fire. This game is a tossup to me, but if forced to make a decision, I’ll go old school and pick the team that can best fall back on running the ball and playing defense, which with a healthy Frank Gore, is San Francisco.

New York Giants vs San Francisco: Over 42 – Both defenses are playing well right now, but both teams offenses were forced to click last week, as well. It won’t go much over 42, but I expect something like a 24-21 game won on a last second field goal – by David Akers, in this scenario.

Unfortunately it was the only bet I got right last week. I thought the underdogs would fare better in the Cincinnati v Houston and Atlanta v New York Giants games. And I sure as hell didn’t see Denver knocking off Pittsburgh.

So it goes, I guess. The beauty of it in the imaginary world of blogging is regardless of how much mythical money I lost on last week’s games, I can always try again this week.
Best Bets:

New Orleans (-3.5) at San Francisco – The Saints have won nine in a row including their playoff triumph over Detroit last week. The margins in the last seven have been 17, 28, 29, 22, 5, 14 and 25. New Orleans is rolling. The 49ers have also been winning, but far less convincingly. It’s been a great revival season in the city by the bay and the defense will keep this game closer than most Saints opponents have lately, but I think the Big Easy will be having the celebration this weekend that it was denied after Alabama beat LSU. It feels like a touchdown to 10 point spread to me.

Houston (+7.5) at Baltimore – I know the Ravens are undefeated at home this season but I’m still having a hard time buying into Baltimore due to their struggles at times against some pretty mundane opposition. Joe Flacco has not impressed in the games I have seen. Meanwhile, I didn’t believe in Houston last week and the Texans went out and destroyed Cincinnati. I expect Baltimore will win this game, but I think Houston keeps it close. They lost three games at the end of the season but one was by a field goal and one was by a single point. I think that’s the type of game you’re looking at here.

Green Bay (-8.5) vs New York Giants – Sweep Dallas, but get swept by Washington. Beat New England, but lose to Seattle. Who can figure out this year’s New York Giants? The Packers weren’t playing their best football the last few weeks of the season, but they’ll benefit from having had the week off and they’ll play with a little extra boost, I think, to not let down offensive coordinator Joe Philbin, who may miss the game while mourning the death of his son, Michael. The Giants could make a mess of this game if they can generate enough pass rush on Aaron Rodgers. It’s the only way they keep this close. The Packers are not the Falcons. New York will not keep Green Bay off the scoreboard. For what it is worth I also would be the over 52.5, as I think the Giants will score – just not enough.

Denver vs New England: Over 51 – A healthy Tom Brady will put up more points against Denver than Pittsburgh did. The Patriots have too many weapons. Denver will score too, though. Bill Belichick might have some wrinkles for stopping Tim Tebow, but New England’s defense is not good. I think the spread (13.5) feels about right to me. So I’ll pass on that bet and take the over.

My brother, on the other hand, needed a 3-1 week 17 to improve to 31-37 for the year, a mark so low he ran out of money for the rest of the season. So, while he participated in our straight-up picks on who would win the games, he’s sitting out the point spread segment for the playoffs. Here are my best guesses for what this week’s wild card weekend will have in store.

Best Bets

Cincinnati (+3) at Houston – I like the direction the Texans are heading in the years ahead. The defense made incredible strides this season. But they enter the playoffs beat up on both sides of the ball. The Bengals are not playing great either, but they will win their first playoff game since 1990.

Detroit at New Orleans: Over 58 – The Saints are favored by 10.5. I do expect them to win, but that’s a big number, particularly considering how many points Detroit is capable of putting on the board. So I’d have a hard time putting much on the spread. But that does put the over squarely in play. Detroit has been at 34 or higher in three of their last four games. The Saints average 40 at home this season and have exceeded 40 in four of their last six. If they get close to that number this should go over comfortably.

Atlanta (+3) at New York Giants – The Falcons ended the season with a better record (10-6 vs 9-7) than the Giants and they accomplished that task in a more competitive division. Save for a bad game against surging New Orleans, the Falcons finished the season on a pretty good run the last four games as well. New York looked good against Dallas Sunday night and they will be a worthy foe, but the Falcons will pull the upset.

Pittsburgh (+7.5) at Denver – The Steelers don’t enter the playoffs on a good run by any stretch, but let’s face it. Denver doesn’t belong in the playoffs. They backed in because the AFC West is the worst division in football. Tim Tebow looked terrible the last month of the season. And Pittsburgh is pretty darn good at stopping the run, which is the one thing Denver does competently on offense. Six-game winning streak aside, I don’t think the Broncos are a very good team and I don’t expect them to stay competitive in this game. Once Denver is eliminated the real playoffs can start.

It’s even harder picking games several days out, because games that look like they could potentially be important at 3 p.m. central time could be rendered meaningless by the results of games kicking off at noon.

Nonetheless, we’ve cobbled together some picks we think make sense. With last week’s results (Andy 2-2, Tony 0-4), Tony clinched a losing record (28-36 heading into week 17) for the season while I clinched a winning record (34-29-1). Neither one of us will be scaring off the actual betting experts, but what the heck. Here goes:Andy

Pittsburgh (-7) at Cleveland – At one point the Browns were 3-3. Now they’re 4-11, having lost eight of nine. Most of them have been fairly competitive, but it’s probably about time for this team to throw up a clunker, as it finished a brutal six-game, season-ending stretch of games that will have included two against the Steelers, two against the Ravens and another against playoff-hopeful Cincinnati. The Steelers will be playing Cleveland with an eye on the Baltimore/Cincinnati tilt, hoping the Bengals can pull off an upset that would give Pittsburgh a chance at the AFC North division championship and a bye. Here’s guessing they come out and put Cleveland away early.

Indianapolis (+3.5) at Jacksonville – The Colts seem to have found themselves the last couple weeks under the leadership of Dan Orlovsky. In successive weeks they’ve put a serious crimp in the playoff hopes of the Tennessee Titans and relegated the Houston Texans to the third-seed with a last-second comeback win. Jacksonville’s only win in the last six weeks was against a Tampa Bay team that quit playing a long time ago. I’ll gladly take the Colts and the points and hope that Indy continues in its efforts to play so well in meaningless games that it screws up its stranglehold on Andrew Luck.

San Francisco (-10.5) at St. Louis – The 49ers have lost two of their last six games and have not been completely dominant in many of the games they have won recently. The biggest exceptions were a 20-3 Monday night whitewashing of Pittsburgh and a 26-0 win at home against these same St. Louis Rams. The incentive to show up this Sunday is there with the opportunity to tie up a first-round bye in the playoffs. The stronger incentive for St. Louis is getting the season over, as it appears they shut down about six weeks ago. They’ve lost all those games, only once scoring more than 13 points and being shut out twice during that span. Assuming the 49ers don’t mess around early they should get a nice lead and win easily.

Upset of the week:

New York Jets (+2.5, +120) at Miami: It’s hard to know just what constitutes an upset in week 17. The numbers say Miami is the favorite in this game and the line has actually been moving in Miami’s direction throughout the week. Miami’s lone incentive in this game is knocking their rival out of the playoffs. But the Jets are 4-1 in their last five visits to Miami. And though they’ve been inconsistent, I do think the Jets are simply the better team here. It’ll be a low-scoring, ugly game, but the Jets will prevail.

Tony

New England (-11) vs Buffalo – The Patriots need a win to lock up the top seed (or losses by the Steelers AND Ravens). Even with a defense that occasionally appears over-matched, they stomp the Bills in a postseason tune up to send a signal to the rest of the AFC.

Green Bay (+3.5) vs Detroit – Realizing that a good chunk of the Packers may sit half (or more) of this one out, the game is still in Green Bay, and the Packers defense has something to prove. The Lions are already in the playoffs, so the game doesn’t matter much for them either, and they still haven’t really proven they can play outside in the cold.

Baltimore at Cincinnati: Over 38 – Baltimore has a lot on the line, with a bye if they win, and a road trip in the first round if they lose.  I’m not convinced they pull of the victory, to be honest—they seem like the kind of team that could choke in a game like this.  But with two solid defenses like this, logic says it should be low scoring—so bet the over.

Upset of the Week: Indianapolis (+3.5, +170 moneyline) at Jacksonville – My go big or go home pick of the week would have been Tampa Bay over Atlanta, but I just don’t see that one happening, even though Atlanta really has nothing to gain by winning.  So I’ll go back to the well with the Colts, who could manage to really screw up the draft board if they win and the 49ers take care of the Rams.  Two weeks ago people in Minnesota were asking if the Vikings would really pick Andrew Luck with the #1 pick (or trade it) with Christian Ponder being taken #12 overall last year. Now the question around the country could be what will the Rams do with Sam Bradford and the #1 pick?

Tony only hit two of his four bets last week but he nailed his upset of the week, calling Indy’s first win of the season with a +245 payoff. He’s going out on an even bigger limb with his upset pick this week.

The 2-2 mark puts him at 28-32 for the season.

All in all it would have been a good weekend for both of us to be watching games from a sports book in Sin City. It feels to me like the lines on week 16 games are a little bit tougher, but we’ll make another run at it. Here goes:

Andy

Houston (-6) at Indianapolis — We know the balance of power in the AFC South has shifted to Houston this season. Indianapolis got a win, narrowly avoiding the ugly fate of going winless. But they are still a bad team. And Houston needs to rebound from a clunker at home last weekend against Carolina. The line opened up at 7.5 and I’m not sure I would have taken the Texans to beat that spread. But when it shifted to 6 it became a pretty good spread, as even when the Colts had kept games relatively close, they’d still lost by a touchdown or more in eight straight before taking out Tennessee last week.

St. Louis at Pittsburgh: Under 37 — St. Louis has been terrible. In the last five games, the Rams have been held to 13 points or fewer four times, including one shutout at the hands of San Francisco. Perhaps more surprisingly, Pittsburgh has not scored more than 14 points in three of its last four games. The Steelers will win this game, but also likely will try to give Ben Roethlisberger an opportunity to rest his ailing ankle by relying more on the run than they have most of the season. It’ll be a lower scoring game than people might think.

Atlanta at New Orleans: Over 53 — New Orleans is a completely different team at home, having put up 31, 49, 27, 62, 40 and 30 in its six home games this season. Atlanta, however, has been very comfortable on the road in recent weeks, winning four of its last five away from the Georgia Dome and scoring 30 or more in three of those wins. My brother would look at this game and call it a classic “do the opposite of what you’d expect” kind of bet. But both teams have a lot to play for and I would expect both offenses to be primed for big performances. This could be a track meet.

Upset of the week: Seattle (+2.5, +120) vs San Francisco — Seattle has won five of six and has scored 30 points or more in three straight games. They’ve reached .500 and have slim playoff hopes as they close the home portion of their schedule. San Francisco is coming off a tough Monday night win against Pittsburgh. I think the Seahawks have a shot to pull yet another upset.

Tony

NY Jets (-3) vs NY Giants – The Giants have only been consistent in coming up short when they need it most this year. Talent wise I think they should beat the Jets. Mental mistakes will cost them the playoffs, though.

Chicago (+13) at Green Bay – I think Chicago’s defense is a step up from the Chiefs, who gave the Bears a blueprint to work with. The Packers offensive line is suffering through multiple injuries (again), which will wear on them, and losing Greg Jennings hurt worse than anyone expected, as the rest of the receivers continued to suffer the dropsies. I don’t expect the Bears to win (or I would make them my upset of the week), but in this rivalry game it should be closer than two TDs.

Detroit vs San Diego: over 52 – Do I bet the opposite of what I think will happen, or opposite of what should happen? A huge part of me wants to take the under–San Diego on the road, Norv Turner, Lions run game. So logically I’ll take the over.

Upset of the week: St. Louis (+15.5, +975) at Pittsburgh – Go big or go home. Assuming Big Ben is still hurt.

Tony had been on a pretty good run, but he slipped to 1-3 last week, dropping to 26-30 for the season.

Here’s some more food for thought and (non-guaranteed) cash for your pocket, err, reading material for when you’re boss is away from the office.

Andy

Dallas (-6) at Tampa Bay – The Buccaneers aren’t the most disappointing team in the NFL this season, and they have lost seven consecutive games, a stretch during which the team’s closest loss is by six points. Dallas has lost two in a row. But they are not playing that badly, having won four in a row before the last second defeats. As long as this game does not come down to a last-second field goal the Cowboys should win this comfortably, even without DeMarco Murray running the ball.

New England (-6.5) at Denver – Tim Tebow is the buzzword of the season so far, but in reality the Broncos’ six-game win streak has been powered by a defense that has improved dramatically from the beginning of the season. But they’ve also benefitted from playing a schedule that has included Kansas City, Minnesota, Chicago minus Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, and San Diego and New York when the Chargers and the Jets were slumping. The Patriots also are amidst a five-game win streak, during which they have scored 37, 34, 38, 31 and 34 points. Denver, on the other hand, has scored 18, 10, 17, 17, 16 and 13 in six of the eight games Tebow has started. If Tebow can pull this one out I’ll consider starting to maybe become a believer. Until then I’m betting on Belichick and Brady. (Incidentally, as a bonus bet, I’d go over 46, as well. I expect the Patriots to win comfortably, but Denver will score some points on New England’s shaky defense.)

New Orleans (-7) at Minnesota – Eight of the Vikings’ 11 losses have been by seven or fewer points, so it’s not like the team has quit fighting. But the team’s defensive backs are terrible and the team has given up 165 points – or 33 a game – over the last five, even making Tebow look like an All-Pro. Drew Brees is still better than the Broncos’ signal-caller and, though his road stats aren’t as gaudy as his home ones, he’ll feel at home playing against Minnesota. The Saints are fighting for a bye and they’ll get one step closer this week in a comfortable win at the Metrodome.

Upset of the week:

Seattle (+4.5, +180) at Chicago – Chicago under Caleb Hanie’s direction has lost three in a row, scoring 33 points in three games and appearing to get progressively worse each week. Seattle has been surprisingly strong, improving to 6-7 with two strong 30-plus point performances the last two weeks during a season in which I expected they’d be sucking for Andrew Luck. The Seahawks aren’t as good on the road as they are at home, but it was clear during the last two games that they are playing with confidence and physicality. I wouldn’t expect them to hit 30 again – in fact I’d take the under in this game pretty confidently – but if they can get into the low 20s that should be enough to beat the toothless Bears.

Tony

Minnesota (+7) vs New Orleans – If I were a betting man, I would guess Andy will take the Saints and give the points (obviously we write these independent of one another). But the Vikings have lost 8 games by 7 points or fewer (granted, several of those were lost leads), and the Saints play significantly poorer on the road that at home. I do not think the Vikings will win, but I think they can keep it within seven.

Seattle (+4) at Chicago – The Bears have lost Jay Cutler and Matt Forte, and last week managed to Tebow themselves out of a win thanks to Marion Barber. The Seahawks have been playing surprisingly well for a team led by Tarvaris Jackson, thanks primarily to Marshawn Lynch.  I would consider taking them as my upset of the week, in fact, because I do expect them to win outright–but in keeping with my recent trend of picking bigger games, I’ve got a special upset for this week.

Cleveland at Arizona: Over 37.5 – Finally getting back to my theory: “If there is no way it can happen, bet for it to happen.”

Upset of the Week:
Indianapolis (+6.5, +245) vs Tennessee – Call it a hunch, but I don’t think the Colts go 0-16. They’ve got a chance to beat the Titans, especially with questions at quarterback for the Titans.

I nailed my week 14, going 4-0 and running my four-week stretch to 12-4, 7-1 in the last two weeks. The run has allowed me to overtake my brother, with a 25-26-1 mark for the season.

Tony violated two of his main betting philosophies (he took the under and he didn’t “do the opposite”) in taking the under in the Denver/Minnesota contest, but he hit his other three picks – including the +330 moneyline in predicting the Chiefs would upset the Bears. He must have had a hunch Matt Forte would get hurt. His second straight 3-1 runs his total for the season to 25-27.

Here’s hoping it continues.
Andy

Pittsburgh vs Cleveland: Under 39 – In researching this game I was stunned to find out just how bad Cleveland has been offensively this season. They’ve exceeded 17 points just twice and one of those two games came at Indianapolis. The stats aren’t going to get any better against Pittsburgh. Defensively, however, the Browns have shown competence. And they are pretty good against the pass. The Steelers are primarily a passing team these days, but they can get by on the ground if they must. This will be a fast game with few points scored in a Steelers win.

Detroit (-7) vs Minnesota – No definitive word yet on Adrian Peterson, but there is plenty of talk about Detroit’s offense. They got stymied a bit against New Orleans, but they should come back strong against a pathetic Vikings’ secondary. There isn’t any reason to think Minnesota can stay close against this unit.

Seattle (-6.5) vs St. Louis – I don’t plan to watch this dog of a Monday nighter unless I need to know Marshawn Lynch’s stat-line for fantasy football purposes. But I do think there is money to be made gambling on this one. In the five games since St. Louis upset New Orleans, the Rams have scored 0, 20, 7, 13 and 13 points, these scores coming against powerhouses such as Arizona, Cleveland and this same Seattle team. The Rams are dogs. Seattle has not been lighting up the scoreboard, but has been playing well, winning three of four, and getting solid play from Lynch and, at times, even Tarvaris Jackson. I’m betting here on Seattle to beat the spread but I also would consider the under.

Upset of the week:

New York Giants (-5.5, +155) at Dallas – After thrashing Buffalo in mid-November, Dallas has since won two of three. But those wins included a three pointer over Washington and a one pointer against Miami at home on Thanksgiving. The loss came to a semi-plucky Arizona squad after Jason Garrett unintentionally iced his own kicker. The Giants are coming off of four straight losses, but the three-point defeat at the hands of Green Bay sort of felt to me like the game they played at the end of the 2007 regular season against undefeated New England. They lost that game 38-35 as well, but didn’t lose again on the way toward upsetting the Patriots in the Super Bowl. I kind of doubt the Giants have another Super Bowl run in them this year, but they’ve won three of four against Dallas, including the two contests at the Jerry Jones palace. I think that streak continues.

Tony

Cleveland (+13.5) at Pittsburgh – No way do I expect Cleveland to win this game. But Cleveland has only given up three TD passes in their last 8 games, so I think they can at least keep it closer than two touchdowns. I’m just glad that it looks like my fantasy team that relies on the Big Ben/Wallace/Antonio Brown combo appears to have a bye this week.

New England (-8) at Washington – Washington just lost two key components of their offense via four-game suspensions. Their defense has been vulnerable all year, despite Brian Orakpo’s stunning Geico commercials, and the Redskins are particularly susceptible against tight ends, where they had given up the seventh most fantasy points against in the five weeks before the Jets game last week, and 13th most for the season. Obviously this isn’t fantasy football – but the way Tom Brady has been connecting with Rob Gronkowski, you have to wonder if Brady doesn’t have a 9-point play set up on his own fantasy team (I’m sure he plays – he’s got nothing better to do during his down time).

Houston at Cincinnati: Over 37.5 – I’m done with the unders. Find a low O/U number, go with the over. I’m not crazy enough to take the over 36.5 on the Bears/Broncos matchup, but 37.5 seems attainable given the two offenses involved. Both teams are better known for defense and running attacks, but 24-17 shouldn’t be too tough to reach.

Minnesota (+8, +335 money line) vs. Detroit – Detroit has been playing undisciplined football as of late, and will still be without Ndonknowhowtospell’ka Suh. The Vikings have played close in many of their losses this year, and may be getting Adrian Peterson back in the lineup. I’d prefer to take the points, but at +335, I’ll take them straight up. It’s that, or the +400 Chiefs at NYJets, or +1000 Colts at Baltimore–both of which I actually considered.

So this morning I did the math. It’s been even worse than I thought. Tony started off alright, going 6-2 in the season’s opening two weeks.

It’s been all downhill from there. He’s 16-24 since for a total of 22-26. He rallied a bit in week 12, hitting three of four.

My totals are even worse at 21-26-1, though I’ve been on a bit of a good run the last three weeks, rallying at 8-4. I also hit three of four last week.

So maybe we can salvage something from these picks by the time the season ends. Here goes with week 13. Good luck.
Andy

Denver (+1.5) vs Minnesota – This is moving toward being a pick ‘em game as the week rolls on. Minnesota is still okay against the run, but not as good as it has been in recent years. Remi Ayodele has been invisible in his attempt to replace Pat Williams at nose tackle. Tim Tebow may get an opportunity to test out his passing arm in this one too, as the Vikings’ secondary is disgusting. Tebow is 5-1 as a starter. The defense has done a lot of the work in those games, but you have to give the unconventional quarterback credit for leading the team on several late comeback wins. I don’t think he’ll need the last minute heroics this week. Denver keeps the run going, winning comfortably.

Detroit at New Orleans: Under 54.5 – This will be a high scoring game. Both teams generally put up a lot of points. But 54.5 is a high number. The Saints put up 49 against the Giants on Monday, but in the three games previous, during which the point totals for the game would have gone under 54.5, they’d scored just 26, 27 and 21. I suspect they reach 30 this weekend against Detroit, particularly with defensive tackle Ndamukong Suh suspended. But even the high-powered Lions have only played in four games that eclipsed 54.5 this season. And Detroit has scored fewer than 20 points in four of its last six games, all of them losses.

New Orleans (-9) vs Detroit – As stated above, the Lions have lost four of six with the offense contributing 19 or fewer points in those losses. The Lions are 4-1 on the road this season but it seems to me that is more a factor of who they’ve played rather than the sign of being a particularly good road team. Conversely, the Saints have scored 49, 27, 62, 40 and 30 points in five home games this year. Drew Brees will have a field day against the Suh-less pass rush and on his home turf. The Lions will still put up some points, but in the end will not be able to keep up. This line started at 6. I would have been more comfortable with that. But I’ll guess the final difference is about 10 and still go with the Saints.

Upset of the week:

Seattle (+2, +125) vs Philadelphia – The Eagles are free-falling. The defense looked lost against New England. Seattle doesn’t have the same level of weaponry the Patriots do, but they are running the ball well, which should give the Eagles fits. And they stop the run well, which could neutralize Philly’s most consistent weapon of this season, LeSean McCoy. I expect the Seahawks to win a relatively low-scoring game, further crushing the high hopes the Eagles had coming into the 2011 season.

Tony

Seattle (+3) vs Philadelphia – I have Seattle pegged to win, as the Eagles appear to be in a tailspin, but at +130 on the money line, I’ll take the points rather than making it my upset of the week.

Tennessee (+1.5) at Buffalo – Buffalo seems like another team that’s in a bit of a tailspin and Chris Johnson seems to have started to finally earn some of the money he got after holding out.

Denver at Minnesota: Under 37.5 – I still hate taking the under on any game, and this one in particular seems like a “Do the Opposite” type of betting situation—but even as much as I want to, I can’t find a way that Denver scores more than 16, and yet I think they win.

Upset of the Week:

Kansas City (+8, +330 money line) at Chicago – True, I don’t have Kansas City picked to win in our picks this week—but at +330, against the Bears backup QB, I’ll make them the big money upset pick of the week.

Tony hit two of four picks in week 11, up from zero the week before. I was right on two of my three normal picks. My upset pick (Cincinnati [+7/+250 moneyline] over Baltimore was right against the spread. But the Bengals failed to finish the straight up win. We’ve been considering the upset pick to be am upset straight up, so I guess I can’t claim a win there.

So … I suppose you should probably keep looking elsewhere if you’re really looking to make a killing at the sports book.

Nonetheless, it fills space, so we’ll keep throwing our thoughts out there. Here goes for week 12:
Andy:

Arizona (+3) at St. Louis – Before running into a surprisingly good San Francisco team last week Arizona had strung together three straight pretty good games, encompassing two wins and a close comeback loss to Baltimore. St. Louis has scored 33 points the last three weeks and is 1-4 at home this season. I think the Cardinals win this outright.

Green Bay vs Detroit: Under 55.5 – Detroit and Green Bay bring two of the4 most prolific offenses in the league to the early Thanksgiving game. And there will be plenty of scoring. But they won’t hit 55.5. Before the 49-35 aerial assault show Detroit and Carolina put on last weekend, Detroit had not played in a game that reached 55.5 points since week four against Dallas. Even the explosive Packers would only have gone over that number twice in half of its last six games. The Lions have a defensive line uniquely suited toward making life rough for Aaron Rodgers, as illustrated by the 7-3 Detroit victory in the latter stages of the 2010 season. I expect this to get close to 55.5, but miss by a couple points.

Pittsburgh (-10.5) at Kansas City – The Steelers are coming off a bye week. Before that the team went 2-1 in a tough stretch of games against Baltimore, Cincinnati and New England. Kansas City has given up 82 points in the last three games. Even worse for the Chiefs, they’ve scored 16 in the last three. Tyler Palko looked competent for a half as the Patriots took some time to figure him out. Once they did they toyed with him. Now that the Steelers have some tape? Pittsburgh wins this game comfortably.

Upset of the Week: Denver (+6.5, +240 moneyline) vs San Diego – Denver is 4-1 in its last five games. While Tim Tebow is getting a lot of publicity and credit for the success, the Broncos truly are winning with a somehow-improved defense. San Diego has lost five in a row. And frankly the Chargers just don’t look like a very good team. I think the Broncos win a close game that pretty much seals Norv Turner’s fate as a lame-duck coach.

Tony:

Green Bay (-6.5) at Detroit – I don’t want Green Bay to win, and if I have to bet on them every week from here on out to curse them, I probably will.  I also don’t think they’re nearly as good as the media wants to make them out to be—they seem to play down to opponents levels, but yet still seem to win by more than a touchdown each week.  Detroit may be the toughest test they have the rest of the year—and if Ndamukong Suh gets one of his “playing hard within the rules” hits on Aaron Rodgers it could alter the season for the Packers. In the meantime, if they’re going to keep winning, I should really try to make as much money as possible on them.

Tampa Bay (+3) at Tennessee – Not really sure why—but hopefully LaGarrette Blount, Mike Williams and Josh Freeman finally have it figured out.  It may be too late for my fantasy teams, but hopefully they can help my wallet (or pride, I guess) down the line.

Denver at San Diego: Under 42 – Denver’s defense has been winning them games.  San Diego’s offense has been losing them games. I wouldn’t bet on Tim Tebow to put up more than 14 points in any game the rest of the season, unless he sells his soul to the devil, which makes a big gap for the Chargers to make up. I hate taking the under in any game, but I’ll take a shot here.

Upset of the Week: Denver (+6, +230 money line) – In one line, I bet against Tim Tebow to score more than 14 points, and then I pick them for the upset?  I only have two upsets picked this week, and frankly at this point I’m going for the big kills, so I take the +260 on Denver over the +160 on Tampa Bay.  Plus, I think God would rather see Tebow win over a heathen like Philip Rivers*.

*I have no idea if Philip Rivers really is a heathen, but at this point, with Tebow 4-1 this season as a starter with his lack of tangible QB skills, don’t be surprised if a lot more players and coaches start thanking God at every opportunity possible.