I don’t know if it means I know something or if it was a case of the blind squirrel finding a nut, but I nailed the conference championships, picking the Colts to beat the Jets both straight up and against the spread while guessing the Vikings would beat the spread but lose a close one to New Orleans. That puts me at 7-3 straight up and 6-4 against Vegas lines for the playoffs. And so on to the Super Bowl.

Straight up: Colts
Spread: Saints +5

The Super Bowl presents another intriguing match-up between two high-powered offenses going against defenses that have been vulnerable at times this season.

Among the most interesting aspects of this tilt will be the quarterback duel between Peyton Manning and Drew Brees – a match-up that brings back memories of Staubach vs Bradshaw or Montana vs Elway. With Dwight Freeney injured and either out or playing at less than full strength and the Saints sporting a very good offensive line, I expect Brees to have plenty of time to throw. The same should be true of Manning, who is rarely sacked.

Saints coaches have been quoted talking about the need to get “remember me” hits on Manning – the problem with that is even when he does get hit, Manning is so good at minimizing the damage that it makes those “remember me” hits difficult to achieve.

To the extent that either team runs the ball, the Saints I think are slightly better. They’ve got the power in Mike Bell and Pierre Thomas to go with the finesse of Reggie Bush. Joseph Addai has had a decent season for Indy, but I don’t see the Super Bowl coming down to the ground game.

I expect to see an aerial show with lots of points (I’d take the over if I were in Vegas) and yards. A couple score lead in this game won’t mean much because both teams are equipped with the talent to score quickly and frequently.

It’s trite and cliché, but it’s so often true that games like this come down to avoiding turnovers and catching breaks. Both teams have done that particularly well this season (witness Colts v Patriots or Saints v Bucs, Redskins). In the end I think Manning, having been in the Super Bowl before, is going to keep the Colts one step ahead of Brees and the Saints. I think the Saints will keep the score close throughout, though I think the Colts will win the game.

Zoneblitz sought a couple other opinions on the Super Bowl as well. Here’re their thoughts:

Anthony Maggio, freelance fantasy sports writer and owner if the Punting Baxter blog

The Colts and Saints should provide a fun game to watch but an awful one to listen to with references to “Hurricane Katrina,” “Who Dat,” “Destiny,” and plenty of other references to New Orleans deserving this opportunity for the city in full force. I’m not disagreeing or agreeing with any of it, I’m just prepared to be annoyed.

As for the on-field fireworks, I expect a close contest with plenty of scoring. Indy’s got a decent defense, but it won’t provide much resistance to Drew Brees’ flying circus. The Colts allowed 12 touchdown passes from Week 10 through Week 15 before throwing in the towel the final two games, then faced two run-heavy offenses in the playoffs. It’s not that I expect Indy to be unprepared, but it could be a bit overwhelmed after going so long between games against opponents who can actually throw the ball.

Peyton Manning is too good to let the Saints run away with the game, but will find New Orleans to be a much tougher challenge than Brees must deal with. The Saints have allowed just one touchdown pass in two playoff games and have allowed multiple touchdown passes just once in their last nine games. I expect a pair of them from Manning and probably something out of Joseph Addai, but ultimately I don’t think it will be enough for Manning to win his second Super Bowl.

My prediction: Saints 31, Colts 27.

Tony Tellijohn, co-owner, Zoneblitz.com

Saints 38, Colts 35

Not sure why. Just a gut feeling.

And that’s the kind of analysis that keeps you coming back to Zoneblitz.com.

And the fun continues.

I was less successful in my picks last weekend than I was during the Wild Card round. I hit two of four straight up and one of four against the spread. Hopefully this week goes a bit better.

Straight-up: Indianapolis over New York Jets
Spread: Colts -8.5

I’ve thoroughly enjoyed watching the Jets this season, especially through the playoff run, and I think if Mark Sanchez continues to develop this team is set to be good for quite awhile. Thomas Jones continues to defy Father Time, seemingly getting stronger by the year, and Shonn Greene appears to be a worthy heir apparent. And that defense – damn. That defense is good.

But I think the run ends this weekend. The Colts have too many weapons on offense even for Darrelle Revis and company. Peyton Manning will find just enough open receivers to frustrate that defense. And while the Colts have been vulnerable to the run in past seasons they did a solid job holding off the Ravens’ rush attack last week. I don’t expect a hugely high scoring game but I think a 23-10-ish kind of game is probable.

With a year of experience under Rex Ryan, however, the Jets will come back in 2010 as one of my pre-season favorites.

Straight-up: New Orleans over Minnesota
Spread: Vikings +3.5

If I were in Vegas I’d have a hard time putting any money on this one. There are too many variables to take into account.

Reggie Bush and Jeremy Shockey have had a tendency to disappear for large chunks of time the last couple seasons. But last week they were on fire early, setting an emotional tone for New Orleans in their demolition of Arizona.

It goes to show just how many weapons Drew Brees has to work with. And in order to defend against Shockey, Bush, Colston, Henderson, Meachem, and company, they’re going to have to be able to rush the quarterback without blitzing – with a beaten up defensive line featuring three of four starters on the injury report.

Minnesota also has a plethora of options to choose from: Rice, Shiancoe, Harvin, et al. Many are projecting a shootout. I don’t necessarily disagree. But I think a really high-scoring affair benefits the Saints for a couple reasons: One, I think the Saints are just slightly more explosive on offense than the Vikings, who are slightly more methodical in their offensive approach. Two, the Superdome is loud and if Brett Favre has to throw the ball around a lot, noise-related communication problems with his receivers are hardly out of the question.

One thing that would help the Vikings dramatically is the ability to run the ball. The Saints have been vulnerable to players like DeAngelo Williams, Jonathan Stewart, Felix Jones, Marion Barber and Tim Hightower in recent weeks. If Adrian Peterson could grind out some yards and help take the crowd away as a factor it could only help.

Both of these teams come in confident following big divisional round wins. This should be really fun to watch. My hunch is that home field helps the Saints pull it out. But really it’s a toss up that will likely be decided by turnovers and breaks.

Some people call NFL Divisional Playoff Weekend the best of the football season. This season I think they are absolutely right on.

I love this weekend’s games. I’ve been studying them as time allowed all week and I’ve spent the last hour scouring the Internet and two newspapers looking for information. And I can’t get a good grasp on any of the four matchups.

I’m coming off of a pretty good week though. I hit three of four both straight up and against the spread last week. Hopefully that trend continues. Here are my thoughts:

Straight-up: Arizona over New Orleans
Spread: Arizona +7

Reason: Everything I’ve read indicates people think this game is going to be a shootout. I think they are correct. The smartest play this week might be taking the over-57.

While I doubt either team reaches 51 as Arizona did last week against Green Bay, both of these teams end up winning by outscoring opponents rather than holding them to low scores. So why am I going against two playoff seasons of picking against Arizona?

New Orleans set a franchise record for scoring this season and averaged more than 30 points per game. But their last four games netted 10, 17, 17 and 26. Despite starting 13-0, the last dominant performance the Saints put forth was November 30 against New England, a 38-17 win. Since then they’ve struggled to beat Washington and Atlanta and lost their last three (with one of those being to Carolina when they rested starters). The Saints have the feel of a team that peaked too early.

Arizona, on the other hand, is on fire. In the four games prior to the meaningless 33-7 loss to Green Bay in the finale – in a game that meant little to them by kickoff – the Cardinals reached 30 points three times. The Cardinals are 4-0 on turf this season and 6-2 on the road, matching the Saints’ record at home. And Kurt Warner, who discovered Steve Breaston, Jerheme Urban and Early Doucet last week with Anquan Boldin out, gets to go against two starting cornerbacks who spent chunks of the season injured and may not yet be full strength.

Furthermore, the Cardinals are 5-1 straight up and 6-0 against the spread this season when they are the underdog. I expect another high scoring game. And yes, I expect the Cardinals to come out on top.

Straight-up: Indianapolis over Baltimore
Spread: Baltimore +6.5

Reason: I love the way Baltimore played last week against New England. They came out of the gate, nailed an 83 yard touchdown and put up 24 in the first quarter against New England. Joe Flacco threw just 10 passes in the dominant performance. The run game is the way to beat Indianapolis and I think they will come close.

But Indianapolis has been masterful in close games all season. This is not a dominant Colts team in a lot of ways, but they have won eight games by eight points or fewer, including a 17-15 win at Baltimore in November.

I think Peyton Manning has just a few too many weapons in the passing game for a Baltimore team that has been vulnerable in the secondary at times this season, sometimes even against nondescript quarterbacks (Charlie Frye/JaMarcus Russell combined for 282 yards and a score in the finale. Manning had 299 yards in the November win).

This should be a great game. I expect a slightly higher-scoring output than the two teams produced in November. I am picking the Colts but if the controversial decision to rest starters the last three weeks of the season actually turned the Colts rusty it would not be the least bit surprising to see the Ravens pull this one out.

Straight-up: Dallas over Minnesota
Spread: Dallas +3

Reason: This is another matchup that fascinates me, not just because the Vikings are my hometown team.

Dallas comes into this game on fire. They ended the Saints’ undefeated season quest the week before Christmas, pitched two shutouts against division rivals Washington and Philadelphia, then crushed the Eagles again last week in the playoffs. The offense is hitting its stride, mixing doses of Tony Romo in the passing game with a three-headed running back attack featuring not Marion Barber but the explosive Felix Jones.

Minnesota played extremely well against New York in its finale. But before that the team struggled in losing three of four – and giving up 30, 26 and 36 in those defeats. The Vikings are undefeated at Metrodome this season. But Dallas had a winning record on the road and was 8-3 on artificial turf. Plus, they have the New Orleans win at Superdome on their resume – I doubt they come in scared of crowd noise or intimidation.

The Cowboys also feature the league’s second best scoring defense. Other than two losses to the New York Giants in which they gave up 31 and 33 points, Dallas has not allowed an opponent to score more than 21 all year. Their outside linebacker duo of DeMarcus Ware and Anthony Spencer will give fits to the Vikings’ tackles, rookie Phil Loadholt and inconsistent Bryant McKinnie.

The Vikings also play good defense, especially at home where they’ve given up just 46 points in their last five games. I think Antoine Winfield’s food injury is going to play a role in this game. If he is near full strength after the week off, that will help the Vikings neutralize Miles Austin and Tony Romo. If Winfield is off his game, however, it leaves the secondary vulnerable. Jason Witten could also have a big game for Dallas as the Vikings have had issues covering tight ends at times this season.

This will be another close one. I’d expect it to end up a touchdown difference or less and probably on the lower end of the 45.5 over/under. Right now I’m leaning 51% to 49% that it’s the Cowboys that end up the victor.

Straight-up: New York Jets over San Diego
Spread: Jets +7

Reason: This might be the most interesting of the weekend. The Chargers come into the game riding an 11 game winning streak. The Jets might not even have made the playoffs if Indianapolis hadn’t decided to remove their starters from their week 15 game.

But don’t take the Jets lightly. They’re running the ball fantastically with both Thomas Jones and Shonn Greene. And the league’s best scoring defense is peaking at the right time. They held their last six regular season opponents to 6, 13, 3, 10, 15 and 0 points and only allowed 14 to Cincinnati in the Wild Card game.

The Chargers have a potent passing game. But Vincent Jackson, who went for 1,167 yards and nine touchdowns during the regular season, will be facing Darrelle Revis, who has made many of the league’s best receivers invisible this season. For the Chargers to win others are going to have to step up in the passing game. They certainly have the weapons – Antonio Gates is still great. Malcom Floyd has proven he’s capable of producing big plays. And Darren Sproles has almost single-handedly won a game or two the last couple seasons.

The Bolts will also have to stop the run. In fact, if they can slow the run and force the game into the hands of rookie Mark Sanchez, the Chargers will win this game hands down. That’s going to be a tough challenge, however, especially considering the injuries San Diego has suffered along the defensive line this season.

Just like the other three games, there are arguments for why either team could pull this one off. In the end, I love the way Rex Ryan has his team playing right now. They are absolutely peaking in the playoffs, not unlike the way Arizona did last year. This will be a great opportunity for Norv Turner to prove he can be the big-game coach many suspect he can’t. Not that my opinion matters, but I’m not sure he can either.

So I’m going with the Jets.

We dropped the prediction segment on the ZB Web site early in the season this year due to lack of cohesiveness, direction and readership. We’ll probably bring something pick-related, both straight up and against the spread, for next season. It’ll definitely be more organized than it was before.

That said, it’s the playoffs and with the beginning of the second season I thought I’d go back to making some foolish game picks.

So, for Wild Card weekend, here are my thoughts.

Straight-up: Dallas over Philly
Spread: Dallas -4

Reason: I thought all season Philly was the better team but now I’m not so sure. Dallas in the last four games has given up 0, 0, 17, and 20 points. So while they aren’t scoring a ton, the defense is playing well enough for them to win.

Philly is scoring but their defense isn’t stopping anyone. If Dallas’ defense can hold tough – and two successive shutouts are impressive in the NFL, even if one was against Washington – I think they win, something like 20-16.

Straight-up: Green Bay over Arizona
Spread: Green Bay -1

Reason: Packers are scoring a ton and, other than the blip against Pittsburgh, the defense seems to be catching on as well. They’ve given up 14, 37 (PB game), 10 and 7 in the last four. While they have a weak secondary the Cardinals could be without Boldin. At a minimum he won’t be full strength. Breaston, Early Doucet and Jerheme Urban are solid guys but having to move them up to 2-4 rather than 3-5 hurts that offense.

I don’t think it’s as obvious as the national pundits are making it. The Cardinals will make it a game. But a 27-21 Packer win seems reasonably likely to me.

Straight-up: New York Jets over Cincinnati
Spread: Jets +2.5

Reason: Bengals are the coldest team heading into the playoffs. They’ve given up 27 or more points in three of the last four and won only one of four. The Jets dismantled the Bengals. They have the best scoring defense in the league for the season. And they have scored 26, 29 and 37 in three of the last four games. I expect a lower scoring game but most of the scoring will be done by the Jets.

Straight-up: Baltimore over New England
Spread: Baltimore +3.5

Reason: This game is about as evenly matched as they come based on how the teams are performing heading into the playoffs. The Pats before last week had given up 10, 10 and 7 points in their previous three games. And the last one didn’t matter much to them. The Ravens have won three of four and have given up 13 or fewer points in three of those games.

The Ravens lost to the Patriots 27-21 early in the season and were close to driving for the winning score when a receiver dropped a fourth down pass at the five yard line. The separator in this game, in my opinion, is the injury to Wes Welker. That’s 123 catches and nearly 1350 yards of offense they need to replace. Julian Edelman is a fine player. But he’s a rookie in his first playoff game. Welker and Brady have been together three seasons. Ravens avenge the early season loss.

Just a couple this week – lots of games I think I like, but few I like enough to publish. As always, the odds come from Vegas.com. Playing heavily on the favorites today.

1. Indianapolis (-14) over St. Louis
St. Louis is giving up 252 yards per game via the pass, sixth worst in the league. They’ve only given up eight touchdowns in the air, but likely at least in part because they’ve been behind to the point where opponents focused on milking the clock. Peyton Manning has thrown for 300-plus in every game. He could have that by halftime. The Rams are averaging nine points per game. They will not hold Indy to 23 or fewer.

2. New England (-14.5) over Tampa Bay
If the NFL wants to turn the Brits on to  American football they might want to schedule more competitive games. Tom Brady is starting to look like the Tom Brady of old. And while Tampa hasn’t been scorched through the air by yardage, they have given up 13 passing touchdowns on the season, third most in the league. Meanwhile, the Bucs’ offense isn’t as punchless as St. Louis’ is, but they still don’t have enough power to keep this within two scores.

Good luck.

One of these days I’ll tabulate the previous weeks. Right now the numbers aren’t in my favor. But I’ll take another stab anyway:

1. Washington vs Kansas City: Under 37
Washington’s defense isn’t that bad. Kansas City’s is, but Washington’s offense is equally as bad. 16-10? 20-13 maybe? Under 37 seems the best bet.

2. Cincinnati vs Houston: Over 46
Cincinnati’s defense has been surprisingly good this season, but Houston will get some points. Cedric Benson has been a surprise and Houston’s run defense is terrible. Points will be scored in this game.

3. Green Bay (-14) over Detroit
Calvin Johnson is missing the game. I don’t think they score much. Green Bay should finally be able to exploit a defense downfield with Rodgers to Driver and Jennings.

4. Philadelphia (-14) over Oakland
Until the Raiders actually show up for a game looking like they care it’s pretty safe to bet against them.

Good luck.

It’s a week for betting on the favorites. Here goes:

1. Minnesota (-10.5) over St. Louis
Jared Allen had 4.5 sacks against Green Bay last week. The Rams have an offensive line that is nearly as bad as Green Bay’s, a quarterback that has less game than Aaron Rodgers, no wide receivers and a poor defense. Can’t believe this line isn’t higher.

2. Dallas (-7.5) over Kansas City
Dallas has underachieved so far but Kansas City is 29th against the pass and 24th against the run. Their pass defense is suspect but the Chiefs have one legit wide receiver and not much else on offense. This line started out bigger and has come down. It’s at a point now where the Cowboys should be a really good play.

3. Pittsburgh (-10.5) over Detroit
Steelers looked motivated last week against San Diego, especially Rashard Mendenhall. If Mendenhall carries that attitude over to this week the Steelers should win this game comfortably. Detroit might be getting a little better. But this is still a bad team.

4. Houston (+5.5) over Arizona
Okay, here’s my upset of the week. Not that I’m sure the Texans are going to win but their offense is definitely capable of matching Arizona score for score. Both teams will put on aerial shows. Houston is terrible against the run so it could be the beginning of the Beanie Wells era as well. But I don’t expect either one of these teams to blow the other out.

5. Houston vs Arizona: Over 50
Wouldn’t surprise me if this game got into the 60s. This will be an aerial show and a close game – I could see 34-31 with a last second field goal providing the margin of victory.

Good luck everyone.

Here are the picks this week:

Again, spreads from vegas.com.

1. Baltimore (+1.5) over New England
Smart gamblers will have grabbed this one earlier in the week when New England was giving as many as three points. It’s at New England and the Pats remain one of the best coached teams in the league. But I simply feel Baltimore has overtaken them in talent. The Pats’ defense is still finding itself and while Brady started to look like his old self the last half of last week’s game, I like the Ravens to win straight up based on defense and the improved play of quarterback Joe Flacco.

2. New York Giants (-8.5) over Kansas City
Low hanging fruit here. I can’t believe the spread isn’t into the double digits. The Giants can run and pass and the Chiefs can’t stop either. Comfortable win for the G-Men.

3. Indianapolis (-10) over Seattle
Pretty much the same story as the Giants/Chiefs games. The Colts would have to stumble heavily at home to not comfortably take this gameat Lucas Oil Field. Seattle’s just not that great right now.

Good luck everyone. There are some great games today – that Jets/Saints game? Should be a good one. Wouldn’t necessarily put money on it (unless you just like putting money down on a good money-line bet, if so the Jets would be a solid play) but it should be a lot of fun.

Okay, yeah, I dropped the ball in week two. Instead of pretending to bet on the NFL I went out of town for the weekend.

So I stand at 2-2 after splitting my week one bets. The Vegas guys usually do an amazing job of setting the pointspreads. So I’ll probably regret writing this by about 8 p.m. But I think there is some money to be made today. Here are my thoughts on week three. Lines from www.vegas.com.

1. Indianapolis (+3) over Arizona
Okay, Arizona gave up the most passing touchdowns in the league last year. They’re on pace to do so again this year. They’re playing against Peyton Manning, Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne. And, while the Colts run defense is terrible, they defend the pass pretty well. And you get points? Yes, the Colts could well be somewhat worn down from the hot Miami game. But I think Manning will toss the ball all over the field tonight. I have been unimpressed with the Cardinals so far and I think the Colts win this one straight up.

2. Pittsburgh at Cincinnati: Under 37
Cincinnati’s defense appears to be a little better than expected. But this pick mostly stems from the fact that I dont’ expect the Bengals to get much of anything off of an angry Steelers team coming off a loss in a game that shouldn’t have been close. If the Bengals can keep the Steelers in the 20s I don’t think there is any way this game goes over the number.

3. Pittsburgh (-3.5) over Cincinnati
Well, I guess if I say Cincy isn’t going to get much off of Pittsburgh it should leave open the strong possibility that the Steelers can cover the 3.5 spread.I don’t expect this to be an utter blowout. But I do think the Steelers win comfortably, perhaps in the 17-3 or 20-6 range. I’ve been less impressed by Pittsburgh than I expected to be so far, but despite an impressive showing last week I need to see more from Cincinnati before I can call myself a believer.

4. Carolina at Dallas: Over 47.5
If you got to Vegas earlier in the week you could have gotten this game at closer to 45 or 45.5. I don’t think it matters. Dallas’ offense should get the number into the 30s, with or without Marion Barber III. The only thing that worries me about this number is that both teams’ running games are so strong the clock might never stop running. But I expect both offenses to pile up big plays in the run game and a final score looking something like 34-20.

5. Green Bay (-6.5) over St. Louis
Yep, I’m going deep this week. I believe Green Bay is better than they’ve played so far, even with a struggling and battered offensive line. I believe that Steve Spagnuolo is a good coach who will eventually make some progress in St. Louis. But I also believe he is coaching a team dramatically lacking in talent. After a catchless game at home against Cincy, Greg Jennings will explode on the turf in St. Louis for a huge game. And the Packers will remind everybody why they were one of the division favorites when the season started.

I’ll do a better job of getting these out earlier next week. But here are my top three picks for the week:

1) Minnesota (-4.5) at Cleveland
I just don’t think the Browns have the offense to break the Vikings’ defense and the Vikings offense is too multi-faceted to not win by more than a touchdown.

2) Baltimore (-13) vs Kansas City
Matt Cassel is out. Baltimore has a great defense, a solid quarterback entering his second year and three running backs that can alternate taking chunks out of the Chiefs’ defense. This will be over by halftime.

3) Kansas City at Baltimore: Over 36.5
See above. I think it’s possible Baltimore goes over that number by itself.

Good luck everyone. Welcome to the new season.