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One of these days I’ll tabulate the previous weeks. Right now the numbers aren’t in my favor. But I’ll take another stab anyway:

1. Washington vs Kansas City: Under 37
Washington’s defense isn’t that bad. Kansas City’s is, but Washington’s offense is equally as bad. 16-10? 20-13 maybe? Under 37 seems the best bet.

2. Cincinnati vs Houston: Over 46
Cincinnati’s defense has been surprisingly good this season, but Houston will get some points. Cedric Benson has been a surprise and Houston’s run defense is terrible. Points will be scored in this game.

3. Green Bay (-14) over Detroit
Calvin Johnson is missing the game. I don’t think they score much. Green Bay should finally be able to exploit a defense downfield with Rodgers to Driver and Jennings.

4. Philadelphia (-14) over Oakland
Until the Raiders actually show up for a game looking like they care it’s pretty safe to bet against them.

Good luck.

It’s a week for betting on the favorites. Here goes:

1. Minnesota (-10.5) over St. Louis
Jared Allen had 4.5 sacks against Green Bay last week. The Rams have an offensive line that is nearly as bad as Green Bay’s, a quarterback that has less game than Aaron Rodgers, no wide receivers and a poor defense. Can’t believe this line isn’t higher.

2. Dallas (-7.5) over Kansas City
Dallas has underachieved so far but Kansas City is 29th against the pass and 24th against the run. Their pass defense is suspect but the Chiefs have one legit wide receiver and not much else on offense. This line started out bigger and has come down. It’s at a point now where the Cowboys should be a really good play.

3. Pittsburgh (-10.5) over Detroit
Steelers looked motivated last week against San Diego, especially Rashard Mendenhall. If Mendenhall carries that attitude over to this week the Steelers should win this game comfortably. Detroit might be getting a little better. But this is still a bad team.

4. Houston (+5.5) over Arizona
Okay, here’s my upset of the week. Not that I’m sure the Texans are going to win but their offense is definitely capable of matching Arizona score for score. Both teams will put on aerial shows. Houston is terrible against the run so it could be the beginning of the Beanie Wells era as well. But I don’t expect either one of these teams to blow the other out.

5. Houston vs Arizona: Over 50
Wouldn’t surprise me if this game got into the 60s. This will be an aerial show and a close game – I could see 34-31 with a last second field goal providing the margin of victory.

Good luck everyone.

Here are the picks this week:

Again, spreads from vegas.com.

1. Baltimore (+1.5) over New England
Smart gamblers will have grabbed this one earlier in the week when New England was giving as many as three points. It’s at New England and the Pats remain one of the best coached teams in the league. But I simply feel Baltimore has overtaken them in talent. The Pats’ defense is still finding itself and while Brady started to look like his old self the last half of last week’s game, I like the Ravens to win straight up based on defense and the improved play of quarterback Joe Flacco.

2. New York Giants (-8.5) over Kansas City
Low hanging fruit here. I can’t believe the spread isn’t into the double digits. The Giants can run and pass and the Chiefs can’t stop either. Comfortable win for the G-Men.

3. Indianapolis (-10) over Seattle
Pretty much the same story as the Giants/Chiefs games. The Colts would have to stumble heavily at home to not comfortably take this gameat Lucas Oil Field. Seattle’s just not that great right now.

Good luck everyone. There are some great games today – that Jets/Saints game? Should be a good one. Wouldn’t necessarily put money on it (unless you just like putting money down on a good money-line bet, if so the Jets would be a solid play) but it should be a lot of fun.

Okay, yeah, I dropped the ball in week two. Instead of pretending to bet on the NFL I went out of town for the weekend.

So I stand at 2-2 after splitting my week one bets. The Vegas guys usually do an amazing job of setting the pointspreads. So I’ll probably regret writing this by about 8 p.m. But I think there is some money to be made today. Here are my thoughts on week three. Lines from www.vegas.com.

1. Indianapolis (+3) over Arizona
Okay, Arizona gave up the most passing touchdowns in the league last year. They’re on pace to do so again this year. They’re playing against Peyton Manning, Dallas Clark and Reggie Wayne. And, while the Colts run defense is terrible, they defend the pass pretty well. And you get points? Yes, the Colts could well be somewhat worn down from the hot Miami game. But I think Manning will toss the ball all over the field tonight. I have been unimpressed with the Cardinals so far and I think the Colts win this one straight up.

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I’ll do a better job of getting these out earlier next week. But here are my top three picks for the week:

1) Minnesota (-4.5) at Cleveland
I just don’t think the Browns have the offense to break the Vikings’ defense and the Vikings offense is too multi-faceted to not win by more than a touchdown.

2) Baltimore (-13) vs Kansas City
Matt Cassel is out. Baltimore has a great defense, a solid quarterback entering his second year and three running backs that can alternate taking chunks out of the Chiefs’ defense. This will be over by halftime.

3) Kansas City at Baltimore: Over 36.5
See above. I think it’s possible Baltimore goes over that number by itself.

Good luck everyone. Welcome to the new season.