My first thought was good luck getting Luck. There are more than a half-dozen teams worse off than Indy is this year. Despite getting manhandled by Houston in the opener, the Peyton Manning-less Colts still have Reggie Wayne, Dallas Clark, Austin Collie, Pierre Garcon, Joseph Addai and enough other weapons to complement an aging-but-still-solid Kerry Collins that there is no way Indianapolis will fall off the map enough to be in position to draft Stanford’s signal caller.

My second thought was what took so long?I know Manning just signed a $90 million contract that tied him to the Colts for another five years. But he also turned 35 this year and, while he has been incredibly durable during his career, Manning has not been devoid of health issues even before this year’s neck issue arose.

This is the second year in a row Manning has had surgery to deal with neck issues, the first coming in the summer of 2010 to relieve a pinched nerve issue that had plagued him for years. So I would argue after the first set of neck issues came up, the team should have been far better prepared for dealing with potential health problems at the quarterback position than they were when they had to panic and grab Kerry Collins out of retirement to try and salvage this season.

Sports Illustrated ran a web story recently looking at the collection of quarterbacks that have ridden the pine behind Manning over the years. They range from the decent-but-over-the-hill types like Mark Rypien, who worked with Peyton during the future Hall of Famer’s developmental years to the we-probably-will-never-know-just-how-bad-they-were guys like Jim Sorgi and Cory Sauter, who collected paychecks and future pensions for holding clipboards and taking the occasional snap in practice while Manning jogged to the water station.

This year’s training camp mess was being headed up by Curtis Painter and Dan Orlovsky before Collins arrived.

I would argue the lack of depth at quarterback was short-sighted but understandable in Manning’s early days. Given his consecutive start streak you don’t need to invest a ton in backing up a guy who is virtually irreplaceable if he does go down anyway.

I would argue, however, that Polian’s scouting efforts on the top college-level quarterbacks now is coming at least a couple years too late. Look at how valuable Matt Cassel was to New England in 2008 when Tom Brady tore up his knee in the season opener. He was no superstar, but he threw for 3,693 yards and 21 touchdowns and he kept the Patriots relevant when nobody figured they could overcome the loss of their own future Hall of Famer.

The Cassel argument also brings me to another point where I think the Colts have lost an opportunity over the years. I’m a believer that teams should take at least one quarterback at some point in the NFL draft almost every year, if not every year.

That’s not to say they have to do it early. Obviously the Colts have been Super Bowl competitors for the bulk of the last decade and it is understandable that they would spend their top picks on filling needs at other positions.

But drafting and developing good, solid backup quarterbacks is a way to continually replenish your team via trades for draft picks and/or players. Let’s look back at that 2008 Patriots season. Cassel was a seventh round pick in 2005 after riding the pine at Southern California his entire college career. Prior to 2008 he got garbage time action in 14 games for the Patriots over three seasons. But when he was called on due to injury, he answered the bell and put up solid numbers. Then, when Brady recovered, New England was then able to trade him to Kansas City for a second round pick in 2009.

The beauty of this draft-them-late-and-see-what-happens strategy is there are multiple ways it can work out. The Brady injury allowed New England to showcase and trade Cassel. But the Patriots utilized this draft-and-trade equation the other way in 2002 when they realized what they had in Brady – whom they had taken out of Michigan with a sixth round pick in 2000.

When Drew Bledsoe was injured in 2001, they installed Brady as the starter. He played so well the Patriots decided to keep him and instead traded the aging Bledsoe to Buffalo for a first round pick — all because they took a late-round flyer on a guy who was only a part-time starter for the Wolverines in college.

Bill Belichick has done a masterful job in recent years of stockpiling draft picks and using them to keep reshuffling the decks in New England, adding a third round quarterback this year in Ryan Mallett that many draft experts say is the most NFL ready signal caller of this year’s rookie crop.

But Belichick is not alone. Countless teams have used the backup quarterback position to fortify their stock of draft picks in recent years. Atlanta turned the third round pick it used in 2004 to select Matt Schaub into two second round picks and a swap of first round selections when trading Michael Vick’s then-backup to Houston.

Philadelphia got a second round pick and Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie in return for the second round pick it spent on Kevin Kolb in 2007.

The Green Bay Packers were particularly good at this during the middle years of the Brett Favre era. They turned a sixth rounder in 1998 into Matt Hasselbeck, used him for four seasons, and then traded him to Seattle along with a seventh round pick for a third rounder and the right to move up seven spots in the first round in 2001.

Six years earlier the Packers had done the same thing with Mark Brunell, shipping him to Jacksonville for third and fifth round picks after drafting him in the fifth round in 1993. The defending Super Bowl champs are sitting on another guy right now in Matt Flynn – a seventh round pick in 2008 – who could be seen as a trading block chip in the near future.
Really good quarterbacks are a scarce commodity. They don’t have to be drafted early, but you can never have too many of them. But the Colts, year after year, have failed at developing anyone of note behind Manning.

That has left them devoid of that extra potential trading chip that could have helped land other players at positions where the team has needed improvement (perhaps a run stopping defensive tackle?). It also has put the Colts in the position they are in this year, with their $90 million franchise quarterback on the shelf and the team seemingly suddenly realizing it needs to start looking to find Manning’s future replacement.

Bill Polian’s tenure with the Colts has been far more successful than not and he did bring the team a Super Bowl championship, but this one shortcoming can arguably be blamed for keeping the team from being even more successful during the 13 previous seasons Manning has been on the roster.

And it sure put the team in a bind this season.

As a 37-year-old athlete who is not currently under contract, the injury obviously puts the controversial wide receiver’s future in doubt.

So, two questions: Is he done? And is he a Hall of Famer?

I don’t care for Owens. He’s definitely got some diva to him as an individual, prancing for the cameras and throwing quarterback Donovan McNabb under the bus as his two years in Philadelphia wound down.

But you can’t help but respect him as a player. No matter what his often strange life has looked like off the field, he is a workout warrior who always answers the bell on Sundays. His nine catch, 122-yard performance in Super Bowl XXXIX on a barely healed broken leg was as memorable as it gets, despite the loss.

The game winning touchdown catch he made for San Francisco against Green Bay in the 1998-99 playoffs also left a mark while leaving Owens in tears. That’s the dilemma with Owens. His on-field exploits are as fantastic as his off-field antics are strange.

But the NFL Hall of Fame is about his contributions to the game on the field and those are beyond reproach. His 1078 catches for 15,934 yards and 153 touchdowns put him among the top receivers of all time in each category. Pro Football Reference has him at six Pro Bowls and five First Team All-Pro honors.

So to the second question I asked, I say yes, he is a Hall of Famer. But to the first, I’m not as sure as some others that the final chapter has been written. As weird as he is, he’s very dedicated to his craft. His advancing age works against him, as do the antics that have turned people off over the years. But he had 72 receptions, 983 yards and nine touchdowns last year before missing the final two games due to a knee injury, so he clearly still has some game.

But my guess is the injury provides him the additional motivation to rehab and come back, whether it’s this season or in 2012, if only to silence his critics just one more time. Yes, Owens will one day be in the Hall. But I would not expect to see him on the ballot in 2015.

Your thoughts?

Marshall Faulk, Jerome Bettis and Curtis Martin all survived the winnowing if the list. So did multi-time finalist wide receivers Tim Brown, Cris Carter and Andre Reed, as well as tight end Shannon Sharpe.

First ballot tackle Willie Roaf and multi-time finalist center Dermontti Dawson represent offensive linemen on the list while defenders still under consideration include linemen Richard Dent, Chris Doleman, Charles Haley and Cortez Kennedy. Defensive back Deion Sanders, another first ballot candidate, rounds out the players.

Ed Sabol, founder of NFL Films, is also a finalist as a contributor.

That means coach Don Coryell, running backs Roger Craig and Terrell Davis, linebacker Kevin Greene, defensive backs Lester Hayes and Aeneas Williams, punter Ray Guy, owners Art Modell and Edward DeBartolo Jr., former Commissioner Paul Tagliabue and contributor George Young did not make the cut this year.

The 15 finalists who did make the cut join senior candidates Les Richter and Chris Hanburger, who were announced in August, as candidates for induction in the 2011 Hall of Fame class.

The class of 2011 will be determined on Saturday, February 5 the day before Super Bowl XLV and will be announced that evening at 6 p.m. Central Time during a special on the NFL Network. The enshrinement ceremony will be held Saturday, August 6 in Canton, Ohio.

According to the Hall of Fame’s selection criteria, no more than five modern-era candidates can be selected in any given year and a class of six or seven enshrinees can only be achieved if one or both of the senior candidates are elected.

Last year’s senior candidates, Floyd Little and Dick LeBeau, both were elected as part of the 2010 class, which included wide receiver Jerry Rice, running back Emmitt Smith, defensive lineman John Randle, linebacker Rickey Jackson and offensive lineman Russ Grimm. Headlined by Rice and Smith, it was hailed by some as the strongest ever.

Fan packages are on sale now at the Pro Football Hall of Fame website.

So … does anyone who made it or who didn’t surprise or particularly disappoint you? My hunch is that Faulk and Sanders are near locks as first-timers. I prioritize Cris Carter over the other receivers and I’m leaning Dawson over Roaf as an offensive lineman. I suspect one defensive lineman will get in as well. I lean Kennedy, though Haley would not surprise me either. I also suspect both senior candidates will get in.

My list would leave Sabol out. This would lend some credence to Sports Illustrated Reporter Peter King’s recent assessment that it’s too difficult for contributors to earn enshrinement. I think Sabol was a genius and ahead of his time so I wouldn’t be disappointed if he replaced whichever defensive lineman gets enshrined.

Nonetheless, this appears to be another strong and deserving class, as many of the folks who didn’t make the list of finalists can write a pretty good case for themselves as far as deserving a bronze bust in Canton.

We are looking forward to hearing your thoughts.

Nope.

Brett Favre’s arrival in Minneapolis inspired the media firestorm Tuesday afternoon that included news helicopters, wall-to-wall radio and television broadcasts and endless chatter on the Internet.

Really?

Didn’t most of us know this was likely to happen sooner or later? After he supposedly tweeted his retirement to teammates a couple weeks ago he then untweeted the retirement a couple days later, more or less saying he would play if his ankle was okay.

So, yeah Favre is back. One facebook friend posted the following status: “What — no posts about Favre? Are you people working or something?”

More likely the vast majority of the population (not including local news networks, ESPN or local sports talk radio outlets) has seen the Favre circus enough times where they knew it was just a matter of time before he flew to town on the Wilf family’s private yet. This time he came accompanied by three teammates, sent to encourage him to join the team in suburban Minneapolis …

Or were they? He hasn’t yet said he’s playing. Perhaps those potential teammates forced him onto the plane against his will. Perhaps he’s flying into town to, yet again, announce his retirement.

More likely, Favre is back for the season. Hereth likely ends this part of the soap opera for another preseason. One Green Bay Packers blogger has summed it up best, so far: “The Fake Suspense is Over: Brett Favre Returns.”

Let the season begin.

The Jets came back to win 29-15, and Caldwell and the Colts have been taking heat ever since, including a Yahoo! Sports reporter ridiculously calling it a bigger mistake than Marty Mornhinweg taking the wind rather than the ball to start overtime.

But none of the criticism appears to be more ridiculous than that of SerVaas, who has said he will petition the council to ask for refunds for all fans upset about the loss (he hasn’t found anyone on the council to sponsor his proposal).

“They came to see a game played honestly. It was not played honestly, ” he said.

Umm, you may not like it–some fans may not like it–even some sports reporters may not like it–but it most certainly was played honestly.  While Curtis Painter is definitely not Peyton Manning–hell, I didn’t even realize he was the Colts’ backup–he is an NFL player, with an NFL contract, that goes to NFL practices every day, meaning he was out there playing honestly, doing his best to win the game (even if his best isn’t very good).

Would you ask for a refund if Manning got hurt, forcing Painter into a game?

Should Vikings fans get a refund for games earlier in the season when Tarvaris Jackson replaced Brett Favre in several lopsided wins earlier this season?  Surely some fans would have liked to see the scores run up even more.

Do baseball fans get refunds when they find out that Joe Mauer or Alex Rodriguez or Albert Pujols aren’t playing?

Do basketball fans get a refund when LeBron James comes off the court for a breather?  Maybe Pittsburgh Penguin fans should get a pro-rated refund for every minute that Sid Crosby isn’t on the ice?

Peter King even addressed it in his weekly column:

Tweet of the Week

“How would we look at a team that threw away a game to get a higher draft pick? How is that dif than the Colts game today?”
– alvaradoangel, Angel Alvarado, late in the Colts’ 29-15 loss to the Jets, ruining Indy’s chance for a perfect season.

Good question, Angel. Very good question.

No, it isn’t a very good question–there’s a big difference between tanking entire portions of a season to get a better draft pick (common in the NBA, very rare in the NFL in my opinion) and resting (and protecting from injury) several star players for the last third of a game as you prepare for a run at the Super Bowl–the much bigger objective for the Colts season.

Does it suck for the fans not to get to see Peyton Manning for the whole game?

Sure.

Would those fans trade missing him for the last part of a game and losing to the Jets for a Super Bowl victory?

I’m guessing most would–even if there’s no guarantee that resting him means winning the Super Bowl, nor that he would have gotten hurt playing the last quarter of the game (just like there’s no guarantee that they would have beaten the Jets if he had stayed in).

Just a thought, but maybe SerVaas should stick to politics–heck, unless I’ve missed an update, the city has even bigger fish to fry even with the Colts–maybe SerVaas can come up with a way for the Capital Improvement Board to actually afford to run Lucas Oil Stadium for the Colts’ 2010 season.

At first glance, the move would appear to make sense for the Jets–they’ve lacked a big name wide receiver this season, who can stretch the field and take some pressure off of the running game.  Led by a defense that is ranked 3rd in points allowed and 4th in yardage allowed in the NFL and the effective (if not spectacular, for a rookie) play of QB Mark Sanchez, the team started 3-0.

But the Jets passing game is also ranked 27th in the NFL after four games, and Sanchez looked more like a rookie QB last week against the Saints, a team that, while improved defensively, has not had a reputation for having a stout defense in recent years.  And while the running game is currently ranked 9th in the NFL by yardage, that can’t be expected to continue if the team can’t effectively move the ball through the air, as teams will start to put 8-9 guys in the box regularly to stop Thomas Jones and Leon Washington.

Edwards brings to the Jets a rare combination of size and speed, and the pedigree of being a #3 overall pick, in the  2005 draft.  But to be honest, that’s about all the positivity that he brings to the table for the Jets.

He also brings a reputation for dropping passes (tied with Brandon Marshall for the most in the NFL over the last 2+ seasons), and a reputation for being a bit of a head case.  Just in the last week, he failed to catch a pass in the Browns overtime loss to the Cincinnati Bengals, and was the accused of punching a friend of NBA star LeBron James, who claims that Edwards has always been jealous of him.

In his career, he has also accused Cleveland fans of not appreciating him because of his Michigan roots, gotten into a sideline altercation with quarterback Charlie Frye, and was late to at least one team meeting due to attending the famed Michigan-Ohio State game, after being advised by team veterans not to.  He was also fined $150 and given 30 hours of community service last November after being found guilty of driving 120 MPH, and was partying in Miami with fellow Browns WR Donte Stallworth the night that Stallworth struck and killed a man while driving drunk (although Edwards was not with Stallworth at the time).

Playing in Cleveland, Edwards is used to playing in front of fans that are rabid, and will be on his case for dropping passes–although, I don’t ever remember the Dawg Pound cheering as one of their own players crawled off the field injured before.

Added to the fans will be the increased media scrutiny–even as the red-headed step-child to the Giants in New York, it’s likely that Edwards never faced the type of media criticism in the media hot beds of Cleveland and Ann Arbor that he will face in New York.

Edwards is also in a contract season–the time of a career when many players step up their games.  So far this season, Edwards has failed to do so–will that continue in New York, or will he finally regain his 2007 season form?  And will the Jets make an effort to resign him before the end of the season, or will they risk letting the player they just traded for walk away?

Finally, one must also take into consideration that Edwards will be going to a new team–while the offense may be similar to the one run in Cleveland (as much of Cleveland’s staff was in New York last year), he hasn’t really proven that he’s great in that offense yet–and he’ll be trying to establish a rhythm with a new quarterback–just ask Roy Williams, who had an even better track record than Edwards in the NFL, and struggled mightily when he was traded to the Cowboys last season.

In the end, the Jets clearly felt they had to make a move to compete over the full season in the AFC–with New England in their division, Baltimore and Indianapolis playing at extremely high levels, Pittsburgh and San Diego still talented but struggling a bit, and Denver…well, playing so far above what anyone expected it’s ridiculous, even making the playoffs could be a struggle.

The question now is whether this move is one that will actually help the Jets, or whether it will actually set them back even further.

In fact, only two major pro sports teams have ever been formed in Los Angeles–the Angels, who moved to Anaheim (before Los Angeles “stole” them back, without even needing them to move), and of course the Los Angeles Kings–because when you think Southern California, you think hockey.

So, despite not really showing that they could support one (or two) NFL franchises in the 1990′s, ever since the Rams and Raiders packed up and left, there has been speculation about who Los Angeles would steal to put a team back in the #2 television market in the United States.

Frequently mentioned have been the New Orleans Saints, who recently re-upped their lease at the Superdome, and the Minnesota Vikings, who are looking for a new stadium, but have an iron clad lease at the Metrodome through 2011.  The Buffalo Bills, San Diego Chargers, Rams, Raiders, San Francisco 49ers, and Jacksonville Jaguars have also been mentioned.

But now, the Jaguars may quickly move to the top of that list–and a possible move may happen even sooner than anticipated, with the annoucement that all 10 of the Jaguars home games in 2009 will be blacked out.

Given that there is typically a 72-hour deadline before each game that determines whether or not the game is blacked out, I’m not sure how they can announce all 10 games are blacked out this far in advance–but apparently ticket sales are that dreadful.

And that’s with over 9,700 seats covered with tarps to reduce the overall capacity of the stadium–a move that was made back when the team was actually pretty good.  Now that they’re struggling, maybe they need to buy some bigger tarps?

Assuming Favre’s bicep is sound, does he provide an upgrade at quarterback for the purple? Most likely yes.

But is this the Brett Favre of a few years ago who could seemingly at will pull rabbits from his helmet to produce victories for the Green and Gold? Not even close.

Let’s look at the game logs from the 2008 season. Everyone talks about the five game stretch that closed Favre’s campaign. It was a gross display of football, which reportedly coincided with the injured arm everyone is banking on being fixed.

Starting with the November 30 game against Denver, his last five games produced two touchdowns and nine interceptions, barely 1,000 yards passing, and four losses in five games.

So lets give him the benefit of the doubt on that final third of the season – it’s not like the rest of his season was stellar.

In fact, after a solid-to-sterling first four games, he spent the second quarter of the season playing almost as poorly as he did in the last five – before any reports surfaced of arm issues.

From October 12 through November 2, he again tossed eight picks against three touchdowns. That stretch produced home wins against dreg-like Cincinnati and Kansas City and a putrid road loss to Oakland.

Furthermore, if you take out a fantastic, blast-from-the-past six touchdown performance against Arizona, where he produced more than a quarter of his season’s 22 touchdowns, he averaged barely a TD pass per game for the entire year.

To summarize, one out-of-this-world game. Nine putrid games, five of which he gets a semi-pass for because of the arm issue. And six that ranged somewhere from decent to good.

Now again, this isn’t to say Favre isn’t an upgrade from the Booty/Rosenfels/Jackson trio. But it does indicate to me that Vikings fans need to temper their expectations for Favre.

Will he help open up the run for Adrian Peterson and Chester Taylor like he did for Thomas Jones’ career year in New York last season? Undoubtedly.

Does he bring veteran leadership and proven late-game heroics? Yes.

Does this guy have enough left in the tank to be enough of his former self to make the big difference hoped for by Vikings fans? Questionable.

Is it a guarantee that his presence is all the Vikings need to make it to the promised land that is Miami in February?

I highly, highly doubt it.

And if he’s as bad in nine games for the Vikings last year as he was in nine games for the Jets, who laughs last? Favre and the Vikings fans who are looking to stick it to their neighbors from the east?

Or Green Bay Packers fans, whom long ago thanked Favre for the two Super Bowl appearances and one Lombardi trophy that came on Number Four’s watch, then moved on to the Aaron Rodgers Era.

My money is on the latter.

There aren’t any who were known for their time as an assistant. But one could make a pretty strong argument that Philadelphia Eagles Defensive Coordinator Jim Johnson should be the first.

Johnson, who took a leave of absence from the team in May to fight a cancerous tumor on his spine, died, the team announced Tuesday. The 68-year-old coach designed an attacking defense that helped lead the Eagles to five NFC Championship games and a Super Bowl. They were generally among the league’s top defenses and he was considered among the top defensive minds in the league’s history.

According to ESPN, his 10-year tenure produced 26 Pro Bowl players and 390 sacks, good for second in the league during that time period. He was a master architect of blitzes and was revolutionary in his ability to keep offenses off balance. He never became a head coach in the NFL, but his proteges, John Harbaugh and Steve Spagnuolo, have head jobs right now.

The accolades for Johnson are pouring in from around the league at NFL.com and other locations.

“For 10 years, Jim Johnson was an exceptional coach for the Philadelphia Eagles, but more importantly he was an outstanding human being,” Eagles Owner Jeffrey Lurie told ESPN.”As an integral part of the Eagles family, Jim epitomized the traits of what a great coach should be – a teacher, a leader and a winner. … It was easy to feel close to him.”

“When people talk about the Andy Reid regime here, that wouldn’t have been possible without Jim,” Coach Reid said, according to CBSSportsline.com. “I think we all understand that. He really represented everything this city is about – toughness and grit. And that’s the way he fought this cancer.”

Safety Brian Dawkins played 10 years under Johnson with the Eagles. “He was a tough coach who wasn’t afraid to let you know how he was feeling,” Dawkins said in a statement quoted by CBSSportsline.com. “At the same time, he cared about us deeply.”

Baltimore Coach John Harbaugh: “I loved Jim Johnson. This is a sad day for so many people who were touched by this great man. … Jim was a tremendous teacher of football and life. He had a special ability to bring out the best in people while getting you to see the best in yourself. He saw potential and developed it. … For me, he was a father-type mentor and above all, a cherished friend. He belongs in the Hall of Fame. I will miss him so much.”

There are a number of coaches – head and assistant – who can make a case for the Hall. Don Coryell. Dick LeBeau. Perhaps Dick Rauch of the Pottsville Maroons. But Jim Johnson made a strong case for himself as well.

Fans of the Philadelphia Eagles should feel lucky to have had him for a decade.

That’s quite a change from speculation over the last few months where most “experts” in the media seemed to think Vick would be subjected to some league-imposed suspension beyond his incarceration for issues surrounding his dog fighting.

Should he receive this conditional reinstatement, any further penalty would likely be imposed by Sept. 1, according to the ESPN story, which was attributed to “sources” and included several on-the-record no comments from Vick’s agent and league officials.

So, if Vick is going to get the okay to play in 2009 the question shifts to which team will give him a shot? He’s never been a good passer but he is a game-changing athlete with running skills. Or he was, anyway. What he’s got left now is complete speculation at this point. Assuming he’s retained most of the athletic abilities, where does he become a good fit?

The minimum salary for someone of his playing tenure appears to be $620,000, so salary cap issues are mitigated to some extent as long as Vick is willing to take that kind of cash. And it’s not like he’s got a lot of leverage.

So, team-by-team, here’s the Zoneblitz.com take:

AFC East
Buffalo – Trent Edwards hasn’t been great and wouldn’t it be interesting for one of the league’s smallest markets to have two of the league’s most interesting problem children in Vick and Terrell Owens. Actually, while it hasn’t ever been accurate, Vick does have a cannon for an arm. Tossing the pig to guys like Owens and Lee Evans could be interesting.

Miami – With Chad Pennington and Chad Henne, I think the Dolphins have their quarterbacks of the present and the future.

New England – Tom Brady’s coming back from injury and Matt Cassel has gone on to a new opportunity in Kansas City. Bill Belichick could conceivably take Vick on as a backup.

New York Jets – Mark Sanchez. Enough said.

AFC North
Baltimore – Joe Flacco has great upside and Troy Smith is an athletic backup. No need here.

Cincinnati – Carson Palmer is reportedly back to full strength. But backups J.T. O’Sullivan and Jordan Palmer are no great shakes. And the Bengals have never shied away from reclamation projects with legal issues. I could see this as a fit.

Cleveland – Brady Quinn and Derek Anderson are already fighting for the starting job with Eric Mangini-favorite Brett Ratliff also in camp. Doesn’t seem like a fit for Vick.

Pittsburgh – Ben Roethlisberger is apparently facing some sexual assault allegations in civil court, but it’s too early to say what will happen there. Charlie Batch is a decent backup. Pittsburgh wouldn’t be a top five guess for me, but I wouldn’t rule this out.

AFC South
Houston – Reunite Vick with Matt Schaub? I doubt it. Schaub is a better passer and Rex Grossman is fighting Dan Orlovsky for the backup job. Probably not a fit.

Indianapolis – Peyton Manning never misses games. And Jim Sorgi has mastered carrying the clipboard. Probably not a fit unless something catastrophic happens to Manning before the season starts.

Jacksonville – David Garrard is coming off of a sub-par season and the backups are uninspiring. But the Jags spent the offseason trying to improve team chemistry. Would Vick fit in with that strategy? I have doubts.

Tennessee – Kerry Collins is aging but solid. And the Titans already have an athletic backup with passing accuracy issues in Vince Young in the backup slot – and Young has more upside and less baggage – so adding Vick seems like a long shot.

AFC West
Denver – Brought in Kyle Orton and Chris Simms during the offseason. Not that they are superstars, but the team has gotten enough bad publicity from the Jay Cutler fiasco this offseason to make adding Vick less than desirable, I would think.

Kansas City – Added Matt Cassel via trade and signed him to a huge contract extension – can’t see them bringing in a quarterback that could potentially create a controversy if Cassel starts slowly.

Oakland – Probably the biggest wild card in the league. JaMarcus Russell is the starter and Jeff Garcia is the backup, but Al Davis not only never shies away from controversy, he almost revels in it. Plus he’s a huge advocate of speed and athleticism to an inordinate degree – just look at the 2009 draft. I’d put these guys in the top three.

San Diego – Philip Rivers. Billy Volek. No need here.

NFC East
Dallas – Tony Romo is the starter and Jon Kitna is a solid backup. But Jerry Jones is another guy who likes making headlines. It’s a long-shot, but I wouldn’t rule it out.

New York Giants – No chance for Vick to win the starting job from Eli Manning. Backup is David Carr. Rhett Bomar and Andre’ Woodson are developmental guys. Seems a long-shot – plus it might be best for Vick to avoid the major media market for awhile.

Philadelphia – Like Vick, Donovan McNabb is an athletic quarterback. Unlike Vick, McNabb has a credible arm. Kevin Kolb seems to be the QB of the future. I don’t see Vick ending up here.

Washington – Dan Snyder seems to want to replace Jason Campbell and the backups on the roster are either developmental projects (Chase Daniel, Colt Brennan) or aging and best left as backups (Todd Collins). Might be one of the best shots Vick would have to come compete for playing time right away. And, like Jones and Davis, Snyder loves to see his name in the paper.

NFC North
Chicago – Just traded for Cutler in the offseason. Not going to happen.

Detroit – Just drafted Matt Stafford and Daunte Culpepper is there as the veteran punching bag. No need for Vick.

Green Bay – Aaron Rodgers is entrenched. Backups are uninspiring. Wouldn’t rule it out completely but would classify it as a long-shot.

Minnesota – Brett Favre seems just short of a sure thing, but still no long-term answer. Vick could actually be better than Sage Rosenfels, John David Booty and Tarvaris Jackson. Owner Zygi Wilf would have to weigh signing Vick against his “Culture of Accountability”. I would lean toward saying the Vikes won’t consider Vick, but this franchise has become a bit of a wild card.

NFC South
Atlanta – Vick’s original franchise has moved on with Matt Ryan. No chance.

Carolina – Made a large financial commitment to Jake Delhomme in the offseason. Vick throwing deep to Steve Smith is an interesting concept. Doesn’t seem like a fit on a John Fox-coached team though.

New Orleans – Drew Brees.

Tampa Bay – The Bucs drafted Josh Freeman and they have Josh Johnson, Luke McCown and Byron Leftwich on the roster.

NFC West
Arizona – Kurt Warner and Matt Leinert are already there.

St. Louis – Marc Bulger is fine when healthy, which is almost never. Kyle Boller was signed as a backup. Vick might be an interesting add here.

San Francisco – There is no clear-cut winner in this fight between Shaun Hill, Alex Smith, Damon Huard and rookie Nate Davis. Mike Singletary could be a good disciplinarian of a coach for Vick too.

Seattle – Matt Hasselbeck is back and reportedly healthy. Seneca Wallace’s results last season strongly indicate that while he might be able to handle filling in for a game or two, he doesn’t appear to have the goods to be a full-time starter in the NFL. This would allow Vick to get about as far away from Atlanta as possible and he’d reunite with Jim Mora. Would Mora want him?

So there aren’t a ton of great scenarios for Vick to go compete for immediate playing time. If I had to put money down, I’d say his best shots to do so are in Washington, San Francisco and Buffalo.

But at the end of the day I think he lands with either Oakland and Cincinnati. Undoubtedly someone will give him a shot, and those two teams have been among the most willing in recent years to shun public relations in favor of making a splash on the field.