Before we get to our Super Bowl predictions, here’s a quick recap of our picks for the season.

I won the regular season competition with my brother, hitting a fairly solid 172-84 mark, three games ahead of Tony.

Those results have flip-flopped in the playoffs. I have been terrible, missing both Championship Weekend games and dropping to 3-7. Tony hit both of those games, moving his mark to 7-3. This has been an ugly turn of events.

And I’m not sure I have a real good read on the Super Bowl either, but we’ll give it a go anyway.

Andy:

New England vs New York Giants:

People have been calling this a rematch of the 2008 Super Bowl, but other than the jerseys, that’s really not the case. There are only something like 22 players remaining from the teams that met the evening New York thwarted New England’s efforts to go 18-0 (which also thwarted my efforts to cash in on a preseason bet I made in Las Vegas that New England would win the Super Bowl).

Just 24 players in total remain on the rosters from that game.

But the head coaches and the basic philosophies are still largely the same. The Patriots will try to throw the ball all over the place. The Giants also will wing the ball around while trying on defense to counteract the passing game with a rotating set of defensive linemen bringing a ferocious pass rush.

It’ll be fun to again watch two of the game’s best coaches, Bill Belichick and Tom Coughlin, match wits.

Where in 2008 the Patriots came in the heavy favorite, this year the Giants seem to be the popular pick, despite a point spread favoring New England. New England’s defense has been a sieve, particularly in the pass game. So Hakeem Nicks and Victor Cruz could be up for big games.

The Giants still have the heavy rushers that caused Tom Brady problems in the 2008 game, but New England has a different collection of weapons in Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski this time around.

I think the loss that ended New England’s perfect season has stuck in Belichick’s craw for nearly four years. And I think he is going to come out with some kind of wrinkle that will turn the game the way of the Patriots. This wasn’t the Super Bowl matchup I expected when the playoffs started and it wasn’t the game I was hoping for when the Championship games kicked off a week-and-change ago. But I do think the chess match between Belichick and Coughlin will make this a game worth tuning in to see.

Winner: New England

Tony:

New England vs New York Giants:

In 2008, following a perfect 16-0 regular season, the underdog New York Giants provided not only the blueprint for how teams could beat the New England Patriots, but how four years later they would knock the odds-on-favorite Green Bay Packers out of the playoffs in the divisional round.

The keys:

• Generate a pass rush with four down linemen, allowing for seven in coverage- Take the deep threat out of the game (as much as possible) by being aggressive with Randy Moss off the line of scrimmage.
• Limit YAC on underneath passes to Wes Welker with sure tackling.
• Limit the rushing attack.
• Force the run, even if it is not 100 percent effective, to take time off the clock and limit scoring chances.

The Giants have continued to use this formula well in 2011, and will presumably try to utilize it again on Sunday.

However, I think Bill Belichick has been scheming for this matchup – not specifically the Giants, but someone who would use this formula since the loss in 2008. Specifically, getting rid of Randy Moss and adding two talented tight ends (in the same draft), and adding a first round offensive tackle and two early round running backs in this season’s draft.

Instead of relying heavily on the vertical passing threat of Moss, the Patriots can utilize Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez in multiple ways – screens, short to intermediate passes, deeper threats when need be, and in the case of Hernandez, even in the running game, in recent weeks.  With Welker still in the mix, that provides three serious threats that the Giants have to cover, rather than just two–and the Giants have struggled mightily against top tier TE this season. They also have a better 4th option this year (Deion Branch), and assuming he is active, I wouldn’t overlook Chad Ochocinco as a vertical threat–he didn’t play much or well during the season, but it would be just like Bill Belichick to break out an unexpected weapon in the Super Bowl.

At the end of the day, I just don’t think that the Giants have enough on defense to match their 2008 feat–I do think it will be a decent game, but I’m picking the Patriots to prevail.

Winner: New England

*** As a side prediction: I don’t have any insider knowledge into this, but I wouldn’t be totally surprised if this was Bill Belichick’s last game as head coach of the Patriots, especially if they win.  Between actually allowing NFL Network unprecedented access to a season of football with him last year, to probably realizing that core players like Tom Brady are starting to show some signs of age and his defense being held together with smoke and mirrors, I could see him hanging it up and riding into the sunset.

So with that as context, here are our picks for Championship Sunday.Andy:

Baltimore at New England — It wasn’t surprising to me in the least that Bill Belichick was able to dream up a defensive scheme to stymie Tim Tebow over the course of his bye week. Give the evil genius that much time and he’s bound to come up with something.

It will be tougher this week against a Baltimore team with a better defense and more competent quarterback than Denver. No, that’s not to say Joe Flacco has been great this season. Far from it. But he has completed 58 percent of his passes and thrown 20 touchdowns, which Tim Tebow … hasn’t.

The Patriots are a far better team this year than the one that got destroyed by Baltimore in the playoffs following the 2009 season. And Tom Brady seems to love the arsenal of toys he has since acquired, particularly Rob Gronkowski and Aaron Hernandez.

But the Patriots are fairly one-dimensional offensively and terribly vulnerable defensively. The Ravens, on the other hand, are more balanced offensively, with Ray Rice contributing both through the air and on the ground. And they are better — and tougher — defensively.

Most of what I’ve read so far almost makes New England advancing to the Super Bowl a foregone conclusion. I don’t agree.
Winner: Baltimore

New York Giants at San Francisco — I really haven’t believed in either of these teams all season long. I thought the Giants would be okay but not great. Hell, I’ve picked against them twice in the playoffs already. I thought San Francisco was going to be terrible. That Jim Harbaugh wanted to bring back Alex Smith seemed more like a play for trying to draft Andrew Luck than trying to win the Lombardi Trophy.

Boy, was I wrong.

The Giants were absolutely impressive during their win at Green Bay. They won by 17 and, without a couple of really bad calls by officials, that would have been an even bigger margin. They’re the proverbial team that caught fire at the right time and they definitely deserve to be in this game.

The 49ers also impressed the hell out of me last weekend. I definitely believed going into the game that they were much improved and that they had produced a great season, far better than any of their fans should have expected heading into September.

But I also figured they were the beneficiaries of playing the weak NFC West and that the 13-3 mark was somewhat inflated. Last weekend proved otherwise. This might be the most fundamentally sound tackling defense I have watched in years. The run defense has been stout all year, but the pass defense also made Drew Brees earn every single yard he threw for last weekend.

Offensively, there are still things Alex Smith cannot do, but he is playing the best football of his career. And he proved that when a team needs him to make plays at the end of a tight game he is capable of coming through. I think the Niners cap it off this weekend.
Winner: San Francisco

Tony:

Baltimore at New England — I’ve done a complete 180 degree turn on my Super Bowl thoughts, previously thinking that the AFC had little hope to defeating the Packers (even though I picked them to lose last week) or the Saints, to thinking that the AFC has the significant upper hand.  In fact, this may be the best game of the playoffs, right here—strength vs. strength, weakness vs. weakness.  I don’t think the Ravens defense is as good as it was in their prime, and is probably a notch below the Patriots offense.  At the same time, if there is one team that can possibly match up with that offense, and minimize the three top threats (Gronk, Hernandez and Welker) to force Brady to find another way to win, it’s the Ravens. At the same time, I don’t think the Ravens offense is as bad as they’ve been given credit for—20 points last week wasn’t a lot, but that’s against a tough Texans team. And the Patriots defense, while playing better, still is pretty bad.

In the end, this one might just come down to experience, moreso than pure talent—and in that case, looking at the two men who are being counted on to lead their teams, you have to give the nod to Tom Brady over Joe Flacco.
Winner: New England

New York Giants at San Francisco — In a game straight out of the 80’s, albeit with some twists—the 49ers are known for defense and running the ball, rather than featuring a star QB running the west coast, and the Giants have the bigger stars on the offensive side of the ball (although they still rely heavily on their fierce pass rush, just like the 80’s).  While not as intriguing as the AFC matchup, this game could also be fun to watch for the weather factor, with potential for rain and cold hitting San Francisco.

If either divisional matchup had gone the other way, I don’t believe this one would be nearly as competitive as this matchup should be.  However, while Alex Smith deserves a lot of credit for getting his team this far, I’m not sure I believe he can get them over the obstacle that is the Giants defensive line. Rain may help, as the 49ers running game is probably better than the Giants—but in the end, again, I think Eli Manning gets the job done to set up a Super Bowl rematch with Tom Brady.
Winner: New York Giants

So of course you are waiting on the edge of your seats to see who we’re going to pick this week, right?

Suckers.

Here goes:

Andy’s Take

Denver at New England – This can’t possibly keep happening, can it? If Denver can get past New England I might actually pick the Broncos to go to the Super Bowl. But I don’t think they can go to Foxboro and win. Denver did lead the regular season game between these two teams until they started turning the ball over. Then the Patriots ran away with the game. New England is not nearly as unstoppable at home in the playoffs in recent years as they are during the regular season but they’re on a roll right now in spite of a weak defense.
Winner: New England

New Orleans at San Francisco – This is a match-up I’ve been waiting to see. San Francisco’s old-school, run-the-ball-and-play-defense strategy matched up with the Saints’ throw the ball all over the place tactics. New Orleans isn’t the same team on the road that it is in the Superdome. But they’re playing white-hot football right now. Though they finished 13-3, San Francisco’s body of work down the stretch isn’t quite as impressive as the Saints’ is. And while the turnaround has been impressive under Jim Harbaugh, it’s also due, at least in part, to the competition they’re playing in the NFC West.
Winner: New Orleans

Houston at Baltimore – The Texans got all phases working pretty well last week against Cincinnati. You even heard the name Andre Johnson in a meaningful situation for the first time in quite awhile. It won’t be quite as easy against Baltimore. The Ravens were undefeated at home and they played much better in games against good teams. Can the Texans stop Ray Rice? Can the Ravens stop Arian Foster? If either team succeeds in turning the other into a one-dimensional offense, they’ll probably come out ahead. TJ Yates has played pretty well for a rookie who probably expected to have an easy first season riding the pine. The injuries Houston has suffered throughout the season really could come into play here.
Winner: Baltimore

New York Giants at Green Bay – The Giants kept the earlier season meeting with Green Bay close, but at the end of the day, it was just another loss. The Giants have been playing well, err, well, better, anyway, of late. The Packers almost seemed to get bored for a short stretch. But this is the playoffs and I have no doubt they’ll come up big in this game. Some of the pundits are talking upset in this one. I think it might be the most lopsided game of the weekend.
Winner: Green Bay

Tony’s Take

Denver at New England – If this game is close, we’re doomed to another week of Tebowmania – possibly even if it’s a blowout, thanks to the talking heads at ESPN. Either why he won it, why he didn’t, etc. Seriously, it’s almost as bad as Brett Favre coverage was at his worst – and Tebow hasn’t done anything yet. If they win this week – especially with some questionable formations – you know that the fix is in. Fortunately, I don’t see it happening – I don’t see the Broncos finding a way to slow the Patriots down any more than they did in the regular season.
Winner: New England

New Orleans at San Francisco – Possibly the best matchup of the weekend, with a strong defense against a strong offense, and a mediocre offense against a mediocre defense. This one could come down to weather – if it’s bad, that probably plays a bit more into San Francisco’s hands. If not, I think New Orleans offense has the edge against a team that isn’t playoff tested.
Winner: New Orleans

Houston at Baltimore – Based on their regular season, Baltimore should have brought in St. Mary Theresa’s School for the Blind and Criminally Insane for a scrimmage – and then lost. Seriously, I don’t remember a team in recent history that was quite so up for the big games, and let down so much for the lesser ones. On paper, with the Texans using their 3rd or 4th QB, this one is a no-brainer – and that’s what worries me. Not enough to pick against them, but enough to get it in writing that I’m worried.
Winner: Baltimore

NY Giants at Green Bay – Speaking of getting it in writing…this game is another one that may have trap written all over it. My co-worker Packer fans have been mixed this week – one guy is giving the Giants a chance, while another finally admitted that the only team that scares him is the Saints. By all rights the Pack should walk away with this one – especially against a Giants team that at the end of the day couldn’t put their own division away until the last week. But at the same time, they also shouldn’t have beaten the Patriots in the Super Bowl during the Pats perfect season run – and the formula that won that one could still work today, as they still have the defensive line quality and depth to give the Packers fits. I’ll go ahead and go out on a limb on this one, just so it’s in writing – and if I’m wrong, I’ll just gloss over it like any good blogger…
Winner: NY Giants

So, we’ve decided to take this show through the playoffs. The format will change a bit. We’re going to not only provide our pick for who will win the game but some meaningless thoughts about why, as well. So sit back and enjoy.  Or something.

Andy’s Take:

Cincinnati at Houston – Neither team enters this game playing particularly well. Houston has lost three in a row and could be starting a fourth-string quarterback, albeit an experienced one in Jake Delhomme. Cincinnati closed with the tough part of its schedule, losing three of five. I like the Bengals to steal this one on the road with Andy Dalton and AJ Green coming up big in an upset.
Winner: Cincinnati

Atlanta at New York Giants – The Giants looked good ending the season with a dominant win over Dallas. But then again Dallas was kind of exposed throughout the season. Atlanta played in a better division than the Giants and emerged with a better record than New York. With Julio Jones really stepping up his game toward the end of the season there are too many weapons on Atlanta’s offense for New York to stop.
Winner: Atlanta

Detroit at New Orleans – Drew Brees has been incredible this season, particularly at home. Detroit’s offense has been on a roll too, but nobody in the league, including Green Bay, has gelled like the Saints have at the end of the season. New Orleans is averaging 40 points per game at home in 2011. That continues.
Winner: New Orleans

Pittsburgh at Denver – There are three games I’m really looking forward to watching next weekend. This is the other one. This one got the Sunday Prime Time slot? Really? Denver doesn’t really deserve to be in the playoffs, though nobody else in the AFC West division does either. Pittsburgh is pretty good at stopping the run, the one thing Denver does well on defense. And Tim Tebow has regressed in recent weeks. No contest.
Winner: Pittsburgh

Tony’s Take:

Cincinnati at Houston – Frankly, this is a game of also-rans that aims to see who gets to lose next week. Cincinnati is definitely healthier coming in, but they are on the road, and the Texans actually potentially gained experience by losing TJ Yates for late season signing Jake Delhomme. Whether it’s Yates or Delhomme at the helm, I think Arian Foster and Ben Tate allow Houston to grind out a win in the team’s first ever playoff game.
Winner: Houston

Atlanta at New York Giants – Tom Coughlin ranks second on my list of coaches that will presumably not be fired, but probably should be. His team had several chances down the stretch of the season to take over the NFC East and just couldn’t pull it together. Giants fans should almost be hoping for a beat down by the Falcons, so the team will take a serious look at its future. That being said, the defensive line remains the strength of the team, and with Osi Umenyiora healthy, it adds yet another pass rushing threat against a line that has struggled, and a quarterback that has shown he can be rattled this year. This might end up being actually being a good game.
Winner: Atlanta

Detroit at New Orleans – Detroit’s offense actually kept up with Green Bay’s offense in Week 17—normally not a big deal with the backup quarterback starts, but Matt Flynn was the talk of the league with his franchise record-setting performance. Unfortunately, Detroit’s defense kept up with Green Bay’s as well. They remain an undisciplined team, one with basically no playoff experience. I expect Drew Brees to carve them up.
Winner: New Orleans

Denver at Pittsburgh – With Rashard Mendenhall out, Ben Roethlisberger struggling since his high ankle sprain, and Tim Tebow playing like…Tim Tebow – not to mention two of the best defenses in the AFC – this should be a classic defensive struggle. The big difference is Tebow managed to find ways to win a few games he shouldn’t have this year; Roethlisberger has managed during his career to win a number of playoff games that the Steelers shouldn’t have won.
Winner: Pittsburgh

That leaves us one game apart heading into the final week, with Andy at 160-80 and myself at 159-81.  And, of course, we have four games separating us again this week, with Andy believing that the Bears, Lions, Chiefs and Ravens will win, while I think the Vikings will find a way to screw up their season even worse, Green Bay will still pull out a win, the NFL will find a way for Tebowmania to continue, and the Ravens will choke again down the stretch.

Game of the Week: Dallas @ NY Giants: Sunday night, head to head, winner wins the division, loser goes home. One of the most popular (and reviled) teams in the country vesus the still dominant team in the largest media market in the world. The kind of game that NBC executives have wet dreams about.

Game of the Weak: Dallas @ NY Giants: It may be what NBC executives dream about, and it may end up being a competitive game, but not because either team is any good.  These are two teams that, if not for the ineptitude of Mike Shanahan & the Philadelphia Eagles would already have played themselves out of the playoff pictures.

That puts us at 150-74 (Andy) and 149-75 (Tony) for the season, which  puts us on par with many national “experts”.

This week, four games are picked differently—about as many as we’ve ever picked separately, and probably enough to give one of us a solid lead heading into Week 17.  Or, if things go as normal, we’ll split and still be just one game apart…

Game of the Week: Atlanta @ New Orleans – Finally, a Monday night game that ESPN can’t complain about. There are finally plenty of matchups that could be chosen as Game of the Week heading into the playoffs stretch—New York @ New York, Chicago @ Green Bay, Philadelphia @ Dallas. But the Falcons ride a two game winning streak, and 4-1 over the last five into New Orleans to play the division leading Saints, who have won six in a row, and have a quarterback on track to beat the single season passing record—with another week like he had against the Vikings, possibly even in this game.

Game of the Weak: Minnesota @ Washington – Almost every game this week has at least one team in the playoffs, looking to make the playoffs, or working to build on success in the 2011 season. That’s what makes this game stand out. Yes, the Redskins are coming off of a victory over the Giants—but their season has been marred by injuries, suspensions, and having to choose each week between Rex Grossman and John Beck as a starting QB. The Vikings, meanwhile, need to win one of their last two to avoid setting a franchise record for futility, and need to win out to not tie their record for futility, set in 1984 in the team’s lone season under Les Steckel. Now many fans are starting to wonder if Les(lie) Frazier will suffer the same consequences as Steckel, and coach just one season.

Three games separate us again this week—most likely the sink or swim week for me, with at least two considerable upsets needed for me to gain ground, in Indianapolis and Carolina, with Miami’s firing of Tony Sparano being the main reason for my choice of Buffalo over Miami.

Game of the Week: New England @ Denver – Tebowmania has almost reached the same level of annoyingness as Packermania (at least here in Minnesota).  But this will be his first true test—a team that can actually take apart the defense that is actually winning them games. Tebow will have to match Brady strike for strike, and while the Patriots defense is susceptible, I doubt in the long run Tebow can keep up. If Denver wins this one, it will have to be on Willis McGahee’s legs and a defense that will need to find a way to stop Wes Welker and Rob Gronkowski.

Game of the Weak: NY Jets @ Philadelphia – Conventional wisdom would say lopsided matchups like Green Bay/Kansas City or New Orleans/Minnesota would be worse games—but we’re going to go with the matchup between two of the bigger disappointments of the season.  True, the Jets have managed to claw back into a playoff spot (for now), but the play of Mark Sanchez has been uneven at best, and the Eagles have been downright terrible compared to the expectations of Philadelphia after the offseason. Give me Tennessee @ Indianapolis any day of the week.

Andy managed to hit two of the three games we were different on last week, going 12-4 for the week, with my San Diego pick coming through last night to keep me at 11-5—that gives him a one game lead for the season, which I can erase with a Carolina victory over Atlanta this week, the only difference in our Week 14 picks.

Game of the Week: New York Giants @ Dallas – With Dallas falling to the lowly Cardinals, they missed an opportunity to take a two game lead on the Giants—making their first head-to-head matchup of the year even more significant. The Giants have lost four in a row, but played the unbeaten Packers extremely close after getting thrashed by the Saints the week before. This should be a solid matchup on Sunday night.

Game of the Weak: St. Louis @ Seattle – And, for every solid Sunday night game, there is an equally atrocious Monday night game. Seriously, ESPN has to be livid behind the scenes—even though these two teams fought for the division crown last year, no one really thought this would be a good matchup, did they?  Through Jon Gruden and Ron Jaworski into the mix, and suicide hotlines around the country should be on alert for anyone that actually watches more than five minutes of this.

Week 13 brings three matchups where we differ, so we’ll definitely see a leader heading into Week 14. Andy appears to be using some of my own logic against me, avoiding two west coast teams that are heading east in picking Miami over Oakland (which might be a solid pick, given how the Dolphins have been playing) and Jacksonville over San Diego. I think the running games from Oakland and Tampa Bay (over Carolina) will carry the day, and that the turmoil in Jacksonville with Jack Del Rio being fired will reign.

Game of the Week: Cincinnati @ Pittsburgh – I don’t know if this will really be as big of a game as it seems, as I still feel that Pittsburgh is a clear step ahead of Cincinnati at this point. But unless you’re a sickie that likes to watch trainwrecks like Indianapolis @ New England, there isn’t much on this week’s slate of games.  And if the Bengals do manage to pull off a victory, and the Ravens somehow manage to lose to the Cleveland Browns (unlikely, but the kind of game Baltimore has struggled with this year), the AFC North continues to be the most tightly contested division in the NFL.

Game of the Weak: San Diego @ Jacksonville – Seriously, how many Games of the Weak this year have been on Monday Night? ESPN & the NFL need to figure out some sort of solution for this.  Who really wants to watch Jacksonville or San Diego do anything?  As mentioned, the Jaguars just fired their head coach. The Chargers, who finally started a season on a positive note, have lost six straight, including getting Tebagged by Tebow last week, despite John Fox’s desperate attempt to out-Norv Turner Norv Turner himself by lamely not playing for the win in regulation. I’ve got better things to do with my Monday night than watch this garbage.

Last week we managed to split the four games we picked differently, meaning I remain two back for the season.  I’ve lost track of our overall records, but we’re still picking ahead of several national “experts” with our 10-4 last week.  This week, even just the Thursday games provide two games that we go different ways on, followed by two more on Sunday, making for another interesting week.

Game of the Week – Thursday Edition: San Francisco @ Baltimore – The battle of the Harbaugh’s pitches one of the best in the AFC vs. one of the best in the NFC. Should be a good matchup for the late game on Thursday.

Game of the Week: NY Giants @ New Orleans – Another interesting matchup on Monday night, between two teams that could be vying to host a first round playoff game, or if their cards play out just right, possibly even a shot at a first round bye.

Game of the Weak: Carolina @ Indianapolis – There seem to be a plethora of bad games every week to choose from, and this week is really no different—from terrible teams matching up (Arizona @ St. Louis, Washington @ Seattle) to one-sided matchups (Pittsburgh @ Kansas City, Minnesota @ Atlanta).  But the cream of the crop is Carolina @ Indianapolis—last year’s first overall pick (Cam Newton) vs. the team with a two game lead on this year’s first overall pick.  In theory the Panthers have the significant edge, having been played better all season—but they’ve still managed to lose 8 of their 10 games. The Colts have been…brutal. All season. This one doesn’t have a chance of getting ugly—it’s guaranteed to be ugly.