Polls
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After weeks of struggling to work my way back to a tie for the overall season record in picking games, we had two games picked differently last week—and I managed to get myself on the wrong side of both of them. My faith in the Jets fans ability to make enough noise to slow down the Patriots and the Browns to do … anything … was clearly unfounded, and now I’ve got my work cut out for me (and yet I’m picking the Browns again this weekend? Even I don’t know my logic on that one).
In week 11, though, we’ve actually got four games going differently—I would venture a guess that I’ve got the longer shot of being right on more of them, but it’s been a strange last few weeks in the NFL, so hopefully my upsets pan out.
Well, we’re a little late this week–we had our picks turned in with plenty of time, we just didn’t get them posted, due to our real jobs. And sitting at the two minute warning of the San Diego/Oakland game, it certainly looks like we’re both starting 0-1.
As suspected, Week 9 produced a 1-win advantage for myself, tying Andy and I for the season record at 84-46, which isn’t bad—you’d think that if we could pick games straight up at a 65% clip, that we could pick better bets than we do. But for whatever reason, no.
Another week of very similar picks this week, but two games (St. Louis/Cleveland and New England/NY Jets) will determine the overall leader.
Fortunately I did NOT go back in and make last second changes to Indianapolis & Denver—I was still thinking they might pull off the upsets, but figured it wasn’t worth it to make the change. Unfortunately, I didn’t think any more about Carolina or Philadelphia. Of course, no changes meant we had the second week of the season where Andy and I matched all of our picks—so no change in the season race, Andy still leads by one game (75-41 vs. 74-42).
We finished the week 8-5, and this week’s picks show exactly why jumping out to an early season lead in a pool like this is so important—we have only one game different this week, with Andy going out on a limb with the San Diego Chargers against the currently undefeated Green Bay Packers.
One more week, one more game picked up on Andy—my 9-4 record last week put me just one game back for the year, at 66-37 (vs. 67-36). The key picks on my radar were the Jets (San Diego doesn’t travel east well), and the Tebows Broncos comeback over the Dolphins.
This week, right now we’re 100% the same, so no more gaining games—I’ve been wavering on picking the Lions to continue their slide, and I’m half tempted to take an extreme upset of Indianapolis over Tennessee for some reason.
Week 6 saw me picking up one more game against Andy (thanks to my picking of Tampa Bay, which I’m not sure wasn’t actually a typo on my part), finishing 10-3 vs. Andy’s 9-4. For the season, Andy now leads 59-31 to my 57-33. Two more weeks and I should catch him.
Of course, weeks like this may separate the amateurs from the pros, with lots of terrible matchups that could go either way—in our head to head picking, it may be one of the worst matchups of the week (Denver @ Miami) that might be the turning point, although we had two other matchups picked differently…
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