If we should have been in Vegas for Week 2 of the NFL season, Week 3 is the clear cut example of why our wives don’t like it when we talk about flying out multiple times during the season (for finding other ways to bet large sums of money on football).

I matched my perfect Week 2 with a perfect 0-4 record in Week 3, while Andy followed up his 3-1 week with a 1-3 week.  If I followed my patterns in Vegas, this is when I would get sick of betting football, and start betting stupid parlays that had no reason to cover (and yet often do), and making weird prop bets—like betting on the number of times that the infamous Tuck Rule play is referenced during the Patriots/Raiders game on Sunday (currently the over/under is at 17.5 including the CBS pregame show, and I’m big on the over).

This week’s best bets (to avoid?):

Andy:

Carolina (+6.5) at Chicago – Carolina has shown no fear of going on the road. Cam Newton has been a revelation for the Panthers. Meanwhile the Bears continue to show no interest in running the ball. If the Panthers can turn the Bears one dimensional on offense I could even see betting the moneyline, which is running at +240 for Carolina early in the week.

Philadelphia (-7) vs San Francisco – San Francisco has won two games, but they’ve been against two of the crappier teams in the league. The “Dream Team” has been exposed a bit early in the season, but the Eagles are at home. If the 49ers can keep the game close they’ll be able to use Frank Gore to attack the Eagles’ weak run defense. But if Philadelphia can get an early lead they’ll force the game into Alex Smith’s hands and that won’t work.

Atlanta (-4.5) at Seattle – I’ve lost many times betting on good teams going across the country to play bad teams. For some reason lengthy travel often seems to play a role in the results of games. However, the Seahawks are terrible, ranking highly in the Luck-o-Meter race right now despite winning last weekend against Arizona. Atlanta is a much better team than Seattle. More importantly they’re desperate, having started 1-2 with a division loss to Tampa. They right the ship this week against the Seahawks.

Upset of the week: Pittsburgh (+4, +180 moneyline) at Houston – The Texans are favored over the Steelers? Really? Actually Houston probably deserves to be a four point favorite. But the Steelers are still a blue collar, hard core football team that can win on any given Sunday. Houston’s defense is improving and the offense is stellar. A win in this game would show they are a real contender in the AFC. A loss wouldn’t be devastating but it would show that the changing of the guard is not going to happen without a fight.

Tony:

New Orleans (-7) at Jacksonville – Barring another monsoon game for the Jaguars, I don’t think there’s any way that Jacksonville can keep up with the Saints. They can maybe keep it close if they can control the ground game with Maurice Jones-Drew, but even if it’s close, I think the Saints can tack one on late to beat the spread.

San Francisco (+7) at Philadelphia – I almost picked the 49ers to win, with Vick out—the whole west coast team traveling east was the only thing holding me back.  Assuming Vick doesn’t play, I don’t think Mike Kafka (or Vince Young) could provide the same level of offense.  The Eagles defense probably wins them the game, but their offense keeps it close.

NY Jets @ Baltimore: Over 40 – Both teams are better known for their defenses, but both offenses have actually looked solid so far this season (the Jets have put up 27.7 points per game, the Ravens 28.3).  While the Ravens have the best scoring defense in the league (40 points allowed), the line seems a bit low at 40 points—even if the Jets split the difference between their average and the Ravens allowed they put up 20 points—leaving the Ravens just needing 21 in their win to cover the over.

Upset of the Week: Carolina (+6.5/+250 money line) @ Chicago – This one might be an ultimate reach, but I still think that the Bears are vastly overrated, and I think their last two games show that—Mike Martz continues to completely abandon the running game, on a team that needs some balance—and that puts more pressure on a defense that carries the team, but still isn’t as good as their reputation. The Panthers, meanwhile, have completely surprised me—Cam Newton looked good in his keeping his first two starts close, and finally found a way to win last week, despite less than ideal conditions.  The Bears are better than the Jaguars—but unless it suddenly turns into monsoon season in Chicago, I think Newton can put up numbers against the Bears defensive backs, and at +250 on the money line, I’ll take the chance that they can win outright.