I did a little better at picking winners last week, hitting three of four. Stupid Texans — CJ Stroud, ooof.
But it’s a good thing I’m not in Vegas right now. I’m 6-4 straight up, but only 3-7 against the spread. Oh well.
So, NFL Championship Sunday presents a couple of interesting games. I’m intrigued.
Sunday, January 25
Patriots (-4) at Broncos – I think I might be among only a handful not thinking the world is coming to an end with Bo Nix breaking his ankle. Don’t get me wrong, Nix is good. But this game was going to be a defensive dogfight even before the Broncos lost their QB. And while the young Drake Maye has been fantastic, this is a different kind of a spot for a young player, too. Jarrett Stidham is fairly highly regarded as a backup — of course his coach would say so, but Sean Payton says Stidham would start for at least a handful of teams in the league. I don’t think he’s going to wilt under pressure. Denver’s defense is still strong. Stidham will play serviceably, avoiding stupid mistakes and making a few plays, a la Jeff Hostetler for the Giants in 1990 and Nick Foles in 2017. RJ Harvey will have a game. The game will go well under the Vegas 43.5 total. Maybe it’s wishful thinking and delusion, but … the Broncos will win and cover.
Rams at Seahawks (-2.5) – Los Angeles was expected all along to be among the league’s top teams in 2025. Many “experts” picked them to go to or win the Super Bowl. Predictions for Seattle were a little more across the board. They’ve been great, but they, too, suffered a significant injury heading into the game — Zach Charbonnet, the pounder in the tandem with Kenneth Walker — tore his ACL last week. One could argue Walker will pick up that slack, but Seattle relies heavily on the run game to make sure Sam Darnold doesn’t have to do too much. The Seahawks had the top-ranked scoring defense on the season, but Matt Stafford and Co. put up 37 and 21 against them in splitting the first two meetings. Darnold has rejuvenated his career nicely the last couple years, but in this situation, I’m betting on the MVP and previous Super Bowl champ. Rams win and cover.
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Yep, the games everybody has waited for.
I think Denver will cover in a close game at home but I am picking the Patriots. Hopefully both QBs show poise but the Patriots can move the ball on anybody. Denver has to get to Maye and not let them run the ball like Buffalo did.
Stafford and the Rams are poised to make another SB run, but I feel Seattle will win later and cover. The Rams defense has not been the same since the Seahawks came back in that second game. If Darnold can mostly hand off to Walker and avoid turnovers, their defense can get to Stafford.
I didnt bet this week … too close to call.
Brian, you mention Walker, Stafford … anyone else you like for a hypothetical DFS lineup? Hypothetically? Maybe a sleeper or two?
Got back late Andy, I wasnt sure what you meant? Did you do prop betting or just put together a lineup for these games?
Darnold played the best game of his career getting to the SB. After that stupid Woolen sequence, I thought the Hawks had lost their cool and the Rams would pull it out. Just like in the Broncos game earlier, the Rams went for it on 4th down and left points off the scoreboard.
That fumble by Stidham cost them the game. A tough way for the year to end for the Rams and Broncos.