Oof. Ugly week last week. Hit only three of six straight up and two of six against the spread.
Maybe it’s a good thing sports gambling isn’t legal here.
The divisional round is typically my favorite weekend of the NFL playoffs. The pretenders are usually out. There are usually four really good match-ups. This year is no different.
Saturday, Jan. 17
Bills at Broncos (-1.5) – This is the first time I can recall looking at the odds in various Vegas outlets and seeing spreads favoring each team. They ranged from about 1 to 1.5 in either team’s direction. The site I’m using for this favors Denver. My brother disagrees – last I heard he thought Josh Allen could overcome using TEs Dalton Kincaid and Dawson Knox. I think I’m going the other way. The key differences here for me are that Buffalo struggles stopping the run and Buffalo’s already less-than-stellar receiving corps took a couple ACL hits last week. I think this is a big game for RJ Harvey, Denver’s rookie RB. Broncos win and cover.
49ers at Seahawks (-7) – San Francisco can’t get any love. Seattle is probably the better team, especially with the Niners still fighting back from injuries. But this is a rivalry game and Brock Purdy will keep this close. And if it stays close, I could see being more comfortable with Purdy than with Sam Darnold late. Ultimately, Seattle is starting to look like the team of destiny in the NFC a little bit. I do think they pull it off. Seahawks win. 49ers cover.
Sunday, Jan. 18 –
Texans at Patriots (-3.5) – I am hugely impressed with Houston’s defense, to the point where a skilled but less-than-great Texans offense doesn’t need to do much to win. I am a huge Drake Maye fan, but the Chargers held New England to 16 last week and that was only with a late TD. Texans win, Texans cover.
Rams (-4) at Bears – My picks wouldn’t have sucked nearly as much last week if Green Bay had held on to beat Chicago. Speaking of teams of destiny … the Bears have had a brilliant turnaround season this year. Caleb Williams looks like the real deal. But for most of the season, the general consensus was that the Rams were one of the league’s best teams. I think an extra day of rest and Matt Stafford’s veteran presence take over here, especially if they can get up early. They’re not giving up a 21-3 lead like the Packers did. Rans win, Rams cover.
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Good takes, Andy … I took the plunge and went with a small parlay on sunday.
Taking the Patriots as favorites. I dont think the Texans win without Collins. Should be a great defensive game but the Texans have to prove they can get over the hump in the divisional round.
This is a great Bears year and they have revitalized their offense but can they stop the Rams? Can the Rams win in freezing weather? I am taking the Rams since they have stayed consistent all year. My spread was -3.5 points but keeps moving.
I really hope the Bills can win again. This is a great chance for Allen to finally get to the SB but they are so banged up. That secondary can force turnovers though and will need them. I predict the Broncos winning in the last few minutes.
The Niners have their chance to win but the weather in Seattle is always tricky with slick, wet conditions. Ball security will be the difference. I think Seattle will win but the Niners will cover.
These two weekends, including next week are the best NFL weeks of the year.