Rookie offensive linemen will boost skill players’ fantasy value

by | May 4, 2011 | Fantasy Football, NFL Draft

When the Atlanta Falcons traded five picks to move up and draft Julio Jones in the first round last Thursday night, the move put the star wideout in an ideal situation where he is surrounded by a young, improving quarterback and superstar veterans at running back, tight end and wide receiver.

Jones’ skills boosted the fantasy value of several of his new teammates and the wealth of talent around him puts him in a position to contribute right away.

So sure, like every year, there are a handful of skill players (see Mark Ingram, New Orleans) who were drafted that could leave early impressions on fantasy teams. But in my eyes the biggest beneficiaries from a fantasy perspective in this NFL draft were veteran skill position players whose teams addressed deficient offensive line play. (more…)

Fantasy football also affected by lockout

by | Apr 19, 2011 | 2011 season, Fantasy Football, NFL Lockout, NFL Random Thoughts

The NFL lockout is becoming a drag in more ways than one. Sure, it’s kind of cute … well, no, it’s really not cute at all … when players and owners get up in front of cameras or type away on twitter telling fans not to worry because they expect to make a deal in time to ensure that games are not canceled.

Or when the league moves forward with their farcical plan for a two-hour special on NFL Network introducing the schedules for the season that may or may not be played.

The truth is even if the league and the players miraculously settle during forced negotiations this afternoon, the lockout has already gone on long enough to ensure that the quality of play on the field in 2011 will suffer.

Free agency has been postponed for more than a month, leaving teams unsure how they will fill holes from last season. Minicamps have been lost, especially hard for teams with new coaches and new systems. And at this point there is little indication the collective bargaining process will conclude by next week’s NFL draft, so rookies and other new entrants to the league are almost inevitably going to lose at least one and likely more opportunities for pre-training camp instruction with coaches.

That means we are also closing in on the point where, assuming football is played in 2011, the lockout will have a direct effect on fantasy football this season as well. What teams and players benefit from this situation? Will there still be rookies who are worth drafting for your teams in 2011? We at Zoneblitz feel continuity will be key this season but we contacted fantasy football writer Ryan Boser, who contributes to a number of fantasy sites, to see what he thinks.

Zoneblitz: With a shortened free agency period and minicamps already being canceled it would seem to us that continuity and lack of roster turnover will be key to success in 2011. Do you agree? (more…)

Ryan Boser offers Zoneblitz readers fantasy football feedback

by | Jan 31, 2011 | Fantasy Football

The Steelers-Packers Super Bowl will put the finishing touches on another football season and start for many of us another several months of withdrawal. This year it’s likely going to be worse, with fewer reports of offseason training programs and more news revolving around collective bargaining talks between owners and players.

But true fantasy football players know they can’t be caught off guard. If the owners and players come to their senses, there will be football in 2011 – and if there is football in 2011, there will be fantasy football in 2011, as well.

Ryan Boser, who last year wrote for FantasyVictory.com and filled in no KFAN-AM 1130’s Fantasy Football Weekly program, took a few questions from Zoneblitz.com, filling us in on what he’ll be keeping an eye on in the months ahead.

Zoneblitz: Now that the football season is over what should serious fantasy players be paying attention to in preparation for next year?

Boser: Everybody’s going to watch where skill position players like DeAngelo Williams end up, or where the A.J. Green’s of the draft land. I’m often more interested in offensive line developments and coaching changes. That’s where fantasy production all starts.

Zoneblitz: Will Michael Vick repeat his great season? Where would you draft him and how much in a $100 auction would you spend on him?

Boser: For the first time in five years, he’ll be going through a normal offseason preparing as a starting NFL quarterback. He’ll return to the same coaching system, surrounded by the same dynamic playmakers, so everything is in place for a repeat. (more…)

Moss to Vikings? Fantasy implications

by | Oct 5, 2010 | Fantasy Football, NFL Random Thoughts

Randy Moss back to the Vikings? Who the hell knows.But the Internets are going wild so there is something to the rumors.

And if he does return to Minnesota it’s going to have some interesting fantasy ramifications.

For the Vikings, it returns Brett Favre to prominence. The offensive line has been a major part of the problem in Minnesota so far this season — but so has the lack of a downfield passing threat with Sidney Rice out and Percy Harvin struggling with various ailments. Moss isn’t the player he used to be but he still has plenty left and he will command coverage.

Everyone — yes, everyone (except Bernard Berrian) — on the Vikings offense will go up in value. Visanthe Shiancoe, Harvin, Greg Camarillo — they all go up in value. Some will go from zero value to a little (Camarillo) and others will go from matchup play to almost every week starter (Harvin).

(more…)

Suggestion for Forte owners: Sell high

by | Sep 15, 2010 | Fantasy Football

There has been a lot of steam around Matt Forte this offseason, both in real life and in fantasy football circles, where team owners have endlessly debated what the Bears running back would look like under Mike Martz’ system.

While I expect that he will be better than he was in 2009, savvy owners have already begun selling high after his Player of the Week performance against Detroit on Sunday. If you haven’t you should follow.

Through his first two seasons, Forte has five 100 yard rushing games. Three of those came in his rookie season of 2008 when everyone thought he was an emerging star. Those games came against Detroit, St. Louis and Indianapolis or, in order, the 32nd, 29th and 24th best run defenses in the league.

Still, his 1238 yards and 12 touchdowns (eight rushing, four receiving) had owners salivating heading into 2009. Those who got their hands on him were let down dramatically. Fighting through injuries, he mustered just 929 yards rushing and four touchdowns, all on the ground.

His stock fell dramatically heading into this season as the Bears added Chester Taylor. But he’s on fire right now. In one of my leagues an owner already got Reggie Wayne for the Bears back off his Sunday performance.

I wouldn’t touch him with a 10 foot pole. Let’s dig a little deeper into the numbers to see why:

Even in his 1,238 yard rookie season, if you take out the three 100 yard games he had 937 yards on 258 carries, which amounts to 3.6 yards per carry and 72 yards per game. In 2009, he had two 100 yard rushing games – both against Detroit. So subtract those games and you’re left with 707 yards on 230 carries, or 3.1 yards per rush.

His five 100 yard games all time come against some of the worst run defenses of the last decade. His offensive line is terrible. And while I expect he will be more valuable this year, I hardly expect him to put up 151 yards receiving every week. Detroit is better than they have been but most definitely not yet a good defense by any stretch of the imagination.

Heading into the season, he had 384 yards in four games against the Lions, or 96 yards per game. In 28 games against other teams he has 1783 yards, or 64 per game. That’s pretty mediocre for a guy who has been pretty much unquestioned as the starter since his first game in the NFL.

And lost in his performance Sunday, Forte rushed for just 50 yards on 17 carries, less than three yards per carry.

Again, I do think Forte is better than his 2009 indicates. He is a good receiver, having put up 63 catches in 2008 and 57 in 2009, so he’s valuable in point per reception leagues and he might push 100 catches in Martz’ offense.

But he doesn’t get to play his entire career against Detroit. If he did, he would probably already be spending his off days posing for the bust he would eventually have at the Hall of Fame in Canton.

You can’t count on him breaking 80 yard touchdown receptions every week and, while he’ll catch a lot of balls, you can’t count on him to house two touchdowns every week.

Until he starts putting those numbers up against teams other than St. Louis and Detroit, I’d hang onto Reggie Waynes and Andre Johnsons and let some other sucker give away his elite players for this historically mediocre back.

FootballGuys help grade fantasy football teams

by | Aug 30, 2010 | Fantasy Football

Around this time of year if you go to football chat boards or fantasy football sites on facebook you’ll frequently see folks asking for opinions on their teams.

One facebook friend of mine in the industry has a couple dozen such questions just under one post – despite a note on his page saying he doesn’t have time to comment on fantasy football questions on facebook.

One of his friends today posted a comment to his site advising people to check out the website of www.fantasyfootballguys.com for assistance in grading teams. I thought it would probably be one of these two sentence deals where they said “nice team” or “better luck next year.”

I was wrong.

I entered two of the teams I was involved in drafting this weekend and was pleasantly surprised to see a five page report generated that I was able to see on the site and have emailed to me. It included analysis by position, advice on free agents that might be available to replace some of the rosters’ sub-par players, recent news hits and other useful information.

Plus, there are four people doing rankings, so you can click on another link to get three more reports.

I’m not going to say I agreed with everything they said. But it was nice to get some educated feedback from folks that added to the opinions I already have. They don’t know who is on the league’s other rosters. But they do let you enter your scoring systems (or close to them, anyway).

It’s not perfect. But it’s a pretty good instant analysis and a site I’ll probably revisit a few times during the upcoming season.