NFL Best Bets: Week 1 – 2012

by | Sep 4, 2012 | 2012 season, NFL Gambling

Neither of us put any fear into the “betting experts” last year when we started doing our “Best Bets.” But we had a good time doing them. So we’re bringing them back for another year.

There’s not a whole lot of science that goes into our picks. We look things over, ponder what we know and have read, and try to find a couple pointspreads that look off. As I learn every time I try to bet against the spreads, those are hard to find. Vegas generally does an amazing job figuring out how these games are going to go.

Nonetheless, here are our thoughts on the best bets for the opening week of the 2012 NFL football season. Take these for what they’re worth – virtually nothing. (more…)

NFL Best Bets 2011 Season, Super Bowl

by | Feb 2, 2012 | NFL Gambling

I’ve been on a brutal stretch dating back to the last week of the regular season. I managed to get just one of four bets correct on Championship weekend and that dropped my postseason picks to 4-8 overall.

So perhaps it’s for the best that the season ends Sunday.

The New York Giants and New England engage in their rematch. Tell you what — I thought I had a pretty good read on their first Super Bowl matchup. I picked the Patriots to win the AFC and the Super Bowl during a trek to Vegas before training camp started.

And it looked pretty good until David Tyree pinned that miracle catch to his helmet, ultimately helping cost me a nice payday.

I was pretty confident in the Patriots that season. I feel less strongly about either of the participants this year. The Giants are playing the more well-rounded football right now. But the Patriots offense can come together and outscore anyone when they are on. (more…)

NFL Best Bets 2011 season, Championship Sunday

by | Jan 20, 2012 | NFL Gambling

The games have gotten tougher and tougher to pick over the last few weeks and that just continues getting truer this weekend. And it’s not like I’m coming in on a hot streak either. I improved on my 1-3 wild card weekend picks, hitting two of the four predictions I made during the divisional round. But 3-5 isn’t going to win you anything in Las Vegas except maybe a couple broken legs.

Maybe I can turn it around this weekend. (more…)

NFL Best Bets 2011 season, Divisional Playoffs

by | Jan 12, 2012 | NFL Gambling

The largest over/under in the history of the NFL playoffs wasn’t too high for Detroit and New Orleans, as predicted by yours truly.

Unfortunately it was the only bet I got right last week. I thought the underdogs would fare better in the Cincinnati v Houston and Atlanta v New York Giants games. And I sure as hell didn’t see Denver knocking off Pittsburgh.

So it goes, I guess. The beauty of it in the imaginary world of blogging is regardless of how much mythical money I lost on last week’s games, I can always try again this week. (more…)

NFL Best Bets 2011 season, Wild Card weekend

by | Jan 5, 2012 | 2011 season, NFL Gambling, NFL Random Thoughts

I opened last week’s betting post by saying week 17 was going to provide a difficult slate of games to predict, given the varying motivations teams had entering their games. That was the only guess I got right. After a sizzling hot six week stretch put me five games over .500, I ended the season with a 0-4 thud, dropping my record to 34-33-1. That isn’t going to satisfy bettors anywhere, though I can’t complain too much given how poorly I started out. I at least maintained enough of a bankroll to have something left for the playoffs.

My brother, on the other hand, needed a 3-1 week 17 to improve to 31-37 for the year, a mark so low he ran out of money for the rest of the season. So, while he participated in our straight-up picks on who would win the games, he’s sitting out the point spread segment for the playoffs. Here are my best guesses for what this week’s wild card weekend will have in store.
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NFL Best Bets: 2011 season, week 17

by | Dec 29, 2011 | 2011 season, NFL Gambling

I don’t know that I would ever want to be in Las Vegas trying to make a bunch of money betting on games played in week 17. Motivation comes into play so much in these games and it’s so hard to say ahead of time who is going to be playing hard, who is going to be resting guys for the playoffs and who is going to play as though all they want to do is pack up their stuff and go home.

It’s even harder picking games several days out, because games that look like they could potentially be important at 3 p.m. central time could be rendered meaningless by the results of games kicking off at noon.

Nonetheless, we’ve cobbled together some picks we think make sense. With last week’s results (Andy 2-2, Tony 0-4), Tony clinched a losing record (28-36 heading into week 17) for the season while I clinched a winning record (34-29-1). Neither one of us will be scaring off the actual betting experts, but what the heck. Here goes: (more…)