NFL Best Bets: Week 4, 2011

by | Sep 28, 2011 | 2011 season, NFL Gambling

If we should have been in Vegas for Week 2 of the NFL season, Week 3 is the clear cut example of why our wives don’t like it when we talk about flying out multiple times during the season (for finding other ways to bet large sums of money on football).

I matched my perfect Week 2 with a perfect 0-4 record in Week 3, while Andy followed up his 3-1 week with a 1-3 week.  If I followed my patterns in Vegas, this is when I would get sick of betting football, and start betting stupid parlays that had no reason to cover (and yet often do), and making weird prop bets—like betting on the number of times that the infamous Tuck Rule play is referenced during the Patriots/Raiders game on Sunday (currently the over/under is at 17.5 including the CBS pregame show, and I’m big on the over).

This week’s best bets (to avoid?):

Andy:

Carolina (+6.5) at Chicago – Carolina has shown no fear of going on the road. Cam Newton has been a revelation for the Panthers. Meanwhile the Bears continue to show no interest in running the ball. If the Panthers can turn the Bears one dimensional on offense I could even see betting the moneyline, which is running at +240 for Carolina early in the week.

Philadelphia (-7) vs San Francisco – San Francisco has won two games, but they’ve been against two of the crappier teams in the league. The “Dream Team” has been exposed a bit early in the season, but the Eagles are at home. If the 49ers can keep the game close they’ll be able to use Frank Gore to attack the Eagles’ weak run defense. But if Philadelphia can get an early lead they’ll force the game into Alex Smith’s hands and that won’t work.

Atlanta (-4.5) at Seattle – I’ve lost many times betting on good teams going across the country to play bad teams. For some reason lengthy travel often seems to play a role in the results of games. However, the Seahawks are terrible, ranking highly in the Luck-o-Meter race right now despite winning last weekend against Arizona. Atlanta is a much better team than Seattle. More importantly they’re desperate, having started 1-2 with a division loss to Tampa. They right the ship this week against the Seahawks.

Upset of the week: Pittsburgh (+4, +180 moneyline) at Houston – The Texans are favored over the Steelers? Really? Actually Houston probably deserves to be a four point favorite. But the Steelers are still a blue collar, hard core football team that can win on any given Sunday. Houston’s defense is improving and the offense is stellar. A win in this game would show they are a real contender in the AFC. A loss wouldn’t be devastating but it would show that the changing of the guard is not going to happen without a fight.

Tony:

New Orleans (-7) at Jacksonville – Barring another monsoon game for the Jaguars, I don’t think there’s any way that Jacksonville can keep up with the Saints. They can maybe keep it close if they can control the ground game with Maurice Jones-Drew, but even if it’s close, I think the Saints can tack one on late to beat the spread.

San Francisco (+7) at Philadelphia – I almost picked the 49ers to win, with Vick out—the whole west coast team traveling east was the only thing holding me back.  Assuming Vick doesn’t play, I don’t think Mike Kafka (or Vince Young) could provide the same level of offense.  The Eagles defense probably wins them the game, but their offense keeps it close.

NY Jets @ Baltimore: Over 40 – Both teams are better known for their defenses, but both offenses have actually looked solid so far this season (the Jets have put up 27.7 points per game, the Ravens 28.3).  While the Ravens have the best scoring defense in the league (40 points allowed), the line seems a bit low at 40 points—even if the Jets split the difference between their average and the Ravens allowed they put up 20 points—leaving the Ravens just needing 21 in their win to cover the over.

Upset of the Week: Carolina (+6.5/+250 money line) @ Chicago – This one might be an ultimate reach, but I still think that the Bears are vastly overrated, and I think their last two games show that—Mike Martz continues to completely abandon the running game, on a team that needs some balance—and that puts more pressure on a defense that carries the team, but still isn’t as good as their reputation. The Panthers, meanwhile, have completely surprised me—Cam Newton looked good in his keeping his first two starts close, and finally found a way to win last week, despite less than ideal conditions.  The Bears are better than the Jaguars—but unless it suddenly turns into monsoon season in Chicago, I think Newton can put up numbers against the Bears defensive backs, and at +250 on the money line, I’ll take the chance that they can win outright.

Betting Football: Week 2 Picks

by | Sep 16, 2011 | 2011 season, NFL Gambling

Well, our first week of picking football bets went almost as good as our straight up picks–we both hit two, and missed two.  Do I get bonus points for hitting on the “Upset” of the week? Spreads again coming from Vegas Locks.

Andy

New York Jets (-9.5) vs Jacksonville – I’m going to guess that Luke McCown isn’t going to go to New York and shock the world. The Jaguars will struggle to run the ball this week against the Jets and McCown doesn’t have the weapons or the talent to exploit Revis-Island. This line has actually gotten closer since the beginning of the week. All the easier to take New York. This game will be a blowout.

Pittsburgh (-14) vs Seattle – Pittsburgh got destroyed last week but this is a proud team playing at home. Seattle got destroyed last week and it is a sign of things to come. The Seahawks lack skill at the skill positions and mental toughness at the quarterback spot. The Steelers will get ahead early and pound away at Seattle, easily avenging their week one loss and covering the abnormally large spread possibly by the end of the first quarter. Tarvaris Jackson might regret signing with the Seahawks by halftime.

Houston (-3) at Miami – The Dolphins were supposed to have a solid defense, but they got shredded by Tom Brady to the tune of 517 yards passing. Matt Schaub won’t duplicate that number but he will have his way with Miami in a comfortable win on the road.

Upset of the week:

Indianapolis (+2.5 spread/+110 money line) vs Cleveland – I wasn’t really going to consider this enough of an upset to use it as my pick, but then I saw the Colts are +110 on the money line. Bettors have really lost faith in Indianapolis, who admittedly looked terrible against Houston last week. But the Colts are not devoid of talent. Kerry Collins is an old-but-serviceable quarterback with plenty of offensive weapons on whom he can rely. As he gets more comfortable with the system, the team will at lest be more competitive. Cleveland, meanwhile, has not done enough to this point (losing at home to Cincinnati = same old Browns) to warrant being a road favorite over a team like Indianapolis. I’m a little bit worried that the Browns might be able to pound the Colts into submission with Peyton Hillis. And if they do, then I might start to believe the folks putting Indy in the Andrew Luck sweepstakes. But until then, I’ll rely on Cleveland’s long, illustrious history of finding ways to lose and I’ll bet the Colts, not just to cover the 2.5 but to win straight up.

Tony

New England (-7) vs. San Diego – San Diego didn’t look great against the Vikings, who themselves didn’t look that good. A lot of Charger fans want to claim that the team is finally shedding it’s slow start ways–I disagree, I think they just met an opponent last week that is off to an even slower start. This week, they have to travel east (a move that tends to kill west coast teams), and they have to face a team that last week put up almost 500 more yards than the Vikings put up against them.

New Orleans (-6.5) vs. Chicago – Chicago’s win against the Falcons was impressive, but let’s not give them too much credit–the defense still can’t be counted on to win every week for them. While Cutler put up 300+ yards, the running game was still not impressive, and he also turned the ball over. Meanwhile, the Saints offense was firing on all cylinders against the Packers–in the end, the defense couldn’t keep them in the game, but the Packers offense is a few steps above the Bears.

Green Bay @ Carolina: Over 46.5 points

I was tempted to pick Green Bay (-10), but Cam Newton’s week 1 performance impressed me. Not to the point where I think they’ll win, but at least to the point where it might be closer than most would think. Especially at Carolina, and especially if the Panthers can get DeAngelo Williams and/or Jonathan Stewart involved.

Upset of the week:

Tampa Bay (+3 spread/+130 money line) @ Minnesota – As much as it pains me to bet against my Vikings, I saw nothing in their week 1 performance that makes me think they should be favored in this game–even if it is the phantom 3 points for being at home advantage. I wouldn’t mind getting this one wrong, but even if I was in Vegas, I’d probably be putting something on the Bucs to win outright. Worst case, I’d at least get something out of watching another frustrating game for the purple.

Season ends with Super game

by | Feb 5, 2011 | 2010 season, NFL Gambling, NFL Picks, Super Bowl

I have a confession to make. I’m not really a fan of the Super Bowl.

It’s partially because as I was growing up many of the games failed to meet expectations. As entertaining as some of the advertisements can be, in my eyes they’ve never made up for sitting through a 56-10 drubbing in what is supposed to be the NFL’s showcase game.

It’s also partially because my team has never managed to win the big one, so yes, I admit to some sour grapes.

But primarily it’s because it means the season is ending and we’ll be subjected to several months before the next meaningful matchup. This year’s big game in Dallas is even more bittersweet, as the out-of-touch honchos of the National Football League and its Players Union have shown little urgency in their efforts to solve the collective bargaining issues — meaning there’s a shot this could be the last game in a long, long time.

So, while I like the marathon of the season and the chase of the playoffs more than the Super Bowl itself, at least this years version should provide an interesting game.

Pittsburgh vs Green Bay (-2.5) at Dallas: Over/Under 45.5

Both of these NFL heavyweights have been around forever. The Steelers have six Vince Lombardi trophies. The Packers have three. The Packers have Aaron Rodgers, who can complete finish the masterful job he has done replacing legendary Brett Favre with a win Sunday. The Steelers have Ben Roethlisberger, who can take another step in rehabilitating his image by winning a third Super Bowl ring. (more…)

Sunday to be Super for Colts or Saints?

by | Feb 7, 2010 | NFL Gambling, NFL Picks

I don’t know if it means I know something or if it was a case of the blind squirrel finding a nut, but I nailed the conference championships, picking the Colts to beat the Jets both straight up and against the spread while guessing the Vikings would beat the spread but lose a close one to New Orleans. That puts me at 7-3 straight up and 6-4 against Vegas lines for the playoffs. And so on to the Super Bowl.

Straight up: Colts
Spread: Saints +5

The Super Bowl presents another intriguing match-up between two high-powered offenses going against defenses that have been vulnerable at times this season.

Among the most interesting aspects of this tilt will be the quarterback duel between Peyton Manning and Drew Brees – a match-up that brings back memories of Staubach vs Bradshaw or Montana vs Elway. With Dwight Freeney injured and either out or playing at less than full strength and the Saints sporting a very good offensive line, I expect Brees to have plenty of time to throw. The same should be true of Manning, who is rarely sacked.

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