Divisional playoff predictions

by | Jan 10, 2009 | NFL Gambling, NFL Picks

Hmm. Getting going a little late this afternoon, but so it goes. Here are my picks – both straight up and against the spread (Last week’s record 2-2):

Baltimore at Tennessee: Baltimore
I like the way the Ravens were playing at the end of the season. The defense should largely bottle up the Titans’ potent run game. It’ll be a low scoring game decided in the fourth quarter.

Arizona at Carolina: Carolina
Arizona mysteriously discovered a run game last week and it helped surprise and beat Atlanta. That won’t happen this week. The Panthers will be the dominant ground team and they’ll pull away in the second half to win handily.

Philadelphia at New York Giants: Giants
I think this is the most compelling game of the weekend. Both teams are playing well. In another low-scoring battle, I expect home field will win out in the end. The Giants’ three-headed run attack will wear down the Eagles just enough to pull it out.

San Diego at Pittsburgh: Pittsburgh
San Diego has been on a roll of late, but they’re heading into the cold weather minus a full-strength LaDainian Tomlinson. Not that Sproles isn’t a solid replacement, but the Steelers defense is too good for the Chargers to win at less than full strength.

Playoff predictions

by | Jan 3, 2009 | NFL Gambling

So I managed to close the season with a 3-1 mark, bringing my Best Bets total to 20-18. With the vig it’s probably not enough to break even in Vegas, but it’s better than going 1-3.

So, I’m going to make playoff picks too. Why not. (All of these picks are both straight up and against the spread)

1. Atlanta at Arizona: Pick ’em
Arizona has not been playing well the last month. Their last five wins have been against Seattle twice, St. Louis twice and San Francisco. Atlanta has the strongest running game in the NFL. And Matt Ryan, rookie of the year quarterback, has been strong at home and on the road. Winner: Atlanta

2. Indianapolis at San Diego (+1):
Both teams have quarterbacks playing extremely well and both teams went on winning streaks to get where they are. Indy won in San Diego earlier in the season and while the Chargers are constructed to beat the Colts, they really miss Shawne Merriman against a quarterback like Peyton Manning. Plus LaDainian Tomlinson enters the playoffs hurting. Winner: Indianapolis

3. Baltimore at Miami (+3.5)
Miami is the comeback story of the season. But the run ends here. The Dolphins aren’t going to be able to run against Baltimore and they can’t win on passing alone. It’ll be a low-scoring game but the Ravens will use their three-headed running attack to pull away in the  end. Winner: Baltimore

4. Philadelphia at Minnesota (+3)
The Eagles play in one of the two toughest divisions in football and the Vikings don’t. The Eagles blitzing pass rush will either confuse Tarvaris Jackson or pummel Gus Frerotte. With Pat Williams looking less and less likely to play for Minnesota Philadelphia might even get the run game going. The Eagles will make it a clean sweep for the road teams. Winner: Philadelphia

Best Bets – Week 17

by | Dec 28, 2008 | NFL Gambling

Weeks 15 and 16 weren’t kind. I’ve produced back to back 1-3 records on these so-called Best Bets leaving me at 17-17 since I started making them. As the old saying goes, ties are like kissing your sister – and in Vegas, a tie isn’t really even a tie, when you factor in the vig.

So it’s going to take a perfect week to make this hypothetical endeavor a break-even deal. And here goes.

Last week1-3
Overall: 17-17

1. Denver at San Diego: Over 50.5
The Chargers will be motivated to avenge their questionable loss to Denver in week two, during which 77 points were scored. And both teams have the playoffs on the line. But neither team has a defense that will be able to stop the other. The difference will come down to San Diego having LaDainian Tomlinson and Darren Sproles while Denver is down to its 12th string back. Cutler and Rivers put on an aerial show that nearly covers the over/under by halftime.

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Best bets – week 16

by | Dec 21, 2008 | NFL Gambling

No time for a review of last week’s crummy bets, but here goes for this week:

1. Detroit (+7) vs New Orleans:
Detroit sees this as the last game they can win and the Saints have not been good on the road. Lions lose in a shootout.

2. Carolina (+3.5) at New York Giants
Carolina is simply playing better than the Giants right now. They earn the first seed with this win.

3. New York Jets (-3.5) at Seattle
Seahawks have packed it in and the Jets are fighting for the division. Too much on the line for the Jets to screw this up.

4. Miami (-3.5) at Kansas City
I’m a little worried about the weather, but see above Jets over Seattle pick – playoff motivation carries them through.

Week 15 best bets

by | Dec 13, 2008 | NFL Gambling

Week 15 presents a tough slate of games as Tony and I attempt to stay on a roll with our game picks.

I hit three of four Best Bets last week as well, really making me wish I had one more crack at Vegas during the football season.

But alas, it appears as though pride at a job done decently will have to suffice until sometime next fall.

Best Bets

Last week: 3-1
Overall: 15-11

1. Tennessee (-2.5) at Houston
I was shocked when this line opened up between 3 and 3.5 points. I figured it would correct itself toward a higher number for the Titans to cover throughout the week. But it’s actually gone in the opposite direction, by some accounts. Our friends at vegas.com still list the game at Tennessee -3, which I think is really low – but the local newspaper this morning ran it at 2.5. Houston is playing better, no question. And the Texans have won three straight. But those games were against Cleveland, Jacksonville and Green Bay, three teams staggering to the finish line. Their three losses before that were to potential playoff teams in Indianapolis, Minnesota and Baltimore and the Texans gave up 102 points in those contests. The Titans are motivated as they still need to win to lock up home-field advantage for the playoffs and they finish with two tough games against Pittsburgh and Indianapolis, so they won’t take this game lightly.
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Best Bets yet again

by | Dec 4, 2008 | NFL Gambling

Last week: 3-1
Overall: 12-10

Except for misjudging how much the Eagles had tanked the season last week went pretty well. Hoping for a duplicate performance this week. Here goes:

1. New England (-4.5) at Seattle
Twice before this week the New England Patriots have gotten crushed and twice New England has rebounded the next week with a convincing win. In week three, Miami took the Pats down a peg, 38-13, at home. The Pats beat the Niners by nine the following week in San Francisco. The next week San Diego played its best game of the season, knocking off the Pats by 20. Belichick’s crew rebounded with a 41-7 win over Denver. Pittsburgh crushed New England on its home turf last week 33-10. New England follows that trend with a double-digit thumping of a Seattle team that is beaten up and out of the race. They easily cover the 4.5 spread and, while I’m not betting on it here, they might take out the 43 point over/under by themselves as well.
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