by Andy | Nov 28, 2008 | NFL Gambling, NFL Random Thoughts
Earlier this season there was briefly discussion about the NFL considering mandatory late starting times for games played on the East coast by West coast teams. The argument was that a 1 p.m. eastern start mentally was a 10 a.m. start for those West coast teams, teams that have struggled to be competitive that far from home the past few years.
Zoneblitz.com did a post on the subject. And it got some play on the radio and in the media. I’m starting to think there’s more to the struggles than jet lag, however, as the Philadelphia Eagles crushed the Arizona Cardinals Thanksgiving night.
The Eagles win brings the East coast team’s record to 14-0 against West coasters this season – this leads me to believe the biggest issue is that most of the West coast teams just aren’t any good.
These are the records:
Arizona 0-4
Seattle 0-4
San Diego 0-3
Oakland 0-3
San Francisco 0-1
Arizona was 7-4 heading into the game and it’d take a shocking collapse coupled with a stunning turnaround by a division rival for them to not win the NFC West division. And they are improving. But if that’s the best of the West and they’re going 0-4 on the East – and getting crushed by an Eagles team that was reeling?
Go ahead and consider the mandatory late-start times, NFL. But the bigger picture here is that anyone looking to win some money in Vegas should take the mortgage and bet it on the East coast team as soon as Arizona has to go on the road in the playoffs.
It’s as close to a sure bet as you’ll find.
by Andy | Nov 26, 2008 | NFL Gambling
Well, the hot streak came to a crashing halt with a 1-3 week. That takes me to 9-9 since I started this thing. So it goes. It’s Thanksgiving week. It’s my favorite holiday, which is anchored by my favorite sport. I’ll catch the first half of the first game before we have a big, turkey dinner. Then I’ll curl up on the floor in the basement in front of the television, watch the end of the Titans’ whoopin’ of Detroit. The Cowboys will kickoff against Seattle. I’ll watch the first five minutes and then fall asleep through the end of the first half.
It’s a beautiful thing – and it could only be matched by a four-for-four week on my Thanksgiving Weekend Best Bets (again, using the Caesar’s-Hilton line at Vegas.com).
1. Tennessee (-11) at Detroit – Thanksgiving Day
Inevitably, one of the commentators will talk about what a great fight the Detroit Lions always put up on Thanksgiving, no matter how good or bad the team is. Don’t get fooled. It’s crap. The Lions have lost six of the last seven it has played on my favorite holiday, including last year’s shellacking at the hands of Green Bay – when, believe it or not, the Lions actually entered the game with a 6-4 record. In fact, in the 20 games since the Lions started 6-2 last year, they are 1-19. And margins of defeat during those six Thanksgiving losses during the 2000s have been 11, 17, 20, 32, 8 and 2. This is a historically bad team that has quit written all over it. And they are playing a Tennessee Titans team rededicated to the run (which the Lions can’t stop) angry from coming off of its first loss of the season. Tennessee should cover the 11 points in the first five or 10 minutes and make it a cakewalk from there. (more…)
by Andy | Nov 22, 2008 | NFL Gambling
Last week’s three for three performance brought me back over .500 for the Best Bets. I’m at 8-6 now, having hit six of my last seven bets. Should’a been in Vegas.
It’d be great to keep the hot streak going. Using the Caesar’s-Hilton line at Vegas.com here are the picks for this week:
1. Kansas City (+3) vs Buffalo
Buffalo followed up a promising start with a four game losing streak. They lost a tough, last second game on Monday night. And they go on the road, to a tough place to play, minus safety Donte Whitner and cornerback Jabari Greer. That’s bad timing for heading to Kansas City where the Chiefs’ offense is starting to click with Tyler Thigpen throwing to the trifecta of Tony Gonzalez, Dwayne Bowe and Mark Bradley. The Chiefs haven’t won many games but I actually like them straight up in this contest.
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by Andy | Nov 17, 2008 | NFL Gambling
The first item in Peter King’s column this morning at SportsIllustrated.com indicated that the officiating call nullifying a touchdown on the last play of the Pittsburgh-San Diego game created a $66 million swing for gamblers.
Apparently $100 million was wagered on this game, $66 million of it on the Steelers, who were favored by four points, give or take depending on the venue. Thus, the final play was the difference between the Steelers covering the spread or not.
Conspiracy theorists apparently have concocted a brilliant story about the league getting a call from someone in Vegas discussing all the money that would be lost if the Steelers were allowed to keep the touchdown and then relaying that information on to game official Scott Green.
Conspiracy theorists, get over it.
NFL officiating has been, at times, abysmal this season. Quarterbacks might as well be wearing dresses for all the late hit calls and none of the zebras seem to be able to figure out what a fumble is anymore, which has screwed San Diego more than once.
But this was a remarkably fluky play at the end of a weird game that didn’t make a difference in the outcome of the game. Both teams, especially the losing Chargers, wanted to get off the field and Green was probably rushed a little bit into making the call, which, though wrong, was that LaDainian Tomlinson’s lateral went forward, thus ending the play.
It was weird, but I am highly, highly skeptical that there was anything crooked about it. It was too confusing a situation that happened way too fast for anything untoward to take place. So, gamblers, get over it. Sure, I like to see Vegas get beaten as often as possible. But football is a quirky game and weird things are going to happen sometimes.
if you can’t afford to lose it, don’t bet it in the first place.
by Andy | Nov 13, 2008 | NFL Gambling
I’m back, baby!!!
Okay, that’d be a stupid thing to think when it comes to gambling. And it probably does nothing more than tempt fate. But I did hit three of four Best Bets during week 10, just a week after flubbing all four of my picks.
Game by game, the Giants hung on to beat the Eagles straight up. The Vikings held on to beat Green Bay by a point but the Packers covered the spread. And Baltimore slobberknocked Houston, so not only did I hit my first three picks but they were all underdogs – a valuable thing when betting for real in Vegas.
I did stumble on picking the over in the San Diego v Kansas City tilt. But my 3-1 mark for the week brings me to 5-6 for the three weeks I’ve been doing these picks – not bad … if you take out the 0-4 second week. Uggh.
So, anyway, here we go with Best Bets Version 3:
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by Andy | Nov 9, 2008 | NFL Gambling
Well, last week anyone reading this page would have been better off betting against me – they’d probably be on their way to an early retirement, in fact.
One lesson I think I should learn is to just stay away from betting on Cincinnati games. You just never know what is going to happen when the Orange and Black hit the field this season.
In fact, bad teams in general have tended to screw me up this season, so perhaps staying away from Oakland, St. Louis and Detroit would be wise as well…
Nah.
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