by Tony | Jan 13, 2018 | 2017 Season, I Said, He Said, NFL Picks, NFL Playoffs
Our NFC Divisional Predictions.
Let’s jump right into things.
Tennessee Titans at New England Patriots – Saturday, January 13th, 2018 – 7:15PM kickoff
Tony: On the AFC side of the equation, it’s two games that most people think are forgone conclusions. On Saturday evening, possibly the biggest laugher of the weekend will happen, when the Patriots take on the Titans, who came back to upset the Chiefs. The only way the Titans have a chance in this one is if the discord in New England isn’t only real, it’s worse than anyone imagined. That, or a freak injury to Tom Brady that even TB12 can’t overcome.
Andy: Yeah, put me on the same side of the people who say this won’t be much of a game. It’s basically a tuneup for the Patriots. They’re getting better. But they’re a ways off. Brady is the main reason. A little stat, courtesy of NFL Communications: This game pits the biggest age difference between starting QBs in playoff history, beating out the 1991 match-up between Kansas City’s Steve DeBerg and the Raiders’ Todd Marinovich. There are 16 years and a few months between Brady and Marcus Mariota. In the previous four highest age-difference games, the elder has beaten the youth each time. Put that in your pipe and smoke it.
Tony: First off, Todd Marinovich played in a playoff game? Secondly…I’m guessing that may have made its way to his pipe. And lastly…have I mentioned lately that the Patriots really need to bring the old Pat Patriot helmets & red jerseys back from mothballs?
Anyway…I suspect the only way the game stays at all interesting is if the Pats come out cold from the week off, and the Titans manage to put together a ground game to hold on to the ball. For at least 43 minutes of game time. I say Patriots 34, Titans 13.
Andy: I think you’re giving Tennessee too much credit. I don’t think it will be that close. The Titans started last week looking like they were more than happy to call it a season and say “we made the playoffs, isn’t this a great building point.” The only reason they stayed in that game was abysmal coaching by Kansas City, which, stunningly, forgot to involve Kareem Hunt in the game. That won’t happen with Bill Belichick. If running the ball is what it takes, he’ll do it. And he may take this as an opportunity to show the national media how unified his troops are (even though I do think there is a solid chance he retires at season’s end). This has a chance to be one of the most lopsided playoff games in history. Patriots 47, Titans 9.
Jacksonville Jaguars at Pittsburgh Steelers – Sunday, January 14th, 2018 – 12:05PM kickoff
Andy: The other AFC game is also seen by many as a mismatch. I’m not so sure. Since Ryan Shazier got hurt, Pittsburgh has been vulnerable to the run. And the Jaguars do have Leonard Fournette, who repeatedly gashed the Steelers earlier this season. I’m not suggesting Jacksonville wins in a blowout — far from it. I suspect the game plan will call for ball control and minimizing Blake Bortles rather than for scoring 50. But I do think the Jags make a contest out of this game.
Tony: The Jags also have that swarming defense, which could make life miserable for the Killer B’s–Ben, Bell and Brown. With Antonio Brown coming back from a serious calf injury (and battling some sort of illness at practice on Friday), the last thing they need is to face a secondary combination that ranks among the best in the league. Throw in an offensive line that didn’t grade out well as a unit (at least on ProFootballFocus.com), and maybe the Jaguars do have a fighting chance.
Tony: Of course, the Steelers do have the advantage of home field–not to mention plenty of recent playoff experience to fall back on, versus the Jaguars and their one ugly game against the Bills last week. And something tells me that the Steelers would like some payback from that embarrasing 30-9 beat down the Jaguars laid down in Pittsburgh in Week 5.
Andy: At a minimum, the Steelers won’t take the Jaguars lightly after that big week five loss. I do think Pittsburgh wins. They have playoff experience and that does mean something. But this game will be tighter than expected. I’ll go Steelers 20, Jaguars 16.
Tony: The weather in Pittsburgh is supposed to be plenty cold as well–not ideal conditions for Jacksonville. I expect it will be closer in score than it may actually feel, with Blake Bortles possibly adding some of his patented garbage time points. Pittsburgh 23, Jaguars 17.
by Tony | Jan 13, 2018 | 2017 Season, I Said, He Said, NFL Picks, NFL Playoffs
Between our AFC Wildcard and NFC Wildcard predictions last week, Andy and I both managed to split the games 2-2–although his stabs in the dark for scores were slightly better than mine.
We’re back again this week to preview the Divisional match ups, starting with the NFC:
Atlanta Falcons at Philadelphia Eagles – Saturday, January 13th, 2018 – 3:35PM kickoff
Andy: About six weeks ago I would not have expected this game to happen. The Eagles were rolling everyone and the Falcons were sleepwalking through the first two-thirds of the season. But then Carson Wentz got hurt and Atlanta went 5-2 to finish the season, with both losses coming to the teams playing in the NFC’s Sunday game. I have some nagging doubts that I’m being rope-a-doped into my prediction for this one — that all of a sudden the Nick Foles of 2013 with the 27-to-2 TD-to-INT ratio is going to show up and take Phillly on a run. But that’s too much of a story book story line to really come true. Isn’t it?
Tony: The bigger of the surprises to me six weeks ago may have been that the Falcons were in the playoffs at all–this is a team that has seemingly struggled all year to play good football, much less consistent football–yet they pretty much whipped the Rams last weekend. And did so with the offense still not really firing on all cylinders–Devonta Freeman only had 66 yards and a touchdown, and Julio Jones 94 yards and a touchdown. If you’d told me those stats pregame, I would have pegged it as a field goal type game, not a Falcons double up.
Andy: I think we’re both saying the same thing, at least about the Falcons. This team appeared to be on auto-pilot most of the season. On the Philadelphia side, you almost have to feel sorry for their fans … almost … well, okay, not quite. Not really at all. But they were getting excited about a team that appeared dominant when Carson Wentz was healthy, only to see Foles come and, basically, sleepwalk through the last few games. I do think Atlanta roles in this one. That’s for all the reasons we’ve already mentioned and, also, because “Nature Boy” Ric Flair says the Eagles are going to lose.
Tony: Well, if Nature Boy says it, it must be true. I’m not as convinced as many that that the Falcons will walk all over the Eagles, just because Carson Wentz isn’t there. The Falcons are an indoor team, from the south–they haven’t had a late season, outdoors, colder weather game since 2014 (a Monday night loss in Green Bay in early December, 33 degrees at game time), and hasn’t won in those conditions since an overtime win in Seattle in 2010 (a game that was actually 45 degrees). Weather for Saturday? The temps are supposed to drop again, after a warm up this week, which could make for interesting playing conditions.
Andy: I don’t think it’s going to be an easy win for the Falcons. The Eagles defense is pretty solid. And Atlanta still isn’t playing anywhere near as fluidly on offense as they did last season under the watchful eye of Kyle Shanahan. My problem with Philadelphia is that since Wentz went down, the offense has been just plain bad. The Falcons’ up-and-coming defense will see to making sure that continues. Atlanta 20 Philadelphia 10.
Tony: Whoever wins, I don’t think it will be a double digit margin of victory. Two solid defenses, less than ideal weather conditions, and two offenses that have not been in stride. I’ll go out seemingly on a limb and call it Philadelphia 20, Atlanta 17. With the weather, I’ll give the Eagles ability to grind it out on the ground the key to the victory.
Andy: In the immortal words of our president, “Wrong. Wrong.”
New Orleans Saints at Minnesota Vikings – Sunday, January 14th, 2018 – 3:40PM kickoff
Tony: In the other NFC game, the Minnesota Vikings seek revenge for the 2009 NFC Championship Game, aka Bountygate. Speaking of which, I heard a funny thing last week during the Saints victory over the Panthers–apparently Drew Brees was hit a little late on a play, and the crowd sounded none to pleased. How ironic.
This time around, the Vikings host the Saints, and instead of featuring a geriatric Quarterback they lulled out his 4th retirement, they feature a record setting defense that is ranked top in the league for yardage allowed and points allowed–which may make for a long afternoon for Drew Brees.
Andy: I liked a post I read this week about how Vikings fans are sort of walking around like abused puppies this week, hoping for the win but protecting themselves from another brutal loss. The nice thing for them heading into a game against New Orleans this time, besides home field, is they are the ones with the top-notch defense. The Saints have improved immensely throughout the season, but Minnesota’s among the league’s elite. And Mike Zimmer has put the kibosh on some of the league’s best QBs the last two seasons. Drew Brees won’t see much he hasn’t seen before, but he’s still going to face a brutal pass rush, a shutdown corner and some of the best schemes around. The question becomes can Case Keenum keep it up? Can he put up the offense necessary to complement the Vikings’ best defense since the mid-1970s. I cautiously think he can.
Tony: So you’re asking if Case Keenum and his big balls can keep it up? I’m not sure if it’s that I’m hanging out in new places online this year, or what, but I’ve actually felt an electricity around the Vikings that I don’t remember from 2009 or 1998–maybe I’m just paying more attention to it, but I’ve heard more people in the last two weeks seemingly talk about it being the Vikings destiny to make the Super Bowl that you wonder if they realize the team has a couple of tough games to win first. As you mentioned, the defense isn’t really the question, for the Vikings–it’s the offense. Not just Keenum, either–will the line hold up, is Kyle Rudolph finally healthy again, and can Stefon Diggs and Adam Thielen get back to making the big plays, which seemed to disappear the last few weeks of the season. On the positive side, while the Saints defense improved this year, they are a bit beat up.
Andy: Yeah, one of the things that concerns me about the Vikings is they haven’t really been tested in a difficult game since they lost to Carolina. The last three games were pretty much against teams who had shut down. The Saints were in playoff mode right up until the last game. That could either help New Orleans stay sharp or they could suffer from a bit of a burnout effect. I think anyone who is talking about the Vikings as a team of destiny is begging to be let down … or they weren’t alive for 75, 87, 98, 09, etc. That said, I do think Minnesota does just enough to squeek by in the most interesting game of the best weekend of the season. In spite of Kai Forbath, Vikings 20, Saints 17.
Tony: Yeah, I’m by no means thinking destiny. In fact, in true Viking fan form, I’ll pick the Saints–you just brought up possibly the biggest achilles heal on the Vikings team, Kai Forbath. Saints 21, Vikings 20. I heard Blair Walsh might be looking for a job this spring…
by John Tuvey | Jan 11, 2018 | 2017 Season, Daily Fantasy, Fantasy Football, NFL Playoffs
Many football-watchers consider the Divisional playoff round to be the best weekend of the entire NFL season. Tough to argue, especially when you’re pitting the four best teams in the league against the four hottest teams, the ones who clicked at the right time and survived the Wild Card round. Know what makes the weekend even better? Winning your fantasy football league, and/or taking home a little extra coin with a successful DFS lineup.
Photo by Keith Allison
With that in mind, here are a few intriguing value plays you can sprinkle into your DFS lineup to help make room for the high-priced big guns.
Case Keenum, QB, MIN vs. Saints
The narrative on this one is the Vikings will grind out a win on the ground at home, riding their elite defense into the conference championship. But don’t be fooled by Keenum’s “just enough” numbers as Minnesota wrapped up the season. Keenum tossed multiple touchdowns in each of his three regular-season matchups with the NFC South—and he wasn’t even under center when Sam Bradford took the Saints for 346 and three in the season opener. The Vikings may grind, but with weapons like Adam Thielen, Stefon Diggs and Kyle Rudolph at his disposal Keenum will have every opportunity to put up helpful numbers. Still, only Draft Kings prices Keenum in the top half of Divisional round quarterbacks, meaning he’ll deliver those numbers at a discount of between $900 and $2900.
Leonard Fournette, RB, JAC @ Steelers
In the Steelers’ six games prior to Ryan Shazier’s injury no team rushed for more than 70 yards, backs averaged 3.3 yards per carry, and Pittsburgh surrendered only one RB rushing score. In the three games immediately after Shazier went down the Steelers served up 100-yard games to Alex Collins and Alfred Blue and allowed five running back rushing scores and 5.7 yards per carry. Fournette gouged the Steelers—with a healthy Shazier—for 28-181-2 earlier in the season; what do you think the Jaguars’ game plan will be in the rematch? There’s an easy 20-plus touches waiting for Fournette, against a defense that has struggled to stop the run in Shazier’s absence—more than enough to make Fournette’s price tag, fourth- or fifth-highest running back of the weekend depending on your DFS venue of choice, not just palatable but downright lineup-friendly.
Jerick McKinnon, RB, MIN vs. Saints
McKinnon and Latavius Murray have tag-teamed to replace dynamic rookie Dalvin Cook, who roasted the Saints for 137 yards from scrimmage in the season opener. And while Murray isn’t a bad value himself, with price tags ranging from $100 less to $500 more than McKinnon, the back affectionately known as “Jet” has a distinct leg up in any format awarding points for receptions. Since Cook went down in Week 4 McKinnon has seen five or more targets in six games, averaging 5.6 receptions and 51.1 yards while scoring twice in those half-dozen contests. Pass-catching backs hit the Saints in a soft spot; they’ve allowed six or more targets to running backs in four straight and six of the last seven games—including Christian McCaffrey’s 6-101-1 in the Wild Card round. The Saints have also surrendered a running back receiving touchdown in three of the last four games. Peg Murray as the goal-line guy and the Thielen/Diggs combo as the focal point of the passing game… but know that McKinnon has ample opportunity to return serious value.
Derrick Henry, RB, TEN @ Patriots
It’s worth mentioning that while Henry is the third-highest priced back on both DraftKings and Fantasy Draft, his $6700 price tag on FanDuel makes him just the ninth-most expensive runner for the weekend. With DeMarco Murray already ruled out, all of Tennessee’s backfield touches will funnel through Henry. Game script may dictate the Titans play catch-up, but at that price Henry is worth the risk—especially when you consider he has more receiving yards (101) in the past two weeks than in the previous 16 combined.
Danny Amendola, WR, NE vs. Titans
With only a one-catch cameo appearance in the past two-plus months it’s almost impossible to trust Chris Hogan with a lineup spot despite a price tag lower than between eight and 12 other wideouts. But you know Tom Brady is going to get his, and Rob Gronkowski can’t handle the entire receiving workload. With Adoree Jackson on Brandin Cooks, where will Tom turn? For a price somewhere between 17th (FanDuel) and 21st (DraftKings) among wideouts, roll the bones on Amendola. His production has been consistent with or without Hogan in the lineup; you know he’ll get you a handful of catches, and at those rock-bottom prices if he finds the end zone it’s all gravy.
Corey Davis, WR, TEN @ Patriots
If, as noted above, game script in the Titans-Patriots tilt forces Marcus Mariota to the air then grabbing Tennessee’s top target makes sense. In the Wild Card round that target was Davis, who splashed with 10 targets way back in Week 1 but was knocked off track by an injury and only lately has worked his way back to the top of the Titans’ receiver rotation. Davis posted a career-best 6-91 in the Week 16 loss to the Rams and paced Tennessee with seven targets (producing 4-35) in Kansas City last week. He’s still looking for his first pro touchdown, but with a price tag that lands him between the 18th and 21st receiver he’s a high-volume opportunity play as you build up your lineup elsewhere.
On FanDuel, however, teammate Eric Decker might actually be the better play. The veteran pass-catcher is $600 cheaper than Davis on that venue and considering he’s out-targeted the rookie 21-18 over the past three weeks and found the end zone last week against Kansas City he might be the more palatable play in that format.
Mohamed Sanu, WR, ATL @ Eagles
This feels like a good week to pay up at the receiver position—the value-priced suggestions above excepted, of course. But Sanu’s lineup-friendly $5800 price tag on FanDuel, 14th among wideouts, puts him squarely in play on that venue. Atlanta’s WR2 has five or more targets in seven straight games, including 19 over the Falcons’ last two must-win weeks; he also topped 70 yards in each of those two tilts. Sanu does most of his work out of the slot, which also bodes well as fellow slot receivers Doug Baldwin (5-84), Cooper Kupp (5-118-1) and Sterling Shepard (11-139-1) put up quality numbers in a similar spot. Sanu’s price tag gets a little less palatable at other venues, but if FanDuel is your site of choice he’s extremely tempting.
Zach Ertz, TE, PHI vs. Falcons
The price-setters are determined to make you pay up for Gronk; he’ll cost you $1300 to $2900 more than any other tight end. The bargain-basement alternative of paying half his price tag for an ancillary part of an offense like Austin Hooper, Jesse James or Marcedes Lewis, is far from appealing. Working the in between are Ertz, Delanie Walker and Kyle Rudolph, all within $1300 of each other on DraftKings and FanDuel; at an $1800 discount from Ertz and Walker, Rudy may be the better value on Fantasy Draft. But let’s stick with Ertz, who saw 23 targets from Nick Foles in his two full games after the Carson Wentz injury. Those targets marked Ertz’s busiest two-game stretch of the season and yielded 15-137-1. The Falcons haven’t allowed a 60-yard tight end since Charles Clay in Week 4, but they also haven’t seen much in the way of talent or volume; when those two factors combine, you get something like Jimmy Graham’s 7-59-1 on 11 targets. Given Ertz’s role as Foles’ favored target he’s a solid investment at a reasonable rate.
by John Tuvey | Jan 8, 2018 | 2017 Season, Daily Fantasy, Fantasy Football, Fantasy Rankings, NFL Playoffs
Entering the Divisional Round of the NFL Playoffs, it comes as no surprise that fantasy-friendly matchups are hard to come by; the adage “defense wins championships” still exists for a reason. Here’s a rundown of this week’s fantasy options as you tweak your playoff fantasy rosters and set your DFS lineups.
QUARTERBACKS
The most fantasy-friendly matchups belong to Marcus Mariota, Tom Brady and Case Keenum; clearly, one of these things is not like the other. Conversely, no team allowed fewer fantasy points to quarterbacks than the Vikings, but I’ll still take Drew Brees getting his in that environment over other the remaining alternatives.
1. Tom Brady, NE
2. Drew Brees, NO
3. Case Keenum, MIN
4. Ben Roethlisberger, PIT
5. Matt Ryan, ATL
6. Marcus Mariota, TEN
7. Nick Foles, PHI
8. Blake Bortles, JAC
RUNNING BACKS
The last time Le’Veon Bell faced Jacksonville he only saw 15 carries–but he also had 10 receptions; you know one way or another he’ll get his. Tougher to say that about the Saints’ dynamic duo of Alvin Kamara and Mark Ingram, as no team allowed fewer fantasy points to running backs than the Vikings (say, haven’t we heard something like that before?). You have to think Derrick Henry will be the weapon Bill Belichick decides to take away in the Titans/Patriots game, but New England may not have the personnel to do so. Unfortunately we saw little evidence that the Eagles would cover for Nick Foles by leaning more heavily on the ground game so it’s tough to project a feature-back workload for Jay Ajayi.
1. Le’Veon Bell, PIT
2. Leonard Fournette, JAC
3. Alvin Kamara, NO
4. Derrick Henry, TEN
5. Devonta Freeman, ATL
6. Dion Lewis, NE
7. Jerick McKinnon, MIN
8. Jay Ajayi, PHI
9. Mark Ingram, NO
10. Tevin Coleman, ATL
11. Latavius Murray, MIN
12. Rex Burkhead, NE
13. LeGarrette Blount, PHI
14. James White, NE
15. Chris Ivory, JAC
16. DeMarco Murray, TEN
17. Corey Clement, PHI
18. T.J. Yeldon, JAC
19. Stevan Ridley, PIT
20. Derrick Coleman, ATL
21. Kenjon Barner, PHI
22. Zach Line, NO
23. C.J. Ham, MIN
24. Tommy Bohanon, JAC
WIDE RECEIVERS
Antonio Brown at 100 percent makes him a lock for the top spot, even against the vaunted Jacksonville pass defense–you know, the one he took for 10-157 earlier in the season. On paper the Tennessee wide receivers have far and away the easiest fantasy matchup, but with no reliable go-to among their outside targets none crack the top 12.
1. Antonio Brown, PIT
2. Brandin Cooks, NE
3. Adam Thielen, MIN
4. Julio Jones, ATL
5. Michael Thomas, NO
6. Chris Hogan, NE
7. Stefon Diggs, MIN
8. Alshon Jeffery, PHI
9. Mohamed Sanu, ATL
10. Ted Ginn, NO
11. Nelson Agholor, PHI
12. Dede Westbrook, JAC
13. Corey Davis, TEN
14. JuJu Smith-Schuster, PIT
15. Danny Amendola, NE
16. Torrey Smith, PHI
17. Eric Decker, TEN
18. Marqise Lee, JAC
19. Brandon Coleman, NO
20. Martavis Bryant, PIT
21. Rishard Matthews, TEN
22. Allen Hurns, JAC
23. Justin Hardy, ATL
24. Jarius Wright, MIN
25. Keelan Cole, JAC
26. Nick Williams, ATL
27. Kenny Britt, NE
28. Taylor Gabriel, ATL
29. Jaydon Mickens, JAC
30. Willie Snead, NO
31. Andre Roberts, ATL
32. Phillip Dorsett, NE
TIGHT ENDS
Playoff teams tend to defend tight ends well; in fact, only one remaining team ranked in the top half of the league in fantasy points allowed to the position. Fortunately for Gronk, it was the Titans–as if he needs additional help.
1. Rob Gronkowski, NE
2. Zach Ertz, PHI
3. Delanie Walker, TEN
4. Kyle Rudolph, MIN
5. Austin Hooper, ATL
6. Jesse James, PIT
7. Marcedes Lewis, JAC
8. Josh Hill, NO
9. Trey Burton, PHI
10. Vance McDonald, PIT
11. Levine Toilolo, ATL
12. David Morgan, MIN
13. Jonnu Smith, TEN
14. Jacob Hollister, NE
15. Michael Hoomanawanui, NO
16. Ben Koyack, JAC
DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS
Another reliable facet of playoff teams: they don’t give up much in the way of D/ST fantasy scoring. Again, only one team ranks outside the stingiest dozen clubs in that regard–and again it’s to the benefit of the Titans. Of course, the Nick Foles-led Eagles might be more prone to turnovers than the Carson Wentz-led version if Philly insists on having Foles throw 38 passes a game like he’s been doing.
1. Patriots DST, NE
2. Jaguars DST, JAC
3. Vikings DST, MIN
4. Steelers DST, PIT
5. Falcons DST, ATL
6. Eagles DST, PHI
7. Saints DST, NO
8. Titans DST, TEN
PLACEKICKERS
Yet again the most favorable fantasy matchup plays to the Patriots’ favor, as the Titans have allowed a point and a half more per game to opposing kickers than any other squad left in the postseason. After that, it comes down to which offenses are good enough to move the ball on these stout remaining defenses yet not quite able to punch it into the end zone. When you’re counting by threes instead of ones, that’s when the kicker points start adding up.
1. Stephen Gostkowski, NE
2. Kai Forbath, MIN
3. Will Lutz, NO
4. Matt Bryant, ATL
5. Jake Elliott, PHI
6. Chris Boswell, PIT
7. Josh Lambo, JAC
8. Ryan Succop, TEN
by Tony | Jan 6, 2018 | 2017 Season, I Said, He Said, NFL Picks, NFL Playoffs
Atlanta Falcons at Los Angeles Rams – Saturday, January 6th, 2018 – 7:15PM kickoff
Andy: The NFC games are a bit more interesting to me than the AFC games this weekend. That starts with tonight’s game, with a couple of explosive offensive teams matching up in Los Angeles, which hasn’t hosted a postseason game since the 1985 season, when Eric Dickerson was chewing up yards on the ground and Dieter Brock was adding 50-or-so passing yards per game. The passing game should be a bit more prolific this year than it was more than 30 years ago. But this game, in my eyes, has the greatest potential for upset this weekend. Atlanta hasn’t been great, but Matt Ryan has been around the block a few more times than Jared Goff. The Falcons are beat up a bit, but I think they make this a game.
Tony: The NFC Wildcard matchups are certainly more compelling to me, at least on paper. The Falcons overcame the Super Bowl curse, to make it back to the playoffs (not actually that uncommon–the 2016 Panthers were actually the first Super Bowl losing team to miss the playoffs altogether since the 2008 Patriots, who lost Tom Brady in the first game of the season). But they did so in ugly, ugly fashion–at least offensively. Defensively was a different story–the Falcons actually improved significantly on the defensive side, ranking 9th in yards/game (vs 25th in 2016), 9th in Rushing yards/game (17th), 12th in passing yards/game (28th), and 8th in points/game (27th). All while being a shockingly low 27th (tied) overall in turnovers, with just 16. That could spell trouble for Todd Gurley, Jared Goff and the no-name receiving corps of the Rams. The question this year, though, is if the Falcons offense will show up.
Andy: The defense is definitely on the upswing. And there is a lot of talent on offense too. However — and maybe this had to do with how good it looked last year — but the offense looked strangled quite a bit this year. More likely, I think, is that Steve Sarkisian is simply no Kyle Shanahan when it comes to running an offense. Matt Ryan regressed. The tandem of Freeman and Tevin Coleman was not utilized as well this year. Julio Jones basically had three big games. It just never seemed like they were anywhere near on track for any stretch of time. Add in that Jones, Freeman and center Alex Mack are all beat up heading into the game and, even though I think this game is the most ripe for an upset of the weekend’s slate, I will not be picking said upset to take place.
Tony: Another question mark for the Rams–aside from the youth of their team AND their coaching staff–is the atmosphere in Los Angeles. Despite playing at the Coliseum–which seats over 93,000–the Rams were second to last in terms of home attendance for playoff teams (ahead of the Steelers, inexplicably). The Rams cracked 70,000 fans in just one home game, against the Cardinals – add in that the Rams were only 4-4 at home this year, and being at home for the playoffs might not really be that big of an advantage.
Andy: So, again, I’m not going to pick the upset, but this is a little bit of a coin toss to me. I’ll go Rams 27, Falcons 23.
Tony: One other wildcard…in the…wildcard…the Rams have six All-Pros on their team–but they might be missing one of their most important All-Pros, with kicker Greg “the Leg” Zuerlein out. Can they trust Sam “Kicken'” Ficken? Falcons 27, Rams 22.
Carolina Panthers at New Orleans Saints – Sunday, January 7th, 2018 – 3:40PM kickoff
Andy: The biggest threat of any team playing on Wild Card Weekend to advance beyond next week is the New Orleans Saints, though there’s no guarantee they get past Carolina on Sunday. While conventional wisdom says it’s hard to beat a team three times in a season, I learned by listening to the “Bet the Board” podcast this week that of the 20 teams faced with such a challenge over the years, 13 have done so. That said, the Saints don’t come into this game at full strength. The defense has suffered some injuries, with pass rusher Alex Okafor and safety Kenny Vaccaro among those missing the rest of the season. This is where Drew Brees comes in. The team has transitioned this year away from relying on his arm as much. But if I’m going into a tight playoff situation, there isn’t a QB playing in Wild Card Weekend I’d rather rely on to get me through than Drew.
Tony: The Saints also have possibly the most intriguing 1-2 punch in their backfield in the league, with Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara–not to mention Michael Thomas. The Saints finally seemed to level things out this year between the offense and defense–but those injuries are a huge concern. The Panthers, on the other hand, seem to have had more ups and downs than a Vegas callgirl–from beating the Patriots to losing to the Bears, then back to beating the Vikings. Cam Newton is the heart and soul of the team–but that can be just as bad of a thing as a good. Especially against the Saints, whom he hasn’t really played well against since 2015.
Andy: Yep, that’s what I like about the Saints this season. Need to run the ball? Ingram or Kamara. Need to pass the ball? Thomas. Need another target? Brees is smart enough to find one. Tricky defense that makes it look like you need to run, then gives you a look that makes you need to pass? Kamara and Ingram combined for 139 catches this season. Kamara actually had more yards as a receiver than as a rusher. Ted Ginn had 53 catches. This offense is as dangerous as it has ever been and it’s more diversified than ever too.
Tony: The one thing that might concern me most about New Orleans on the offensive side is their OL–especially their interior line, which didn’t grade out that well on PFF. When the Panthers beat the Vikings, one of the main reasons for their success was that the Vikings interior line was jumbled, due to the loss of Pat Elflein. If the Saints can’t block the Panthers interior DL, that could start to make things even more interesting.
Andy: Yeah, and while the Saints have MORE weapons than the Panthers do, it’s not like Cam Newton has never been there before. And he does have Greg Olsen. And Christian McCaffery. And Devin Funchess and Jonathan Stewart. Some of these guys are new to the playoffs, and some are perhaps past their prime, but they are all capable of stretching defenses and giving the Saints problems. I suspect the game ends up something like Saints 28, Panthers 20. But it should be a compelling game and the winner will actually be able to give its opponent next week a ballgame too, which is more than can be said for this weekend’s AFC contenders.
Tony: I’ll go with a final score of 31-27 in this one…I’m just not real sure who to pick as the winner. Just to keep things interesting, I guess I’ll go with the Panthers.
by Tony & Andy | Jan 6, 2018 | 2017 Season, I Said, He Said, NFL Picks, NFL Playoffs
Tennessee Titans at Kansas City Chiefs – Saturday, January 6th, 2018 – 3:35PM kickoff
Tony: This might be the biggest mismatch of the first round of the playoffs. The Chiefs have had stretches of looking unbeatable and stretches of looking incapable, but there wasn’t any point in the season that I looked at the Titans and thought “That’s a playoff team.”
Andy: I suppose if anyone in this mediocre AFC field is going to disrupt the predestined Patriots-Steelers AFC Championship game, it’s going to be the Chiefs. The rest of the field is pretty mediocre in comparison. I will be picking the Chiefs. But your assessment assumes that the unbeatable Chiefs show up. If the incapable Chiefs resurface Saturday, Tennessee has a shot. DeMarco Murray is unlikely to play, giving the superior back, Derrick Henry, a chance to get the lion’s share of the carries against a deficient Kansas City defense. And, while he’s regressed this year, it’s not like Marcus Mariota hasn’t performed on the big stage before.
Tony: The same deficient defense that gave up 13-13-15 in the last three games of the season that mattered? They’re not the best defense in the league, but in Week 15 they held Phillip Rivers to 227-1-3, and Melvin Gordon to just 78 yards rushing–an offensive combination that I think most would rather have today then Mariota-Henry. Meanwhile, the Titans have a tough run defense (like the Chiefs), but the Chiefs can attack through the air with Travis Kelce, Kareem Hunt and Tyreek Hill, who I don’t think the Titans have an answer for. On the Titans side, other than Delanie Walker, I’m not sure I could name the Titans leading receiver.
Andy: Oh, I’m not saying I think the Titans are going to win – maybe not even keep it close. I was just stating that the Chiefs, statistically, have a lacking defense and that Tennessee *could* take advantage of it. That said, I think it’s the Chiefs game to lose.
Tony: I think they win big: Chiefs 27, Titans 13
Andy: Chiefs 30, Titans 17
Buffalo Bills at Jacksonville Jaguars – Sunday, January 7th, 2018 – 12:05 PM kickoff
Tony: The main reason I think the Chiefs/Titans matchup is the biggest mismatch of the postseason is more because I’m not willing to say that I think the Jaguars will clean up against the Bills, which seems to be the leading pick. Like the Titans, the Bills never looked like a playoff team this year–particularly with the Nathan Peterman experiment. But the Jaguars are a young team, that has also had its fair share of rough games. Their lack of playoff experience–and lack of a playoff atmosphere (where there will reportedly be a lot of Buffalo fans making the trek to Florida) could make it a more interesting game than most predict.
Andy: I agree, this is easily the worst match-up of the postseason, with one team in because it’s young and talented, but not consistently good yet and another that is in because, by rule, the AFC is required to field six playoff teams. I think this could be an ugly, low-scoring game that puts people to sleep. I’ll probably spend a good chunk of the game working. Jacksonville’s defense should remain great, especially if LeSean McCoy is limited or out. But I’m surprised at the spread in this one, given that both teams have question marks at QB and on offense as a whole.
Tony: The Jaguars defense definitely should win them this game–especially with the presence of veteran All-Pro Calais Campbell. But Blake Bortles alone makes them a hard team to put that much faith in. He was great when he was holding a lead this season, but unlike most seasons, when he excelled in garbage time, he was terrible this season when trailing–so if the Bills can figure out how to jump out to an early lead, it could spell doom for the Jags.
Andy: It could. But how do you figure Buffalo is going to get out to a lead? They won four out of nine games down the stretch coming in. Three of the four wins were against Miami twice and Indianapolis. The pass game is bad. The run game is going to be bad if McCoy can’t play. If I was betting this game, I’d be taking the under rather than betting on the spread.
Tony: Early pick 6 by the Bills defense? They aren’t a great unit, but they did score three defensive touchdowns this year, and Bortles did throw 5 of his 13 interceptions in the last two weeks of the season. And as great as the Jags defense is, they gave up 44 points to the San Francisco 49ers in Week 16, including 130 yards and 3 TDs on the ground, and over 100 yards to the combination of Kyle Juszczyk and George Kittle. Like you with the Titans, I’m not going to go out on a limb and predict a Bills win–I just don’t think it’s the laugher that most outside of Buffalo seem to expect.
Andy: Jaguars 16, Bills 3
Tony: I’ve got Jags 17, Bills 13.
Thoughts? Comments? Think we’re idiots? Let us know in the comments below.
Loading ...
Paul we’ll just see what happens
Pretty certain even regardless of rules, Belichick will be in class of 2027
Paul I guess I wouldn’t have a problem with that I wouldn’t mind if Bill Belichick went in with Tom…
Robert I have a link to the petition in the first post
Thats what im thinking Paul wouldnt it save time if they just combined coaches and contributors into one category