Bet the Mortgage: Super Bowl 2015-16 – Best Bets

by | Feb 4, 2016 | 2015 season, NFL Gambling, NFL Playoffs, Super Bowl

So what I’ve been doing wrong all season is betting on point spreads and money lines and not spending enough time weekly-betsbetting over/unders.

Well, it’s obviously not that simple, but I largely got it right in the conference championship games – though I would have gotten the spread wrong on Carolina/Arizona. I really thought the Cardinals were at least going to put up a better fight.

Nonetheless, two big bets ran my season total back into the black, albeit only slightly. Here are the standings:

Starting $$ Conf record Conf wk $$ Playoff record Current $$
Andy $6,472 2-0 +$3,722 4-5-1 $10,194

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What match-up do you want to see?

by | Jan 23, 2016 | 2015 season, NFL Playoffs, NFL Random Thoughts

Conventional wisdom and the folks in Vegas are predicting a Carolina-New England Super Bowl. I wouldn’t have a huge issue with that – the Patriots were the league’s best team for the first three-quarters of the season before injuries set them back a bit. The Panthers have proven that even with a soft schedule, they are legit.

Truth be told, though, I’d prefer to see a couple different story lines play out. Peyton Manning is a shell of the QB he used to be, but I do have a soft spot for seeing legends go out on top. I’d also like to see guys like Carson Palmer and Larry Fitzgerald rewarded for their years of toil on mostly bad to average teams.

What is your preferred match-up? Vote and then tell us why below.

What Super Bowl match-up would you like to see?

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Bet the Mortgage: Conference Championship Round 2015-16 – Best Bets

by | Jan 23, 2016 | 2015 season, NFL Gambling, NFL Playoffs

Well, that went bad in a hurry. Looking at nothing but the scores, it would appear I at least came close to having a weekly-betswinning week, but in reality that’s not true. Kansas City’s five minute drive while down two scores at the end of the Patriots game ensured I had no chance at covering that spread. The Seahawks money line bet only missed by a TD, but Seattle was down 31 at half – there was no point after the first 15 minutes where I felt I would win that one.

Even my draw – the over/under push on the Steelers/Broncos game – did nothing more than show how freakishly good the NFL is at setting point spreads and over/under numbers.

So after a couple good weeks put me ahead for the year, I’m now substantially down again – though still not as bad as Tony, who remains at least temporarily in pretend hiding for his substantially brutal results during the season.

  Starting $$ Division wk rec Division wk $$ Playoff record Current $$
Andy $11,472 0-3-1 – $5,000 2-5-1 $6,472

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Playoff Power Rank 2015 – Championship round

by | Jan 23, 2016 | 2015 season, NFL Playoffs, Power rankings

It’s Championship game weekend. Who makes it to the Super Bowl?

John Vomhof Jr. ranks his favorites for the weekend. He did pretty well last week. Do you disagree with any of his picks?? Tell us why.

Prior Rank Team Record Comments
1 Carolina Panthers 15-1 Cam Newton and the Panthers absolutely dominated the first half against a superb Seahawks team before letting their foot off the gas in the second half. They’ve been the NFL’s best team all season long, and there’s no reason to bet against them now.
3 Arizona Cardinals 13-3 Carson Palmer and the Cards struggled a bit last week, nearly blowing a lead to the Packers. But Arizona has now won 10 of their last 11 games, and the club’s strong showing in OT should help it get its swag back.
4 New England Patriots 12-4 The Patriots appeared to be in prime postseason form last week, dispatching the red-hot Chiefs. But they’ll have to play even better if Brady & Co. hope to dispatch a Broncos club that boasts a Super Bowl-caliber defense.
5 Denver Broncos 12-4 Denver survived a tight battle against a battered Pittsburgh club last week, and Peyton Manning actually played pretty well down the stretch. Still, they’ll need to rely on their stellar defense–and homefield advantage–to carry them past the Pats this week.

NFL Picks 2015: Conference Championship round

by | Jan 21, 2016 | 2015 season, NFL Picks, NFL Playoffs

The road teams ruled the wild card round. Home teams came back with a vengeance in the divisionals.weekly-picks

It was a four-game sweep, with Tony and John hitting them all.

Anthony hit three of four. Andy foolishly thought the road dominance would continue. He was 1-3. Here are the standings:

Last week Playoffs
John Vomhof Jr 4-0 7-1
Tony 4-0 6-2
Maggio 3-1 6-2
Andy 1-3 5-3

And here’s who we think is winning this weekend: (more…)

Playoff Power Rank 2015 – Divisional round

by | Jan 15, 2016 | 2015 season, NFL Playoffs, Power rankings

The wild card weekend home teams fall out of the running. We’re down to eight.

John Vomhof Jr. again attempts to break down the rankings of the rest of the best. Let us know if you agree or disagree.

Prior Rank Team Record Comments
1 Carolina Panthers 15-1 Cam Newton and the Panthers enjoyed a first-round bye after turning in a near-perfect regular season. They’re still the team to beat this postseason, but the Seahawks are an awfully tough draw.
2 Seattle Seahawks 10-6 The Seahawks barely advanced out of the Wild Card round, but they’ll need more than an Angels in the Outfield-style miracle to get past the Panthers. Still, they’ve been to back-to-back Super Bowls, and they ended the regular season red-hot.
4 Arizona Cardinals 13-3 The Cardinals won nine straight before dropping the season finale to Seattle, and now they draw a mediocre Packers squad. Carson Palmer and the Cards pounded the Packers 38-8 last time around, and it could be more of the same this time around.
3 New England Patriots 12-4 Although the Patriots limped into the postseason, it’s really hard to bet against Belichick and Brady at this time of the year. Kansas City will be a tough test, but the Pats should be able to sneak by.
5 Denver Broncos 12-4 Denver’s defense is capable of carrying this club deep into the postseason, and they lucked out by drawing a battered Steelers team this week. The only question is whether Peyton Manning can hold up.
6 Kansas City Chiefs 11-5 The Chiefs are the NFL’s hottest team, winning 11 straight games, including last week’s Wild Card romp of the Texans. They should be able to give the struggling Pats a run for their money.
12 Green Bay Packers 10-6 The Packers beat up on the Redskins last week, but they’ll have to play even better to get past Arizona. I’m not sure they have it in them this year.
7 Pittsburgh Steelers 10-6 Unfortunately, the Steelers are just a shell of themselves at this point, with Antonio Brown out and Ben Roethlisberger ailing. It’s hard to see them pulling off the upset shorthanded.