Bet the Mortgage: Divisional Round 2015-16 – Best Bets

by | Jan 15, 2016 | 2015 season, NFL Gambling, NFL Playoffs

The Wild Card round went much as I expected, with five and six seeds in both conferences proving to be superior to the third- and fourth-seeded division winners.

That meant for a solid round of picks. It didn’t translate to bets, however, as the point spreads in Vegas proved to be as difficult to manipulate as ever.

I did go 2-2, hitting two bets on over/under numbers. They’ve come in handy all season – I haven’t been able to get spreads right, but the numbers have been slightly easier.

So here’s where I stand (Tony, as you may recall, is in hiding, trying to avoid more hypothetical broken bones over losing twice his allotted bankroll for the season).

  Starting $$ Wild card record Wild card $$ Current $$
Andy $11,568 2-2 – $96 $11,472

The games get a bit tougher this week. I doubt I go undefeated in picks. Bets … who the hell knows. But here goes: (more…)

NFL Picks 2015: Divisional round

by | Jan 14, 2016 | 2015 season, NFL Picks, NFL Playoffs

The regular season champ ran into some difficulty last week with his picks. Tony went just 2-2, due in large part to his faith in Cincinnati.

Everyone else sensed the Bengals’ meltdown coming. Andy nailed the Green Bay win over Washington, to finish with the week’s only perfect record.

Wild card round Record
Andy 4-0
Maggio 3-1
Vomhof 3-1
Tony 2-2

Where the road teams swept last week, most expect a resurgence of home team dominance in the divisional round.

Here’s who we’re picking. (more…)

Bet the Mortgage: Wild Card Round 2015-16 – Best Bets

by | Jan 8, 2016 | 2015 season, NFL Gambling, NFL Playoffs

Tony fell into an even deeper hole when his two big bets didn’t hit last week, so he’s gone into pretend hiding for the weekly-betsoffseason as he attempts to avoid having his legs broken by his hypothetical guy.

His rough season came to an end with a loss of more than $20,000.

My bets weren’t exactly stellar throughout the year – more on this in a later post – but a solid finish to the season put me up a little over $1,000 for the season.

With Tony suddenly MIA, I’ll be going solo on the bets throughout the playoffs. Here’s where we stand right now.

Last week Last week $ Overall Overall $ Bankroll
Andy 3-1 + $2,809 32-35-1 + $2,809 $11,568
Tony 2-2 – $6,548 29-38-1 – $27,343 – $17,343

There are four really interesting games on slate for this weekend. Here’s how I see them playing out:

(more…)

NFL Picks 2015: Wild Card round

by | Jan 7, 2016 | 2015 season, NFL Picks, NFL Playoffs

Ok, it’s been 17 weeks and the riffraff has been eliminated. It’s down to 12. And this week’s wild card round has four weekly-pickssolid, interesting games on the slate. Tony won the regular season pick segment. Can he keep it up in the playoffs?

Here’s who we think wins this weekend:

Andy Tony John Maggio
Saturday, January 9
Kansas City at Houston Kansas City Kansas City Kansas City Kansas City
Pittsburgh at Cincinnati Pittsburgh Cincinnati Pittsburgh Pittsburgh
Sunday, January 10
Seattle at Minnesota Seattle Seattle Seattle Seattle
Green Bay at Washington Green Bay Washington Washington Washington

Maggio’s Take: There’s not a game here I’m not excited to watch for various reasons. Even the teams that “snuck” (more…)

2015 NFL Playoff Preview/Predictions

by | Sep 13, 2015 | 2015 season, I Said, He Said, NFL Playoffs, NFL Random Thoughts

Andy: So I have Indy, Denver, New England and Baltimore winning divisions in the AFC and Seattle, Green Bay, Carolina and Dallas winning in the NFC. I’ll give Arizona, Minnesota, Pittsburgh and Miami wild cards, with Marvin Lewis and Chip Kelly being two guys whose failures to make the playoffs will result in hotseats at the season’s end.

I think there are probably three teams in each conference I see as truly strong contenders for the Super Bowl, but I’ll give Indy and Seattle homefield advantages at this point, the Colts because they have clear sailing through a weak division and the Seahawks because though they are slightly flawed in some areas, including starting two converted defensive linemen on their offensive line, I think they still have the strongest defense in the NFC and you can’t beat their postseason experience from the last few years.

Tony: In the NFL, most years it seems that about half of the teams from the previous season’s playoffs don’t make it back. You’ve really gone out on a limb, predicting that a total of TWO teams from last year (Cincinnati and Detroit) won’t make it back, including a grand total of one new division winner (Baltimore in the AFC North).

Meanwhile, I have a much more respectable 5 new teams in the playoffs, with Indy, New England, Denver and Cincinnati winning the AFC divisions and Kansas City and Miami grabbing the wildcards, and Green Bay, Seattle, Dallas and New Orleans winning the NFC divisions, and Minnesota and Philadelphia grabbing wildcards.

I don’t know if I really believe all of that, but it makes me look better on paper, so I’m sticking to it for now.

Realistically, in the AFC, I’m not sure if I think anyone other than Indianapolis or New England can get to the Super Bowl, although even those teams have flaws—Indianapolis on the offensive line and defense, and New England their terrible knack for cheating at every opportunity they find. (more…)