2013 Football Hall of Fame Inductees

As the excitement of the announcement of the Class of 2012 has subsided, and we’re getting ready to welcome potential members of the Hall of Fame Class of 2030 (give or take) into the league, it’s time to once again start to lay out our projections for the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2013.

First, a real quick recap of the non-senior committee 2012 finalists:

Inducted Into the Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2012:

Dermontti Dawson
Chris Doleman
Cortez Kennedy
Curtis Martin
Willie Roaf

Final five candidates not inducted:
Bill Parcells
Cris Carter
Charles Haley
Andre Reed
Aeneas Williams

Rest of the Final 15 not included:
Jerome Bettis
Tim Brown
Edward DeBartolo Jr.
Kevin Greene
Will Shields

In your average year, we make the assumption that any of the finalists that are eligible to return will make the finalists list again the following year. However, there are a few candidates in 2013 that may not, for various reasons:

Bill Parcells – Normally there is no way one of the top 10 guys fall off the list, unless they reach the senior candidate stage. But normally these guys aren’t flirting with resuming their careers either. Parcells is reportedly the top choice of Sean Payton to replace him during his one year suspension, which would kick Parcells back off the list. Just the rumors that Parcells might take the job alone might force him down, even if he doesn’t end up taking the job.

Edward DeBartolo Jr. – Depending on who you ask, DeBartolo is a fringe candidate for the Hall at best, especially given the circumstances around his departure from the league. With a strong class coming in, he might struggle to make the top 15 again.

Kevin Greene – Greene is a player that a lot of people have mentioned in the years we’ve been doing Hall of Fame predictions, but strictly from the eye-test, he’s always felt like a fringe player to us. Then again, frankly Richard Dent, John Randle, Cortez Kennedy and Chris Doleman would have been in that same category, and all four of them have been chosen. But if the class is strong enough, Greene might face some difficulties.

As mentioned above, the list of players eligible for the first time in 2013 is relatively strong—although that might end up working against some of them, as they possibly could split votes since many played similar positions.

The list is headed by:

Guard/Tackle Larry Allen – 11 Pro Bowls, six first-team All-Pro selections, All-Decade 90’s & 00’s
Tackle Jonathan Ogden – 11 Pro Bowls, four first-team All-Pro selections, All-Decade 00’s
Defensive Tackle Warren Sapp – seven Pro Bowls, four first-team All-Pro selections, All-Decade 90’s & 00’s
Defensive End Michael Strahan – seven Pro Bowls, four first-team All-Pro selections, All-Decade 00’s

Also on the list:
Defensive Lineman Bryant Young
Safety John Lynch
Running Back Priest Holmes
Quarterback Steve McNair
Kicker Morten Andersen

Any of the first list could arguably be first year inductions, and almost assuredly will be finalists. The second set will have a more difficult time, but still could easily make the final 25. A couple might sneak into the final 15.

Finally, we’ve got to look at the list of 11 (due to a tie) semifinalists that didn’t make it last year:

Steve Atwater
Don Coryell
Roger Craig
Terrell Davis
Clay Matthews
Karl Mecklenburg
Donnie Shell
Paul Tagliabue
Steve Tasker
Ron Wolf
George Young

Not a terribly strong list of semifinalists, with a special teamer, a couple of good but not great linebackers that were in the running for the first time last year and a few contributors that don’t strike us as likely inductees in the near term. So, our list of predicted 2013 Pro Football Hall of Fame Finalists:

Larry Allen
Morten Andersen
Jerome Bettis
Tim Brown
Cris Carter
Kevin Greene
Charles Haley
John Lynch
Jonathan Ogden
Andre Reed
Warren Sapp
Will Shields
Michael Strahan
Aeneas Williams
Ron Wolf

That gives us five first time finalists and only one contributor on the list. And plenty of questions:

  • Will the voters finally start to clear up the waiting list at WR with Brown, Carter and Reed, and Marvin Harrison coming into the picture next year?
  • With three strong offensive linemen on the list, and Walter Jones breathing down their neck in 2014 (not to mention Kevin Mawae, Chris Samuels and Orlando Pace joining the list the couple years after), do one or two make it, or do their votes cancel each other out and create another log jam?
  • Similar scenario with defensive linemen, where Haley, Sapp and Strahan could be competing for votes?

This year, we’ve decided to make separate picks here at Zoneblitz, and will finally officially make a contest where readers can submit their picks.

Our 2013 Pro Football Hall of Fame Inductees:

Andy Tony
Larry Allen Cris Carter
Jonathan Ogden Andre Reed
Charles Haley Larry Allen
Cris Carter Aeneas Williams
John Lynch Charles Haley

Andy: It’d be unusual for multiple offensive linemen to get elected. But it happened in 2011 with two great candidates and I think in 2012 the nominees are too good to ignore. Will Shields deserves to get in but he will have to wait one more season, as the profiles of Allen and Ogden are both slightly more impressive, especially if using Super Bowl rings as a tiebreaker (I’m also hoping to see former Packers guard Jerry Kramer get another shot at the Hall as a senior candidate, which might make it that much more difficult for Shields to get in this year).

Charles Haley was a weird and possibly troubled dude while playing in the NFL, if you believe what you read. And his profile, at five Pro Bowls and two first place All Pro lists, is less than I would have expected. But you can’t argue with results. He helped San Francisco get to Super Bowls. And then when he went to Dallas, the Cowboys went to Super Bowls. Haley is a hall of famer.

I do believe the Hall of Fame voters will feel the pressure of rising criticism toward their inability to get at least one of the wide receivers into the Hall. Reed seems to have the lead in terms of support. It’s my belief that Brown has a slight edge in deserving to be enshrined first, though I think he probably ultimately will be the last of the three. I’m guessing voters ultimately move toward Carter with the other two following in the next few years. If the voters fail at this again, then I think a spot opens for Jerome Bettis to join the class of 2013. As it is, I see him waiting one more year.

The fifth spot was tough. I think Shields is the most deserving, but that would buck two trends: Too much of a slant toward offensive players and too many offensive linemen. So unfortunately he waits one more year. I’ll go with John Lynch being the surprise enshrinee. He went to nine Pro Bowls. He only has two All Pro selections. But he helped a once-embarrassing Tampa Bay franchise make the Super Bowl. And he’s part of an era where safeties gained tremendously in prominence. I think we’ll see this position honored more and more as guys like Ed Reed and Troy Polamalu hang ’em up.

Tony: I was all over the board this year with my choices. At one point or another I’ve had Bettis, Brown, Ogden, and Shields all making it—and I think all are going to get there. In fact, Shields probably deserved it last year, although I think if Randall McDaniel had to wait until year three, all guards should have to wait. Ogden could also easily claim a first year entry, but in the end I don’t see the non-glamor positions getting more than one guy in two years in a row. I was tempted to go really crazy and put all three wide receivers in one class—I do think that the criticism over not putting in any last year reached a new level, and at least some voters will feel obligated to “correct” this.

In the end, I left Bettis and Brown off because they didn’t make the final 10 this past year. In fact, this may be overall one of the safest sets of picks out there, with four of the five picks being from the final 10 in the 2012 class (with Parcells being the odd one out. We left him off our finalist list, assuming he will not be eligible).

So who are your picks? Let us know in the comments below.

Voters, fans frustrated with Hall of Fame announcement

Well, the 2012 season is over. By and large the Twittersphere would seem to indicate that people are reasonably satisfied with the Super Bowl they just finished watching. New York and New England put on quite a show again as Tom Coughlin and Eli Manning once again edged out Tom Brady and Bill Belichick in an exciting game that came down to the last play.

That result seemed more satisfying to people than the results of Saturday’s Pro Football Hall of Fame voting. From the exclusion of Cris Carter, Andre Reed, Bill Parcells and Will Shields to the inclusion of Cortez Kennedy or Chris Doleman, most fans seemed to be upset about something – and with the immediacy of the Internet, many of them decided to let the voters know they were upset.

Some spewed epithets. Others called for entirely new voting panels. Most would benefit their arguments by at least spelling correctly the names of the candidates they support … but I digress.

At least a couple of voters invited discussions with the fans, acknowledging both the voters’ frustrations and, notably in some cases, even their own. Peter King from Sports Illustrated noted that all six players who were selected ultimately deserve to be inducted to the Hall – and on that I agree with him. There isn’t anyone going to Canton in 2012 who I would argue does not belong there. (more…)

Pro Football Hall of Fame Class of 2012 announced

The Pro Football Hall of Fame’s 50th class will include modern-era candidates Dermontti Dawson, Chris Doleman, Cortez Kennedy, Curtis Martin and Willie Roaf.

Joining them at the Aug. 4 induction ceremony will be senior Jack Butler, a senior nominee.

The Steelers fared particularly well, with Dawson and Butler entering the Hall. Dawson played center for Pittsburgh from 1988 to 2000. Butler was a four-time Pro Bowl defensive back for them from 1951 to 1959.

Doleman was an eight-time Pro Bowl defensive end for Minnesota, San Francisco and Atlanta from 1985 to 1999. Kennedy spent his entire 11-year career with Seattle. He made eight Pro Bowls during that span.

Five-time Pro Bowler Martin played split his 11-year between New England and the New York Jets. He ran for 14,101 yards and reached the 1,000 yard mark during his first 10 years in the league. And Roaf was a dominant left tackle for New Orleans and Kansas City during a 13-year career that included 11 Pro Bowls.

The new class was selected by a 44-person selection committee Saturday afternoon in Indianapolis. The group was announced this evening on the NFL Network’s Road to Canton show.

Other finalists included Cris Carter, Charles Haley, Andre Reed, Aeneas Williams, Bill Parcells, Tim Brown, Jerome Bettis, Kevin Greene, Will Shields, former San Francisco 49ers owner Edward DeBartolo Jr. and Dick Stanfel, a second senior nominee.

The new class helps reduce an abundance of offensive linemen that will only get deeper starting next year when Larry Allen and Jonathan Ogden become eligible.

Perhaps surprising is that the class does not reduce the long list of wide receivers attempting to gain entry to the Hall. Carter, Brown and Reed will soon face additional competition from other star wideouts, such as Marvin Harrison, Terrell Owens and Randy Moss become eligible in years ahead.

The committee’s decision to not enshrine Haley and Parcells this year was mentioned by some analysts as surprising.

The selection committee had narrowed the field to 15 modern era finalists in January. Before that they had reduced the list to 26 from an original group of 105 preliminary nominees.

Stanfel and Butler were nominated in August 2011. Senior nominees are selected by a special committee that reviews the qualifications of players whose careers ended more than 25 years ago. Unlike the modern-era candidates, who are discussed and winnowed throughout the process, senior nominees move directly to the finalist vote.

We predicted in November that Reed, Roaf, Dawson, Martin and Parcells would get in from the modern-era nominees. Several readers posted their guesses today.

Last year’s inductees were Richard Dent, Marshall Faulk, Chris Hanburger, Deion Sanders, Shannon Sharpe, Les Richter and Ed Sabol, the man who started NFL Films.

Pro Football Hall of Fame: Class of 2012 Picks

Announcement day has arrived, we’re less than 12 hours from knowing who has made the cut. I’m not sure if we’ll find out which of the 15 finalists make the cut to 10 in advance of the 5:30 announcement show or not, but hopefully you’ll check back with us here for more discussion around this year’s class.

And, of course, our Class of 2013 predictions, which we promise will be posted a lot sooner than November this time around.

Below are the final 2012 hall of fame class predictions that we’ve been able to scrape from the comments–let me know (tony(at)zoneblitz.com or in the comments section) if you’d like to be added to the list…

Zoneblitz Martin Dawson Roaf Reed Parcells Stanfel Butler
Billy Martin Dawson Carter Reed Haley Stanfel Butler
Brad Martin Dawson Roaf Reed Kennedy Stanfel Butler
Paul Martin Dawson Roaf Reed Kennedy Stanfel Butler
BSLO Martin Dawson Parcells Reed Kennedy Stanfel Butler
Robert Ewing Martin Doleman Roaf Reed Haley Butler
Chris Martin Dawson Doleman Reed Kennedy Stanfel Butler
boknows34 Martin Dawson Roaf Reed Kennedy Stanfel Butler

Comparing likely Hall of Famers: Brown, Carter & Reed

We’re getting close to learning who the 2012 inductees will be in the Pro Football Hall of Fame this August. Much of the discussion on one of our other Hall of Fame posts revolves around which of the three wide receiver finalists — or whether any of them — will get chosen for the honor this season.

Four-time finalist Andre Reed seems to have gained the most momentum, based on his near miss last season. Three-time finalist Cris Carter and one-time finalist Tim Brown are the other two wideouts in the mix for this year’s honor.

The Pro Football Hall of Fame Website did a comparison of these three players and how they fared up against the other 21 wideouts already enshrined in Canton, Ohio. But I wanted to do some analysis of my own.

Let me start with this. All three of these guys had great careers and they definitely are strong candidates, at least in the eyes of Zoneblitz. They all would be in the top five in receiving yards, touchdowns and receptions among receivers already in the Hall. Even as we move into a heavy passing era, Reed, Carter and Brown all continue to match up strongly with the other candidates they’ll be compared with in the near future.

But as the competition gets stronger in the years ahead, as guys like Marvin Harrison, Randy Moss, Torry Holt, Terrell Owens and a host of others retire, it’s going to be more and more challenging for the current group of finalists to get in. That makes the voting over the next couple years that much more important. And frankly, after doing some analysis, I think the current wide receiver finalists might be gaining momentum in the wrong order.

(more…)

Hall of Famer Ward? Hines looking at retirement

This could be turning into a pretty good year for big-name retirements. There’s Jason Taylor for sure. Seems LaDainian Tomlinson is considering hanging it up. And if reports from around the Interwebs are true, Steelers wideout Hines Ward is about to say goodbye to the NFL, as well. (EDIT: Or perhaps not …)

Taylor and Tomlinson would seem to be sure thing inductees into the Pro Football Hall of Fame at this point. But Ward is an interesting case. He’s close — right on the borderline either way. His numbers were very, very good, but was he that good? Or did he benefit from playing in the NFL as the game — and the long-time run-heavy Steelers — transitioned more and more toward the pass? (more…)