I consider myself a fairly capable fantasy football player and I’ll put my history up against that of nearly anyone else. But a couple seasons ago I was stumped. I entered the championship game on a roll, having won seven of nine matchups including my semifinal game a week earlier.

But during that game my running backs were decimated with injuries and I was left with little more than waiver-wire options to stock my lineup with for Championship Sunday.

I had a couple ideas but thought I could use some additional guidance – so for the first time ever I emailed the guys at Fantasy Football Weekly, billed as the longest-running show on KFAN-AM radio in the Twin Cities (the show starts up again this Saturday, Aug. 2, at 10 a.m. central time and is podcast-able shortly afterward by clicking “Fan on Demand” at www.KFAN.com).

Paul Charchian, co-host of Fantasy Football Weekly and now founder of LeagueSafe®, and his colleagues recommended I pick up and start both Ron Dayne and Michael Pittman, one at running back and the other in a flex-position. They scored 18 and 9 points respectively helping me to a 64-63 win that netted a nice championship check and bragging rights over a group of east coasters wondering why a country bumpkin from the midwest was even in their league.

A few weeks ago Charchian noticed a post on this site and when contacted by Zoneblitz he graciously agreed to answer some questions and share his thoughts on what to expect during the season ahead.

Zoneblitz: Peterson or Tomlinson (or someone else) with the top pick in the draft and why?

Paul Charchian: There is no player in the NFL that I’d rather watch than Adrian Peterson. But, it’s Tomlinson, and it’s not close. Tomlinson’s consistency is unparalleled at the position. I’m a big fan of drafting guys I can count upon, week in and week out. Tomlinson’s hasn’t had a bad season since…uh…never. He’s never had less than 10 touchdowns, and he’s averaging 2070 yards from scrimmage since his rookie year. Unreal!

Zoneblitz: What players at QB, RB, WR/TE do you see as potential under-the-radar guys who could really bust out with big fantasy seasons?

Charchian: (Average Draft Position data courtesy of MockDraftCentral.)
QB – Jake Delhomme. ADP QB ranking: 17. Charch’s ranking: 11.
When healthy, he’s a great quarterback, and his rehab from elbow surgery is going fine. A quick refresher of last year’s pre-injury stats: in 2.75 games, he racked up eight touchdown passes with just one interception. He’s got a plethora of receiving options, including three new options in Mushin Muhammad, DJ Hackett, and Jonathan Stewart who is getting tons of receptions in training camp.
RB – Jonathan Stewart. ADP RB ranking: 29. Charch’s ranking: 18.
Yes, another Panther. People are actually shying away from Stewart because of DeAngelo Williams? Really? While a dynamic runner, Williams hasn’t shown anything to suggest that he’ll be a fantasy factor. Stewart will run behind an improved line, he’s clearly the goal line guy, and John Fox loves to pound the ball whenever possible.
WR – Jabar Gaffney. ADP WR ranking: 52. Charch’s ranking: 29.
Gaffney made a strong move at the tail end of last season, displacing a lot of Donte Stallworth’s playing time, and eventually making Stallworth expendable in the offseason. Gaffney scored in four of the Patriots’ final six regular season games, and added another touchdown in the playoffs. He certainly was trending toward fantasy viability at the end of last year. Those solid numbers came despite the presence of Wes Welker and Randy Moss. Think of what could happen if the increasingly brittle Moss were to go down.
TE – Donald Lee. ADP TE ranking: 17. Charch’s ranking: 8.
Lee turned a corner in the second half of last season, catching five touchdowns in the final seven games. His improvements led to Bubba Franks being cut in the offseason, which opens the door for Lee’s full time use this year. Even with Franks on the roster last year, Lee caught a pass in every game, and caught multiple passes in 13 games. Inexperienced quarterbacks, like Aaron Rogers, tend to dump off to their safety valve tight end.

Zoneblitz: Who do you see at those same positions being potential busts this season?

Charchian:
QB – Matt Hasselbeck. ADP QB ranking: 8. Charch’s ranking: 17.
Hasselbeck is a good quarterback, but there is such an alarming dearth of surrounding talent that I can’t envision him delivering consistent fantasy points. First, there’s no running game to keep defenses honest. No, Julius Jones doesn’t help in any real way. Opponents will key on Hasselbeck in every game. His offensive line was lousy last year, and the addition of Mike Wahle doesn’t improve it—just ask Jake Delhomme/Matt Moore/Vinny Testaverde/David Carr. Lastly, his receivers get hurt a lot, and none of them are a true No. 1.
RB – Earnest Graham. ADP RB ranking: 18th RB. Charch’s ranking: 34.
Concerns abound. Jon Gruden has repeatedly described the Bucs running back situation as RBBC. Warrick Dunn and Michael Bennett will play a role, and Caddy lurks as a second-half vulture. Gruden has a long history of RBBC, going back to his Oakland days. Remember Zack Crockett stealing goal line carries? In general, Tampa’s offense is already shaky, but what happens if Garcia goes down? Can Brian Griese really power an already aged, wobbly offense? Luke McCown? Chris Simms? Lastly, Graham’s new contract was very team friendly. Anyone who thinks the Bucs will use him because they paid him isn’t familiar with his deal.
WR – Jerricho Cotchery. ADP WR ranking: 31. Charch’s ranking: 51.
What am I missing here? He’s the No. 2 receiver on a team with horrible quarterbacking. How does he crack the top 32? Doesn’t every NFL team have someone better than Cotchery? As a starter for the better part of three years, he’s averaged 2.6 touchdowns per year. Sure, he’s caught 82 passes the last two years, which gives him a smidgeon of PPR value, but enough to be ranked 31? He failed to top 60 yards eight times last year. I don’t see enough improvement on the Jets roster to account for the public’s fascination with him.
TE – Vernon Davis. ADP TE ranking: 8. Charch’s ranking: 15.
Let’s start by looking at his resume to date. Injuries? Check. Invisible stat lines? Check. Inconsistent performances? Check. Gee, sounds great so far! But, that’s the past. Let’s look ahead. Davis has gained an offensive coordinator who doesn’t know that the tight end position is on the field. In a recent interview, Mike Martz acknowledged that his offenses don’t highlight tight ends, and that he doesn’t expect that to change (although Martz says that he hopes Davis’ YPC will improve). And, then there’s the team’s dreadful quarterback position. Shawn Hill and Alex Smith should be battling to see who gets to do my taxes; not who gets to lead an NFL offense.

Zoneblitz: You’ve long espoused the “Do the Opposite” strategy that I so mediocre-ly described on the blog a few weeks back – can you give us a quick synopsis of the strategy?

Charchian:
“Do The Opposite” got its name from the episode of Seinfeld in which George Costanza is so fed up with his life that he begins doing the exact opposite of everything that he’s done in the past. And, sure enough, upon doing so—wham—he gets a girl friend and gets hired by the Yankees.

Everyone clamors for running backs in the first few rounds—especially the first round. Owners with the balls to implement an Opposite Draft will eschew runners for a whopping four rounds. In the first three rounds, you’ll take receivers, quarterbacks, and even tight ends. Then, with a bunch of elite players at the other positions, in the middle rounds, you’ll take a string of runners.

Although I could talk about it for hours, I’ll limit myself to two key planks in my position:

First, runners are more prone to injury and disappointment than any other position. Most readers will understand this intrinsically. But here’s some data for those that need convincing. Looking at the top 10 running backs taken in drafts over the last four years (data gathered from MDC again), only 15 scored double digits. Meanwhile, 15 runners had disastrous seasons, scoring six or fewer touchdowns. Nearly all of the top-10 runners were taken in the first rounds. So, getting six or fewer touchdowns from a top-10 runner is, indeed, disastrous.

The other positions, namely receiver and quarterback, however, had far fewer failures. Of the top 10 non-runners drafted over the past four years, only eight (!) failed to score seven or more touchdowns. And 14 scored double digits—just one fewer than the coveted “elite” runners.

Second, you can find sleeper runners in the middle rounds. Yes, you can. If I gave you, yes you, four cracks at a sleeper running back in rounds 4, 5, 6 and 7, couldn’t you find one, if not two, solid contributors? Of course you can.

Heck, you can even find solid contributors off the waiver wire. Ryan Grant, anyone? Think he was a fluke? How about Earnest Graham, Justin Fargas, Ron Dayne, and Derrick Ward? All were solid contributors for long stretches of the season, and none were drafted in your league.

And, you’re already stacked at the other positions, because you spent the first three rounds collecting elite players. So, when your sleepers/free agent runners hit, you’re sitting with a powerhouse team.

Zoneblitz: In most reasonably standard scoring formats when would be an appropriate time to bust out the Do the Opposite strategy this season?

Charchian: This year, it’s “game on” for a Do The Opposite draft beginning with pick six, after the five big runners are off the board. You know who they are.

Zoneblitz: Are there any rookies you think can have an immediate fantasy impact?

Charchian: See Jonathan Stewart above. Matt Forte and Kevin Smith could both be the primary runners for their teams, which is significant, too. I’d dive into them, but I’m already at like 1,500 words. Sheesh!

Zoneblitz: If Brett Favre does play this season are there teams he could go to where you think he would have a fantasy impact on the players that he would be around?

Charchian: Since he’s not going to New England or Indy, Favre will have a positive effect on every team he’d likely play for. Minnesota would be fascinating, since defenses won’t know who to guard against, Adrian Peterson or Brett Favre.

Zoneblitz: Do you have a pre-season Super Bowl pick?

Charchian: It’s boring, but I’m leaning toward Indy. The returns of Dwight Freeney and Marvin Harrison are huge.

Zoneblitz: You co-founded Fanball.com. Now you’ve got something called Leaguesafe.com – what is this venture?

Charchian: LeagueSafe® is an on-line escrow service that secures and manages fantasy leagues’ finances. In a nutshell, it’s PayPal for fantasy leagues. In the preseason, league fees are deposited in a FDIC-insured bank account, where they stay throughout the season. At the end of the year, LeagueSafe® returns 100% of the league fees to the league. LeagueSafe® greatly simplifies and streamlines finance management, deposits, and payments. It’s free!