Last year I was in Las Vegas in July for a conference as teams were preparing to head to training camp. I loved almost every move New England made, from trading for Randy Moss and Wes Welker to adding Adalius Thomas and Donte’ Stallworth. Coming off their disappointing early playoff exit the year before the Patriots dominated the offseason and put themselves in a position to not only contend, but dominate.

I put small futures bets down on the Patriots to both win the AFC and the Super Bowl and as the Patriots steamrolled through the regular season undefeated I felt very good about my bets.

Well, one of those bets turned out well and the other I narrowly lost. I can live with that – that’s why they call it gambling.

But as the 2008 season approaches – and my next Vegas trip is a mere 10 days away – I have no strong feelings yet about who will emerge as this year’s Patriots.

I had started leaning ever-so-slightly toward San Diego. With LaDainian Tomlinson on offense they’ll always be a competitor. But the Norv Turner factor coupled with ongoing toe pain currently being endured by Antonio Gates kept me from truly jumping on the bandwagon. He’s just recently started participating in team workouts.

And now with the news of Shawne Merriman’s two torn knee ligaments, I wonder if the Chargers’ chances of competing for a Super Bowl championship are fading even before they begin.

Merriman has to sit out the season – he’s been told by doctors, according to ESPN, that if he plays this year without fixing the problems he could end his career. Any other decision, while perhaps impressive from the perspective of showing toughness and loyalty to teammates and fans, would be stupid for a player who has the potential to be one of the best in the game for a long, long time.

My next choice had been Indianapolis. But that team has question marks as well. Is Peyton Manning’s bursa sac recovery going well? Can Marvin Harrison come back? Will Bob Sanders stay healthy, thereby allowing the Colts defense to stay top-notch? If everything goes well it’s probably the most complete team in the AFC. But there are considerable ifs in play.

In the NFC the Dallas Cowboys are, from top-to-bottom, probably the most complete team, especially if Adam “Douchebag” Jones gets reinstated. Marion Barber is the unquestioned starter at running back now with Felix Jones likely a solid second option. They probably could use another wide receiver, but any team with Terrell Owens and Jason Witten as its top two receiving options will be able to throw the ball.

The Tony Romo-factor – he’s produced fantastically early in the season but fallen short in crunch time the past two seasons – makes me nervous, however. I’m not sure I want to bet on him until he shows more late.

I’m also impressed with what the New Orleans Saints have done this offseason, adding Sedrick Ellis, Jonathan Vilma and Bobby McCoy to a defense that struggled big-time last season and adding Jeremy Shockey to an offense that really looks imposing – keep an eye out on Robert Meachem, fantasy owners.

But they lack a proven running game. I expect Reggie Bush to improve some but he’s not a 20-carry, between-the-tackles guy and Deuce McAllister’s return from yet another knee injury makes it questionable whether that guy is on the team. If Deuce is done, the team could go with a combination of Aaron Stecker and Pierre Thomas, but nobody is going to shake in their boots over that duo.

Finally, you can’t ignore the defending champs – the team that got hot at season’s end, eventually costing me a few bucks during last year’s Super Bowl. The Giants bring back the bulk of the offense they brought to the big game. But they lost Michael Strahan and now Osi Umenyiora had his knee lock up in Saturday’s preseason tilt with the Jets. I like the Giants to do well this year, but it’s so, so hard to repeat – especially since they likely weren’t the best team overall in the NFL last year.

At the end of the day I’m probably left with the Patriots again. Stallworth is gone, but Jabar Gaffney had taken over much of his third receiver role by season’s end anyway. The trio of Laurence Maroney, Lamont Jordan and Sammy Morris can probably equate to enough of a running game to keep the passing game top-notch.

The defense lost Asante Samuel but the Patriots have successfully played cut-and-paste with their defensive backs for awhile now and rookie linebacker Jerod Mayo has reportedly been impressive in the early going.

So if nothing changes before my plane lands at McCarran International Airport in 10 days I’ll probably repeat the same bet I made last year heading into the season: New England in the AFC, New Orleans in the NFC and New England to win it all. But that pick will be made with much less certainty and confidence than it was a year ago.

So who do you, the ever-growing legion of Zoneblitz readers, like heading into the regular season? And give some real reasons – none of this “I like so and so because they’re awesome” or “So and so won’t win it because they suck.” Give some real thoughts. If you’re convincing I might still be willing to change my bet.